Hogan's value to WCW PPV

Dave Meltzer, publisher of the Wrestling Observer newsletter, recently posted on the WONF4W message board:

Hogan pre-NWO was hardly a waste of money. PPV business made a ridiculous turnaround from pre-Hogan levels. Every Hogan house show drew tons more than anything WCW was doing without him.

He didn't turn ratings around much, but he was making millions and he drew more than he was making.

To illustrate Dave's point about WCW PPVs, here's WCW attendance & PPV buys/buyrate numbers 1987-2001.

Since readers tend to get grumpy when we talk about "buyrates", I've taken the liberty of converting the buyrates to buys. (I discuss the buys/buyrate issue in my entries on WCW and WWF PPV estimates.)

Keep in mind that the Universe of possible PPV subscribers wasn't static throughout this period, so there are more homes capable of getting a PPV in 1996 than 1991. However, that's one reason that intra-year comparisons are important, and tell a strong story too.

Baseline
1991: 5 non-Hogan Shows (avg 146k buys)
1992: 6 non-Hogan Shows (avg 111k buys)
1993: 7 non-Hogan Shows (avg 94k buys)

1994: 3 Hogan Shows (avg 189k buys) vs 4 non-Hogan Shows (avg 111k buys) = +69%
1995: 6 Hogan Shows (avg 141k buys) vs 3 non-Hogan Shows (avg 89k buys) = +59%
1996: 7 Hogan Shows (avg 251k buys) vs 3 non-Hogan Shows (avg 175k buys) = +43%
1997: 7 Hogan Shows (avg 348k buys) vs 5 non-Hogan Shows (avg 210k buys) = +66%
1994-1997: 42 Hogan Shows (avg 244k buys) vs 67 non-Hogan Shows (avg 152k buys) = +60%

When Hulk Hogan was wrestling on a WCW PPV, on average, there was an increase of more than 90,000 buys.  With 42 PPV events at $25/PPV (I'd have to go back to find the real PPV price) and the cable company taking half, that's $47M+ in PPV revenue for WCW driven by the Hogan on PPV effect.

Continuing with business comparisons, things are pretty equal in 1998, but honestly the company is hot.

1998: 8 Hogan Shows (avg 365,500 buys) vs 4 non-Hogan Shows (avg 341,250 buys) = +7%
1999: 6 Hogan Shows (avg 276,500 buys) vs 6 non-Hogan Shows (avg 205,000 buys) = +35%

Hogan's impact was minimal in 2000, but keep in mind the company was plummeting. While Hogan was on some these PPVs, he wasn't really the main event.  (Using the helpful spreadsheet from ProWrestlingHistory.) For instance:

* Superbrawl X (Sid/Hall/Jarrett was top; Hogan was wrestling Lex Luger as the "Featured Attraction")
* Slamboree 2000 (Jarrett/DDP&Arquette was top; Singles Match (Special Referee: Eric Bischoff) Kidman vs Hogan)
* GAB2000 (Jarrett/Nash was top; Retirement Match Vs. Title Shot Match (Special Referee: Horace Hogan) Kidman vs Hogan)

Basically, you end up with:
2000: Hogan on Top (80,000 buys avg in 2 shows), Hogan on Card (73,250 avg in 3 shows), no Hogan (80,000 in 7 shows).

So, it seems clear that Hulk Hogan was a real difference maker from 1994-1997.  The company grew strong in 1998 and 1999 but that was on the back of the nWo angle where Hogan played an integral role.

Other relevant WCW Links:

• WCW PPVs Star Ratings
• ProWrestlingHistory's PPV Spreadsheet
• WCW House Show Attendance by World Champion
• Downfall of WCW in Pictures

WWE Launch Day Subscriptions Estimates

The WWE Network launched yesterday. (For a full chronology of the lead-up to this huge event, please check out the other sixteen pieces I've written about it.)

Launch day was predictably bumpy. There were many complaints about access issues prompting the WWE to quickly throw partner MLB Advanced Media under the bus.
http://nypost.com/2014/02/24/wwes-streaming-network-slammed-on-debut/

“Major League Baseball Advanced Media (MLBAM), WWE’s technology partner, was overwhelmed and their systems have been unable to process most orders since 9 a.m. due to demand for WWE Network,” the company said in a statement.“MLBAM has been working aggressively to resolve this issue,” it added.

