The Wrestlenomics of 2014 G1 Climax Tournament

I haven't listened to Rich & Joe's Preview Show at Voices of Wrestling nor do I plan to watch any of the New Japan Pro Wrestling coverage on USTREAM. However, that doesn't mean I won't compete in the excellent G1 PICK 'EM TOURNAMENT! But how does an ignorant gaijin like myself know who they should choose? Obviously, we're going to harness THE AWESOME POWER OF WRESTLENOMICS.

(I literally googled "cheesy lightning bolt graphic" to find that gem.)

There are 112 matches in the G1 tournament.  We know the lineups for 110 and the last two are the wrestlers with the most points wrestling for 1st/2nd place and 3rd/4th place. Unfortunately, news broke today that Kota Ibushi has officially been removed as a competitor (due to the lingering effects of a concussion). We don't know the replacement.  Therefore, I ran my simulation assuming that Kota was in the tournament, and then flipped the few matches he won back to his competitor (woohoo! Festus gets some points!).

I started by pulling all NJPW cards since January 2013 from CageMatch. That covered 176 events and 1,329 matches. This included over 125 wrestlers, but only about eighty with 5 or more matches.  I calculated everyone's win/loss records for singles/tag matches since January 2013.

New Japan Pro Wrestling - Win/Loss Records since January 2013 (5+ matches)

Next, I calculated "feud statistics" looking at everyone's individual singles records against one another along with tag results. (I learned, for instance, that Sho Tanaka and Yohei Komatsu have had 26 singles matches during this time where they racked up a stunning 21 draws.  For those counting, Komatsu is ahead 3:2 in terms of wins since January 2013.) Among G1 competitors, Minoru Suzuki and Toru Yano are split 3-3 in singles matches and Okada leads Tanahashi 2:1. (Again, the timeframe is just since January 2013.)

For each match I looked at several factors:

• What are their singles records against each other?
• What are their tag records when they faced off with each other/
• Who has the higher overall singles winning percentage?

Night 1 - 7/21/14

• A Block: Tomohiro Ishii (41%) vs. Bad Luck Fale (75%) = no singles encounters; 8 tag matches (Tied at 4 matches each) --- Bad Luck Fale
• A Block: Shelton Benjamin (47%) vs. Doc Gallows (0%) = no singles encounters; 3 tag matches (Benjamin leads 2:1) --- Shelton Benjamin
• B Block: Hiroyoshi Tenzan (25%) vs. Karl Anderson (40%) = 2 singles matches (Anderson leads 2:0); 4 tag matches (Anderson leads 4:0) --- Karl Anderson
• A Block: Satoshi Kojima (50%) vs. Yuji Nagata (63%) = no singles encounters; 33 tag matches (Kojima leads 21:12) --- Yuji Nagata
• B Block: Toru Yano (44%) vs. Minoru Suzuki (62%) = 6 singles matches (Tied at 3 matches each); 48 tag matches (Minoru Suzuki leads 24:23) --- Minoru Suzuki
• B Block: Tetsuya Naito (57%) vs. Yujiro Takahashi (39%) = 3 singles matches (Naito leads 2:1); 37 tag matches (Naito leads 27:10) --- Tetsuya Naito
• B Block: Togi Makabe (56%) vs. Hirooki Goto (50%) = 1 singles match (Makabe leads 1:0); 5 tag matches (Makabe leads 4:1) --- Togi Makabe
• A Block: Hiroshi Tanahashi (65%) vs. Kota Ibushi (50%) = no singles encounters; 1 tag match (Ibushi leads 1:0) --- Hiroshi Tanahashi
• A Block: Shinsuke Nakamura (75%) vs. Katsuyori Shibata (61%) = no singles encounters; no tag encounters --- Shinsuke Nakamura
• B Block: A.J. Styles (100%) vs. Kazuchika Okada (69%) = 3 singles matches (Styles leads 3:0); 2 tag matches (Styles leads 2:0) --- A.J. Styles

