Monday, September 14, 2015

Wrestlenomics of Day Distribution among WWE Wrestlers (2010-2015)

Which wrestlers usually work which days during the week?





Time-period: From January 2010 through August 2015
Scope: WWE shows (not NXT)
Completeness? Lots of caveats. This doesn't include battle royal participation. This doesn't include being a valet or second or doing just appearances or promos on a TV show. Someone like Nattie or Xavier Woods will have an incomplete picture.

You'll see that a very small percentage of wrestlers work shows on a Wednesdays (3% of total shows) or Thursdays (5% of total shows). About the only time that happens is usually doing the international tours, a rare live Thursday-night SmackDown or special like Tribute to the Troops, or it's a major holiday tour like the post-Christmas stretch when WWE does some monster houses usually in the Northeast. Also, depending on whether you were injured during the international tour will affect your numbers.

This compares the "average" distribution for day-of-the-week for the top 100 wrestlers in the sample to the actual distribution. The number presented is an index (100=same as "expected").

For instance, a guy like Dolph Ziggler:

189 Sunday shows = 20.1% (versus average of 20.5%); 20.1 / 20.5 = 98 index
198 Monday shows = 21.0% (versus average of 18.0%); 21.0 /18.0 = 117 index
183 Tuesday shows = 19.4% (versus average of 20.1%); 19.4 / 20.1 = 97 index
33 Wednesday shows = 3.5% (versus average of 3.3%); 3.5 / 3.3 = 107 index
47 Thursday shows = 5.0% (versus average of 4.6%); 5.0 / 4.6 = 107 index
109 Friday shows = 11.6% (versus average of 12.5%); 11.6 / 12.5 = 93 index
183 Saturday shows = 19.4% (versus average of 21.0%); 19.4 / 21.0 = 92 index
Unsurprisingly, analysis just suggests that certain guys are far less likely to work Tuesdays.
In addition, those same wrestlers are far more likely to be working the Friday shows.

Lowest Index for Tuesday Shows (top 50)
1. John Cena (32 Tuesday index / 142 Friday index)
2. CM Punk (44 Tuesday index / 121 Friday index)
3. Miz (59 Tuesday index / 122 Friday index) - Maryse had a similar split. So did Morrison.
4. Bray Wyatt (71 Tuesday index / 115 Friday index)
5. Nikki Bella (76 Tuesday index / 112 Friday index) - Cena connection?
6. Randy Orton (78 Tuesday index / 85 Friday index) - Seniority helps?
7. Ron Killings (79 Tuesday index / 116 Friday index)
8. Brie Bella (81 Tuesday index / 112 Friday index)
9. Ted DiBiase Jr (83 Tuesday index / 123 Friday index)
10. Santino Marella (85 Tuesday index / 133 Friday index)

What's also interesting is who is most likely to working those Tuesday shows? Prime Time Players / 3MB / Usos.

Highest Index for Tuesday Shows (top fifty)
1. Darren Young (166 Tuesday index / 89 Friday index)
2. Titus O'Neil (147 Tuesday index / 91 Friday index)
3. Justin Gabriel (139 Tuesday index / 77 Friday index)
4. Fandango (137 Tuesday index / 85 Friday index)
5. Jey Uso (137 Tuesday index / 83 Friday index)
6. Jimmy Uso (131 Tuesday index / 87 Friday index)
7. Drew McIntyre (129 Tuesday index / 69 Friday index)
8. Heath Slater (129 Tuesday index / 67 Friday index)
9. Tyson Kidd (127 Tuesday index / 94 Friday index)
10. Jinder Mahal (123 Tuesday index / 73 Friday index)

Jericho has an interesting distribution - 127 for Sunday / 124 for Monday / 73 for Tuesday / 43 for Wednesday / 75 for Thursday / 86 for Friday / 102 for Saturday. Clearly, the impact of the "selective house shows" schedule.

Guy with the lowest deviation from the "average"? Jack Swagger. Next three are Kofi, Big E and Daniel Bryan.

People with the highest standard deviation among the top 100 wrestlers (by number of dates worked) were guys at the very bottom of the totem poll: JTG, Curt Hawkins, Tyler Reks, Mason Ryan, Percy Watson, Trent Barreta. Many of them have very high Tuesday night numbers (200+ index). Outlier was Mason Ryan whose numbers (I believe) were driven by an international tour he was on.

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