The timeframes selected for points were:
- Under Three minutes
- Three minutes to Eight minutes
- Eight minutes to Fifteen minutes
- Fifteen minutes to Twenty minutes
- Above Twenty minutes
For instance, losing in two minutes (a real squash) would hurts your reputation (gaining negative points) while the break-even point was hanging for fifteen minutes with people lasting twenty minutes or even gaining positive points.
While intuitively these lengths make sense, I wanted to comb through some data, and see what the wrestlenomics might suggest.
Here are the Average, First Quartile, Median and Third Quartiles for two types of matches:
SINGLES MATCHES - which were strictly one wrestler versus one wrestler (no handicap, no multi-man)
TAG MATCHES - which were strictly two wrestlers versus two wrestlers (no multi-teams, no six-man specials)
AVERAGE/MEDIAN/QUARTILE MATCH LENGTH FOR PPV/RAW/SMACKDOWN 1993-2013
Data Source: CageMatch data from 1993-2013. Shows were classified based on their description and matches were classified based on number of teams/participants. Only matches that had match time listed were included. Matches that aired before the PPV (when part of Free for All, Kickoff or Pre-Show) were counted as PPV though matches that were part of Sunday Night Heat did not.
PPV
| PPV | SINGLES MATCHES | SINGLES AVERAGE | 25th | Median | 75th | TAG MATCHES | TAG AVERAGE | 25th | Median | 75th | |
| 1993 | 26 | 10:23 | 6:47 | 9:37 | 14:01 | 5 | 13:20 | 10:44 | 13:41 | 14:22 | |
| 1994 | 27 | 11:41 | 5:53 | 8:57 | 14:30 | 5 | 9:20 | 6:45 | 7:41 | 9:16 | |
| 1995 | 51 | 11:25 | 7:17 | 10:02 | 14:57 | 11 | 11:12 | 8:08 | 10:54 | 14:09 | |
| 1996 | 66 | 12:58 | 6:30 | 11:50 | 16:60 | 11 | 9:33 | 7:42 | 10:10 | 11:06 | |
| 1997 | 57 | 12:54 | 8:46 | 12:11 | 16:50 | 12 | 11:17 | 9:04 | 10:32 | 12:36 | |
| 1998 | 71 | 10:09 | 5:45 | 8:30 | 13:51 | 22 | 9:38 | 7:29 | 9:00 | 10:58 | |
| 1999 | 83 | 9:44 | 5:39 | 8:37 | 12:01 | 16 | 10:30 | 7:08 | 10:51 | 14:10 | |
| 2000 | 61 | 10:43 | 4:59 | 8:02 | 13:01 | 18 | 8:45 | 7:06 | 8:23 | 10:46 | |
| 2001 | 70 | 12:12 | 6:30 | 11:12 | 16:14 | 14 | 9:44 | 6:49 | 8:57 | 10:15 | |
| 2002 | 80 | 11:56 | 6:31 | 10:47 | 15:36 | 16 | 8:48 | 5:18 | 7:13 | 9:42 | |
| 2003 | 58 | 12:24 | 7:06 | 12:08 | 16:46 | 15 | 9:20 | 6:58 | 7:55 | 11:07 | |
| 2004 | 72 | 12:23 | 6:22 | 10:25 | 16:12 | 15 | 9:59 | 7:05 | 9:35 | 13:47 | |
| 2005 | 78 | 12:30 | 6:25 | 11:37 | 17:16 | 13 | 9:49 | 7:37 | 8:33 | 12:22 | |
| 2006 | 80 | 11:07 | 7:24 | 9:44 | 14:28 | 14 | 11:42 | 8:14 | 11:04 | 13:31 | |
| 2007 | 79 | 11:12 | 7:14 | 10:36 | 15:02 | 14 | 12:32 | 8:29 | 11:20 | 15:30 | |
| 2008 | 72 | 12:24 | 8:42 | 11:12 | 16:45 | 6 | 8:13 | 6:16 | 8:00 | 9:57 | |
| 2009 | 67 | 13:02 | 7:20 | 11:57 | 16:04 | 8 | 15:59 | 11:38 | 15:52 | 20:26 | |
| 2010 | 64 | 11:57 | 6:34 | 12:16 | 15:52 | 8 | 6:23 | 4:48 | 6:09 | 7:11 | |
| 2011 | 68 | 12:08 | 7:15 | 10:53 | 14:60 | 10 | 10:30 | 7:13 | 9:34 | 12:52 | |
| 2012 | 63 | 11:50 | 5:46 | 10:20 | 16:51 | 10 | 9:09 | 7:12 | 8:27 | 11:38 | |
| 2013 | 69 | 12:13 | 7:02 | 9:59 | 16:57 | 13 | 8:59 | 6:17 | 7:24 | 12:14 |
PPV Singles matches a little under twelve minutes and PPV tag matches average right around ten minutes. I'd consider a "short" PPV match anything less then seven minutes (singles) / eight minutes (tag). I'd consider a "long" PPV match to be anything more than fifteen minutes (singles) / twelve minutes (tag).
