Friday, September 26, 2014

WON Awards: Best and Worst Match on the Same Day

jimbob5 asks:
What about best & worst match of the year on the same show? Which surely will happen this year for Summerslam.

Great question. Let's look at the WON Awards archives.

YES, in 1987. 

Match of the year was Ricky Steamboat versus Randy Savage at WrestleMania III. Worst match of the year was Andre the Giant versus Hulk Hogan at WrestleMania III.

As far as I can tell since then no single show has had a match was ranked both MOTY and worst match of the year. However, it's been very close at least three times in the past decade.

Exhibit One: Royal Rumble 2003
5. Scott Steiner defeated Triple H (c) (with Ric Flair) by disqualification (Singles match for the World Heavyweight Championship) 18:14
6. Kurt Angle (c) (with Shelton Benjamin and Charlie Haas) defeated Chris Benoit (Singles match for the WWE Championship) 19:50

It's remarkable that these two matches went back-to-back with similar stips (top titles) and similar length (18-20 minutes).

Angle/Benoit was #2 for MOTY (behind Misawa/Kobashi 3/1/03 Tokyo). Meanwhile, HHH/Steiner won worst match of the year.

Exhibit Two: WrestleMania XXV (4/5/2009)
7. The Undertaker defeated Shawn Michaels (Singles match) 30:41
9. Triple H (c) defeated Randy Orton (Singles match for the WWE Championship)

Taker/Shawn won match of the year (second place was Davey Richards/Shingo Takagi 9/6/09). Meanwhile, HHH/Orton got second place for worst match of the year. However, that year's worst match winner has gone down in history for it's terribleness: TNA's Sharmell VS. Jenna Morasca 7/19/09.

Exhibit Three: WrestleMania XXVI (3/28/2010)
7. Bret Hart defeated Mr. McMahon by submission (No Holds Barred Lumberjack match with Bruce Hart as the special guest referee) 11:09
11. The Undertaker defeated Shawn Michaels (No Disqualification Streak vs. Career match) 23:59

Taker/Shawn repeated MOTY honors with HBK's retirement match. (Second place was Tyler Black vs. Davey Richards 6/19/10)
Meanwhile, the Bret Hart/McMahon was a head-scratching and awful affair. Still, it was only the second worst match of the year in the eye's of voters. Kaitlyn vs Maxine from NXT 10/19/10 was that year's worst offense. I feel that in time people won't remember that terrible NXT match but the stain of McMahon/Hart will stick around in people's minds.

Trivia Note: Clash of the Champions I vs WWF WrestleMania IV on 3/27/88
Clash of the Champions went #1/#2 in the MOTY balloting (Flair/Sting won followed by Midnight Express/Fantastics) in Greensboro.
Meanwhile, up in Atlantic City, WMIV had Warrior/Hercules (finished second for Worst Match of the Year) and Jake Roberts/Rick Rude (finished fifth for Worst Match of the Year). 

Wonder what atrocity won worst match of the year in 1988? All Japan's (Great) Hiroshi Wajima vs (Megaman) Tom McGee (4/21/88).

Friday, September 19, 2014

WWE Records - Last 12 Months (9/16/14 ending)

Analysis: Chris Harrington

I got curious.

Looking at WWE Results from 9/17/2013 to 9/16/2014 (actually, this does include the NXT results from 9/18/2014 too)....

RESULTS (does not include battle royals/rumbles)
More than 200 matches
Cesaro: 212 matches (80-131-1) = 38% win; won the 31 Man Andre the Giant Memorial Battle Royal at WM30
Seth Rollins: 202 matches (89-105-8) = 46% win

More than 175 matches
Roman Reigns: 200 matches (123-69-8) = 64% win; won the MITB Qualifying Battle Royal on Raw
Curtis Axel: 190 matches (36-152-2) = 19% win
Jack Swagger: 187 matches (40-146-1) = 22% win
Dolph Ziggler: 186 matches (107-77-2) = 58% win
Jimmy Uso: 183 matches (145-33-5) = 81% win
Ryback: 182 matches (52-128-2) = 29% win
Luke Harper: 181 matches (52-127-2) = 29% win
Damien Sandow: 180 matches (32-148-0) = 18% win
Dean Ambrose: 178 matches (111-63-4) = 64% win
Jey Uso: 178 matches (142-31-5) = 82% win
Erick Rowan: 177 matches (51-124-2) = 29% win

More than 150 matches
Goldust: 175 matches (118-56-1) = 68% win
Stardust: 173 matches (114-58-1) = 66% win
Big E: 172 matches (111-60-1) = 65% win
Kofi Kingston: 172 matches (71-96-5) = 43% win
Alberto Del Rio: 166 matches (47-117-2) = 29% win
Randy Orton: 164 matches (47-111-6) = 30% win
Fandango: 164 matches (28-134-2) = 17% win
Bray Wyatt: 159 matches (51-107-1) = 32% win; won a dark battle royal in October 2013 at a SmackDown taping
Titus O'Neil: 157 matches (44-111-2) = 28% win

More than 125 matches
John Cena: 150 matches (127-21-2) = 86% win
Natalya: 135 matches (88-47-0) = 65% win
Alicia Fox: 134 matches (19-115-0) = 14% win
R-Truth: 129 matches (67-62-0) = 52% win
Sheamus: 127 matches (106-20-1) = 84% win; won the US Title 20 Man Battle Royal on Raw

