Friday, November 08, 2013

Wrestling Observer Awards and Wrestling Observer HOF - exploring connections

This year's Wrestling Observer Hall of Fame inductions brought Henri Deglane, Dr. Wagner Sr., Atlantis, Kensuke Sasaki, Hiroshi Tanahashi and All Japan Women's Pro Wrestling promoters Takeshi Matsunaga and his brothers into the elite ethereal HOF.


While only one of my picks (Matsunaga) got in, most of my picks (Rock & Roll Express, Brock Lesnar, Dick Murdoch, Edge, Gene Okerlund, Jimmy Hart) finished respectably on the ballot except for Batista who received less than 10% of the vote and is going to be dropped off next year's ballot.

Hiroshi Tanahashi's quick ascension and successful election places an interesting spotlight on other young, modern wrestlers that are soon to join the ballot.  While John Cena was a logical 2012 inductee (top star in the world's largest and most successful modern pro-wrestling company for many consecutive years), upcoming candidates for future years will include CM Punk, Daniel Bryan (f.k.a. American Dragon/Bryan Danielson) and possibly Mistico (currently Sin Cara in WWE).

As voters try to examine the record of these wrestlers considering factors such as drawing power, working ability and promo skills, one reference source to consider would be the results from the annual Year-End Wrestling Observer Awards (1980-2012).  In theory, many benchmarks for the career of these new HOF candidates could be captured in how they finished in the WO Awards spotlight.

I've been working on aggregating as many of the results (not just winners, but also the runner-ups) for the annual Wrestling Observer Awards since 1980 through 2012 on my pro-wrestling statistics webpage: https://sites.google.com/site/chrisharrington/mookieghana-prowrestlingstatistics/wo_awards_history

While not every single category has been offered every year, there are some important categories which have very rich histories which we can examine:

Top Tier
WRESTLER OF THE YEAR: 33 years
TAG TEAM OF THE YEAR: 33 years
BEST ON INTERVIEWS: 32 years
MOST CHARISMATIC: 33 years
MOST OUTSTANDING WRESTLER: 27 years
BEST BOX OFFICE DRAW: 16 years

Mid-Tier
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 33 years
BEST FLYING WRESTLER: 32 years
BEST BRAWLER: 33 years
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: 33 years
MOST UNDERRATED: 33 years
MOST IMPROVED: 33 years
BEST GIMMICK: 27 years
BEST HEEL: 17 years
BEST BABYFACE: 17 years
READERS´ FAVORITE WRESTLER: 20 years

Non-Wrestlers
BEST TELEVISION ANNOUNCER: 32 years
BEST NON WRESTLING PERFORMER: 28 years
BEST BOOKER: 27 years
PROMOTER OF THE YEAR: 25 years
BEST COLOR COMMENTATOR: 11 years

Information
Data covered 1980-2012 looking at the top 5 finishes (winner + 4 runner-ups) whenever possible.  Points were awarded as follows: 1st place = 10 points, 2nd place = 4.64 points, 3rd place = 2.78, 4th place = 1.98 and 5th place = 1.58.  This seemingly arbitrary relationship was designed so that each sequential value was the cuberoot of the former place squared (i.e. 2nd place = (10*10)^(1/3) = 4.64).  To the best of my ability names were combined over years (i.e Dustin Rhodes = Goldust = Black Reign).
TOTAL was calculated as TOP*2 + MID + OTHER.

