Analysis by Chris Harrington (@mookieghana on twitter)
Introduction
When you're pulling together Wrestling Statistics, your worst enemy is the sourceless "fact".
It appears on the internet (or that archived Usenet post) and makes a bold claim without rhyme or reason. Who was under that mask? How many buys did that PPV do? How much did that territory sell for? What's the best strategy for mapping the icosahedron when I'm hunting a Wumpus? It can be maddening.
So, when possible, I do try to cite my sources.
In this case, I decided to go with number of Worldwide and North American Pay-Per-View Buy numbers as published by Dave Meltzer in his Wrestling Observer Newsletter. All of these issues are online, so if you have a subscription, I do encourage you to check my transcription skills.
There's other places you can find PPV buy numbers. I highly recommend Jason Campbell's Regularly Updated Spreadsheet at Pro Wrestling History (it's usually populated with information noted in Dave's newsletter). If you're more interested in a direct source, the WWE offers a nice chart each month as part of their Key Performance Indicators (KPI) on their Corporate Website. And since WWE became a publicly traded company on the NYSE on October 19, 1999, WWE has publishes their Quarterly Reports (8-K) and Annual Reports (10-K) with the SEC.
In the beginning, WWF was quite opaque about the specific number of buys for most PPV events. (Wrestlemania was the one exception since it was an industry gem and chance to brag.) A quarterly report might cryptically note, "We exceeded the number of buys for each event that occurred in the same period as last year except one." However, over time, responding to complaints from Investors and Analysts, WWE began clearly reporting worldwide numbers for each PPV held in that quarter.
WWE always has two majors caveats whenever they're discussing PPVs:
1) "This initial estimate is based on preliminary buy information received from our pay-per-view distributors."
2) "Final reconciliation of the pay-per-view buys generally occurs within one year and any subsequent adjustments to the buys are recognized in the period new information is received."
Essentially, the number of buys reported for a PPV isn't necessary that final number of buys for a PPV. It can be a maddening process, and one that causes a lot of confusion. Additionally, not all of the information is reported in a single place at the same time. Domestic/Worldwide PPV splits used to appear in the quarterly and annual reports. Now, they're usually only available through the unaudited monthly KPIs releases (which, in turn, are not handily archived and accessible in the same fashion as all of the SEC filings). Another good pair of resources are the Trending Schedules available on the Corporate Website and the 10-Q SEC Filings.
Each quarter WWE reports their latest estimate for PPV buys for that quarter along with the "Prior Period Buys" which essentially are the adjusting the PPVs that occurred outside of the current period. Usually, the assumption is that most of these "Prior Period Buys" are connected to the previous period's PPVs (try saying that three times fast!) though in some cases - Wrestlemania, for instance - we can see adjustments to the final number many months later. Those adjustments can be both positive or negative.
Sometimes those adjustments are applied to the chart that is part of the monthly KPIs. Sometimes WWE will specifically quote figures around PPVs - particularly Wrestlemania buys, in a press release. Or sometimes as part of news articles (in periodicals such as Advertising Age, SportsBusinss Journal, Forbes, Fortune, Hollywood Variety) they'll quote specific buy numbers. When Linda McMahon was running for Congress, the WWE was especially open with offering PPV buy numbers when journalists inquired. However, in the end, it can be quite piecemeal.
Your initial PPV buy estimates are typically pretty good, but they are cases where certain PPVs have enormous swings. As WWE notes, their "initial estimate" is based on "preliminary buy information".
When the business of purchasing a PPV was a lot more complicated and reconciliation between Cable Franchises and PPV Distributors was more cumbersome, it was understandable why there was such a large delay for WWF to available how successful their PPV was. Many of the best indications appeared in the industry press (Broadcasting & Cable or Multichannel News) where large regional cable franchisees would report the buyrate for their system for a major wrestling PPV. When WWF wasn't a public company, these Cable Franchise reports quoted in industry periodicals would often serve as the best source of information - particularly in the early 1990s.
This brings up the important distinction between buys and buyrates. For decades, Cable (and Satellite) were growing businesses that expanded the overall number of PPV-capable homes year after year. Franchises would report the percentage of their capable homes which purchased an event (the buyrate). The number of buys was "eligible subscribers x buyrate". Since the "universe" was growing year after year, the focus was on the buyrate - not just the pure number of buys. However, as the "universe" hit a plateau and even began decreasing (Netflix/cord cutter generation + great recession cutbacks + escalating cable prices), along with the mid-2000s age of digital cable systems (which greatly reduced cable "black box" piracy), the accounting has moved over purely to buys.