You'll notice the uptick in average tag match in 2009. This was completely driven by DX PPV matches which went 18-23 minutes while PPV tag matches without HHH/HBK were back at the normal 10-14 minutes. You'll also notice that our dataset for PPV two on two tag matches is pretty scarce.
RAW
RAW
|
SINGLES
MATCHES
|
SINGLES
AVERAGE
|
25th
|
Median
|
75th
|
TAG MATCHES
|
TAG
AVERAGE
|
25th
|
Median
|
75th
| |
1993
|
83
|
5:52
|
2:39
|
3:51
|
7:04
|
17
|
5:57
|
3:32
|
4:14
|
8:00
| |
1994
|
55
|
6:23
|
2:53
|
4:37
|
8:32
|
8
|
8:49
|
4:41
|
9:04
|
12:10
| |
1995
|
53
|
6:15
|
2:46
|
5:46
|
7:39
|
10
|
5:35
|
3:02
|
4:46
|
8:09
| |
1996
|
66
|
7:09
|
3:43
|
6:11
|
9:49
|
12
|
6:45
|
4:17
|
5:57
|
9:19
| |
1997
|
144
|
5:56
|
3:07
|
4:23
|
8:31
|
45
|
6:09
|
3:39
|
4:55
|
7:54
| |
1998
|
186
|
4:08
|
2:30
|
3:27
|
5:00
|
68
|
4:34
|
2:59
|
3:56
|
5:44
| |
1999
|
239
|
3:39
|
1:48
|
3:00
|
4:50
|
82
|
4:12
|
2:26
|
3:46
|
5:11
| |
2000
|
210
|
3:43
|
2:19
|
3:14
|
4:49
|
123
|
4:10
|
2:54
|
3:50
|
5:01
| |
2001
|
221
|
4:04
|
2:26
|
3:23
|
4:46
|
75
|
5:18
|
3:23
|
4:35
|
7:02
| |
2002
|
213
|
4:20
|
2:20
|
3:21
|
5:33
|
82
|
5:30
|
3:33
|
4:43
|
6:44
| |
2003
|
172
|
4:49
|
2:30
|
4:04
|
5:56
|
85
|
5:39
|
3:10
|
4:35
|
7:09
| |
2004
|
169
|
6:45
|
2:47
|
4:05
|
7:55
|
50
|
8:36
|
4:21
|
5:41
|
13:35
| |
2005
|
192
|
6:17
|
2:37
|
4:00
|
9:18
|
38
|
7:39
|
4:11
|
6:11
|
10:00
| |
2006
|
204
|
4:54
|
2:00
|
3:31
|
5:57
|
41
|
5:04
|
3:00
|
3:52
|
5:00
| |
2007
|
187
|
5:08
|
2:00
|
3:35
|
5:57
|
58
|
5:32
|
2:53
|
3:52
|
6:31
| |
2008
|
196
|
4:52
|
2:04
|
3:20
|
5:50
|
69
|
5:17
|
2:53
|
3:48
|
8:15
| |
2009
|
194
|
4:55
|
2:13
|
3:25
|
6:10
|
53
|
5:42
|
2:40
|
3:40
|
7:17
| |
2010
|
202
|
4:51
|
1:56
|
3:18
|
6:59
|
60
|
4:48
|
2:31
|
3:19
|
5:47
| |
2011
|
195
|
5:24
|
2:14
|
3:48
|
8:23
|
61
|
5:58
|
2:40
|
3:53
|
9:39
| |
2012
|
254
|
5:07
|
2:00
|
3:10
|
7:21
|
68
|
6:53
|
3:11
|
6:45
|
10:36
| |
2013
|
287
|
6:44
|
2:45
|
4:35
|
10:42
|
66
|
5:43
|
3:26
|
4:28
|
6:10
|
Your average singles match on Raw is a little over five minutes long. Your average tag match on Raw is a little under six minutes long (it's above half-a-minute longer than a singles match).
I'd consider a "short" Raw match to be under three minutes and a "long" Raw match to be over seven minutes (singles) or eight minutes (tag).
I think it's remarkable to see how in the Attitude era (1998-2001) how short the average matches were. In many ways that statistic reflects on how the era earned the name "crash TV". It will be interesting to see how 2014 average singles matches compare to 2013; will three-hour Raws result in more long matches or just more matches overall?