A Variety article published that afternoon added:

According to MLBAM, the initial demand at 9 a.m. Eastern exceeded anything the company had seen in its history and overloaded the company’s e-commerce processing system. Reps for WWE and MLBAM said all issues were resolved by mid-afternoon Eastern time.

For a few hours when you ordered the WWE Network, you received a "confirmation email" from the WWE. Here's mine from 2:35 PM (Central Timezone):



This was very interesting as Ian Hamilton pointed out, it appeared they were giving out sequential numbers starting somewhere north of 11100000. By Tracking them, as David Bixenspan set out to do, we could informally track subscriptions leading into Wrestlemania.... That is, until WWE wised up to our scheme.

Still, between 8 AM and 4 PM EST, WWE Confirmation Emails were sent out with Order Numbers. With more than fifty respondents, we had a sufficient dataset to start looking at the patterns:

Basically, the first order we heard about was 8:12 AM EST (11187725) and the last order was 4:02 PM EST (11317813).  So, our data suggests that over the course of about eight hours (8 AM-4 PM), there was more than 130,000 signups.

Observations:

1. Things really seemed to crash between 9 AM EST and 1 PM EST.  It seems that less than 11,000 orders were processed during those four hours.  (We have 8:59 AM EST at 11199730 and 1:18 PM EST at 11210618.)
2. It's not completely clear what the starting number was.  If we assume 11100000, then there was almost 90,000 orders prior to 8:12 AM EST.  That seems like a lot to me, especially for a service that wasn't officially online yet.  If that were true, it would imply 8AM-4PM signups were almost 70% higher (more like 220,000+).  I am becoming dubious about assuming that 11000001 equals order #1.  
3. 1:15 PM to 1:45 PM EST was probably catching up on the backlog of orders. Nearly 50,000 orders were processed in about twenty-five minutes (almost 33 orders per second).  This was really more likely the sum total of 4.5 hours worth of orders.
4. Things seem a lot more steady from 2 PM to 4 PM EST.  Order numbers jumped by about 46,500 during the final two hours of tracking with fairly similar hourly numbers: 2 PM to 3 PM: +24,000, 3 PM to 4 PM: +22,500.    
5. We run out of data just when things got interesting.  Did the pace of sign-ups increase again after 5 PM EST when people finished school and work and headed home?  What was the effect of all of the plugs for the Network during Monday Night Raw?  Did we see a post-show swell?

If we pretend that there was no change in order momentum (or that it averaged out from low to high to low again), the midpoint model would suggest that around 12:01 AM on 2/25/2014 the WWE Network final confirmation number would have been around 11439186.  That would end day one at a little over 251,000 signups (plus however many signed up before 8:15 AM EST.)  Some may choose to read that 439,186 signups, but I think that's way too generous. Either way, the point is rather moot because our trendline only covers about four hours of real data (8 AM-9 AM and 1 PM-4 PM).

Really, what this data tells us is that hardcore fans because they're the ones that are most likely to have signed up at the beginning of the service (say between launch and 2 PM), about 80,000 people signed up.  That's in line with what we would expect from "hardcore fans".

Also, even though the WWE Network launch was only supposed to be for US customers, international (especially Canadian and UK) customers found work-arounds (signing up through AppleTV, using Paypal, utilizing VPN/Proxy servers).  It's hard to really know how many int'l users "snuck" through, but consider that in our survey almost 17% of the users responded using a GMT timestamp.  I hardly believe that geographically our sample group was representative of the WWE Network usership at large, but it suggests that it would be entirely feasible that thousands, even tens of thousands, of first-day signups were from non-domestic customers.

> So, in your" expert" opinion, what's your guess for first-day signups for the WWE Network?

I'd guess that the WWE Network did somewhere between 250k and 350k signups for day one.

• If we trust the survey data, we know they had at least 130,000 by 4 PM.
• Going forward, just averaging 16,000/hour would have essentially doubled subscriptions to 260k by midnight.
• If they had a huge influx of new subscribers (say almost 50k/hour) between 9 PM and 11 PM, they could have hit 350k by midnight.

> Is that a good number?

Hard to say.  (Easy answer, right?)