Night 2 - 7/23/14

• A Block: Satoshi Kojima (50%) vs. Tomohiro Ishii (41%) = 2 singles matches (Tied at 1 matches each); 3 tag matches (Ishii leads 2:1) --- Tomohiro Ishii
• A Block: Shelton Benjamin (47%) vs. Bad Luck Fale (75%) = 1 singles match (Fale leads 1:0); 1 tag match (Fale leads 1:0) --- Bad Luck Fale
• B Block: Hirooki Goto (50%) vs. Yujiro Takahashi (39%) = no singles encounters; 22 tag matches (Goto leads 17:5) --- Hirooki Goto
• B Block: Tetsuya Naito (57%) vs. Lance Archer (33%) = no singles encounters; no tag encounters --- Tetsuya Naito
• A Block: Yuji Nagata (63%) vs. Kota Ibushi (50%) = 1 singles match (Nagata leads 1:0); no tag encounters --- Yuji Nagata
• A Block: Shinsuke Nakamura (75%) vs. Davey Boy Smith, Jr. (50%) = 3 singles matches (Nakamura leads 2:1); 10 tag matches (Smith leads 6:4) --- Shinsuke Nakamura
• B Block: Toru Yano (44%) vs. A.J. Styles (100%) = no singles encounters; no tag encounters --- A.J. Styles
• B Block: Hiroyoshi Tenzan (25%) vs. Kazuchika Okada (69%) = no singles encounters; 3 tag matches (Tenzan leads 3:0) --- Kazuchika Okada
• B Block: Togi Makabe (56%) vs. Karl Anderson (40%) = no singles encounters; 40 tag matches (Anderson leads 28:12) --- Togi Makabe
• A Block: Hiroshi Tanahashi (65%) vs. Doc Gallows (0%) = no singles encounters; 22 tag matches (Gallows leads 15:7) --- Hiroshi Tanahashi

Night 3 - 7/25/14

• A Block: Kota Ibushi (50%) vs. Doc Gallows (0%) = no singles encounters; 1 tag match (Gallows leads 1:0) --- Doc Gallows (Originally had Ibushi winning but switched prediction due to his injury)
• B Block: Lance Archer (33%) vs. Karl Anderson (40%) = no singles encounters; 9 tag matches (Anderson leads 5:4) --- Karl Anderson
• B Block: Hiroyoshi Tenzan (25%) vs. Yujiro Takahashi (39%) = 1 singles match (Yujiro Takahashi leads 1:0); 13 tag matches (Tenzan leads 12:1) --- Yujiro Takahashi
• A Block: Tomohiro Ishii (41%) vs. Shelton Benjamin (47%) = no singles encounters; 10 tag matches (Ishii leads 6:4) --- Shelton Benjamin
• B Block: Tetsuya Naito (57%) vs. Toru Yano (44%) = 1 singles match (Yano leads 1:0); 7 tag matches (Naito leads 6:1) --- Tetsuya Naito
• A Block: Katsuyori Shibata (61%) vs. Davey Boy Smith, Jr. (50%) = 1 singles match (Shibata leads 1:0); no tag encounters --- Katsuyori Shibata
• A Block: Yuji Nagata (63%) vs. Bad Luck Fale (75%) = no singles encounters; 4 tag matches (Nagata leads 3:1) --- Bad Luck Fale
• B Block: Hirooki Goto (50%) vs. Minoru Suzuki (62%) = 1 singles match (Minoru Suzuki leads 1:0); no tag encounters --- Minoru Suzuki
• A Block: Hiroshi Tanahashi (65%) vs. Satoshi Kojima (50%) = 1 singles match (Kojima leads 1:0); no tag encounters --- Hiroshi Tanahashi
• B Block: Togi Makabe (56%) vs. Kazuchika Okada (69%) = 2 singles matches (Tied at 1 matches each); 18 tag matches (Makabe leads 13:5) --- Togi Makabe