More than 100 matches
Rusev: 125 matches (114-10-1) = 92% win
Hunico: 124 matches (65-59-0) = 52% win
Big Show: 120 matches (102-17-1) = 86% win
Miz: 118 matches (39-75-4) = 34% win; won the IC Title Battle Royal at Battleground
Daniel Bryan: 114 matches (85-24-5) = 78% win
Diego: 114 matches (87-26-1) = 77% win
Heath Slater: 108 matches (11-96-1) = 10% win
AJ Lee: 105 matches (46-59-0) = 44% win; won the WWE Divas Title Vickie Guerrero Invitational at WM30
Drew McIntyre: 104 matches (4-98-2) = 4% win
Paige: 102 matches (81-19-2) = 81% win
Fernando: 102 matches (77-24-1) = 76% win
Nikki Bella: 101 matches (79-22-0) = 78% win

More than 75 matches
Bo Dallas: 99 matches (56-42-1) = 57% win
Jinder Mahal: 98 matches (2-94-2) = 2% win
Kane: 97 matches (5-90-2) = 5% win
Bad News Barrett: 93 matches (69-22-2) = 76% win
Brie Bella: 92 matches (67-24-1) = 74% win; won a dark match non-title battle royal on the Tribute to the Troops 2013
Zack Ryder: 89 matches (17-72-0) = 19% win
Aksana: 88 matches (6-82-0) = 7% win
Adam Rose: 86 matches (80-6-0) = 93% win
Naomi: 85 matches (73-10-2) = 88% win
Adrian Neville: 82 matches (67-15-0) = 82% win
Tyson Kidd: 79 matches (26-53-0) = 33% win; won NXT battle royal
Sami Zayn: 78 matches (39-39-0) = 50% win; won NXT battle royal
Cameron: 78 matches (52-25-1) = 68% win
Rob Van Dam: 76 matches (37-36-3) = 51% win; won two battle royals

More than 50 matches
Tamina Snuka: 75 matches (15-60-0) = 20% win; won one battle royal
Emma: 73 matches (56-17-0) = 77% win
Darren Young: 72 matches (46-25-1) = 65% win
Viktor: 70 matches (53-17-0) = 76% win
Konnor: 68 matches (51-17-0) = 75% win
Great Khali: 67 matches (54-12-1) = 82% win
CM Punk: 66 matches (60-4-2) = 94% win
Justin Gabriel: 64 matches (16-47-1) = 25% win
Tyler Breeze: 63 matches (22-40-1) = 35% win; won NXT battle royal
Xavier Woods: 63 matches (28-34-1) = 45% win
Bayley: 59 matches (37-22-0) = 63% win
Summer Rae: 59 matches (19-38-2) = 33% win
Santino Marella: 59 matches (38-21-0) = 64% win
Colin Cassady: 56 matches (29-27-0) = 52% win
Aiden English: 56 matches (30-26-0) = 54% win
Layla: 54 matches (8-44-2) = 15% win
Mark Henry: 54 matches (43-9-2) = 83% win
Sasha Banks: 54 matches (16-38-0) = 30% win
Brodus Clay: 53 matches (15-37-1) = 29% win

More than 30 matches
Charlotte: 50 matches (27-23-0) = 54% win
CJ Parker: 47 matches (18-29-0) = 38% win
Eva Marie: 41 matches (24-16-1) = 60% win
Jason Jordan: 41 matches (13-28-0) = 32% win
Rosa Mendes: 40 matches (3-36-1) = 8% win
Baron Corbin: 40 matches (22-18-0) = 55% win
El Torito: 40 matches (37-3-0) = 93% win
Simon Gotch: 36 matches (23-13-0) = 64% win
Camacho: 35 matches (7-28-0) = 20% win
Mojo Rawley: 34 matches (25-9-0) = 74% win
Wesley Blake: 33 matches (7-26-0) = 21% win
Angelo Dawkins: 33 matches (13-20-0) = 39% win
Kalisto: 33 matches (22-11-0) = 67% win
Rey Mysterio: 32 matches (20-12-0) = 63% win
Batista: 31 matches (14-13-4) = 52% win; won the 2014 Royal Rumble
Bull Dempsey: 31 matches (18-13-0) = 58% win

More than 25 matches
Becky Lynch: 30 matches (16-14-0) = 53% win
Sylvester Lefort: 28 matches (8-20-0) = 29% win
Tye Dillinger: 27 matches (7-20-0) = 26% win
Mason Ryan: 26 matches (17-9-0) = 65% win
Alexa Bliss: 26 matches (13-13-0) = 50% win

More than 15 matches
Chris Jericho: 25 matches (19-4-2) = 83% win
Tensai: 25 matches (11-13-1) = 46% win
Hornswoggle: 24 matches (2-22-0) = 8% win
Corey Graves: 24 matches (15-9-0) = 63% win
Christian: 24 matches (10-14-0) = 42% win
Sawyer Fulton: 22 matches (3-19-0) = 14% win
Enzo Amore: 21 matches (14-7-0) = 67% win
Marcus Louis: 21 matches (8-13-0) = 38% win
Billy Gunn: 20 matches (7-12-1) = 37% win
Ricardo Rodriguez: 20 matches (3-17-0) = 15% win
Buddy Murphy: 19 matches (1-18-0) = 5% win
Scott Dawson: 19 matches (3-16-0) = 16% win
Road Dogg: 18 matches (7-10-1) = 41% win
Travis Tyler: 18 matches (8-10-0) = 44% win
Dash Wilder: 17 matches (3-14-0) = 18% win
Solomon Crowe: 16 matches (6-10-0) = 38% win