NAME TOP MID OTHER  TOTAL  HOF?
Ric Flair:  312.1 pts (56 awards) 181.2 pts (31 awards) 7.1 pts (3 awards)      812.5 YES
Steve Austin:  134.7 pts (20 awards) 86 pts (17 awards) 10 pts (1 awards)      365.4 YES
Jim Cornette:  69.2 pts (11 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 220 pts (40 awards)      358.4 YES
The Rock:  161.3 pts (27 awards) 34.9 pts (8 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)      357.4 YES
Kenta Kobashi:  161.2 pts (30 awards) 27.7 pts (9 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)      350.0 YES
Hulk Hogan:  106 pts (19 awards) 105.9 pts (13 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)      317.9 YES
Mitsuharu Misawa:  116.7 pts (19 awards) 49.3 pts (11 awards) 27.6 pts (11 awards)      310.4 YES
John Cena:  140.5 pts (24 awards) 16.6 pts (3 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)      297.6 YES
Chris Benoit:  48.3 pts (13 awards) 198 pts (40 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)      294.5 YES
Bryan Danielson:  72.8 pts (13 awards) 104.6 pts (16 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)      250.1 NO
Jushin Liger:  46 pts (8 awards) 135.9 pts (21 awards) 16.2 pts (3 awards)      244.1 YES
Chris Jericho:  90.7 pts (23 awards) 59.3 pts (14 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)      240.7 YES
Mick Foley:  49.1 pts (9 awards) 132.1 pts (20 awards) 5.5 pts (3 awards)      235.7 YES
Paul Heyman:  24.7 pts (9 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 181.8 pts (35 awards)      231.3 YES
Kurt Angle:  70.9 pts (13 awards) 87.7 pts (18 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)      229.5 YES
Vince McMahon:  1.6 pts (1 awards) 4.6 pts (1 awards) 220 pts (53 awards)      227.8 YES
Jim Ross:  0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 186.3 pts (26 awards)      186.3 YES
Shawn Michaels:  68.8 pts (17 awards) 35.6 pts (12 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)      173.1 YES
Eddie Guerrero:  74.7 pts (15 awards) 15.3 pts (7 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)      164.7 YES
Bobby Eaton:  41 pts (7 awards) 69.1 pts (15 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)      151.1 YES
CM Punk:  54.8 pts (14 awards) 32.6 pts (7 awards) 2.8 pts (1 awards)      144.9 NO
Rey Mysterio Jr:  20.6 pts (5 awards) 101.6 pts (16 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)      142.7 YES
Riki Choshu:  22.2 pts (5 awards) 6.3 pts (3 awards) 83.7 pts (16 awards)      134.4 YES
Brock Lesnar:  46.8 pts (8 awards) 37.8 pts (6 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)      131.4 NO
Toshiaki Kawada:  59.2 pts (15 awards) 1.6 pts (1 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)      119.9 YES
Roddy Piper:  43.2 pts (7 awards) 29.1 pts (6 awards) 2.8 pts (1 awards)      118.4 YES
Manami Toyota:  35.8 pts (9 awards) 44.9 pts (14 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)      116.6 YES
Sting:  32.7 pts (8 awards) 49.3 pts (11 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)      114.6 NO
Akira Maeda:  35.3 pts (8 awards) 18.5 pts (7 awards) 25.3 pts (7 awards)      114.5 YES
Giant Baba:  0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 111.4 pts (19 awards)      111.4 YES
Hiroshi Tanahashi:  53.4 pts (10 awards) 4 pts (2 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)      110.8 YES
Great Muta:  36.9 pts (14 awards) 29.9 pts (7 awards) 4 pts (2 awards)      107.7 YES
Mistico:  39.2 pts (9 awards) 29 pts (5 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)      107.3 NO
Atsushi Onita:  26.7 pts (5 awards) 46.1 pts (9 awards) 2 pts (1 awards)      101.5 YES
Terry Gordy:  36.7 pts (7 awards) 26.5 pts (7 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)      100.0 YES
Bob Sapp:  43.9 pts (6 awards) 11.6 pts (2 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        99.4 NO
Dana White:  4 pts (2 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 84.6 pts (9 awards)        92.6 NO
Edge:  39 pts (11 awards) 13.6 pts (4 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        91.6 NO
Ted DiBiase:  12.7 pts (6 awards) 63.7 pts (14 awards) 1.6 pts (1 awards)        90.6 YES
Jerry Lawler:  17.6 pts (6 awards) 11.3 pts (5 awards) 41.2 pts (10 awards)        87.7 YES
Bruiser Brody:  2.8 pts (1 awards) 82.1 pts (10 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        87.6 YES
Samoa Joe:  23.4 pts (6 awards) 39.9 pts (8 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        86.6 NO
Shinjiro Otani:  26.9 pts (8 awards) 28.1 pts (8 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        81.9 NO
Jun Akiyama:  33.6 pts (5 awards) 14.4 pts (3 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        81.5 NO
Mike Tenay:  0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 77.7 pts (13 awards)        77.7 NO
Michael Hayes:  19.5 pts (6 awards) 20 pts (2 awards) 18.7 pts (6 awards)        77.7 YES
Kenta:  35.6 pts (7 awards) 6.3 pts (3 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        77.6 NO
Road Warrior Hawk:  30.3 pts (7 awards) 15.9 pts (4 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        76.5 YES
The Undertaker:  3.6 pts (2 awards) 68.3 pts (10 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        75.4 YES
Vader:  15.9 pts (4 awards) 43.5 pts (11 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        75.4 YES
Terry Funk:  16.7 pts (4 awards) 40.8 pts (10 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        74.2 YES
