The next question is whether we can correlate who was in that last hour of Raw with when the largest viewership declines occurred. Obviously, this is not a perfect process. There are numerous events on television that are starting and ending through Raw which may impact the show's viewership from week-to-week and season-to-season. Furthermore, sometimes Raw viewership will spike for a certain segment (such as Shane McMahon's return) and decline after the hot moment has passed. Lastly, this analysis is looking at who was in the last two wrestling matches on Raw each week. It doesn't look at the final go-home segments (often promos). It doesn't look at who interfered in the match. It doesn't look at what was the promoted match or storyline of the show. It's an imperfect study and without having access to quarter-hour ratings, it's a very broad brushstroke to attempt to estimate a rather delicate topic. However, whilst disclaimers abound, Mookie ventures forth.
Methodology: divide out who was in the last two matches on Raw each week and correspond that with the viewership change in Hour 3 (versus Hour 2).
Average Hour Three Loss (9/1/14 to 6/6/16): -197,700 viewers. (This does not include the Blizzard Raw replay on 1/26/15.)
A low Index in this scenario is GOOD. (Note: Vince McMahon was included on here for his guest referee duties.)
Here is the overall rankings for people with 4+ matches in this dataset:
4+ MATCHES (FINAL + PENULTIMATE) ON RAW
| PERSON | OVERALL | AVG LOSS | INDEX | |
| 1 | R-Truth | 4 | (368,500) | 1.86 |
| 2 | Tyler Breeze | 5 | (326,200) | 1.65 |
| 3 | Sasha Banks | 7 | (316,000) | 1.60 |
| 4 | AJ Styles | 4 | (310,000) | 1.57 |
| 5 | Titus O'Neil | 7 | (296,000) | 1.50 |
| 6 | D-Von Dudley | 7 | (294,143) | 1.49 |
| 7 | Mark Henry | 4 | (258,750) | 1.31 |
| 8 | Big E | 21 | (253,048) | 1.28 |
| 9 | Darren Young | 5 | (250,800) | 1.27 |
| 10 | Bubba Ray Dudley | 7 | (250,000) | 1.26 |
| 11 | Jey Uso | 12 | (249,917) | 1.26 |
| 12 | Cesaro | 11 | (249,364) | 1.26 |
| 13 | The Miz | 12 | (245,583) | 1.24 |
| 14 | Naomi | 10 | (244,500) | 1.24 |
| 15 | Kane | 13 | (228,462) | 1.16 |
| 16 | Bray Wyatt | 8 | (222,625) | 1.13 |
| 17 | Kofi Kingston | 17 | (219,353) | 1.11 |
| 18 | Becky Lynch | 10 | (209,500) | 1.06 |
| 19 | The Big Show | 10 | (203,200) | 1.03 |
| 20 | Kevin Owens | 15 | (199,067) | 1.01 |
| 21 | Dean Ambrose | 25 | (198,600) | 1.00 |
| 22 | Ryback | 12 | (192,083) | 0.97 |
| 23 | Sin Cara | 6 | (190,000) | 0.96 |
| 24 | Damien Sandow | 6 | (185,667) | 0.94 |
| 25 | Neville | 10 | (185,000) | 0.94 |
| 26 | Randy Orton | 19 | (184,737) | 0.93 |
| 27 | Xavier Woods | 8 | (180,375) | 0.91 |
| 28 | Rusev | 12 | (178,250) | 0.90 |
| 29 | Seth Rollins | 31 | (176,065) | 0.89 |
| 30 | Fernando | 5 | (176,000) | 0.89 |
| 31 | Daniel Bryan | 7 | (174,286) | 0.88 |
| 32 | Jimmy Uso | 12 | (174,250) | 0.88 |
| 33 | John Cena | 22 | (170,364) | 0.86 |
| 34 | Nikki Bella | 9 | (169,667) | 0.86 |
| 35 | Paige | 8 | (166,500) | 0.84 |
| 36 | Kalisto | 8 | (163,750) | 0.83 |
| 37 | Luke Harper | 8 | (163,500) | 0.83 |
| 38 | Braun Strowman | 5 | (160,600) | 0.81 |
| 39 | Roman Reigns | 31 | (159,452) | 0.81 |
| 40 | Sheamus | 16 | (152,625) | 0.77 |
| 41 | Dolph Ziggler | 20 | (152,000) | 0.77 |
| 42 | Adam Rose | 7 | (150,000) | 0.76 |
| 43 | Chris Jericho | 4 | (146,750) | 0.74 |
| 44 | Stardust | 9 | (143,111) | 0.72 |
| 45 | Diego | 4 | (140,000) | 0.71 |
| 46 | Natalya | 4 | (131,500) | 0.67 |
| 47 | Konnor | 6 | (131,000) | 0.66 |
| 48 | Alberto Del Rio | 12 | (124,167) | 0.63 |
| 49 | Viktor | 7 | (122,857) | 0.62 |
| 50 | Curtis Axel | 4 | (122,250) | 0.62 |