More than 10 matches
Kaitlyn: 15 matches (4-11-0) = 27% win
Troy McClain: 14 matches (1-13-0) = 7% win
Danny Burch: 14 matches (0-14-0) = 0% win
Carmella: 13 matches (4-9-0) = 31% win
Kendall Skye: 13 matches (4-9-0) = 31% win
Slate Randall: 13 matches (1-11-1) = 8% win

More than 5 matches
Paul Heyman: 10 matches (1-9-0) = 10% win
Yoshi Tatsu: 8 matches (2-6-0) = 25% win
Curt Hawkins: 8 matches (0-8-0) = 0% win
unknown: 7 matches (1-6-0) = 14% win
Steve Cutler: 7 matches (1-6-0) = 14% win
Kassius Ohno: 7 matches (2-5-0) = 29% win
Cal Bishop: 6 matches (3-2-1) = 60% win
Mistico: 6 matches (3-2-1) = 60% win

More than 3 matches
Veronica Lane: 5 matches (0-5-0) = 0% win
Brad Maddox: 5 matches (1-4-0) = 20% win
Oliver Grey: 5 matches (1-4-0) = 20% win
JoJo: 5 matches (3-2-0) = 60% win
Triple H: 4 matches (0-3-1) = 0% win
Elias Sampson: 4 matches (0-4-0) = 0% win

Multiple matches
Knuckles Madsen: 3 matches (2-1-0) = 67% win
Chad Gable: 3 matches (2-1-0) = 67% win
Vickie Guerrero: 3 matches (0-3-0) = 0% win
Brock Lesnar: 3 matches (3-0-0) = 100% win
Garrett Dylan: 3 matches (0-3-0) = 0% win
Alex Riley: 2 matches (0-2-0) = 0% win
Jonny Vandal: 2 matches (0-2-0) = 0% win
Hideo Itami: 2 matches (2-0-0) = 100% win
Grandmaster Sexay: 2 matches (1-1-0) = 50% win
Scotty 2 Hotty: 2 matches (1-1-0) = 50% win
Devin Taylor: 2 matches (1-1-0) = 50% win
Stephanie McMahon: 2 matches (2-0-0) = 100% win
CJ O'Doyle: 2 matches (0-2-0) = 0% win

One Shot Stars
Aaron Solo: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
CM Skunk: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
Vordell Walker: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
Chris Rockwell: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
Rikishi: 1 match (1-0-0) = 100% win
Mike Lebosca: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
Nick Nardone: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
Tee Perkins: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
William Regal: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
Derek Billington: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
Jonathan Ortagun: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
Philip Gouljar: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
Undertaker: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
Tommy Taylor: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
Mike Cuellari: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
John Cahill: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
Captain Comic: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
Matt Sugarman: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
Stuart Cumberland: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
Raquel Diaz: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
Jack Hurley: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
John Icarino: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
Mac Miles: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win
Dana Brooke: 1 match (1-0-0) = 100% win
Tyson Dux: 1 match (0-1-0) = 0% win

Observations:
  • Cesaro is a beast. He's wrestled over 200 times in the past year. My count has him at 212 matches (without including battle royal/rumble appearances&wins) and 208 different events where he had a match. Poor dude.
  • Most tag matches go to the teams you'd expect: Goldust & Stardust (159), Erick Rowan & Luke Harper (165) and the Usos (171). However, Jimmy Uso actually has one additional tag match match without his brother. At a live event in Indiana on September 5, Jimmy tagged with The Great Khali. (New Tag Champs?!)
  • The King of singles matches might surprise you: Damien Sandow. He's had 165 singles matches (including multi-man singles) which puts him well ahead of the two runner-ups Dolph Ziggler (151 singles) and recently released Alberto Del Rio (150). Sandow is only 30-165 in singles competition though.
  • Some guys are predominately tag wrestlers. Some guys are predominately singles wrestlers. Who has straddled the line the most in the past 12 months? Bray Wyatt with 79 singles matches and 80 tag matches. He's won 38% of the singles matches and only 27% of the tag matches.
  • Only four wrestlers (with more than ten matches) have won more than 90% of their matches (note: this includes victories via DQ). What a stable they would make: Rusev (114-10-1), Adam Rose (80-6-0), CM Punk (60-4-2) and El Torito (37-3-0).
  • Only six main roster wrestlers have sunk below the 10% mark in terms of winning percentage (again, this includes losses via DQ/count-out). That's recently released two-thirds of 3MB (Drew McIntyre & Jinder Mahal) along with theDemonKane, Aksana, Total Divas' star Rosa Mendes and Hornswoggle.
  • Who is splitting the uprights with a 50% win record? Sami Zayn (39-39) and Alexa Bliss (13-13). (Pair 'em up!)

