Here is my chart of PPV buys (usually based on 8-k filings) and domestic buys (estimated based on annual 10-k) combined with some numbers from the Observer. RAW Ratings were based on charts from Gerwick.
RAW Ratings are warts and all = that means I didn't adjust for 3 hour RAWs, I didn't take out non-Monday RAWs, I didn't adjust for major competition weeks. Whatever RAWs aired between PPVs became the average that I used.
And I'm using RAW ratings alone - nothing with Smackdown! (even though there are Smackdown! only PPVs in the beginning of this list) and nothing with other WWE shows (ECW, NXT, Superstars, etc.) I didn't incorporate price increase, UFC competition, major stips (Elimination Chamber, Hell in the Cell), headliners or anything else in this analysis.
PPV LIST
New Year's Revolution (Raw) 2006 = 294 buys / 182 domestic buys with 3.67 RAW rating avg.
Royal Rumble 06 = 548 buys / 334 domestic buys with 4.37 RAW rating avg.
No Way Out 06 (Smackdown!) 2006 = 219 buys / 134 domestic buys with 4.08 RAW rating avg.
WrestleMania 22 2006 = 958 buys / 584 domestic buys with 4.12 RAW rating avg.
Backlash 06 (Raw) 2006 = 213 buys / 130 domestic buys with 4.18 RAW rating avg.
Judgment Day 06 (Smackdown!) 2006 = 238 buys / 143 domestic buys with 4.02 RAW rating avg.
ECW One Night Stand 06 = 294 buys / 176 domestic buys with 3.8 RAW rating avg.
Vengeance 06 (Raw) 2006 = 339 buys / 203 domestic buys with 4.28 RAW rating avg.
Great American Bash (Smackdown!) 2006 = 227 buys / 136 domestic buys with 3.89 RAW rating avg.
Summer Slam 06 = 529 buys / 339 domestic buys with 4.03 RAW rating avg.
Unforgiven 06 (Raw) 2006 = 289 buys / 185 domestic buys with 3.64 RAW rating avg.
No Mercy 06 (Smackdown!) 2006 = 197 buys / 126 domestic buys with 3.57 RAW rating avg.
Cyber Sunday (Raw) 2006 = 228 buys / 141 domestic buys with 3.66 RAW rating avg.
Survivor Series 06 = 383 buys / 237 domestic buys with 3.75 RAW rating avg.
December to Dismember (ECW) 2006 = 90 buys / 56 domestic buys with 3.8 RAW rating avg.
Armageddon (Smackdown!) 2006 = 239 buys / 148 domestic buys with 3.75 RAW rating avg.
New Year's Revolution (Raw) 2007 = 220 buys / 145 domestic buys with 3.37 RAW rating avg.
Royal Rumble 07 = 491 buys / 324 domestic buys with 3.93 RAW rating avg.
No Way Out 07 (Smackdown!) 2007 = 218 buys / 144 domestic buys with 3.75 RAW rating avg.
WrestleMania 23 2007 = 1188 buys / 825 domestic buys with 4.02 RAW rating avg.
Backlash 07 = 194 buys / 128 domestic buys with 3.9 RAW rating avg.
Judgment Day 07 = 242 buys / 160 domestic buys with 3.6 RAW rating avg.
One Night Stand 07 = 186 buys / 123 domestic buys with 3.45 RAW rating avg.
Vengeance "Night of Champions" 2007 = 243 buys / 160 domestic buys with 3.9 RAW rating avg.
Great American Bash 07 (Smackdown!) 2007 = 229 buys / 151 domestic buys with 3.57 RAW rating avg.
Summer Slam 07 = 537 buys / 354 domestic buys with 3.46 RAW rating avg.
Unforgiven 07 (Raw) 2007 = 210 buys / 139 domestic buys with 3.55 RAW rating avg.
No Mercy 07 (Smackdown!) 2007 = 271 buys / 179 domestic buys with 3.3 RAW rating avg.
Cyber Sunday 07 (Raw) 2007 = 194 buys / 128 domestic buys with 3.13 RAW rating avg.
Survivor Series 07 = 341 buys / 225 domestic buys with 3.58 RAW rating avg.
Armageddon 07 = 237 buys / 156 domestic buys with 3.6 RAW rating avg.
Royal Rumble 08 = 533 buys / 352 domestic buys with 3.15 RAW rating avg.
No Way Out 08 = 329 buys / 217 domestic buys with 3.62 RAW rating avg.
WrestleMania 24 2008 = 1058 buys / 697 domestic buys with 3.58 RAW rating avg.
Backlash 08 = 200 buys / 132 domestic buys with 3.36 RAW rating avg.
Judgment Day 08 = 252 buys / 166 domestic buys with 3.26 RAW rating avg.
One Night Stand 08 = 194 buys / 128 domestic buys with 3.06 RAW rating avg.
Night of Champions 08 = 273 buys / 180 domestic buys with 3.21 RAW rating avg.
Great American Bash 08 = 196 buys / 129 domestic buys with 3.4 RAW rating avg.
Summer Slam 08 = 477 buys / 315 domestic buys with 3.35 RAW rating avg.
Unforgiven 08 = 211 buys / 139 domestic buys with 3.01 RAW rating avg.
No Mercy 08 = 261 buys / 172 domestic buys with 2.98 RAW rating avg.
Cyber Sunday 08 = 153 buys / 101 domestic buys with 3 RAW rating avg.
Survivor Series 08 = 319 buys / 211 domestic buys with 2.99 RAW rating avg.
Armageddon 08 = 193 buys / 127 domestic buys with 3.24 RAW rating avg.