Davey Richards:  29.3 pts (4 awards) 14.8 pts (4 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        73.4 NO
Road Warrior Animal:  28.7 pts (6 awards) 15.9 pts (4 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        73.3 YES
Stan Hansen:  12.8 pts (2 awards) 46.6 pts (11 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        72.2 YES
Naomichi Marufuji:  32.2 pts (7 awards) 7.5 pts (4 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        71.8 NO
Bobby Heenan:  2 pts (1 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 67.1 pts (14 awards)        71.0 YES
Steve Williams:  15.5 pts (4 awards) 36.3 pts (6 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        67.4 YES
Tatsumi Fujinami:  17.4 pts (3 awards) 32 pts (4 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        66.8 YES
Owen Hart:  9.3 pts (2 awards) 47.7 pts (10 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        66.3 NO
The Miz:  19.4 pts (4 awards) 26.6 pts (4 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        65.4 NO
Dynamite Kid:  11.6 pts (2 awards) 42.1 pts (6 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        65.2 YES
Rick Steiner:  20.2 pts (5 awards) 24.6 pts (3 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        65.0 NO
Triple H:  21 pts (5 awards) 22.6 pts (7 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        64.6 YES
Bret Hart:  17.2 pts (6 awards) 29.8 pts (10 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        64.2 YES
Jimmy Snuka:  17.5 pts (5 awards) 25.5 pts (5 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        60.5 NO
Gabe Sapolsky:  0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 60.4 pts (11 awards)        60.4 NO
Lance Russell:  0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 58.5 pts (11 awards)        58.5 YES
Brian Pillman:  10 pts (1 awards) 38.5 pts (9 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        58.5 NO
Arn Anderson:  29.2 pts (8 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        58.3 NO
Tiger Mask:  7.5 pts (3 awards) 42.8 pts (5 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        57.9 YES
Sabu:  11.3 pts (3 awards) 34.9 pts (11 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        57.4 NO
Stan Lane:  26.2 pts (4 awards) 1.6 pts (1 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        54.0 YES
Jesse Ventura:  0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 53.9 pts (7 awards)        53.9 NO
Scott Steiner:  20.2 pts (5 awards) 13.4 pts (5 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        53.7 NO
Kevin Steen:  11 pts (4 awards) 31.6 pts (4 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        53.5 NO
Christian:  14.4 pts (3 awards) 23.3 pts (6 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        52.0 NO
Hiroshi Hase:  7.4 pts (2 awards) 26 pts (6 awards) 10 pts (1 awards)        50.9 YES
Joe Silva:  0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 50.3 pts (9 awards)        50.3 NO
Jay Briscoe:  21.3 pts (6 awards) 6.7 pts (3 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        49.4 NO
Jeff Hardy:  15.5 pts (4 awards) 18.2 pts (4 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        49.2 NO
Jimmy Hart:  12.8 pts (2 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 22.8 pts (3 awards)        48.3 NO
Shelton Benjamin:  6.6 pts (2 awards) 34.8 pts (5 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        48.0 NO
Mark Briscoe:  21.3 pts (6 awards) 4.8 pts (2 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        47.5 NO
James Storm:  23.8 pts (6 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        47.5 NO
Joey Styles:  0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 47.3 pts (9 awards)        47.3 NO
Santino Marella:  11.3 pts (3 awards) 23.6 pts (4 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        46.1 NO
Nobuhiko Takada:  9.4 pts (3 awards) 24.1 pts (7 awards) 1.6 pts (1 awards)        44.5 YES
Christopher Daniels:  15.9 pts (4 awards) 12.2 pts (4 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        44.1 NO
Matt Hardy:  10.9 pts (3 awards) 21.9 pts (6 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        43.6 NO
Dusty Rhodes:  10 pts (1 awards) 12.8 pts (2 awards) 10 pts (1 awards)        42.8 YES
Koji Kanemoto:  17.9 pts (5 awards) 5.1 pts (3 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        41.0 NO
Juventud Guerrera:  1.6 pts (1 awards) 37.3 pts (9 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        40.5 NO
Art Barr:  10 pts (1 awards) 19.4 pts (4 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        39.4 NO
Kota Ibushi:  0 pts (0 awards) 39.3 pts (5 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        39.3 NO
AJ Styles:  5.6 pts (2 awards) 27.5 pts (6 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        38.6 NO
Shane Douglas:  12.1 pts (3 awards) 14 pts (4 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        38.2 NO
Perro Aguayo:  10.2 pts (3 awards) 17.4 pts (3 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        37.8 YES
Gedo:  2.8 pts (1 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 31.8 pts (6 awards)        37.3 NO
Yuji Nagata:  11.3 pts (5 awards) 14.3 pts (6 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        37.0 NO
Jado:  2.8 pts (1 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 30.2 pts (5 awards)        35.8 NO