| 51 | Alicia Fox | 4 | (122,000) | 0.62 |
| 52 | Brie Bella | 11 | (120,091) | 0.61 |
| 53 | Bad News Barrett | 6 | (106,333) | 0.54 |
| 54 | Tyson Kidd | 5 | (100,000) | 0.51 |
| 55 | Charlotte | 4 | (86,500) | 0.44 |
If you want to only look at people with 10+ matches here is the ranked list:
10+ MATCHES (FINAL + PENULTIMATE) ON RAW
| PERSON | OVERALL | AVG LOSS | INDEX |
| Big E | 21 | (253,048) | 1.28 |
| Jey Uso | 12 | (249,917) | 1.26 |
| Cesaro | 11 | (249,364) | 1.26 |
| The Miz | 12 | (245,583) | 1.24 |
| Naomi | 10 | (244,500) | 1.24 |
| Kane | 13 | (228,462) | 1.16 |
| Kofi Kingston | 17 | (219,353) | 1.11 |
| Becky Lynch | 10 | (209,500) | 1.06 |
| The Big Show | 10 | (203,200) | 1.03 |
| Kevin Owens | 15 | (199,067) | 1.01 |
| Dean Ambrose | 25 | (198,600) | 1.00 |
| Ryback | 12 | (192,083) | 0.97 |
| Neville | 10 | (185,000) | 0.94 |
| Randy Orton | 19 | (184,737) | 0.93 |
| Rusev | 12 | (178,250) | 0.90 |
| Seth Rollins | 31 | (176,065) | 0.89 |
| Jimmy Uso | 12 | (174,250) | 0.88 |
| John Cena | 22 | (170,364) | 0.86 |
| Roman Reigns | 31 | (159,452) | 0.81 |
| Sheamus | 16 | (152,625) | 0.77 |
| Dolph Ziggler | 20 | (152,000) | 0.77 |
| Alberto Del Rio | 12 | (124,167) | 0.63 |
| Brie Bella | 11 | (120,091) | 0.61 |
If you want to only look at people who were in the final match (i.e. the main event of Raw, though it's not always really positioned that way):
4+ MATCHES (FINAL) ON RAW
| final | avg loss | index | |
| Titus O'Neil | 4 | (357,000) | 180.62 |
| AJ Styles | 4 | (310,000) | 156.84 |
| Big E | 14 | (288,786) | 146.11 |
| Kofi Kingston | 12 | (285,500) | 144.45 |
| Ryback | 6 | (238,333) | 120.58 |
| Rusev | 6 | (229,000) | 115.86 |
| Cesaro | 6 | (227,500) | 115.10 |
| Bray Wyatt | 8 | (222,625) | 112.63 |
| The Big Show | 8 | (218,000) | 110.29 |
| Kane | 11 | (215,455) | 109.01 |
| Kevin Owens | 10 | (208,700) | 105.59 |
| Jey Uso | 6 | (207,667) | 105.07 |
| Jimmy Uso | 6 | (207,667) | 105.07 |
| Xavier Woods | 7 | (204,286) | 103.36 |
| Randy Orton | 18 | (200,000) | 101.19 |
| Dean Ambrose | 20 | (196,850) | 99.59 |
| Seth Rollins | 29 | (186,828) | 94.52 |
| John Cena | 21 | (185,143) | 93.67 |
| Roman Reigns | 29 | (180,448) | 91.30 |
| Neville | 6 | (173,333) | 87.70 |
| Sheamus | 11 | (170,455) | 86.24 |
| Daniel Bryan | 6 | (168,333) | 85.17 |
| Braun Strowman | 5 | (160,600) | 81.25 |
| Chris Jericho | 4 | (146,750) | 74.25 |
| Alberto Del Rio | 10 | (143,800) | 72.75 |
| Dolph Ziggler | 10 | (136,600) | 69.11 |
| Luke Harper | 4 | (132,000) | 66.78 |
| Stardust | 6 | (117,000) | 59.19 |
| Viktor | 4 | (91,500) | 46.29 |
| Konnor | 4 | (91,500) | 46.29 |
10+ MATCHES (FINAL) ON RAW
| final | avg loss | index | |
| Big E | 14 | (288,786) | 146.11 |
| Kofi Kingston | 12 | (285,500) | 144.45 |
| Kane | 11 | (215,455) | 109.01 |
| Kevin Owens | 10 | (208,700) | 105.59 |
| Randy Orton | 18 | (200,000) | 101.19 |
| Dean Ambrose | 20 | (196,850) | 99.59 |
| Seth Rollins | 29 | (186,828) | 94.52 |
| John Cena | 21 | (185,143) | 93.67 |
| Roman Reigns | 29 | (180,448) | 91.30 |
| Sheamus | 11 | (170,455) | 86.24 |
| Alberto Del Rio | 10 | (143,800) | 72.75 |
| Dolph Ziggler | 10 | (136,600) | 69.11 |
It shows that people like Randy Orton, Dean Ambrose, Seth Rollins, John Cena, Roman Reigns are near the middle of the pack while New Day has done poorly and Sheamus/ADR/Ziggler have done surprisingly well (in albeit fewer appearances).
Dataset: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gqeXLFMHKlsx_7_Ik_4SYx8yLWJBB35EjO4JGSrOo4c/edit?usp=sharing
Analysis by Chris Harrington @mookieghana (chris.harrington@gmail.com)