(If you're curious about specific number of PPV-capable homes by year, I suggest you look at "Stay Tuned: A History of American Broadcasting". After an exhaustive search, I came across a useful table on page 871 Appendix C which has exactly that.)
In this modern age, it does not make as much sense to talk about buyrates - only buys. The Cable/Satellite PPV eligible Universe is pretty stable. And there are alternative methods of distribution (which are growing) such as through Next-Gen Video Game Consoles (PS3 and XBOX-360 machines), Web Streaming (through WWE.com and through WWE's App).
So, what's the best way to track all of this information which is being published in pieces at various times throughout the entire year and covering often disparate time-frames and events? A weekly newsletter isn't a bad start. So, that's why I'm using Dave Meltzer's number - particularly for 2006-2013 period. I've also double-checked these against SEC Filings and KPI releases and generally, they're the same numbers. If anything the differences come down to how you apply a domestic/worldwide PPV split and how you attribute prior period buys.
| EVENT | DATE | PRICE | Worldwide Buys | NA Buys | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Year's Revolution 2006
|
1/8/2006
|
34.95
|
345
|
214
|
4/6/09 WO
|
Royal Rumble 2006
|
1/29/2006
|
34.95
|
585
|
357
|
4/6/09 WO
|
No Way Out 2006
|
2/19/2006
|
34.95
|
218
|
133
|
4/6/09 WO
|
WrestleMania 22
|
4/2/2006
|
49.95
|
975
|
636
|
4/6/09 WO
|
Backlash 2006
|
4/30/2006
|
34.95
|
230
|
143
|
4/6/09 WO
|
Judgment Day 2006
|
5/21/2006
|
34.95
|
252
|
154
|
4/6/09 WO
|
One Night Stand 2006
|
6/11/2006
|
39.95
|
304
|
185
|
4/6/09 WO
|
Vengeance 2006
|
6/25/2006
|
39.95
|
429
|
270
|
4/6/09 WO
|
Great American Bash 2006
|
7/23/2006
|
39.95
|
232
|
141
|
4/6/09 WO
|
SummerSlam 2006
|
8/20/2006
|
39.95
|
541
|
330
|
4/6/09 WO
|
Unforgiven 2006
|
9/17/2006
|
39.95
|
307
|
187
|
4/6/09 WO
|
No Mercy 2006
|
10/8/2006
|
39.95
|
197
|
114
|
4/6/09 WO
|
Cyber Sunday 2006
|
11/5/2006
|
39.95
|
228
|
139
|
4/6/09 WO
|
Survivor Series 2006
|
11/26/2006
|
39.95
|
383
|
234
|
4/6/09 WO
|
December to Dismember
|
12/3/2006
|
39.95
|
90
|
52
|
4/6/09 WO
|
Armageddon 2006
|
12/17/2006
|
39.95
|
239
|
139
|
4/6/09 WO
|
New Year's Revolution 2007
|
1/7/2007
|
39.95
|
225
|
149
|
4/6/09 WO
|
Royal Rumble 2007
|
1/28/2007
|
39.95
|
525
|
347
|
4/6/09 WO
|
No Way Out 2007
|
2/18/2007
|
39.95
|
205
|
135
|
4/6/09 WO
|
WrestleMania 23
|
4/1/2007
|
54.95
|
1250
|
825
|
4/6/09 WO
|
Backlash 2007
|
4/29/2007
|
39.95
|
210
|
139
|
4/6/09 WO
|
Judgment Day 2007
|
5/20/2007
|
39.95
|
240
|
158
|
4/6/09 WO
|
One Night Stand 2007
|
6/3/2007
|
39.95
|
188
|
124