• If they have 300,000 first-day subscribers that aren't just using the free trial and plan on actually subscribing (along with auto-renew), that's a decent number, especially since we're more than a month away from Wrestlemania.
• It will be important to look at conversions for "free trial" subscribers in one week.  Will we see a big influx in early March from new converts (or word-of-mouth)?  What happens in August when the first 6-months ran out?  How many people chose "auto-renew"?
• They still need to hit a million subscribers just to make the project break-even.  This week was the low-hanging fruit - hardcore fans, post-PPV buzz, post-Olympics big Raw with Hogan & UT & Brock drawing eyeballs. I figure new subscribers will trickle to a few thousand each day before surging again the week before Wrestlemania.
• My guess two months ago for full-year WWE Subscriber average was 415,000.  That wasn't to say they wouldn't be above 415k for part of the year (obviously during the WM season), but by the end of 2014, I thought they'd only be in the 400k-500k range.  I'm not sure that anything has convinced me otherwise... at least not yet.
• While it was inevitable that international subscribers were going to work hard to get in on the US launch, I don't believe that WWE was including those subscribers in their initial estimates for the overseas markets.  They needed at least 250,000 in those markets to break-even and I figure by Wrestlemania somewhere between 5%-10% of those int'l fans will may already be subscribing as "domestic" customers.

Do you have an order number you'd like to contribute to the mix?  Please submit through the Google Form at tinyurl.com/wweorders

Also, did anyone sign up for the free trial and also get a confirmation number?  I'd like to answer that question.

As far as we can tell, WWE stopped putting order numbers in the confirmation emails around 4 PM EST.

-Chris Harrington

email: chris.harrington@gmail.com

twitter: @mookieghana

Other recent pieces I've written:

WhatCulture: 10 Controversies of the WWE Network
Figure Four/Wrestling Observer: WWE Financials broken down #wrestlenomics style
Voices of Wrestling: 2013 WWE PPV Review & Financial Discussion

Wrestling Observer Word Clouds

I've become addicted to making word clouds on Wordle.  Specifically, I've been feeding in lots of Wrestling Observer text to see what happens.

1991-1992 Wrestling Observers

2012-2013 Wrestling Observers

MMA 2008-2014 (UFC, WEC, Affliction, Strikeforce, K-1/DREAM, Bellator, Elite XC)

TNA 2008-2013

Japan 2008-2013 (New Japan, All Japan, Dragon Gate, Hustle, Wrestle-1)

Mexico (AAA, CMLL, PDM) 2008-2013

Seven Thoughts about WWE 2013 Financials

We're in the middle of a big week for the WWE.

WWE CEO Vince McMahon and WWE CFO George Barrios led a conference call discussing 4th quarter earnings on Thursday (2/20). On Sunday (2/23), WWE will hold the last traditional PPV, Elimination Chamber.  The next day, at Monday Night Raw (2/24) Hulk Hogan will return to WWE television and that evening the WWE Network goes live!  (And let's not forget that WWE is still in the midst of important television rights negotiations. They're also trying to soothe angry MVPDs like Dish Network to convince them to carry Wrestlemania.)

Let's examine the state of the WWE going into an eventful and transformative period for the company.

Read the whole article at Wrestling Observer / Figure Four Online 

http://www.f4wonline.com/more/more-top-stories/96-wwe/35580-on-wrestling-2013-wwe-financials-examined-wrestlenomics-style

Pure WWF/WWE Financials 1994-2013

I've been assembling WWF/WWE Financials to provide more comprehensive looks.

Pure WWF/WWE Financials 1994-2013

START	5/1/1994	5/1/1995	5/1/1996	5/1/1997	5/1/1998
END	4/30/1995	4/30/1996	4/30/1997	4/30/1998	4/30/1999
FISCAL YEAR	FY1995	FY1996	FY1997	FY1998	FY1999
PPV EVENTS	5	12	12	12	12
PPV BUYS	1,868,900	2,831,700	2,252,200	2,936,100	5,365,100
REVENUE	$87.35	$85.82	$81.86	$126.23	$250.34
Net income (loss)	$(4.43)	$3.20	$(6.51)	$8.47	$56.03
EBIDTA		$7.71	-($4.96)	$12.15	$58.93
ATTENDANCE	1,163,259	931,954	1,060,740	1,576,112	2,273,701
EVENTS	347	247	199	218	199