Tatsuhito Takaiwa:  12.8 pts (2 awards) 10 pts (1 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        35.6 NO
Goldberg:  11.4 pts (4 awards) 12.8 pts (2 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        35.5 NO
Gordon Solie:  0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 35.1 pts (6 awards)        35.1 YES
John Morrison:  12 pts (2 awards) 11 pts (4 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        34.9 NO
Homicide:  10 pts (1 awards) 14.8 pts (3 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        34.8 NO
Chael Sonnen:  17.4 pts (3 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        34.8 NO
Dean Malenko:  0 pts (0 awards) 34.6 pts (7 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        34.6 NO
GSP:  17.2 pts (6 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        34.4 NO
Eddie Gilbert:  0 pts (0 awards) 12.8 pts (4 awards) 21 pts (5 awards)        33.8 NO
Chavo Guerrero Sr:  10 pts (1 awards) 13.4 pts (5 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        33.4 NO
Eric Bischoff:  0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 32.9 pts (7 awards)        32.9 NO
Nigel Mcguinness:  5.9 pts (3 awards) 16 pts (5 awards) 4.6 pts (1 awards)        32.5 NO
Prince Devitt:  10.3 pts (5 awards) 11.8 pts (4 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        32.4 NO
Chris Harris:  16.2 pts (3 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        32.4 NO
Vickie Guerrero:  0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 32.1 pts (5 awards)        32.1 NO
Ultimo Guerrero:  16 pts (5 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        32.0 NO
Rey Bucanero:  16 pts (5 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        32.0 NO
Joe Rogan:  0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 31.9 pts (7 awards)        31.9 NO
Ultimo Dragon:  0 pts (0 awards) 25.2 pts (6 awards) 6.3 pts (3 awards)        31.6 YES
Ricky Steamboat:  14.4 pts (3 awards) 2.8 pts (1 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        31.5 YES
Dragon Kid:  0 pts (0 awards) 31.1 pts (7 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        31.1 NO
Takeshi Morishima:  1.6 pts (1 awards) 27.9 pts (6 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        31.1 NO
Harley Race:  14.8 pts (3 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 1.6 pts (1 awards)        31.1 YES
Kazushi Sakuraba:  15.5 pts (4 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        31.1 YES
Evan Bourne:  0 pts (0 awards) 31 pts (6 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        31.0 NO
Satoshi Kojima:  14.4 pts (3 awards) 1.6 pts (1 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        30.3 NO
Chris Sabin:  9.3 pts (2 awards) 11.6 pts (2 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        30.1 NO
Hernandez:  10 pts (1 awards) 10 pts (1 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        30.0 NO
Akira Taue:  14.8 pts (4 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        29.7 NO
Terry Taylor:  0 pts (0 awards) 26.7 pts (5 awards) 2.8 pts (1 awards)        29.5 NO
Dolph Ziggler:  0 pts (0 awards) 29 pts (5 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        29.0 NO
Alex Shelley:  9.3 pts (2 awards) 10.3 pts (5 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        28.9 NO
Tony Schiavone:  0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 28.8 pts (7 awards)        28.8 NO
JBL:  4 pts (2 awards) 10 pts (1 awards) 10.9 pts (3 awards)        28.8 NO
Brad Armstrong:  0 pts (0 awards) 28.7 pts (6 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        28.7 NO
Buzz Sawyer:  0 pts (0 awards) 28.7 pts (6 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        28.7 NO
Marty Jannetty:  14.4 pts (3 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        28.7 NO
Perro Aguayo Jr:  9.1 pts (4 awards) 10 pts (1 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        28.2 NO
Marc Mero:  0 pts (0 awards) 27.8 pts (5 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        27.8 NO
Dan Kroffat:  7.8 pts (3 awards) 11.6 pts (2 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        27.2 NO
Jumbo Tsuruta:  12.8 pts (2 awards) 1.6 pts (1 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        27.1 YES
Kazuchika Okada:  7.4 pts (2 awards) 12 pts (2 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        26.8 NO
Larry Zbyszko:  0 pts (0 awards) 22 pts (3 awards) 4.8 pts (2 awards)        26.7 NO
Necro Butcher:  0 pts (0 awards) 26.7 pts (6 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        26.7 NO
Chigusa Nagayo:  7.1 pts (4 awards) 6.2 pts (2 awards) 5.9 pts (3 awards)        26.4 YES
Genichiro Tenryu:  10.3 pts (6 awards) 4.6 pts (1 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        25.2 YES
Captain Lou Albano:  10 pts (1 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 4.6 pts (1 awards)        24.6 YES
Antonio Cesaro:  10 pts (1 awards) 4.6 pts (1 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        24.6 NO
RVD:  3.6 pts (2 awards) 17.2 pts (6 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        24.3 NO
Tito Ortiz:  12.1 pts (3 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        24.1 NO
Dustin Rhodes:  0 pts (0 awards) 24 pts (4 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        24.0 NO
Dennis Condrey:  12 pts (2 awards) 0 pts (0 awards) 0 pts (0 awards)        24.0 YES