Monday, September 15, 2014

Wrestlenomics for the WON Hall of Fame Ballot

Analysis by Chris Harrington

I've been compiling several areas of research:
  1. Days as champions for major belts (specifically starting in 1984-2014)
  2. Four star+ matches 
  3. Total PPV Main Events for U.S.
  4. Total 10,000+ crowds for Japan (75% complete for wrestler attribution)
  5. Wrestler of the Year and Match of the Year tallies

WON HOF Candidates 2014

HISTORICAL PERFORMERS: Gene & Ole Anderson, The Assassins (Joe Hamilton & Tom Renesto), Red Bastien, June Byers, Pepper Gomez, Dick Hutton, Pedro Morales, Ciclon Negro, Kinji Shibuya, Wilbur Snyder, John Tolos, Enrique Torres, Von Brauners & Saul Weingeroff , Tim "Mr. Wrestling" Woods, Johnny "Mr. Wrestling II" Walker 
MODERN PERFORMERS: Junkyard Dog, Edge, Owen Hart, Curt Hennig, Ivan Koloff, Brock Lesnar, Fabulous Moolah, Dick Murdoch, Ken Patera, C.M. Punk, Rock & Roll Express (Ricky Morton & Robert Gibson), Sgt. Slaughter, Jimmy Snuka, Sting, Ultimate Warrior
WRESTLING IN JAPAN: Jun Akiyama, George Gordienko, Gran Hamada, Volk Han, Masahiko Kimura, Satoshi Kojima & Hiroyoshi Tenzan, Yuji Nagata, Seiji Sakaguchi, Mike & Ben Sharpe, Minoru Suzuki, Kiyoshi Tamura, Akira Taue
WRESTLING IN MEXICO: Brazo de Oro & Brazo de Plata & El Brazo, Cien Caras, Hector Garza, Ultimo Guerrero, Karloff Lagarde, Blue Panther, L.A. Park, Huracan Ramirez , El Signo & El Texano & Negro Navarro, Vampiro, Villano III, Dr. Wagner Jr.
WRESTLING IN EUROPE: Jim Breaks, Big Daddy, Giant Haystacks, Horst Hoffman, Billy Joyce, Kendo Nagasaki, Jackie Pallo, Rollerball Mark Rocco, Johnny Saint, Otto Wanz
WRESTLING IN AUSTRALIA/PACIFIC ISLANDS/CARIBBEAN/AFRICA CANDIDATES: Spyros Arion, Johnny Barend, Brute Bernard & Skull Murphy, Carlos Colon, King Kong Czaja, John DaSilva, Domenic DeNucci, Killer Karl Kox, Mark Lewin, Mario Milano, Jan Wilkens
NON-WRESTLERS: Bill Apter, Dave Brown, Jim Crockett Jr., Jim Crockett Sr., Gary Hart, Jimmy Hart, Howard Finkel, Jerry Jarrett, Larry Matysik, Gorilla Monsoon, Gene Okerluind, Don Owen, George Scott, Jesse Ventura, Stanley Weston

The data that I've compiled is really going to give insight for "Modern Performers" and will also provide some relevant comparisons for modern "Wrestling in Japan" candidates.

#1 Days as Champion for Major Belts (1984-2014)

Among Wrestlers who have held major belts for extended time-periods, many are already in the WON HOF:
1. Hulk Hogan (1996)
2. Ric Flair (1996)
3. Mitsuharu Misawa (1996)
4. Keiji Mutoh (1999)
5. John Cena (2012)
6. Hiroshi Tanahashi (2013)
7. Shinya Hashimoto (2000)
8. Kenta Kobashi (2002)
9. Triple H (2005)
10. Vader (1996)
11. Kensuke Sasaki (2013)
12. Tatsumi Fujinami (1996)
14. Toshiaki Kawada (1997)
15. Bret Hart (1996)
18. Jumbo Tsuruta (1996)
22. Genichiro Tenryu (1996)
22. Randy Savage (1996)
27. Steve Austin (2000)
29. Stan Hansen (1996)
31. Undertaker (2004)
34. Shawn Michaels (2003)
36. Riki Choshu (1996)
37. Kurt Angle (2004)
39. Rock (2007)
40. Antonio Inoki (1996)
49. Chris Jericho (2010)
58. Chris Benoit (2003)
61. Rey Mysterio (2010)
64. Eddie Guerrero (2006)
67. Nobuhiko Takada (1996)
71. Steve Williams (2011)
73. Ricky Steamboat (1996)
82. Mick Foley (2000)
84. Masahiro Chono (2004)
89. Dusty Rhodes (1996)
90. Terry Gordy (2005)
91. Vince McMahon (1996)
92. Bob Backlund (2004)
93. Harley Race (1996)
94. Andre the Giant (1996)

Some wrestlers are currently on the ballot:
16. Satoshi Kojima (ballot) - listed as a tag team with Tenzan
17. Brock Lesnar (ballot)
19. CM Punk (ballot)
20. Jun Akiyama (ballot)
24. Yuji Nagata (ballot)
25. Edge (ballot)
32. Sting (ballot)
42. Ultimate Warrior (ballot)
51. Hiroyoshi Tenzan (ballot) - listed as a tag team with Kojima
62. Akira Taue (ballot)
77. Sgt Slaughter (ballot)

