Monday, April 21, 2014

WWF Wrestler Mortality - 5+ PPVs

A lot of people have been talking about Benjamin Morris' 538 piece, "Are Pro Wrestlers Dying at an Unusual Rate?"

His analysis looked at wrestlers who were on 20+ PPVs through 2002.  I went with a lower threshold 5+ PPVs expanded through 2013.  Here's what I found:

35-40 year olds: 35 alive, 1 dead = 2.8% dead (vs. 1.9% expected)
(John Cena, Rey Mysterio, CM Punk, Matt Hardy, Jeff Hardy, Sheamus, Trish Stratus, Alberto Del Rio, MVP, Shelton Benjamin, Brock Lesnar, Melina, Carlito, Santino Marella, Layla, Bobby Lashley, Hurricane Helms, Lita, Mr Kennedy, Torrie Wilson, Jamie Noble, Rhyno, Molly Holly, Billy Kidman, Rob Conway, Sylvain Grenier, Candice Michelle, Nick Dinsmore, Titus O'Neil, Gail Kim, Tamina Snuka, Ezekiel Jackson, Elijah Burke, Danny Basham, Maven;Test)

40-45 year olds: 44 alive, 4 dead = 8.3% dead (vs. 3% expected)
(Triple H, Edge, The Big Show, Chris Jericho, Christian, The Rock, Mark Henry, Bubba Ray Dudley, D-Von Dudley, Sean Waltman, Rob Van Dam, The Road Dogg, Ron Killings, Chavo Guerrero Jr, Val Venis, The Great Khali, Shane McMahon, Matt Bloom, D-Lo Brown, Tajiri, Victoria, Scott Taylor, Chyna, Charlie Haas, Spike Dudley, Ahmed Johnson, Brian Christopher, Mosh, Thrasher, Tommy Dreamer, Nunzio, Taka Michinoku, Super Crazy, Vladimir Kozlov, Chuck Palumbo, Jazz, Dawn Marie, Rosey, Jon Heidenreich, Stevie Richards, Gene Snitsky, Jonathan Coachman, Doug Basham, Luther Reigns; Umaga, Chris Candido, Crash Holly, Umaga, Viscera)

45-50 year olds: 29 alive, 4 dead = 12.1% dead (vs. 5.1% expected)
(The Undertaker, Glen Jacobs, Shawn Michaels, Kurt Angle, Batista, Bradshaw, Steve Austin, Mick Foley, Booker T, Dustin Rhodes, William Regal, Rikishi, Jeff Jarrett, Savio Vega, Dennis Knight, Lance Storm, Tazz, Sho Funaki, Perry Saturn, Bull Buchanan, Sable, Scorpio, Goldberg, Sabu, Raven, Brian Lee, David Heath, Brian Knobbs, Jerry Sags; Chris Benoit, Owen Hart, Eddie Guerrero, Yokozuna)

50-55 year olds: 33 alive, 8 dead = 19.5% dead (vs. 7.5% expected)
(Billy Gunn, Hardcore Holly, Ken Shamrock, Kevin Nash, Animal, Al Snow, Jacques Rougeau, Marty Jannetty, Charles Wright, Bart Gunn, Mark Canterbury, Marc Mero, Sid Vicious, Barry Darsow, Steve Blackman, Tatanka, Scott Steiner, The Warlord, Ivory, Ron Harris, Don Harris, Virgil, Jacqueline, Tom Prichard, Paul Roma, Samu, One Man Gang, Dean Malenko, Mike Enos, Bryan Clark, Rick Steiner, Boris Zhukov, Pat Tanaka; Davey Boy Smith, The Big Bossman, Brian Adams, Bam Bam Bigelow, The Ultimate Warrior, John Tenta, Luna, Kerry von Erich)

55-60 year olds: 19 alive, 5 dead = 20.8% dead (vs. 10.4% expected)
(Bret Hart, Ron Simmons, Scott Hall, Fit Finlay, Jake Roberts, Vader, Jim Neidhart, Mike Rotundo, Rick Martel, Brutus Beefcake, Haku, Lex Luger, Raymond Rougeau, The Barbarian, The Dynamite Kid, Koko B Ware, Fred Ottman, King Kong Bundy, Wayne Bloom; Hawk, Hercules Hernandez, Curt Hennig, Rick Rude, Adrian Adonis)

So, according to the mortality charts, we'd expect about 9-10 dead wrestlers. There's 22 dead out of this group of 182. In the 40-60 age range, twenty-one died when we'd expect less than nine.

-Chris Harrington (@mookieghana)

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

1- Is the "expected" rate based on the general population, or just athletes?

2- Alternatively, is the "expected" filtered by weight (a simple measure that may affect mortality)?

Wrestler mortality is obviously an issue, but showing that the numbers are more than expected for more comparable groups would be more pronounced.

3- Is the higher rate compared to the expected population statistically significant (i.e. p < .05)?