START	5/1/1999	5/1/2000	5/1/2001	5/1/2002	5/1/2003
END	4/30/2000	4/30/2001	4/30/2002	4/30/2003	4/30/2004
FISCAL YEAR	FY2000	FY2001	FY2002	FY2003	FY2004
EVENTS	12	12	12	12	12
PPV BUYS	6,884,600	8,010,400	7,135,464	5,378,100	5,604,000
REVENUE	$377.90	$438.14	$409.62	$374.30	$374.91
Profit Contribution	$158.34	$188.86	$158.50	$136.90	$167.80
Net income (loss)  including XFL and the World	$58.91	$15.99	$42.23	-$(19.20)	$48.2
Net income (loss)  excluding XFL and the World	$59.58	$62.90	$37.60	$16.1	$49.6
EBIDTA	$87.24	$92.92	$55.23	$37.6	$85.9
Attendance	2,485,100	2,449,800	2,032,754	1,815,100	1,647,900
Events	206	212	237	327	329
Profit Contribution %	41.9%	43.1%	38.7%	36.6%	44.8%
EBIDTA %	23.1%	21.1%	13.5%	10.0%	22.9%

START	5/1/2004	5/1/2005	1/1/2006	1/1/2007	1/1/2008
END	4/30/2005	4/30/2006	12/31/2006	12/31/2007	12/31/2008
FISCAL YEAR	FY2005	FY2006	CY2006	CY2007	CY2008
PPV EVENTS	14	16	16	15	14
PPV BUYS	5,280,800	6,241,100	5,744,000	5,218,000	5,034,400
REVENUE	$366.43	$400.05	$415.30	$485.66	$526.46
Profit Contribution	$153.10	$172.90	$170.40	$186.90	$214.70
Net income (loss)	$39.10	$47.05	$48.80	$52.14	$45.42
EBIDTA	$62.20	$81.00	$74.30	$77.80	$83.40
ATTENDANCE	1,617,430	1,713,840	1,975,500	2,115,300	2,203,300
EVENTS	325	300	308	308	319
Profit Contribution %	41.8%	43.2%	41.0%	38.5%	40.8%
EBIDTA %	17.0%	20.2%	17.9%	16.0%	15.8%

START	1/1/2009	1/1/2010	1/1/2011	1/1/2012	1/1/2013
END	12/31/2009	12/31/2010	12/31/2011	12/31/2012	12/31/2013
FISCAL YEAR	CY2009	CY2010	CY2011	CY2012	CY2013
EVENTS	14	13	13	12	12
PPV BUYS	4,490,200	3,631,100	3,842,100	4,023,000	3,838,000
REVENUE	$475.16	$477.60	$483.90	$484.00	$508.00
Profit Contribution	$219.30	$203.40	$168.70	$199.60
Net income (loss)	$50.30	$53.50	$24.80	$31.40	$2.80
EBIDTA	$91.60	$94.00	$52.00	$63.20	$30.40
ATTENDANCE	2,383,800	2,155,700	1,976,500	1,854,100	1,919,500
EVENTS	342	327	321	314	321
Profit Contribution %	46.2%	42.6%	34.9%	41.2%
EBIDTA %	19.3%	19.7%	10.7%	13.1%	6.0%

Notes:

• Information was pulled from a combination of SEC filings, Trending Schedules and WWE Investor Presentations
• Note that while all periods are 12 months, 2006 is represented twice - a FY2006 (May 2005-April 2006) and a CY2006 (Jan 2006-Dec 2006)
• In 2013 the company switched from EBITDA to OIBDA but retained the same calculation. Profit Contribution was not listed on the 2013 Trending Schedule.
• Various charges 
• XFL and The World: $1.4M (FY2004), $35.6M (FY2003), $0.3M (FY2002), $48.5M (FY2001), $0.7M (FY2000)
• Hotel/Casino: bought $10.9M (FY1999), sold $11.3M (FY2000)
• WWE Studios: $11.7M (CY2013), $1.3M (CY2012), $23.4M (CY2011), $1.9M (CY2008), $15.7M (CY2007)
• Reversal of accrued licensing agent commissions: -$7.9M (FY2004)
• Legal Settlements: $7.0M (FY2001), $6.2M (FY2003), -$5.9M (FY2004)
• Early Termination of Office Space Lease: $0.7M (FY2003)
• On the 2/20/14 Conference Call, CFO George Barrios noted that WWE had spent about $12M on WWE Network development in 2013 which along with the film impairment charges is likely what drove the major dip in EBITDA/OIBDA and Net Income in 2013.