Some wrestlers are not on this year's ballot:
13. Randy Orton (not eligible yet)
21. Takashi Sugiura (n/a)
26. Batista (fell off ballot in 2013)
28. Kazuchika Okada (not eligible yet)
30. Kazuyuki Fujita (n/a)
33. Kevin Nash (fell off ballot in 1998)
35. Shinsuke Nakamura (not eligible yet)
38. Sheamus (n/a)
41. Alberto Del Rio (n/a)
43. Yokozuna (n/a)
44. Bradshaw (n/a)
45. Big Show (n/a)
46. Goldberg (n/a)
47. Takeshi Rikio (n/a)
48. Lex Luger (fell off in 1998)
50. Yoshihiro Takayama (fell off in 2003 and 2005)
52. Takeshi Morishima (n/a)
53. Go Shiozaki (n/a)
54. Daniel Bryan (not eligible yet)
55. Togi Makabe (n/a)
56. Miz (n/a)
57. Kane (fell off in 2012)
59. Yoshinari Ogawa (n/a)
60. Ron Simmons (n/a)
63. AJ Styles (fell off in 2013)
65. Scott Norton (n/a)
65. Booker T (fell off in 2006)
68. Sycho Sid (n/a)
69. Naomichi Marufuji (not eligible yet)
70. Mark Henry (n/a)
72. Jack Swagger (n/a)
74. Jeff Hardy (fell off in 2012)
75. Dolph Ziggler (n/a)
76. Bob Sapp (n/a)
78. Ron Garvin (n/a)
79. Great Khali (n/a)
80. Tadao Yasuda (n/a)
80. Salman Hashimikov (n/a)
83. Manabu Nakanishi (n/a)
85. Christian (n/a)
86. Diamond Dallas Page (n/a)
87. Rob Van Dam (fell off in 2007)
88. Kerry Von Erich (fell off in 1999 and 2007)

#2 Four Star+ Matches

Among Wrestlers with 15+ ****plus matches, many are already in the WON HOF:
1. Kenta Kobashi (2002)
2. Mitsuharu Misawa (1996)
3. Toshiaki Kawada (1997)
5. Kurt Angle (2004)
6. Chris Benoit (2003)
8. Jushin Thunder Liger (1999)
10. Shawn Michaels (2003)
11. Hiroshi Tanahashi (2013)
14. Jumbo Tsuruta (1996)
15. Ric Flair (1996)
15. Rey Mysterio (2010)
17. Chris Jericho (2010)
19. Eddie Guerrero (2006)
20. Steve Williams (2011)
21. Triple H (2005)
26. Steve Austin (2000)
27. Keiji Muto (1999)
34. John Cena (2012)
40. Undertaker (2004)
56. Masahiro Chono (2004)


There are several wrestlers who are the ballot who also have 15+ ****-plus matches:
4. Akira Taue (ballot)
7. Jun Akiyama (ballot)
9. Edge (ballot)
48. CM Punk (ballot)
51. Yuji Nagata (ballot)
51. Sting (ballot)
61. Minoru Suzuki (ballot)


There's also several wrestlers who are not on this year's ballot:
11. AJ Styles (fell off in 2013)
13. KENTA (not eligible yet)
17. Shinjiro Otani (n/a)
21. Daniel Bryan (not eligible yet)
23. Kazuchika Okada (not eligible yet)
24. Tsuyoshi Kikuchi (n/a)
25. Naomichi Marufuji (not eligible yet)
27. Randy Orton (not eligible yet)
27. Koji Kanemoto (n/a)
30. Samoa Joe (n/a)
31. Masanobu Fuchi (n/a)
31. Christopher Daniels (n/a)
31. Jeff Hardy (fell off in 2012)
34. Shinsuke Nakamura (not eligible yet)
36. Yoshinari Ogawa (n/a)
36. Tetsuya Naito (n/a)
36. Christian (n/a)
36. El Samurai (n/a)
40. Tomohiro Ishii (n/a)
42. Yoshinobu Kanemaru (n/a)
51. Chris Sabin (n/a)
51. Davey Richards (n/a)
51. Johnny Ace (n/a)
56. Shelton Benjamin (n/a)
56. Hirooki Goto (n/a)
61. Seth Rollins (not eligible yet)
61. Scott Steiner (as a tag team with Rick: fell off in 1998 & 2007)
61. Juventud Guerrera (n/a)
61. Alex Shelley (n/a)
61. Low Ki (n/a)
61. Katsuyori Shibata (n/a)


#3 Total PPV Main Events

(This includes WWF/WWE, TNA, ECW, WCW PPVs but does not include weekly TNA.)

Among Wrestlers with 10+ main events, many are already in the WON HOF:
1. John Cena (2012)
2. Triple H (2005)
2. Undertaker (2004)
5. Kurt Angle (2004)
6. Hulk Hogan (1996)
8. Shawn Michaels (2003)
12. Ric Flair (1996)
13. Steve Austin (2000)
19. Rock (2007)
22. Chris Jericho (2010)
23. Mick Foley (2000)
24. Bret Hart (1996)
25. Randy Savage (1996)
33. Vader (1996)
36. Rey Mysterio (2010)
45. Chris Benoit (2003)
45. Vince McMahon (1996)
45. Roddy Piper (1996)


There are four wrestlers who are the ballot who also have 10+ PPV main events:
4. Sting (ballot)
16. Edge (ballot)
21. CM Punk (ballot)
36. Brock Lesnar (ballot)