Royal Rumble 09 = 450 buys / 284 domestic buys with 3.46 RAW rating avg.
No Way Out 09 = 272 buys / 171 domestic buys with 3.54 RAW rating avg.
WrestleMania 25 2009 = 960 buys / 605 domestic buys with 3.77 RAW rating avg.
Backlash 09 = 182 buys / 115 domestic buys with 3.8 RAW rating avg.
Judgment Day 09 = 228 buys / 144 domestic buys with 3.34 RAW rating avg.
Extreme Rules 09 = 213 buys / 134 domestic buys with 3.41 RAW rating avg.
Great American Bash 09 = 178 buys / 112 domestic buys with 3.94 RAW rating avg.
Night of Champions 09 = 267 buys / 168 domestic buys with 3.63 RAW rating avg.
Summer Slam 09 = 369 buys / 232 domestic buys with 3.77 RAW rating avg.
Breaking Point 2009 = 169 buys / 106 domestic buys with 3.79 RAW rating avg.
Hell in a Cell 2009 = 283 buys / 178 domestic buys with 3.3 RAW rating avg.
Bragging Rights 09 = 181 buys / 114 domestic buys with 3.32 RAW rating avg.
Survivor Series 09 = 235 buys / 148 domestic buys with 3.44 RAW rating avg.
TLC 2009 = 228 buys / 144 domestic buys with 3.2 RAW rating avg.
Royal Rumble 2010 = 462 buys / 282 domestic buys with 3.5 RAW rating avg.
Elimination Chamber 2010 = 285 buys / 174 domestic buys with 3.54 RAW rating avg.
WrestleMania 26 2010 = 885 buys / 498 domestic buys with 3.57 RAW rating avg.
Extreme Rules 2010 = 182 buys / 111 domestic buys with 3.28 RAW rating avg.
Over the Limit 2010 = 218 buys / 121 domestic buys with 3.15 RAW rating avg.
Fatal 4 Way 2010 = 143 buys / 87 domestic buys with 3.2 RAW rating avg.
Money in the Bank 2010 = 165 buys / 101 domestic buys with 3.37 RAW rating avg.
Summer Slam 2010 = 350 buys / 214 domestic buys with 3.38 RAW rating avg.
Night of Champions 2010 = 165 buys / 101 domestic buys with 3.21 RAW rating avg.
Hell in a Cell 2010 = 210 buys / 128 domestic buys with 2.78 RAW rating avg.
Bragging Rights 2010 = 137 buys / 84 domestic buys with 3.12 RAW rating avg.
Survivor Series 2010 = 244 buys / 149 domestic buys with 3.12 RAW rating avg.
TLC 2010 = 195 buys / 119 domestic buys with 3.15 RAW rating avg.
Royal Rumble 2011 = 446 buys / 272 domestic buys with 3.18 RAW rating avg.
Elimination Chamber 2011 = 199 buys / 121 domestic buys with 3.31 RAW rating avg.
WrestleMania 27 2011 = 1042 buys / 617 domestic buys with 3.74 RAW rating avg.
Extreme Rules 2011 = 138 buys / 65 domestic buys with 3.47 RAW rating avg.
Over the Limit 2011 = 220 buys / 113 domestic buys with 3.24 RAW rating avg.
Capitol Punishment 2011 = buys / 0 domestic buys with 3.19 RAW rating avg.
I could post about five pictures, but they largely tell the same story so I'll link the other four and just post the one that I think is relevant:
This is for B-shows (I took out Royal Rumble, Summerslam, Wrestlemania, Survivor Series). I also eliminated ECW December to Dismember.
WWE PPV B-Show Domestic Buys vs. RAW Ratings Average
Other charts
WWE PPV All Shows Worldwide Buys vs RAW Ratings
WWE PPV All Shows Domestic Buys vs RAW Ratings
WWE PPV B-Shows Worldwide Buys vs RAW Ratings
Is there a positive linear trend linking RAW Ratings with domestic PPV buys? Barely. The R-squared is almost zero which indicates that it's almost random (i.e. not correlated).
I'm sure that as one of a whole lot of factors (PPV price, Total WWE Health, PPV Competition, Total WWE Ratings Health in key demographics, Stipulation Strength, "TV Build", etc.) it plays a role, but it certainly doesn't seem to be a driver by any means. Some of those factors are easy to name but hard to define.
(BTW, I did a separate analysis that showed almost no difference between a 3-week and 4-week RAW build in historical PPV business.)
So, where are we now?
Last four RAWs
RAW 6/20/11 : 3.09
RAW 6/27/11 : 3.13
RAW 7/4/11 : 2.4
RAW 7/11/11 : 2.9
Unweighted, holiday-included Average: 2.88
Unweighted, holiday-excluded Average: 3.04
Performance Other PPVs below a 3.1 RAW Average
Hell in a Cell 2010: 2.78 RAW avg = 210 buys / 128 domestic buys
No Mercy 08: 2.98 RAW avg = 261 buys / 172 domestic buys
Survivor Series 08: 2.99 RAW avg = 319 buys / 211 domestic buys
Cyber Sunday 08: 3 RAW avg = 153 buys / 101 domestic buys
Unforgiven 08: 3.01 RAW avg = 211 buys / 139 domestic buys
One Night Stand 08: 3.06 RAW avg = 194 buys / 128 domestic buys
Average of those was 225,000 worldwide buys and 147 domestic buys but that was mostly 2008 numbers with 65% domestic. We're a lot closer to 50% now than we are to two-thirds. However, anything can happen.
-Chris Harrington
indeedwrestling@gmail.com
No comments:
Post a Comment