Note, this list contains some MMA personalities either because of cross-over to pro-wrestling, joint categories (such as biggest draw, best on interviews or best promoters) or related to years when pro-wrestling and MMA were not split.

Observations:

* Some members of the HOF had their peak years outside of the context of these awards, so it's not surprising to see them fare poorly on this list.

* Voters seem more likely to reward strong performances by North American territories than Mexican or Japanese companies.  (For instance, HOF member Aja Kong only has two appearances on this list: 1990's #5 Best Brawler and 1991's #4 Best Heel where non-HOF member The Miz finished in the top five for most improved three times, most charismatic once, best on interviews once, best gimmick once and twice among the tag team of the year contenders.)

* One element stressed in HOF eligibility is demonstrating value over a longer period time (as opposed to single short, hot period).  It may be important to balance both total points with years achieving top status.

UNIQUE YEARS APPEARING WITHIN EACH CATEGORY OF AWARDS
NAME
TOP
MID
OTHER
HOF?
Ric Flair
21
16
3
YES
Hulk Hogan
14
12
0
YES
Kenta Kobashi
13
8
0
YES
Toshiaki Kawada
12
1
0
YES
Jim Cornette
11
0
24
YES
Chris Jericho
11
8
0
YES
Chris Benoit
10
19
0
YES
Mitsuharu Misawa
10
10
7
YES
John Cena
10
2
0
YES
Paul Heyman
9
0
21
YES
Shawn Michaels
9
7
0
YES
The Rock
9
5
0
YES
Bryan Danielson
8
12
0
NO
Sting
8
9
0
NO
Arn Anderson
8
0
0
NO
Mick Foley
7
10
3
YES
Steve Austin
7
9
1
YES
CM Punk
7
7
1
NO
Terry Gordy
7
7
0
YES
Great Muta
7
6
1
YES
Jerry Lawler
6
5
10
YES
Mistico
6
5
0
NO
Eddie Guerrero
6
5
0
YES
Naomichi Marufuji
6
4
0
NO
Edge
6
3
0
NO
Kenta
6
2
0
NO
James Storm
6
0
0
NO
Kurt Angle
5
11
0
YES
Jushin Liger
5
7
3
YES
Atsushi Onita
5
6
1
YES
Shinjiro Otani
5
5
0
NO
Akira Maeda
5
4
4
YES
Brock Lesnar
5
4
0
NO
Scott Steiner
5
3
0
NO
Road Warrior Hawk
5
3
0
YES
Rick Steiner
5
2
0
NO
Jay Briscoe
5
2
0
NO
Jun Akiyama
5
2
0
NO
Genichiro Tenryu
5
1
0
YES
Mark Briscoe
5
1
0
NO
Ultimo Guerrero
5
0
0
NO
Rey Bucanero
5
0
0
NO
GSP
5
0
0
NO
Rey Mysterio Jr
4
13
0
YES
Bret Hart
4
8
0
YES
Bobby Eaton
4
8
0
YES
Steve Williams
4
6
0
YES
Manami Toyota
4
6
0
YES
Roddy Piper
4
5
1
YES
Michael Hayes
4
2
6
YES
Jeff Hardy
4
3
0
NO
Road Warrior Animal
4
3
0
YES
Koji Kanemoto
4
3
0
NO
Kevin Steen
4
3
0
NO
Hiroshi Tanahashi
4
2
0
YES
Stan Lane
4
1
0
YES
El Generico
4
1
0
NO
Akira Taue
4
0
0
NO
Ted DiBiase
3
7
1
YES
Riki Choshu
3
2
11
YES
Yuji Nagata
3
6
0
NO
Samoa Joe
3
6
0
NO
Christian
3
5
0
NO
Matt Hardy
3
5
0
NO
Christopher Daniels
3
4
0
NO
Davey Richards
3
4
0
NO
The Miz
3
4
0
NO
Perro Aguayo
3
3
0
YES
Jimmy Snuka
3
3
0
NO
Shane Douglas
3
3
0
NO
Prince Devitt
3
3
0
NO
Naoya Ogawa
3
1
0
NO
Bob Sapp
3
1
0
NO
Dan Kroffat
3
1
0
NO
Doug Furnas
3
1
0
NO
Harley Race
3
0
1
YES
Chael Sonnen
3
0
0
NO
Tom Prichard
3
0
0
NO
Chris Harris
3
0
0
NO
Bobby Roode
3
0
0
NO
Matt Jackson
3
0
0
NO
Marty Jannetty
3
0
0
NO
Kazushi Sakuraba
3
0
0
YES