There's also many wrestlers who are not on this year's ballot with 10+ PPV main events:
7. Randy Orton (not eligible yet)
9. Big Show (n/a)
10. Jeff Jarrett (n/a)
11. Kevin Nash (fell off ballot in 1998)
13. AJ Styles (fell off in 2013)
15. Batista (fell off in 2013)
17. Samoa Joe (n/a)
17. Kane (fell off in 2012)
19. Jeff Hardy (fell off in 2012)
26. Christian Cage (n/a)
27. RVD (fell off in 2007)
28. Lex Luger (fell off in 1998)
29. Booker T (fell off in 2006)
29. Scott Steiner (as a tag team with Rick: fell off in 1998 & 2007)
31. Bubba Ray Dudley (fell off in 2007 as tag team)
32. Sid Vicious (n/a)
33. Sheamus (n/a)
33. Bobby Roode (n/a)
36. Abyss (n/a)
39. Alberto Del Rio (n/a)
39. Goldberg (n/a)
39. James Storm (n/a)
42. Daniel Bryan (not eligible yet)
42. JBL (n/a)
44. Christopher Daniels (n/a)
45. Scott Hall (fell off in 1998)
45. Rhyno (n/a)
45. Miz (n/a)
51. DDP (n/a)
51. Sabu (fell off in 2000)
53. D-Von Dudley (fell off in 2007 as tag team)
53. Ron Killings (n/a)
53. Davey Boy Smith (fell off in 1998 and 2006)
56. Mark Henry (n/a)
56. Wade Barrett (n/a)


#4 10,000+ Crowds for Japan (75% complete; mostly 1973-2013 time-frame)

Among Wrestlers with 30+ appearances in the top third of crowd, many are already in the WON HOF:
1. Keiji Muto (1999)
2. Masahiro Chono (2004)
3. Kensuke Sasaki (2013)
4. Mitsuharu Misawa (1996)
5. Toshiaki Kawada (1997)
5. Riki Choshu (1996)
7. Genichiro Tenryu (1996)
8. Shinya Hashimoto (2000)
9. Kenta Kobashi (2002)
11. Tatsumi Fujinami (1996)
14. Stan Hansen (1996)
19. Steve Williams (2011)
20. Jumbo Tsuruta (1996)
21. Hiroshi Hase (2006)
23. Jushin Thunder Liger (1999)
25. Giant Baba (1996)
26. Antonio Inoki (1996)
27. Hiroshi Tanahashi (2013)
28. Vader (1996)
37. Nobuhiko Takada (1996)


There are five wrestlers who are the ballot who also have 30+ appearances on the top third:
10. Jun Akiyama (ballot)
12. Hiroyoshi Tenzan (ballot) - on ballot as a tag team with Kojima
13. Akira Taue (ballot)
15. Yuji Nagata (ballot)
17. Satoshi Kojima (ballot) - on ballot as a tag team with Tenzan


There's also several wrestlers who are not on this year's ballot:
16. Yoshihiro Takayama (fell off in 2003 and 2005)
17. Manabu Nakanishi (n/a)
21. Shiro Koshinaka (n/a)
23. Scott Norton (n/a)
28. Johnny Ace (n/a)
28. Kengo Kimura (n/a)
28. Gary Albright (n/a)
28. Kazuo Yamazaki (n/a)
33. Super Strong Machine (n/a)
34. Takao Omori (n/a)
35. Yoshiaki Fujiwara (n/a)
35. Shinsuke Nakamura (not eligible yet)
37. Takashi Iizuka (n/a)


#5 WON Awards: Wrestler of the Year & Match of the Year Points

Timeframe: 1980-2013

Among Wrestlers with 25+ points who are already in the WON HOF:
1. Ric Flair (1996)
2. Kenta Kobashi (2002)
3. Mitsuharu Misawa (1996)
4. Shawn Michaels (2003)
5. Toshiaki Kawada (1997)
7. Hiroshi Tanahashi (2013)
8. John Cena (2012)
9. Steve Austin (2000)
9. Triple H (2005)
11. Chris Benoit (2003)
12. Kurt Angle (2004)
15. Keiji Muto (1999)
16. Ricky Steamboat (1996)
18. Chris Jericho (2010)
18. Jushin Thunder Liger (1999)
20. Bret Hart (1996)
22. Mick Foley (2000)
23. Manami Toyota (2002)
24. Undertaker (2004)
26. Rey Mysterio (2010)
28. Genichiro Tenryu (1996)
29. Jumbo Tsuruta (1996)
31. Hulk Hogan (1996)
32. Akira Maeda (1996)
32. Eddie Guerrero (2006)
34. Kensuke Sasaki (2013)
35. Rock (2007)
36. Tiger Mask (1996)
38. Bobby Eaton (2009)
39. Nobuhiko Takada (1996)
42. Bob Backlund (2004)
42. Ted DiBiase (1996)
44. Vader (1996)
45. Terry Funk (1996)
45. Terry Gordy (2005)
51. Harley Race (1996)
56. Dynamite Kid (1996)
58. Randy Savage (1996)
58. Stan Lane (2009)
63. Steve Williams (2011)
63. Tatsumi Fujinami (1996)


There are eight wrestlers who are the ballot who also have 25+ points:
13. Jun Akiyama (ballot)
20. CM Punk (ballot)
25. Edge (ballot)
36. Yuji Nagata (ballot)
45. Akira Taue (ballot)
45. Brock Lesnar (ballot)
49. Sting (ballot)
56. Sgt Slaughter (ballot)


There's also several wrestlers who are not on this year's ballot:
6. Daniel Bryan (not eligible yet)
14. KENTA (not eligible yet)
16. Samoa Joe (n/a)
27. Davey Richards (n/a)
29. Kazuchika Okada (not eligible yet)
39. Barry Windham (n/a)
39. Kerry Von Erich (
(fell off in 1999 and 2007)
50. Shingo Takagi (n/a)
51. Naomichi Marufuji (not eligible yet)
51. Nigel Mcguinness (n/a)
51. Rick Steiner (as a tag team with Rick: fell off in 1998 & 2007)
51. Scott Steiner (as a tag team with Rick: fell off in 1998 & 2007)
60. Larry Zbyszko (n/a)
60. Mistico (n/a)
60. Naruki Doi (n/a)


Conclusion

This looks at some raw metrics but doesn't necessarily encompass "drawing power" or even "working ability".