Revenue Streams by Segment

START	5/1/1999	5/1/2000	5/1/2001	5/1/2002	5/1/2003
END	4/30/2000	4/30/2001	4/30/2002	4/30/2003	4/30/2004
FISCAL YEAR	FY2000	FY2001	FY2002	FY2003	FY2004
PPV	$106.40	$128.20	$112.00	$91.10	$95.30
Live Events	$68.90	$82.00	$74.50	$72.90	$70.20
TV Rights	$12.10	$35.30	$53.30	$58.50	$71.00
Advertising	$77.90	$90.20	$83.70	$72.90	$59.50
Licensing + Other	$43.70	$37.40	$24.40	$22.50	$22.60
Home Entertainment	$20.00	$12.20	$13.60	$13.80	$21.40
Merchandise	$21.50	$22.00	$26.20	$22.50	$18.60
Publishing	$16.20	$18.40	$17.60	$15.20	$10.70
WWE.com	$11.10	$12.50	$4.40	$4.90	$5.60

START	5/1/2004	5/1/2005	1/1/2006	1/1/2007	1/1/2008
END	4/30/2005	4/30/2006	12/31/2006	12/31/2007	12/31/2008
FISCAL YEAR	FY2005	FY2006	CY2006	CY2007	CY2008
PPV	$85.50	$94.80	$93.60	$94.30	$91.40
Live Events	$78.70	$75.00	$83.70	$99.30	$105.70
TV Rights	$78.00	$81.50	$85.50	$92.40	$100.70
Advertising	$43.70	$22.60	$7.40	$5.90	$7.40
Licensing + Other	$21.60	$32.70	$32.70	$47.90	$61.80
Home Entertainment	$20.10	$42.60	$49.90	$53.70	$58.50
Merchandise	$18.00	$27.90	$35.50	$37.70	$37.00
Publishing	$12.20	$11.10	$12.40	$16.50	$15.40
WWE.com	$7.80	$9.70	$11.00	$16.20	$16.30
WWE Studios	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$16.00	$24.50
WWE 24/7	$0.80	$2.20	$3.60	$5.80	$7.80

START	1/1/2009	1/1/2010	1/1/2011	1/1/2012	1/1/2013
END	12/31/2009	12/31/2010	12/31/2011	12/31/2012	12/31/2013
FISCAL YEAR	CY2009	CY2010	CY2011	CY2012	CY2013
PPV	$80.00	$70.20	$78.30	$83.60	$82.50
Live Events	$108.80	$104.60	$104.70	$103.70	$111.50
TV Rights	$111.90	$127.00	$131.50	$139.50	$160.90
Advertising	$7.70	$5.90	$1.10	$1.40	$2.50
Licensing + Other	$46.80	$54.30	$56.80	$48.80	$46.40
Home Entertainment	$39.40	$32.10	$30.40	$33.00	$24.30
Merchandise	$35.80	$32.40	$33.90	$33.60	$34.90
Publishing	$13.50	$11.00	$7.70	$6.00	$5.70
WWE.com	$16.80	$14.90	$12.50	$19.70	$23.00
WWE Studios	$7.70	$19.60	$20.90	$7.90	$10.80
WWE COD	$6.80	$5.60	$6.10	$6.80	$5.50

Notes:

• Information was pulled from a combination of SEC filings, Trending Schedules and WWE Investor Presentations
• Note that while all periods are 12 months, 2006 is represented twice - a FY2006 (May 2005-April 2006) and a CY2006 (Jan 2006-Dec 2006)
• I would recommend looking at TV Rights+Advertising together.  TV Rights represent both domestic and international TV Rights deals.
• Merchandise is a combination of Venue Merchandise and WWEShop and Catalog Sales
• Licensing + Other is Licensing plus Consumer Products Other
• WWE 24/7 is really the Live and Televised Entertainment Other category (which included WWE Classics on Demand, fka WWE 24/7)

Please feel free to use these numbers for your own analysis and articles! 

It would be kind that if should you choose to use these numbers as a "source of truth", please link back to this page.  I've tried my best to verify the numbers, and where there were changes, use the latest version of the data.  I will try to post corrections and additional information here in the future.

