There's two subjects which are critically important to the WWE's future (Ratings/Viewership and WWE Network)
WWE RATINGS AND VIEWERSHIP
Live viewership of WWE’s flagship program, Monday night’s Raw, and their secondary show, Thursday night’s SmackDown, were down through Q3.Raw Ratings
Year
|
July
|
August
|
September
|
2012
|
3.35
|
3.07
|
2.83
|
2013
|
2.97
|
3.06
|
2.84
|
2014
|
2.99
|
2.96
|
2.79
|
2015
|
2.66
|
2.71
|
2.41
|
Raw Viewership
Year
|
July
|
August
|
September
|
2012
|
4,910,000
|
4,370,000
|
4,040,000
|
2013
|
4,000,000
|
4,200,000
|
3,850,000
|
2014
|
4,320,000
|
4,120,000
|
3,920,000
|
2015
|
3,670,000
|
3,790,000
|
3,355,000
|
Regarding live Monday night viewership, July was down 15%, and August was down 8% and September was down 14%.
SmackDown Ratings
Year
|
July
|
August
|
September
|
2012
|
1.92
|
1.89
|
1.90
|
2013
|
1.79
|
1.90
|
1.92
|
2014
|
1.91
|
1.88
|
1.89
|
2015
|
1.70
|
1.65
|
1.53
|
SmackDown Viewership
Year
|
July
|
August
|
September
|
2012
|
2,780,000
|
2,670,000
|
2,780,000
|
2013
|
2,410,000
|
2,600,000
|
2,630,000
|
2014
|
2,720,000
|
2,620,000
|
2,630,000
|
2015
|
2,320,000
|
2,210,000
|
WWE prefers to report on their TV rating while incorporating in the “3+Days DVR” viewing. It paints a significantly different picture of how things are going.
For Q1’15, WWE reported that the Raw rating was 3.4. Meanwhile, the actual live Monday night ratings for Raw was a 2.97 average. For Q2’15, WWE reported that the Raw rating was 3.2 while the actual live Monday night rating for Raw was a 2.69 average.
It’s increasingly apparent that a larger and larger portion of WWE’s reported television ratings audience is watching Raw on DVR. However, whether you look at the metrics with or without the DVR audience included, overall interest in WWE, especially with their flagship three-show Raw show is down.
And this has been the third consecutive quarter for declining television ratings for WWE which proves that it’s not as simple as just blaming popular sporting events.
- What is the WWE’s viewpoint on why their product is attracting less and less viewers while rights fees for WWE programming have grown?
- How does this contraction in weekly viewership correspond to ability to attract and retain new subscribers to the WWE Network?
- Is it still truly feasible to insist that the WWE Network can achieve an annual average of three to four million subscribers in the near-term?
- What impact does the declining ratings have on the ability for WWE to negotiate increased rights fees in the next round of discussions with the television networks?
- Is there a contradiction between WWE’s positioning as “DVR-proof live event entertainment” while ratings are falling and the fact that DVR viewership is compromising a growing proportion (almost 10% of the rating)?
- Is there concern around audience fatigue in the era of three-hour Raw as we’re seeing some of the lowest non-holiday live television ratings since 1997?
- Is it surprising that SmackDown ratings are continuing to drop despite moving from Friday to Thursday nights?
- What is the latest on SmackDown moving to the USA Network during Q1’16 and what night of the week would the show air on?
- What is the attitude of USA Network towards WWE programming in light of the Tough Enough failing to break the one million viewers mark during several weeks of the reality contest?
INTERNATIONAL TELEVISION / WWE NETWORK
WWE announced that beginning Monday, November 2, the WWE Network would be available in India. However, for 2015 and 2016, live WWE pay-per-view events would not be able to watch on the WWE Network until 24 hours after their aired.Among WWE’s list of Key Objectives is “communicating plans for the WWE Network in Germany, Japan, India, China and Thailand.” Already, this year WWE made significant progress on rolling out the WWE Network internationally by launching the service in the United Kingdom and Ireland (January) along with Italy and Malaysia (July).
Obviously, with the conference call taking place prior to the WWE Network India launch, the company has created a useful talking point for Q4 without having to actually report on the progress. However, WWE could add some color on how the roll-out of WWE Network went in Italy and Malaysia.
WWE Network Metrics
| Ending | paid subscribers | domestic | international | qtr avg paid | qtr gross additions | qtr churn |
| 6/30/2015 | 1,156,100 | 939,300 | 216,800 | 1,215,170 | 337,300 | (508,400) |
| 3/31/2015 | 1,327,000 | 1,131,000 | 196,000 | 927,000 | 795,000 | (284,000) |
| 12/31/2014 | 816,000 | 772,000 | 44,000 | 721,000 | 336,000 | (251,000) |
| 9/30/2014 | 731,359 | 702,883 | 28,476 | 723,174 | 286,000 | (255,000) |
| 6/30/2014 | 699,752 | 699,752 | - | 665,000 | 349,000 | (144,000) |
| 3/31/2014 | 495,000 | 495,000 | - | 147,000 | 519,000 | (24,000) |
- What is the company's expectations for the WWE Network in India and does the company project this marketplace would be the third largest international marketplace behind Canada and UK/Ireland?
- Currently WWE Network has just over 200,000 registered international paid subscribers - what does the company envision as a realistic ceiling in the near-term?
- Will there be any unique distribution mechanisms for the WWE Network in India developed for the mobile marketplace akin to what other services such as YouTube have done?
- What portion of WWE Network international subscriptions are coming from new marketplaces in 2015 such as UK/Ireland but also specifically other 2015 launches - specifically Italy and Malaysia?
- With the large international television rights contracts from India, does launching the WWE Network in November negatively impact that relationship and how will a 24-hour blackout period for PPVs affect potential subscriber's interest in ordering this WWE Network?
- Will moving live pay-per-views to the WWE Network weakened the ability to negotiate increased international television rights in the internatinoal marketplace when the current deals expires?
- Why did WWE decide to go with $9.99 pricing for the WWE Network in India when the company has demonstrated a willingness to pursue different local pricing mechanisms in the Middle East, Canada, United Kingdom and Ireland?
- What is the update on WWE's plans for rolling out the WWE Network in marketplaces such as Germany, Japan and China and will there be significant progress on these goals before the end of 2015?
- For launching the WWE Network in Japan, what has the WWE learned from the experiences of the pro-wrestling subscription service "New Japan World" in that country?
- Given that the company already provides monthly updates on live event attendance, pay-per-view buys, social media metrics, and home entertainment shipments, when will WWE begin providing monthly updates on the number of WWE Network subscribers?
- Will WWE confirm what portion of the growth in international subscribers corresponds with declines in domestic subscribers as the users shift their accounts now that the WWE Network is available in their local marketplace?
- Based on latest information, what is the company's expectation for the Q4 trendline for WWE Network subscribers and will it be marginal growth or contraction over the latest Q3 number?
- After all of the audience surveying the company has done on the WWE Network, what has the company learned and when would the new features, footage or attractions be rolled out to the WWE Network and how will these changes be communicated to their potential subscriber base?
- What's happening with WWE's lawsuit against Thailand's CTH concerning the millions in unpaid international television rights fees and are there any other international distributors which are significantly behind on their payments?
Chris Harrington (chris.harrington@gmail.com)
@mookieghana (Twitter)
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