Night 4 - 7/26/14

• A Block: Satoshi Kojima (50%) vs. Bad Luck Fale (75%) = no singles encounters; 1 tag match (Fale leads 1:0) --- Bad Luck Fale
• A Block: Shelton Benjamin (47%) vs. Davey Boy Smith, Jr. (50%) = no singles encounters; no tag encounters --- Davey Boy Smith, Jr.
• B Block: Hiroyoshi Tenzan (25%) vs. Minoru Suzuki (62%) = 1 singles match (Tenzan leads 1:0); 1 tag match (Tenzan leads 1:0) --- Hiroyoshi Tenzan
• B Block: Hirooki Goto (50%) vs. Toru Yano (44%) = no singles encounters; 8 tag matches (Goto leads 6:2) --- Hirooki Goto
• A Block: Kota Ibushi (50%) vs. Tomohiro Ishii (41%) = 1 singles match (Ishii leads 1:0); 4 tag matches (Ibushi leads 4:0) --- Tomohiro Ishii (originally had Ibushi winning but his injury changed this)
• B Block: Togi Makabe (56%) vs. Lance Archer (33%) = 1 singles match (Makabe leads 1:0); 1 tag match (Archer leads 1:0) --- Togi Makabe
• A Block: Yuji Nagata (63%) vs. Shinsuke Nakamura (75%) = 1 singles match (Nakamura leads 1:0); 1 tag match (Nagata leads 1:0) --- Shinsuke Nakamura
• B Block: Tetsuya Naito (57%) vs. A.J. Styles (100%) = no singles encounters; no tag encounters --- A.J. Styles
• B Block: Kazuchika Okada (69%) vs. Karl Anderson (40%) = 2 singles matches (Okada leads 2:0); 18 tag matches (Anderson leads 12:6) --- Kazuchika Okada
• A Block: Hiroshi Tanahashi (65%) vs. Katsuyori Shibata (61%) = 1 singles match (Tanahashi leads 1:0); 4 tag matches (Tied at 2 matches each) --- Hiroshi Tanahashi

Night 5 - 7/28/14

• A Block: Tomohiro Ishii (41%) vs. Doc Gallows (0%) = no singles encounters; 4 tag matches (Tied at 2 matches each) --- Tomohiro Ishii
• B Block: Hiroyoshi Tenzan (25%) vs. Lance Archer (33%) = no singles encounters; 20 tag matches (Tenzan leads 12:7) --- Lance Archer
• A Block: Satoshi Kojima (50%) vs. Davey Boy Smith, Jr. (50%) = 1 singles match (Smith leads 1:0); 20 tag matches (Kojima leads 12:7) --- Davey Boy Smith, Jr.
• B Block: Minoru Suzuki (62%) vs. Yujiro Takahashi (39%) = 1 singles match (Minoru Suzuki leads 1:0); 10 tag matches (Minoru Suzuki leads 6:4) --- Minoru Suzuki
• B Block: Toru Yano (44%) vs. Karl Anderson (40%) = 1 singles match (Yano leads 1:0); 4 tag matches (Anderson leads 4:0) --- Toru Yano
• A Block: Katsuyori Shibata (61%) vs. Shelton Benjamin (47%) = 1 singles match (Benjamin leads 1:0); no tag encounters --- Katsuyori Shibata
• B Block: Hirooki Goto (50%) vs. A.J. Styles (100%) = no singles encounters; no tag encounters --- A.J. Styles
• A Block: Hiroshi Tanahashi (65%) vs. Bad Luck Fale (75%) = no singles encounters; 16 tag matches (Fale leads 12:4) --- Bad Luck Fale
• A Block: Kota Ibushi (50%) vs. Shinsuke Nakamura (75%) = 1 singles match (Nakamura leads 1:0); 1 tag match (Ibushi leads 1:0) --- Shinsuke Nakamura
• B Block: Tetsuya Naito (57%) vs. Kazuchika Okada (69%) = 1 singles match (Okada leads 1:0); 43 tag matches (Naito leads 28:14) --- Kazuchika Okada