Looking at the 2014 WON Ballot Candidates 
Akira Taue, Yuji Nagata, Sting, CM Punk, Edge, Jun Akiyama each appear in at least four different categories. Brock Lesnar is in three categories. Hiroyoshi Tenzan, Satoshi Kojima and Sgt Slaughter are in two categories while Ultimate Warrior and Minoru Suzuki each appear once.

If I limit it to top 40 ranked wrestlers in each category, Edge & Akiyama has four top forty finishes, Nagata & Punk have three top forty finishes, Sting/Taue/Lesnar/Kojima have two top forty finishes and Tenzan has one.

Other

In terms of wrestlers not on the ballot currently, strongest names look like Daniel Bryan, Kazuchika Okada, Randy Orton, Samoa Joe and Shinsuke Nakamura.

Friday, September 12, 2014

WWE finally announces India TV Rights Deal.


WWE has been talking about this thing for a long time.

A year ago, WWE set out the goal that "over the next 18 months we expect to renegotiate our four largest television agreements in the U.S., the UK and India."

And they've done it. All those agreements have been completed (along with ones in Canada, France, the Middle East, Germany, AustriaThailand)

At the last conference Call Safalow tried to push them for details but they wouldn't say...

Brad Safalow - PAA Research
Thanks. Just a couple of follow-ups. One, what is the status of the TV rights negotiation in India.
George Barrios - Chief Strategy & Financial Officer
We are still working through the deal with our partner. Obviously we’ve agreed to terms where we’re working through the final point.
Brad Safalow - PAA Research
Okay. So is that something you actually will communicate kind of what you have in the past or suggested on the mark-to-market.
George Barrios - Chief Strategy & Financial Officer
That we would communicate when the deal is signed.
Brad Safalow - PAA Research
Well, you obviously always communicate with the deal signed, but give us a sense of like how much the increase was.
George Barrios - Chief Strategy & Financial Officer
Yes we never talk about that. We’ve already communicated kind of the total increase of our major deal. So that will probably be the extent of it. We don’t get into the individual deals that we are in.
Back in May WWE said, "Our content licensing agreements as far as India is concerned, we’re in the middle of negotiations there, which should be big for us."

In February, the company had noted, "Additionally, we like to be aware that we are currently in similar discussions in India, where our analysis also indicate significant economic upside. Each of these developments represent significant milestones in our effort to realize greater value from our content and transform our business."

I'm curious what the "new one-hour fully customized version of Raw tailored specifically for the Indian audience" will involve and how profitable bringing "WWE live events back to India in 2015" will end up being.

Thursday, September 04, 2014

CM Punk vs. WWE re: Royalties (Contract Chatter)

In the September 8, 2014 issue of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter, editor Dave Meltzer writes:

Attorneys for C.M. Punk sent a 22 page letter to WWE over royalties (I believe WWE stopped sending Punk royalty money over their claim of a breach of contract) and use of his likeness, particularly him being featured in the video game (the roster of the game was put together before he quit the promotion even though it was just announced two weeks ago).
If people are curious about the language in standard WWE contracts, they can take a gander at https://sites.google.com/site/chrisharrington/mookieghana-prowrestlingstatistics/wwe_contracts where I've posted copies of ones that have been made public over the years through SEC filings or public lawsuits.

I believe Stephanie McMahon's October 7, 2013 contract is probably the most recent example that I've found.

Now, CM Punk or Rey Mysterio's contract may have different language in it because as top stars they're more likely to have negotiated special clauses when they were re-signing.
However, I'd wager that the basic outline for their contract is similar to Steph's performer contract. However, I would note that some of the language about wrestlers not receiving royalties on "internet subscription fees; subscription video on demand fees" (7.5) may not be Punk's contract because I suspect that might be relatively new language.

Regarding "Breach of Contract", section 12 talks about "BREACH" which includes 12.1.c that "PROMOTER shall have the right, in its sole discretion, to immediately suspend or terminate this Agreement, both as to services and compensation, if any of the following occurs:... WRESTLER is habitually late and/or absent for scheduled Events or appearances as PROMOTER determines in its sole discretion"

Royalties are covered in section 7 though it's specifically calls out in 7.1.c that "breach" can affect the payments. Additionally, in section 9.6 may be applicable to CM Punk cases:
9.6 WRESTLER shall use best efforts in the ring in the performance of wrestling services for a match or other activity, in order to provide an honest exhibition of WRESTLER’s wrestling skills and abilities, consistent with the customs of the professional wrestling industry; and WRESTLER agrees all matches shall be finished in accordance with the PROMOTER's direction. Breach of this Section 9.6 shall cause a forfeiture of any payments due WRESTLER pursuant to Section 7 and shall entitle PROMOTER to terminate this Agreement, or suspend WRESTLER without pay, but such breach shall not terminate PROMOTER's licenses and other rights under this Agreement. If PROMOTER in its discretion suspends this Agreement, when reinstated, PROMOTER may extend the Term of this Agreement for a period of time equal to the period of suspension or any portion thereof and this Agreement will therefore continue to be of full force and effect throughout the remainder of the Term.
It's hard to say whether not showing up (being absent) is the same as violating "best efforts" and doing the right finish. If they insist that Punk did violate that by walking out, perhaps they're going with the idea that's why they wouldn't have to pay Section 7 (Royalties).

