Wrestling Observer Hall of Fame 2008-2014 Voting Wrestlenomics

I've been going through the Wrestling Observer Newsletter archives and looking at the WON HOF performance over the last seven years:

Europe 

Historical

Japan

Mexico

Modern

Other

To keep people's results grouped together, I've included everyone in the most recent category in which they were categorized. That means, people who began in Modern and moved in Historical would appear to Historical. Likewise, the catch-all category ("AUSTRALIA/PACIFIC ISLANDS/CARIBBEAN/AFRICA") was only introduced in recent years though some of these candidates have been on the ballots for much, much longer. Keep in mind that the overall number of voters in each category has shifted each year. In addition, the percentage of votes required for being inducted is a function of number of voters for the group of which each performer is part of. Induction is 60% or higher. Wrestlers with less than 10% are dropped from the ballot.

WON Source (subscription required)
2008: 9/8/2008 issue
2009: 9/28/2009 issue
2010: 9/27/2010 issue
2011: 10/24/2011 issue
2012: 11/12/2012 issue
2013: 11/6/2013 issue
2014: 11/24/2014 issue

Some notes for 2015 ballot:

Added to the ballot in 2015:

• CIMA - first year
• Bryan Danielson - first year
• Cowboy Bob Ellis - was dropped from the ballot in 2010 after receiving less than 10% of the vote
• Bob Geigel
• Samoa Joe - first year
• Rocky Johnson - was dropped from the ballot in 2009 after receiving less than 10% of the vote
• Shinsuke Nakamura - first year
• Randy Orton - first year
• Eddie Quinn - first year
• A.J. Styles - was dropped from the ballot in 2013 after receiving less than 10% of the vote

Will be dropped after next year if not inducted or 50%:

• Cien Caras - 18 votes in 2010 (24%), 37 votes in 2011 (31%), 32 votes in 2012 (42%), 41 votes in 2013 (45%), 53 votes in 2014 (54%)
• Carlos Colon - 39% of votes in 2007, 116 votes in 2008 (47%), 80 votes in 2009 (40%), 62 votes in 2010 (34%), 61 votes in 2011 (55%), 61 votes in 2012 (59%), 85 votes in 2013 (59%), 76 votes in 2014 (56%)
• Villano III - 54% of votes in 2007, 50 votes in 2008 (40%), 23 votes in 2009 (31%), 23 votes in 2010 (31%), 55 votes in 2011 (47%), 38 votes in 2012 (49%), 38 votes in 2013 (41%), 32 votes in 2014 (33%)
• Volk Han - 28% of votes in 2007, 38 votes in 2008 (45%), 38 votes in 2009 (39%), 25 votes in 2010 (22%), 55 votes in 2011 (47%), 41 votes in 2012 (42%), 44 votes in 2013 (42%), 52 votes in 2014 (51%)

Looking at the trends (which obviously can be quite misleading), it would seem that we'd see strong results for:

• Gene & Ole Anderson - grown from less than 25% in 2008/2009 to mid-50% in 2011-2013 and finished at 49% last year
• Cien Caras - grown from 24% to 54% which higher percentage every year. This is also a "make or break" year for Caras.
• Karloff Lagarde - grown from 19% in 2008 to 52% in 2013. Last year was at 48%.
• Brock Lesnar - 24% in 2012 immediately grew to 47% in 2013. Last year nearly made it in at 56% and continues to be a major player in WWE.
• Carlos Colon - Been consistently above 40% with a single exception in 2010. Bounced back from that. Another candidate who is in a "make or break" situation.

On the flip side, candidates whose support has been eroding in recent years:

• Dick Hutton - started at 28% in 2011 but has been below 20% ever since. Last year was 13%.
• June Byers - started at 25% in 2012 but has been dropping each year. Last year was 14%.
• Kinji Shibuya - started at 50% in 2010 (following his death in May) but support fell to 27% the following year and has been at 14-15% in recent years.
• Pepper Gomez - his iron stomach has held up stronger than his votes; dropped from 26% to 24% to 16% down to 10% last year.
• Von Brauners/Weingeroff - first year at 22% in 2010 but slipped into the 12-19% in following years and last year was down to 10%.
• Hector Garza - fell off the ballot in 2008 and returned to the ballot in 2013 after his death. Initial support was at 32% but that cut in half (similar trend to Shibuya) to 15% last year.
• Brute Bernard & Skull Murphy - only 12% support last year and with likelyhood at Colon voters will flood the ballot, seems less likely the team will rebound.
• Domenic DeNucci - after a brisk start at 47% in 2012 and respectable follow-up at 37% in 2013, stuck in the "catch-all" category, DeNucci dropped to 21% last year. Still living so perhaps his numbers will rebound after his passing and there is a larger reconciliation of his entire career.
• Johnny Barend - also in the moutful "AUSTRALIA/PACIFIC ISLANDS/CARIBBEAN/AFRICA" category, Barend began at 25% in 2012 but has dropped to the dangerous drop-off point of 10% in last year's balloting.
• Mario Milano - yet another candidate teetering on the edge, with 28% in 2012, his stock fell in recent years ending at only 11% in 2014.

Personally, I believe that Sting's stock is likely to go up (was at 33% - could see bump into mid-40s due to his prominent role in WWE at two PPVs), voters will be FAR less likely to support Jimmy Snuka (who was already waning at 19% last year) and I still can't believe that Junkyard Dog only had 16% support last year (seems far too low).

Wrestlers who died in 2014 might see their votes decrease after their initial bump - that would include Ultimate Warrior (20%) and George Scott (19%). I'll be curious how Perro Aguayo Jr. does - he dropped off the ballot in 2012 after initially coming in at 25% in 2010 and dropping to 15% in 2011. I wouldn't be surprised if re-debuted at a strong 35%-40% range.

-Chris Harrington

chris.harrington@gmail.com

@mookieghana