Night 6 - 7/31/14

• A Block: Doc Gallows (0%) vs. Bad Luck Fale (75%) = no singles encounters; no tag encounters --- Bad Luck Fale
• A Block: Yuji Nagata (63%) vs. Davey Boy Smith, Jr. (50%) = no singles encounters; no tag encounters --- Yuji Nagata
• B Block: Togi Makabe (56%) vs. Yujiro Takahashi (39%) = 3 singles matches (Makabe leads 2:1); 43 tag matches (Makabe leads 38:5) --- Togi Makabe
• A Block: Satoshi Kojima (50%) vs. Katsuyori Shibata (61%) = 1 singles match (Kojima leads 1:0); no tag encounters --- Katsuyori Shibata
• B Block: Hirooki Goto (50%) vs. Karl Anderson (40%) = no singles encounters; 20 tag matches (Goto leads 11:9) --- Hirooki Goto
• B Block: Minoru Suzuki (62%) vs. Lance Archer (33%) = no singles encounters; no tag encounters --- Minoru Suzuki
• A Block: Shinsuke Nakamura (75%) vs. Shelton Benjamin (47%) = 3 singles matches (Nakamura leads 2:1); 20 tag matches (Benjamin leads 11:9) --- Shinsuke Nakamura
• B Block: Hiroyoshi Tenzan (25%) vs. A.J. Styles (100%) = no singles encounters; no tag encounters --- A.J. Styles
• B Block: Kazuchika Okada (69%) vs. Toru Yano (44%) = 1 singles match (Okada leads 1:0); 1 tag match (Okada leads 1:0) --- Kazuchika Okada
• A Block: Hiroshi Tanahashi (65%) vs. Tomohiro Ishii (41%) = 2 singles matches (Tied at 1 matches each); 32 tag matches (Tanahashi leads 20:12) --- Hiroshi Tanahashi

Night 7 - 8/1/14

• A Block: Satoshi Kojima (50%) vs. Shelton Benjamin (47%) = no singles encounters; 1 tag match (Kojima leads 1:0) --- Satoshi Kojima
• B Block: Toru Yano (44%) vs. Lance Archer (33%) = no singles encounters; 2 tag matches (Yano leads 2:0) --- Toru Yano
• B Block: Yujiro Takahashi (39%) vs. Karl Anderson (40%) = 1 singles match (Anderson leads 1:0); 3 tag matches (Anderson leads 3:0) --- Karl Anderson
• A Block: Davey Boy Smith, Jr. (50%) vs. Doc Gallows (0%) = no singles encounters; 8 tag matches (Gallows leads 5:3) --- Davey Boy Smith, Jr.
• B Block: Hiroyoshi Tenzan (25%) vs. Hirooki Goto (50%) = no singles encounters; 1 tag match (Goto leads 1:0) --- Hirooki Goto
• A Block: Kota Ibushi (50%) vs. Bad Luck Fale (75%) = no singles encounters; 3 tag matches (Fale leads 2:1) --- Bad Luck Fale
• B Block: Togi Makabe (56%) vs. Tetsuya Naito (57%) = no singles encounters; 1 tag match (Naito leads 1:0) --- Tetsuya Naito
• B Block: Minoru Suzuki (62%) vs. A.J. Styles (100%) = no singles encounters; no tag encounters --- A.J. Styles
• A Block: Yuji Nagata (63%) vs. Katsuyori Shibata (61%) = no singles encounters; 7 tag matches (Shibata leads 6:1) --- Yuji Nagata
• A Block: Shinsuke Nakamura (75%) vs. Tomohiro Ishii (41%) = no singles encounters; no tag encounters --- Shinsuke Nakamura

Night 8 - 8/3/14

• A Block: Tomohiro Ishii (41%) vs. Davey Boy Smith, Jr. (50%) = 1 singles match (Smith leads 1:0); 11 tag matches (Smith leads 7:4) --- Davey Boy Smith, Jr.
• B Block: Hiroyoshi Tenzan (25%) vs. Toru Yano (44%) = 1 singles match (Tenzan leads 1:0); 34 tag matches (Tenzan leads 25:9) --- Hiroyoshi Tenzan
• A Block: Yuji Nagata (63%) vs. Shelton Benjamin (47%) = 1 singles match (Benjamin leads 1:0); 2 tag matches (Tied at 1 matches each) --- Shelton Benjamin
• A Block: Satoshi Kojima (50%) vs. Doc Gallows (0%) = no singles encounters; 3 tag matches (Gallows leads 3:0) --- Satoshi Kojima
• B Block: Hirooki Goto (50%) vs. Tetsuya Naito (57%) = no singles encounters; 2 tag matches (Naito leads 2:0) --- Tetsuya Naito
• B Block: Lance Archer (33%) vs. A.J. Styles (100%) = no singles encounters; no tag encounters --- A.J. Styles
• B Block: Togi Makabe (56%) vs. Minoru Suzuki (62%) = no singles encounters; 1 tag match (Makabe leads 1:0) --- Minoru Suzuki