Quinton Jackson
3
0
0
NO
Nick Jackson
3
0
0
NO
Stan Hansen
2
10
0
YES
The Undertaker
2
8
0
YES
Vader
2
6
0
YES
AJ Styles
2
6
0
NO
Terry Funk
2
6
0
YES
Owen Hart
2
5
0
NO
Sabu
2
5
0
NO
Shelton Benjamin
2
5
0
NO
Alex Shelley
2
5
0
NO
Dana White
2
0
9
NO
Randy Savage
2
4
1
YES
Nobuhiko Takada
2
4
1
YES
Nigel Mcguinness
2
4
1
NO
Jake Roberts
2
4
0
NO
Tatsumi Fujinami
2
4
0
YES
Santino Marella
2
4
0
NO
Randy Orton
2
3
0
NO
RVD
2
3
0
NO
Dynamite Kid
2
3
0
YES
John Morrison
2
3
0
NO
JBL
2
1
3
NO
Chigusa Nagayo
2
2
2
YES
Johnny Grunge
2
2
0
NO
Rocco Rock
2
2
0
NO
Chris Sabin
2
2
0
NO
Bubba Ray Dudley
2
2
0
NO
Ultimate Warrior
2
2
0
NO
Tiger Mask
2
2
0
YES
Jimmy Hart
2
0
3
NO
Perro Aguayo Jr
2
1
0
NO
Ryusuke Taguchi
2
1
0
NO
Naruki Doi
2
1
0
NO
Kensuke Sasaki
2
1
0
YES
Samson Fuyuki
2
1
0
NO
Satoshi Kojima
2
1
0
NO
Takao Omori
2
1
0
NO
Goldberg
2
1
0
NO
Ricky Steamboat
2
1
0
YES
Jumbo Tsuruta
2
1
0
YES
Tatsuhito Takaiwa
2
1
0
NO
Mirko Cro Cop
2
0
0
NO
Anderson Silva
2
0
0
NO
Cibernetico
2
0
0
NO
Ole Anderson
2
0
0
NO
D-Von Dudley
2
0
0
NO
Jimmy Del Ray
2
0
0
NO
Davey Boy Smith
2
0
0
NO
Wanderlei Silva
2
0
0
NO
Masato Yoshino
2
0
0
NO
Sid Justice
2
0
0
NO
Ashura Hara
2
0
0
NO
Tully Blanchard
2
0
0
NO
John Laurinaitis
2
0
0
NO
Yamato
2
0
0
NO
Dennis Condrey
2
0
0
YES
Mima Shimoda
2
0
0
NO
Toshiyo Yamada
2
0
0
NO
Randy Couture
2
0
0
NO
Etsuko Mita
2
0
0
NO
Vince McMahon
1
1
25
YES
Bruiser Brody
1
8
0
YES
Juventud Guerrera
1
7
0
NO
Brian Pillman
1
7
0
NO
Bobby Heenan
1
0
11
YES
Masato Tanaka
1
6
0
NO
It's possible to take all of this information (years in each category, points in each category, total awards) and run a regression on wrestlers where the y-variable is whether a wrestler is currently in the HOF.

Looking at the top 450 wrestlers among these metrics, the sample has 83 WO Hall of Famers.
The prediction equation is compared against all of the wrestlers.

HOF wrestlers have a median prediction score of 0.33 and an average of 0.43 (25th quartile is 0.16 while 75th quartile is 0.58).  Non-HOF wrestlers have a median prediction score of 0.10 and an average of 0.13 (25th quartile is 0.05 and 75th quartile is 0.16).

There are 18 non-HOF candidates who have prediction score over 0.33 (which was both the median for the HOF wrestlers as well as equal to twice the average of non-HOF plus two standard deviations).

Non-HOF People with Prediction Scores above 0.33
Those strongest candidates are wrestlers Bryan Danielson (0.76), CM Punk (0.61), Sting (0.60), Shinjiro Otani (0.45), Edge (0.42), Mistico (0.41), Samoa Joe (0.38), Sabu (0.37), Brock Lesnar (0.37), Naomichi Marufuji (0.35), William Regal (0.33), Yuji Nagata (0.33), Owen Hart (0.33), and Eddie Gilbert (0.33) whose awards were split between five Best Booker nominations (including one win in 1988) and best heel/brawler/most underrated nods. The non-wrestlers Mike Tenay (WCW/TNA announcer, 0.44), Dana White (UFC promoter, 0.35), Joe Silva (UFC booker, 0.35) and Gabe Sapolsky (ROH/DGUSA booker, 0.38).