|
4/6/09 WO
|
Vengeance 2007
|
6/24/2007
|
39.95
|
255
|
168
|
4/6/09 WO
|
Great American Bash 2007
|
7/22/2007
|
39.95
|
250
|
165
|
4/6/09 WO
|
SummerSlam 2007
|
8/26/2007
|
39.95
|
545
|
360
|
4/6/09 WO
|
Unforgiven 2007
|
9/16/2007
|
39.95
|
220
|
134
|
4/6/09 WO
|
No Mercy 2007
|
10/7/2007
|
39.95
|
271
|
171
|
4/6/09 WO
|
Cyber Sunday 2007
|
10/28/2007
|
39.95
|
194
|
122
|
4/6/09 WO
|
Survivor Series 2007
|
11/18/2007
|
39.95
|
341
|
215
|
4/6/09 WO
|
Armageddon 2007
|
12/16/2007
|
39.95
|
237
|
149
|
4/6/09 WO
|
Royal Rumble 2008
|
1/27/2008
|
39.95
|
575
|
403
|
2/23/11 WO
|
No Way Out 2008
|
2/17/2008
|
39.95
|
365
|
256
|
2/23/11 WO
|
WrestleMania XXIV
|
3/30/2008
|
49.95
|
1041
|
697
|
2/23/11 WO
|
Backlash 2008
|
4/27/2008
|
39.95
|
210
|
141
|
2/23/11 WO
|
Judgment Day 2008
|
5/18/2008
|
39.95
|
252
|
169
|
2/23/11 WO
|
One Night Stand 2008
|
6/1/2008
|
39.95
|
200
|
134
|
2/23/11 WO
|
Night of Champions 2008
|
6/29/2008
|
39.95
|
286
|
191
|
2/23/11 WO
|
Great American Bash 2008
|
7/20/2008
|
39.95
|
196
|
135
|
2/23/11 WO
|
SummerSlam 2008
|
8/17/2008
|
39.95
|
477
|
329
|
2/23/11 WO
|
Unforgiven 2008
|
9/7/2008
|
39.95
|
211
|
146
|
2/23/11 WO
|
No Mercy 2008
|
10/5/2008
|
39.95
|
261
|
157
|
2/23/11 WO
|
Cyber Sunday 2008
|
10/26/2008
|
39.95
|
153
|
92
|
2/23/11 WO
|
Survivor Series 2008
|
11/23/2008
|
39.95
|
319
|
191
|
2/23/11 WO
|
Armageddon 2008
|
12/14/2008
|
39.95
|
193
|
116
|
2/23/11 WO
|
Royal Rumble 2009
|
1/25/2009
|
39.95
|
450
|
288
|
3/5/12 WO
|
No Way Out 2009
|
2/15/2009
|
39.95
|
272
|
174
|
3/5/12 WO
|
WrestleMania XXV
|
4/5/2009
|
54.95
|
975
|
605
|
3/5/12 WO
|
Backlash 2009
|
4/26/2009
|
39.95
|
182
|
116
|
3/5/12 WO
|
Judgment Day 2009
|
5/17/2009
|
39.95
|
238
|
146
|
3/5/12 WO
|
Extreme Rules 2009
|
6/7/2009
|
39.95
|
213
|
136
|
3/5/12 WO
|
The Bash 2009
|
6/28/2009
|
39.95
|
178
|
114
|
2/23/11 WO
|
Night of Champions 2009
|
7/26/2009
|
39.95
|
267
|
166
|
3/5/12 WO
|
SummerSlam 2009
|
8/23/2009
|
39.95
|
369
|
229
|
3/5/12 WO
|
Breaking Point 2009
|
9/13/2009
|
39.95
|
169
|
105
|
3/5/12 WO
|
Hell in a Cell 2009
|
10/4/2009
|
39.95
|
283
|
164
|
3/5/12 WO
|
Bragging Rights 2009
|
10/25/2009
|
39.95
|
181
|
105
|
3/5/12 WO
|
Survivor Series 2009
|
11/22/2009
|
39.95
|
235
|
136
|
3/5/12 WO
|
TLC 2009
|
12/13/2009
|
39.95
|
228
|
132
|
3/5/12 WO
|
Royal Rumble 2010
|
1/31/2010
|
44.95
|
465
|
259
|
3/19/13 WO
|
Elimination Chamber 2010
|
2/21/2010
|
44.95
|
287
|
160
|
3/19/13 WO
|
WrestleMania XXVI
|
3/28/2010
|
54.95
|
885
|
495
|
3/19/13 WO
|
Extreme Rules 2010
|
4/25/2010
|
44.95
|
201
|
112
|
3/19/13 WO
|
Over the Limit 2010
|
5/23/2010
|
44.95
|
218
|
121
|
3/19/13 WO
|
Fatal Four Way 2010
|
6/20/2010
|