-Chris Harrington

twitter: @mookieghana

email: chris.harrington@gmail.com

WWE Raw Ratings (three year look) with graphs by wrestler

I wrote a new piece at WhatCulture looking at the top Raw Viewership movers over a three-year period.  I refreshed all of my data and included some rating change calculations (as opposed to just viewership #s) so I would have a deeper dataset that covered more weeks.  Then I made an Excel macro that looked at the trending data (red dots) vs individual observations (blue dots) for the top 90 appearing wrestlers which you can see by clicking on individual's names.  (Full piece up at https://sites.google.com/site/chrisharrington/mookieghana-prowrestlingstatistics/wwe_raw_ratings_2011_2013 )

Wrestler	Count	Average
AJ	48	3,354
Aksana	9	(293,667)
Alberto Del Rio	119	25,218
Alex Riley	37	161,911
Alicia Fox	29	(188,556)
Antonio Cesaro	44	(139,364)
Battle Royal	18	78,166
Beth Phoenix	20	(125,200)
Big E Langston	15	(95,267)
Big Show	74	158,822
Brad Maddox	16	178,813
Bray Wyatt	10	(178,600)
Brie Bella	39	(252,796)
Brock Lesnar	23	450,435
Brodus Clay	48	(75,083)
Chris Jericho	58	78,840
Christian	34	(36,176)
CM Punk	158	272,788
Cody Rhodes	71	(104,573)
Curtis Axel	14	222,786
Damien Sandow	47	(164,000)
Daniel Bryan	142	47,800
Darren Young	28	(129,571)
David Otunga	51	(46,911)
Dean Ambrose	50	154,048
Dolph Ziggler	140	(25,618)
Drew McIntyre	27	(167,082)
Edge	14	122,484
Epico	22	(208,955)
Evan Bourne	26	(233,437)
Eve Torres	61	(82,497)
Ezekiel Jackson	10	62,095
Fandango	26	(204,308)
Great Khali	31	(107,965)
Heath Slater	53	(62,335)
HHH	58	349,119
Jack Swagger	89	(120,165)
Jerry Lawler	29	158,108
Jim Ross	9	417,657
Jinder Mahal	29	(156,138)
John Cena	201	389,007
John Laurinaitis	37	219,892
John Morrison	45	(86,383)
Justin Gabriel	23	13,998
Kaitlyn	26	(77,846)
Kane	93	50,746
Kelly Kelly	29	(191,425)
Kofi Kingston	90	(188,258)
Layla	26	(231,994)
Mark Henry	68	48,779
Maryse	13	(148,950)
Mason Ryan	9	(226,111)
Melina	12	(105,809)
Michael Cole	27	84,462
Michael McGillicutty	18	(293,749)
Mick Foley	9	543,000
Miz	151	125,606
Naomi	11	(364,364)
Natalya	34	(203,896)
Nexus	9	149,892
Nikki Bella	31	(265,131)
Paul Heyman	50	319,540
Primo	24	(192,125)
Randy Orton	112	102,425
Rey Mysterio	39	8,340
Ricardo Rodriguez	13	(29,462)
Rock	35	431,514
Roman Reigns	50	170,528
R-Truth	94	12,302
RVD	9	(52,000)
Ryback	64	104,469
Santino Marella	74	(208,406)
Seth Rollins	51	160,753
Shawn Michaels	16	267,188
Sheamus	125	11,769
Sin Cara	37	(65,865)
Stephanie McMahon	15	167,667
Tamina	12	(88,984)
Ted DiBiase	18	(95,475)
Tensai	38	(48,421)
Titus O'Neil	28	(138,500)
Tyson Kidd	20	(103,444)
Undertaker	15	474,933
Usos	22	(194,307)
Vickie Guerrero	52	89,955
Vince McMahon	25	334,790
Vladimir Kozlov	12	(11,460)
Wade Barrett	65	66,828
Zack Ryder	66	(170,888)
Zeb Colter	9	(87,556)

Please note that these numbers are over three years, include overrun, are evenly weighted and include some noise (such as video packages).  I've said it before and I'll say it again: It's an imperfect science.  But there's some interesting things to be see, particularly in the 3-month trend lines.

For instance, look at R-Truth:

You can see how when he started working against Cena & the Rock, his numbers were huge.  Then they returned to normal, which is no real impact.  This says a lot that if WWE puts you in the spotlight, especially in the overrun segment, you're going to seem like a star.  The question is just can you make a difference over the long run, especially when you're not in just in the top slot?

Another interesting test case is Mark Henry.  .  

When he's treated like a main eventer, there's flashes of being a big deal, but other times, he's just another guy

It's easy to contrast that with John Cena who is always large and in charge.  