SMACKDOWN
SM!
|
SINGLES
MATCHES
|
SINGLES
AVERAGE
|
25th
|
Median
|
75th
|
TAG MATCHES
|
TAG
AVERAGE
|
25th
|
Median
|
75th
| |
1999
|
104
|
3:12
|
1:47
|
2:38
|
3:57
|
33
|
4:34
|
2:55
|
4:15
|
5:37
| |
2000
|
199
|
3:42
|
2:30
|
3:24
|
4:37
|
108
|
4:14
|
3:03
|
4:02
|
5:09
| |
2001
|
194
|
4:20
|
2:35
|
3:45
|
5:23
|
74
|
5:17
|
3:39
|
4:30
|
6:03
| |
2002
|
202
|
4:41
|
2:40
|
3:35
|
5:44
|
76
|
6:16
|
3:60
|
5:04
|
7:53
| |
2003
|
205
|
5:36
|
3:08
|
4:24
|
6:03
|
65
|
6:50
|
4:16
|
5:10
|
7:06
| |
2004
|
148
|
6:17
|
2:50
|
4:19
|
8:00
|
50
|
8:31
|
4:35
|
6:29
|
11:55
| |
2005
|
170
|
6:25
|
2:20
|
4:00
|
7:24
|
41
|
8:22
|
3:20
|
7:46
|
12:53
| |
2006
|
203
|
7:02
|
3:06
|
4:58
|
9:11
|
48
|
6:56
|
3:27
|
5:45
|
8:23
| |
2007
|
203
|
7:01
|
3:16
|
5:07
|
9:42
|
52
|
8:27
|
3:29
|
6:44
|
13:49
| |
2008
|
206
|
5:56
|
2:30
|
4:24
|
8:19
|
51
|
5:31
|
3:22
|
4:44
|
6:32
| |
2009
|
182
|
7:04
|
2:53
|
4:52
|
11:23
|
49
|
7:38
|
3:30
|
6:03
|
10:43
| |
2010
|
188
|
7:10
|
2:29
|
6:03
|
11:30
|
49
|
5:55
|
2:36
|
3:45
|
9:48
| |
2011
|
232
|
6:11
|
2:22
|
4:04
|
9:52
|
50
|
6:09
|
2:32
|
3:59
|
9:13
| |
2012
|
222
|
5:18
|
1:53
|
3:14
|
8:47
|
51
|
5:02
|
2:41
|
3:34
|
5:56
| |
2013
|
188
|
5:41
|
2:29
|
3:53
|
9:12
|
46
|
5:44
|
2:35
|
3:47
|
8:02
|
The average singles match on Smackdown is under 6 minutes and the average tag match on Smackdown is a little over 6 minutes. Again, a "short" match on Smackdown would be under three minutes for both tag and singles varieties. A "long" match on Smackdown would be over eight minutes (singles) or nine minutes (tag).
Again, you can see how a show born during the attitude era started off with plenty of star power but quite short matches.
Overall, you can see the curve of both singles and tag matches and how they both peak early (three minutes for singles matches, a little under four minutes for tag matches). More than half of all televised matches across Raw, Smackdown and PPV were less than five minutes long. (You can almost hear the road agent telling the guys to get out there quick and they've got three minutes to do their stuff.)
Getting back to the original question, what might be five time lengths I'd use for singles bury points (if I was applying them uniformly to Raw/Smackdown/PPV matches?)
Reviewing Original Propositions for Singles Matches matchlength for Bury Points
A. "Under Three minutes" (covers 28.5% of singles matches)
B. "Three minutes to Eight minutes" (covers 42.0% of singles matches)
C. "Eight minutes to Fifteen minutes" (covers 20.6% of singles matches)
D. "Fifteen minutes to Twenty minutes" (covers 5.83% of singles matches)
E. "Above Twenty minutes" (covers 3.0% of singles matches)
Right now 91% of singles matches land in first three buckets. That may be a little skewed for me. If I was recalibrating, here's my take:
I would probably keep bucket A (under three minutes) the same since that's near the first quartile. I might scale back Bucket B a little so it only covered about a third of matches (3 minutes to 6 minutes). Then I'd adjust Bucket C to be (6 minutes to 10 minutes) which is about 16% of the singles matches. Bucket D would be (10 minutes to 15 minutes) about 13% of singles matches and bucket E would just be "above 15 minutes" which is 8% of singles matches. If you really want to subdivide bucket E, I'd probably put the marker at 18 minutes which not only surpasses a quarter hour (their general unit for marking of live TV shows) but leaves an elite bucket for the less than 5% of singles matches that last 18+ minutes. It's possible that what works for TV Bury Points may need to be adjusted for PPV Bury Points because average matches are so much longer on PPV.
That's just my thoughts. I think Matthew did a great job with designing the Kayfabermetrics and until he has several year's completed, it will be difficult to judge how well it works or what false positives may arise. Hopefully throwing down all of this data helps paint a broader picture for everyone to start considering what it really means to wrestle a match for so long that even when you lose, you looked competitive throughout.
-Chris Harrington (@mookieghana)
If you haven't already, please do check out Matthew's website: Kayfabermetrics
ADDENDUM:
I realized that I had combined both men's, women's and mixed tag matches in my metrics. Here's the data broken out by gender. (There's very few man vs woman singles match - most are either Chyna or strange gimmicks like Kane vs Maria.)
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