44.95
|
158
|
88
|
3/19/13 WO
|
Money in the Bank 2010
|
7/18/2010
|
44.95
|
164
|
98
|
3/19/13 WO
|
SummerSlam 2010
|
8/15/2010
|
44.95
|
349
|
209
|
3/19/13 WO
|
Night of Champions 2010
|
9/19/2010
|
44.95
|
165
|
99
|
3/19/13 WO
|
Hell in a Cell 2010
|
10/3/2010
|
44.95
|
210
|
109
|
3/19/13 WO
|
Bragging Rights 2010
|
10/24/2010
|
44.95
|
137
|
71
|
3/19/13 WO
|
Survivor Series 2010
|
11/21/2010
|
44.95
|
244
|
127
|
3/19/13 WO
|
TLC 2010
|
12/19/2010
|
44.95
|
195
|
101
|
3/19/13 WO
|
Royal Rumble 2011
|
1/30/2011
|
44.95
|
476
|
281
|
3/3/14 WO
|
Elimination Chamber 2011
|
2/20/2011
|
44.95
|
212
|
145
|
3/3/14 WO
|
WrestleMania XXVII
|
4/3/2011
|
54.95
|
1124
|
679
|
3/3/14 WO
|
Extreme Rules 2011
|
5/1/2011
|
44.95
|
216
|
108
|
3/3/14 WO
|
Over the Limit 2011
|
5/22/2011
|
44.95
|
145
|
72
|
3/3/14 WO
|
Capitol Punishment 2011
|
6/19/2011
|
44.95
|
176
|
85
|
3/3/14 WO
|
Money in the Bank 2011
|
7/17/2011
|
44.95
|
205
|
146
|
3/3/14 WO
|
SummerSlam 2011
|
8/14/2011
|
44.95
|
311
|
180
|
3/3/14 WO
|
Night of Champions 2011
|
9/18/2011
|
44.95
|
169
|
109
|
3/3/14 WO
|
Hell in a Cell 2011
|
10/2/2011
|
44.95
|
182
|
98
|
3/3/14 WO
|
Vengeance 2011
|
10/23/2011
|
44.95
|
121
|
65
|
3/3/14 WO
|
Survivor Series 2011
|
11/20/2011
|
44.95
|
312
|
179
|
3/3/14 WO
|
TLC 2011
|
12/18/2011
|
44.95
|
179
|
98
|
3/3/14 WO
|
Royal Rumble 2012
|
1/29/2012
|
44.95
|
483
|
299
|
8/11/14 WO
|
Elimination Chamber 2012
|
2/19/2012
|
44.95
|
194
|
138
|
8/11/14 WO
|
WrestleMania XXXVIII
|
4/1/2012
|
54.95
|
1219
|
715
|
8/11/14 WO
|
Extreme Rules 2012
|
4/29/2012
|
44.95
|
271
|
159
|
8/11/14 WO
|
Over the Limit 2012
|
5/20/2012
|
44.95
|
172
|
124
|
8/11/14 WO
|
No Way Out 2012
|
6/17/2012
|
44.95
|
200
|
110
|
8/11/14 WO
|
Money in the Bank 2012
|
7/15/2012
|
44.95
|
206
|
114
|
8/11/14 WO
|
SummerSlam 2012
|
8/19/2012
|
44.95
|
392
|
296
|
3/3/14 WO
|
Night of Champions 2012
|
9/16/2012
|
44.95
|
207
|
112
|
3/3/14 WO
|
Hell in a Cell 2012
|
10/28/2012
|
44.95
|
207
|
157
|
3/3/14 WO
|
Survivor Series 2012
|
11/18/2012
|
44.95
|
216
|
125
|
3/3/14 WO
|
TLC 2012
|
12/16/2012
|
44.95
|
181
|
75
|
3/3/14 WO
|
Royal Rumble 2013
|
1/27/2013
|
44.95
|
579
|
364
|
5/11/15 WO
|
Elimination Chamber 2013
|
2/17/2013
|
44.95
|
241
|
181
|
5/11/15 WO
|
WrestleMania 29
|
4/7/2013
|
59.95
|
1104
|
662
|
5/11/15 WO
|
Extreme Rules 2013
|
5/19/2013
|
44.95
|
245
|
137
|
2/23/15 WO
|
Payback 2013
|
6/16/2013
|
44.95
|
209
|
108
|
2/23/15 WO
|
Money in the Bank 2013
|
7/14/2013
|
44.95
|
223
|
169
|
2/23/15 WO
|
SummerSlam 2013
|
8/18/2013
|
44.95
|
332
|
207
|
2/23/15 WO
|
Night of Champions 2013
|
9/15/2013
|
44.95
|
196
|
103
|
2/23/15 WO
|
Battleground 2013
|
10/6/2013
|
44.95