Some of these people are already on the ballot (Sting, Brock Lesnar, Yuji Nagata, Owen Hart, Edge).  Others will be eligible in upcoming years (Bryan Danielson, CM Punk, Mistico).  Sabu was eliminated from the ballot in 2010, a fate that originally happened in Sting in 1998 (prior to his return to the ballot following the end of WCW and his in-ring return with TNA).  At this time, it's unlikely that Otani, Samoa Joe, William Regal or Eddie Gilbert will be added to the ballot soon.

As for current HOF wrestlers who have been inducted but have prediction scores 0.33, they were an eclectic mix.

HOF Wrestlers with Prediction Scores under 0.33
Joshi legends: Aja Kong, Akira Hokuto, Bull Nakano, Chigusa Nagayo, Dump Matsumoto
Bookers/Promoters: Antonio Pena, Bill Watts, Paco Alonso, Pat Patterson
Managers:  Captain Lou Albano
Former Champions: Bob Backlund, Harley Race, Dusty Rhodes, Antonio Inoki, Nick Bockwinkel
Announcers:  Dr Alfonso Morales, Gordon Solie
Iconic tag teams:  Midnight Express (Dennis Condrey, Stan Lane), Road Warriors (Road Warrior Hawk & Road Warrior Animal) and Buddy Roberts (from the Freebirds)
Japanese Stars: Genichiro Tenryu, Hiroshi Hase, Jumbo Tsuruta, Masa Saito, Shinya Hashimoto, Tatsumi Fujinami, Tiger Mask, Masa Chono
Mexican Legends: Dos Caras, Perro Aguayo
80s Stars: Randy Savage, Ricky Steamboat, Dynamite Kid

Remaining Characters
2005 induction: Triple H (0.29) = continues to play major storyline (and real backstage) role in WWE along with occasional big match wrestler
2004 induction: Ultimo Dragon (0.28) = induction included his legacy as a trainer (Torymon)
2013 induction: Hiroshi Tanahashi (0.28) = after a huge year in NJPW, his score may dramatically rise when 2013 results are included
2013 induction: Kensuke Sasaki (0.12) = has held IWGP, GHC and AJPW Triple Crown titles; at age 47, continues to wrestle for various groups in Japan
2004 induction: Kazushi Sakuraba (0.14) = the famed "Gracie Hunter" prominently achieved MMA success (especially in Pride) alongisde his Japanese pro-wrestling
2009 induction: Konnan (0.15) = continues to have a major role in running AAA along; inducted for legacy of his major success in mid-90s Mexico

My takeaway from this is the three people who seem to be strongest future candidates are:

BRYAN DANIELSON
MOST UNDERRATED: 5. American Dragon [2001]
READERS´ FAVORITE WRESTLER: 5. American Dragon [2002]
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 4. Bryan Danielson [2003]
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 2. Bryan Danielson (253) 1838 [2004]
MOST OUTSTANDING WRESTLER: 3. Bryan Danielson (52) 617 [2004]
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 1. Bryan Danielson (321) 2,240 [2005]
MOST OUTSTANDING WRESTLER: 1. BRYAN DANIELSON (401) 2,646 [2006]
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 1. BRYAN DANIELSON (593) 3,266 [2006]
WRESTLER OF THE YEAR: 4. Bryan Danielson (83) 947 [2006]
MOST OUTSTANDING WRESTLER: 1. Bryan Danielson (434) - 2,646 [2007]
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 1. Bryan Danielson (529) - 2,928 [2007]
WRESTLER OF THE YEAR: 2. Bryan Danielson (77) - 928 [2007]
MOST OUTSTANDING WRESTLER: 1. BRYAN DANIELSON (325) 2,042  [2008]
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 1. BRYAN DANIELSON (582) 3,231  [2008]
MOST OUTSTANDING WRESTLER: 1. BRYAN DANIELSON (218) 1,838 [2009]
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 1. BRYAN DANIELSON (401) 2,478 [2009]
MOST OUTSTANDING WRESTLER: 1. DANIEL BRYAN (269) 2,037 [2010]
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 1. DANIEL BRYAN (370)2,765 [2010]
BEST GIMMICK: 2. Nexus 79 [2010]
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 1. DANIEL BRYAN (263) 1,829 [2011]
MOST UNDERRATED: 2. Daniel Bryan (112) 840 [2011]
MOST OUTSTANDING WRESTLER: 3. Daniel Bryan (104) 948 [2011]
BEST TECHNICAL WRESTLER: 1. DANIEL BRYAN (391) 2,513 [2012]
TAG TEAM OF THE YEAR: 2. Kane & Daniel Bryan (124) 1,219 [2012]
MOST OUTSTANDING WRESTLER: 3. Daniel Bryan (153) 1,273 [2012]
MOST UNDERRATED: 3. Daniel Bryan (56) 357 [2012]
BEST GIMMICK: 3. Daniel Bryan Yes/No 111 [2012]
WRESTLER OF THE YEAR: 5. Daniel Bryan (5) 204 [2012]
MOST CHARISMATIC: 5. Daniel Bryan (67) 539 [2012]