This is a three-month trending line (with a minimum of four appearance to earn a red dot) so you'll see a complete line even though Cena has been out periodically for his injuries.

And if we're going to talk about top guys, behold Randall Orton:

At live events he certainly gets loud reactions, but he hasn't been someone who meant a lot over the long haul, at least not since 2012.  You do see the swell towards the end of the dataset (which went through 10/7/13) where he was increasingly returning the top of the card to feud with (who else) John Cena and Big Show.

Speaking of Paul Wight:

Big Show actually made my top 16 positive rating movers list.

That's unlike some of the newer faces - Dolph Ziggler, Big E Langston, Cesaro, Fandango, Sandow:

Then you have the divas, which are often put in the death spot.  And it shows.

Next to Cena, CM Punk was probably the next regular performer with a strong track record:

The other proven group was The Shield (i'll show three, but it's all really the same story):

Lastly, there's Mr. Beardhat. (Seriously, what the hell?!)

Daniel Bryan's numbers aren't stunning.  Again, it's going to be function of when you're pushed and when you're in the overrun segments, but until the last quarter, he was below average.  However, the wild swings suggest there might be some momentum and future for him as a top level guy; we'll just have to see how it plays out!

Certainly, some food for thought.

A lousy response from ROH COO Joe Koff about Domestic Violence

On yesterday's edition of Live Audio Wrestling, hosts Dan Lovranski and Jason Agnew interviewed WWE performer Damien Sandow, wrestling and MMA writer Dave Meltzer and Ring of Honor COO Jeff Koff.

You can listen to the entire episode on the Fight Network website or download the MP3 directly.

What has been noteworthy, was a two minutes section where ROH COO Koff discussed the the TMZ story that Matt Hardy and wife Reby Sky were arrested for assault and battery on New Year's Eve.

The section of the interview being discussed starts at 1 hour 17 minutes in and last about two minutes.

Here is my transcription from the conversation:

LAW: "Recently, there was a very public story involving Matt Hardy and his wife. What, is there any reaction from Ring of Honor's point? I mean, what do you do in this situation where there technically isn't any charges filed but it does become a public story when it shows up on TMZ?" 

Koff: "Yeah, you know what, it did appear on TMZ and did happen. Of course it happened so much earlier than when it was finally reported."

LAW: "Right." 

Koff: "Umm.. You know, I gotta tell you something John, there's really not a lot about it. I mean I saw the stuff on TMZ and I saw a couple of facebook, you know, comments about Matt wrestling, in, you know, Philadelphia. Um, I think it's really not a big deal. Um, I don't have a position on that and I mean, I think that charges were dropped, um. You never want to get involved in domestic stuff, in domestic relationships, and domestic disputes. But if the court of law, or the judicial system could find no fault with it, um, you know, I don't feel that's something we necessarily have to take a stance." 

LAW: "Alright. Fair enough." 

Koff: "I'm not shirking that, I'm just saying that it wasn't as big as... I think the fact that CM Punk said that he's wasn't going to wrestle for WWE, or when that story came out around that same time, I think it kind of overshadowed it." 

LAW: "Well, I think.. you know, when it comes to domestic violence, it's obviously a very sensitive topic for many people. And it's obviously one that's very different to react to-" 

Koff: "I mean had the outcome to been different, you know, from a judicial standpoint or, you know, a charge standpoint, I can accept that. but really it was just a domestic battle. You know they're two wrestlers, they're probably very physical people." 

LAW: "OK. Interesting.... analogy there... so..."

I do agree with Todd Martin (who first brought up the interview on the F4W board) that Koff's response on the matter is completely inadequate, especially the CM Punk analogy and the really ridiculous comments at the end about "physical people".

Koff had an opportunity to address the situation and did a terrible job representing his organization.  

He didn't need to talk about the specific incident, but he should have sent a strong message about the subject.  He just had to say something like, "We obviously have no tolerance for domestic abuse and we will always take that subject seriously. We have discussed this incident with both Matt & Reby and while no charges were ultimately filed, we made it clear that we were alarmed about this situation and the health and safety of both of them."

What he ended up saying was both embarrassing and came across as quite flippant when dealing with an incident that displayed some dangerous and alarming behavior.

I would encourage you listen to the interview (1:17:00 - 1:19:00) as the text may or may not fully capture the conversation.