Night 9 - 8/4/14

• A Block: Kota Ibushi (50%) vs. Katsuyori Shibata (61%) = no singles encounters; no tag encounters --- Katsuyori Shibata
• B Block: Kazuchika Okada (69%) vs. Yujiro Takahashi (39%) = no singles encounters; 12 tag matches (Tied at 6 matches each) --- Kazuchika Okada
• A Block: Hiroshi Tanahashi (65%) vs. Shinsuke Nakamura (75%) = 3 singles matches (Tanahashi leads 2:1); 30 tag matches (Tanahashi leads 16:13) --- Hiroshi Tanahashi
• A Block: Kota Ibushi (50%) vs. Davey Boy Smith, Jr. (50%) = no singles encounters; no tag encounters --- Davey Boy Smith, Jr.
• B Block: Lance Archer (33%) vs. Yujiro Takahashi (39%) = no singles encounters; 1 tag match (Archer leads 1:0) --- Yujiro Takahashi
• A Block: Yuji Nagata (63%) vs. Doc Gallows (0%) = no singles encounters; 3 tag matches (Nagata leads 2:1) --- Yuji Nagata
• B Block: Togi Makabe (56%) vs. Hiroyoshi Tenzan (25%) = no singles encounters; 1 tag match (Tenzan leads 1:0) --- Togi Makabe
• B Block: Tetsuya Naito (57%) vs. Minoru Suzuki (62%) = 1 singles match (Naito leads 1:0); 1 tag match (Naito leads 1:0) --- Tetsuya Naito
• A Block: Katsuyori Shibata (61%) vs. Bad Luck Fale (75%) = no singles encounters; no tag encounters --- Bad Luck Fale
• A Block: Satoshi Kojima (50%) vs. Shinsuke Nakamura (75%) = no singles encounters; 3 tag matches (Kojima leads 2:1) --- Shinsuke Nakamura
• B Block: A.J. Styles (100%) vs. Karl Anderson (40%) = no singles encounters; no tag encounters --- A.J. Styles
• A Block: Hiroshi Tanahashi (65%) vs. Shelton Benjamin (47%) = no singles encounters; no tag encounters --- Hiroshi Tanahashi
• B Block: Hirooki Goto (50%) vs. Kazuchika Okada (69%) = 3 singles matches (Okada leads 2:1); 15 tag matches (Goto leads 10:5) --- Kazuchika Okada

Night 10 - 8/6/14

• A Block: Satoshi Kojima (50%) vs. Kota Ibushi (50%) = no singles encounters; 1 tag match (Kojima leads 1:0) --- Satoshi Kojima 
• A Block: Davey Boy Smith, Jr. (50%) vs. Bad Luck Fale (75%) = no singles encounters; 2 tag matches (Tied at 1 matches each) --- Bad Luck Fale
• B Block: Hiroyoshi Tenzan (25%) vs. Tetsuya Naito (57%) = 1 singles match (Tenzan leads 1:0); 2 tag matches (Tenzan leads 2:0) --- Hiroyoshi Tenzan
• B Block: Minoru Suzuki (62%) vs. Karl Anderson (40%) = 1 singles match (Minoru Suzuki leads 1:0); 3 tag matches (Minoru Suzuki leads 3:0) --- Minoru Suzuki
• B Block: Togi Makabe (56%) vs. Toru Yano (44%) = no singles encounters; 16 tag matches (Makabe leads 13:3) --- Togi Makabe
• B Block: A.J. Styles (100%) vs. Yujiro Takahashi (39%) = no singles encounters; no tag encounters --- A.J. Styles
• B Block: Kazuchika Okada (69%) vs. Lance Archer (33%) = 2 singles matches (Okada leads 2:0); 7 tag matches (Archer leads 4:3) --- Kazuchika Okada
• A Block: Hiroshi Tanahashi (65%) vs. Yuji Nagata (63%) = no singles encounters; 1 tag match (Nagata leads 1:0) --- Hiroshi Tanahashi
• A Block: Tomohiro Ishii (41%) vs. Katsuyori Shibata (61%) = 2 singles matches (Tied at 1 matches each); 1 tag match (Shibata leads 1:0) --- Katsuyori Shibata
• A Block: Shinsuke Nakamura (75%) vs. Doc Gallows (0%) = no singles encounters; 5 tag matches (Gallows leads 3:2) --- Shinsuke Nakamura