CM PUNK
BEST GIMMICK: 2. CM Punk [2003]
BEST ON INTERVIEWS: 5. CM Punk [2003]
BEST ON INTERVIEWS: 5. C.M. Punk (43) 619 [2004]
BEST GIMMICK: 5. C.M. Punk straight edge 44 [2004]
BEST ON INTERVIEWS: 2. CM Punk (82) 830 [2005]
BEST GIMMICK: 4. C.M. Punk 39 [2006]
BEST GIMMICK: 1. C.M. PUNK STRAIGHT EDGE SOCIETY 287 [2009]
BEST ON INTERVIEWS: 2. C.M. Punk (205) 1,836 [2009]
WRESTLER OF THE YEAR: 4. C.M. Punk (53) 714 [2009]
BEST TELEVISION ANNOUNCER: 3. C.M. Punk (59)525 [2010]
BEST ON INTERVIEWS: 3. C.M. Punk (85)920 [2010]
BEST GIMMICK: 3. C.M. Punk Straight Edge Society 47 [2010]
BEST ON INTERVIEWS: 1. C.M. PUNK (338) 2,594 [2011]
BEST GIMMICK: 1. C.M. PUNK 160 [2011]
WRESTLER OF THE YEAR: 2. C.M. Punk (248) 2,102 [2011]
MOST CHARISMATIC: 3. C.M. Punk (81) 978 [2011]
BEST BOX OFFICE DRAW: 4. C.M. Punk (2) 273 [2011]
BEST ON INTERVIEWS: 1. C.M. PUNK (365) 2,668 [2012]
WRESTLER OF THE YEAR: 2. C.M. Punk (294) 2,325 [2012]
MOST CHARISMATIC: 4. C.M. Punk (107) 1,032 [2012]
MOST OUTSTANDING WRESTLER: 5. C.M. Punk (34) 469 [2012]
BEST GIMMICK: 5. C.M. Punk all year as champion 58 [2012]

MISTICO
BEST BOX OFFICE DRAW: 2. Mistico (106) 1,303 [2005]
BEST FLYING WRESTLER: 2. Mistico (310) 2,420 [2005]
WRESTLER OF THE YEAR: 4. Mistico (62) 795 [2005]
WRESTLER OF THE YEAR: 1. MISTICO (220) 2,245 [2006]
BEST FLYING WRESTLER: 1. MISTICO (346) 2,957 [2006]
BEST BOX OFFICE DRAW: 1. MISTICO (377) 3,112 [2006]
MOST CHARISMATIC: 5. Mistico (7) 611 [2006]
BEST FLYING WRESTLER: 1. Mistico (162) - 1,394 [2007]
BEST BOX OFFICE DRAW: 3. Mistico (133) - 1,603 [2007]
BEST BOX OFFICE DRAW: 2. Mistico (118) 1,525  [2008]
BEST FLYING WRESTLER: 3. Mistico (115) 1,510  [2008]
BEST BOX OFFICE DRAW: 5. Mistico (16) 227 [2009]
BEST FLYING WRESTLER: 5. Mistico (41) 502 [2009]
BEST BOX OFFICE DRAW: 4. Mistico (3)348 [2010]

In terms of stock, certainly Bryan Danielson has had a stronger year, though he looks to be receiving a recent "de-push" following the release of disappointing SummerSlam PPV numbers and inability to defeat Randy Orton for the title.  Similarly, CM Punk has moved from being part of the top title picture to an extended feud with former manager Paul Heyman to a program working alongside Daniel Bryan against the Wyatt Family.  Mistico, a strong Mexico candidate, has languished in WWE as Sin Cara through his combination of injuries, suspension and disinterest or distrust (for perceived attitude problems) from the company to make him a major player.

All Analysis by Chris Harrington (chris.harrington@gmail.com)

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