(And if anyone was curious, section 10.2.b is the 'Rey Mysterio' clause: "(b) In the event that WRESTLER is unable to wrestle for six (6) consecutive weeks during the Term of this Agreement, for any or no reason, including, without limitation, due to an injury suffered while performing services at PROMOTER’s direction, PROMOTER shall have the right to thereafter: (i) terminate this Agreement; (ii) suspend WRESTLER either with or without pay; and/or (iii) extend the Term of this Agreement for a period of time equal to the entire period of inability to wrestle, or any portion thereof." I believe that WWE is using this part of the contract to 'extend' Rey's time under obligation to WWE by the amount of injury time he's accumulated.)

Lastly, I am not a lawyer. People far more experienced than I will be able to give meaningful analysis.

- Chris Harrington
@mookieghana

Friday, August 08, 2014

WWE Q2 Results & New Articles & Audio

So, I'm now writing several articles each week over at Bleacher Report.

This week I did a lot of coverage of the WWE Q2 Results:

BR 8/6/14 - Wrestlenomics: Updated 2014 WWE Win-Loss Analysis Through Aug. 5
BR 8/5/14 - Triple H and Stephanie McMahon Discuss Creative at Needham Fireside Chat
BR 8/5/14 - WWE Confirms It's Shutting Down Magazine Division
BR 8/4/14 - Breaking Down Biggest Ramifications of Latest WWE Network Subscription Numbers
WC 8/1/14 - How did WWE Answer those Q2 Questions?
BR 7/31/14 - WWE 2nd-Quarter Conference Call Announces Global WWE Network Launch
WC 7/28/14 - Important Questions WWE Must Answer in the Q2 Call

I also recorded several hours of great audio including:
Tomorrow I will have a new Wrestlenomics Radio Episode at a special time: Saturday, 8/9/14 at 11 AM EST. I'll have Aaron Taube, who is an excellent reporter for Business Insider as a guest.

Other fun material to think about:

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

My WWE Network 6/30/2014 Prediction

On Thursday morning, WWE will release their Q2 Financial results. Since we see monthly KPI numbers, we already have a good idea about how some of the key drivers for the business (attendance, traditional PPV buys, Home Entertainment sales) are faring. However, an exceptionally important subject where we don't have a good understanding is the state of the WWE Network. In particular, we want to know how many paid subscriptions the service has as of 6/30/2014.

The previous post-WM30 announcement of of 667,287 subscriptions signaled that the WWE Network service was growing a much slower clip than they internally expected. Now, the looming question remains - without a juggernaut attraction such as Wrestlemania, how much more growth did the WWE Network experience in May & June?  Will they hit the bottom of the original projections - 1,000,000 subscribers by year's end?

Last month, I decided to take a poll on a professional wrestling message board that I frequent - the Wrestling Observer/Figure Four Weekly website.  I'm a great believer in the wisdom of the masses and crowd sourcing.  Why not put Surowiecki's thesis to the test?


I offered chunks in increments of 50,000. Since I believed that the Q2 number will be above the number announced during the first week of April (667,287) and it would be below the revised goal for year's end (1,000,000), I wanted to concentrate on delineating between those middle buckets.

Some observations:

  • Over 85% of votes believed the WWE Network would report less than 800,000 subscribers
  • More than a third of the voters did not even believe the WWE Network would achieve 5% growth and hit the 700,000 mark
  • Only a very small handful of voters (less than 4%) were optimistic that WWE would be above 900,000 subscribers
If we look at the weighted average for this poll (assuming the bottom bucket represents "667k-700k" and the top bucket represents "1M-1.05M", it's about 750,983.  (Median, similarly, would be about 750,000.) If you exclude those two votes in the most extreme (1M+) bucket, and you accordingly drop two votes from the most conservative (below 700k) bucket, you'd get about 745,242.

For my estimate, I took the midpoint between the two estimates: median (750,000) and adjusted average (745,242).  That brought me to my guess of 748,113.  Again, I have no inside knowledge. In fact, I'm using the estimate from this poll to bring me to the approximation. I feel like that "hard-sell" we've seen this month for appealing to viewers to sign up, and the reports of Cost-Cutting Measures in WWE are evidence that the service is underperforming expectations, but that's the extent of my "other information" that I'm using to inform my estimate.

If my estimate is true, that would represent about 80,000 new signups since Wrestlemania which would certainly be sluggish.

My friend, Brian Papa, passed along a prediction that appeared on the "Silicon Valley Obession" 'Secret' iPhone app:

That's certainly in the range of estimates that the poll above gave, but I really doubt that such an important number is being "leaked" through this service. We can get to the same estimate without such unsourced wackiness.

Where will WWE publish this important 6/30/14 WWE Network number?  It will likely show up in (at least) three places: the Trending Schedule (which lays out revenue by quarter - look on the last page), the 10-Q SEC filing (which usually doesn't show up for one/two business days after the quarter conference call) and monthly KPI report (which likely will be released tomorrow alongside the normal 8-K report).

How do I do on WWE Network predictions in the past?
Let's see if we can be on the money again!