|
119
|
84
|
2/23/15 WO
|
Hell in a Cell 2013
|
10/27/2013
|
44.95
|
232
|
135
|
2/23/15 WO
|
Survivor Series 2013
|
11/24/2013
|
44.95
|
184
|
98
|
2/23/15 WO
|
TLC 2013
|
12/15/2013
|
44.95
|
189
|
146
|
2/23/15 WO
|
Royal Rumble 2014
|
1/26/2014
|
44.95
|
517
|
337
|
5/11/15 WO
|
Elimination Chamber 2014
|
2/23/2014
|
44.95
|
203
|
159
|
5/11/15 WO
|
Wrestlemania 30
|
4/6/2014
|
59.95
|
684
|
420
|
5/11/15 WO
|
Extreme Rules 2014
|
5/4/2014
|
44.95
|
107
|
45
|
2/23/15 WO
|
Payback 2014
|
6/1/2014
|
44.95
|
66
|
29
|
2/23/15 WO
|
Money in the Bank 2014
|
6/29/2014
|
44.95
|
121
|
53
|
2/23/15 WO
|
Battleground 2014
|
7/20/2014
|
44.95
|
116
|
36
|
2/23/15 WO
|
SummerSlam 2014
|
8/17/2014
|
44.95
|
169
|
74
|
2/23/15 WO
|
Night of Champions 2014
|
9/21/2014
|
44.95
|
56
|
35
|
2/23/15 WO
|
Hell in a Cell 2014
|
10/26/2014
|
44.95
|
83
|
23
|
2/23/15 WO
|
Survivor Series 2014
|
11/23/2014
|
44.95
|
100
|
32
|
2/23/15 WO
|
TLC 2014
|
12/14/2014
|
44.95
|
39
|
17
|
2/23/15 WO
|
Royal Rumble 2015
|
1/25/2015
|
44.95
|
145
|
50
|
2/23/15 WO
|
Fastlane 2015
|
2/22/2015
|
44.95
|
46
|
26
|
2/23/15 WO
|
WrestleMania 31
|
3/29/2015
|
59.95
|
259
|
103
|
2/23/15 WO
|
Extreme Rules 2015
|
4/26/2015
|
44.95
| 56 |
31
| 8/10/15 WO |
Payback 2015
|
5/17/2015
|
44.95
| 54 | 19 | 8/10/15 WO |
Elimination Chamber 2015
|
5/31/2015
|
44.95
| 41 |
41
| 8/10/15 WO |
Money in the Bank 2015
|
6/14/2015
|
44.95
| 57 |
20
| 8/10/15 WO |
Battleground 2015
|
7/19/2015
|
44.95
| 80 | 10/29/15 8-K | |
SummerSlam 2015
|
8/23/2015
|
44.95
| 121 | 10/29/15 8-K | |
Night of Champions 2015
|
9/20/2015
|
44.95
| 77 | 10/29/15 8-K |
Lastly, I'd note that the PPVs that are reported closest to the period end (or the month-end for KPIs) are the ones that tend to change the most over time. Additionally, not every PPV is offered as a "PPV" on international systems. These events usually stick out because the ratio between domestic/worldwide sharply spikes (as you'll see with Battleground 2013 which was shown as a "free" event on SkyTV in the UK.) Also, in the past there's been disputes with Satellite providers which artificially impacted the number of homes that could order the PPV.
-Chris Harrington
email: chris.harrington@gmail.com
twitter: @mookieghana
Are the NA numbers included in the worldwide numbers, or are they separate?
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ReplyDeleteWM 2013 had 1,104 worldwide buys of which 662 came from North America (and remaininhg 442,000 came from other territories).
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ReplyDeleteJunichi is my favorite Artist as he is the owner of Black butler
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