Night 11 - 8/6/14

• A Block: Hiroshi Tanahashi (65%) vs. Davey Boy Smith, Jr. (50%) = 1 singles match (Tanahashi leads 1:0); 1 tag match (Smith leads 1:0) --- Hiroshi Tanahashi
• A Block: Yuji Nagata (63%) vs. Tomohiro Ishii (41%) = no singles encounters; 8 tag matches (Nagata leads 7:1) --- Yuji Nagata
• A Block: Kota Ibushi (50%) vs. Shelton Benjamin (47%) = 1 singles match (Benjamin leads 1:0); no tag encounters --- Shelton Benjamin
• A Block: Katsuyori Shibata (61%) vs. Doc Gallows (0%) = no singles encounters; 2 tag matches (Tied at 1 matches each) --- Katsuyori Shibata
• A Block: Shinsuke Nakamura (75%) vs. Bad Luck Fale (75%) = 2 singles matches (Tied at 1 matches each); 16 tag matches (Tied at 8 matches each) --- Draw (they are tied in win percentage, singles and tag!)
• B Block: Togi Makabe (56%) vs. A.J. Styles (100%) = no singles encounters; no tag encounters --- A.J. Styles
• B Block: Hirooki Goto (50%) vs. Lance Archer (33%) = 1 singles match (Goto leads 1:0); 1 tag match (Archer leads 1:0) --- Hirooki Goto
• B Block: Tetsuya Naito (57%) vs. Karl Anderson (40%) = 1 singles match (Naito leads 1:0); 6 tag matches (Naito leads 5:1) --- Tetsuya Naito
• B Block: Kazuchika Okada (69%) vs. Minoru Suzuki (62%) = 2 singles matches (Tied at 1 matches each); 26 tag matches (Okada leads 15:11) --- Kazuchika Okada
• B Block: Toru Yano (44%) vs. Yujiro Takahashi (39%) = 1 singles match (Yano leads 1:0); no tag encounters --- Toru Yano

Final Projected Points

A Block	Points
Bad Luck Fale	19
Hiroshi Tanahashi	18
Shinsuke Nakamura	17
Katsuyori Shibata	12
Yuji Nagata	12
Davey Boy Smith, Jr.	10
Shelton Benjamin	8
Satoshi Kojima	6
Tomohiro Ishii	6
Doc Gallows	2
Kota Ibushi	0

B Block	Points
A.J. Styles	20
Kazuchika Okada	16
Tetsuya Naito	14
Togi Makabe	14
Minoru Suzuki	12
Hirooki Goto	10
Hiroyoshi Tenzan	6
Karl Anderson	6
Toru Yano	6
Yujiro Takahashi	4
Lance Archer	2

Night 12 - 8/6/14

• Finals: Bad Luck Fale (75%) vs. A.J. Styles (100%) = no singles encounters; no tag encounters --- AJ Styles
• 3rd Place: Hiroshi Tanahashi (65%) vs. Kazuchika Okada (69%) = 4 singles matches (Okada leads 2:1); 32 tag matches (Tanahashi leads 19:12) --- Kazuchika Okada

Of course, all of this reflects my complete cluelessness about New Japan plans and who they are pushing. But it's something.

Chris Harrington
chris.harrington@gmail.com
@mookieghana