An assortment of old articles on NWA/WCW/WWF from 1988-1993

WCW REVENUES IN BETWEEN 1989-1991

I was asked by someone (@wrestlespective):

Are there reliable yearly revenue numbers available for WCW somewhere?

At first I (@mookieghana) replied:

It's possible Dave Meltzer (@davemeltzerWON) published annual numbers in the WON but I'm not certain about that. When Turner filed SEC reports, there was only a scant mention of WCW here or there but never consistent. More importantly, some WCW revenue streams were intracompany (such as Turner Video) so accounting was not straightforward. In the run-up to WCW shutting down, there was lots of journalism that would quote WCW revenue (based on leaks from Bischoff negotiations) but some only some of these reports were accurate. Some of it was based on distortions. But that's not to say that never was any revenue numbers published.

I also mentioned that even in the court documents that were produced for the Sonny Onoo lawsuit, some wrestlers (notable Warrior) were listed on the payroll but at $0 (since he was paid out of the Turner Video account).

David Bixenspan (@davidbix) also chimed in:

Plus WCW started making an on paper profit as soon as Bischoff got TBS/TNT to pay rights fees. If you give them comparable rights fees the previous years, WCW doesn't "lose money" til crashing but there was so much creative accounting going on that it's VERY difficult to get exact. Yes, the Turner Home Entertainment (THE) was getting a % of PPV buys and Turner Program Sales was being paid millions to syndicate their own show, but as you mentioned, expensive wrestlers were sometimes shunted elsewhere. For the record,1995 was the first "profitable" year.

So, with that all said, here were some of the articles that I referring to which quote revenue figures for WCW/NWA/WWF:

• 3/20/88 Newsday: "It's Really Got a Hold on Audiences"
• 11/26/89 NYTimes: "This is Not Real" 
• 3/25/91 Sports Illustrated: "Wrestling with Success"
• 7/8/91 Multichannel News: "WWF, Turner wrestle with PPV Problems"
• 10/14/91 People: "Musclebound for Glory"
• 3/1/93 Adweek: "Steel Cage legal Wrangle"

Importantly, there was an October 1988 Forbes article which said that Vince McMahon was likely a "centimillionaire".  Occasionally the $500M estimate for 1980's WWF peak is used.  More often, the $150M estimate for WWF seems to come up.  Additionally, WCW was estimated at about $33M (1989) with projection to reach $50M for 1990.

MORE RECENT TV NEWS

Other, more recent but still good things to read include:

5/5/14 Variety: Upfronts 2014: Why Cable Is Grafting New Faces On To Old Bodies
4/20/14 Adweek: How NBCU's Bonnie Hammer Plans to Dominate Cable

3/6/14 NYTimes: NBCUniversal to Combine 'Upfronts' Presentations for Its Cable Channels

WWE Q1 RESULTS

WWE announced their Q1 earnings on 5/1/14.  I covered the event with two articles at WhatCulture.

• 4/29/14 WhatCulture What investors want to learn at Thursday's Q1 update
• 5/1/14 WhatCulture What Investors learned on WWE's Q1 Conference Call
• Seeking Alpha: Transcript from WWE's Q1 Conference Call
• WWE Key Performance Indicators (through 3/31/14)
• WWE Trending Schedule (Q1 2011-Q1 2014)
• WWE Q1 2014 Earnings Presentation
• WWE Q1 2014 Results (8-K)
• WWE Q1 2014 Results (10-Q)

SHAREHOLDERS FOUNDATION WWE INVESTIGATION

Some of you may have heard about the vague "Investigation over Possible Securities Laws Violations" alert from Shareholders Foundation, Inc.  We still don't know much about this except they're not a law firm but "professional portfolio monitoring service". You can see their stock reply to questions about what they were doing.

TV RIGHTS

Wrestlemania Buys 1985-2013

People are always wondering about Wrestlemania Buys.  Here's my best attempt to provide an estimate from WM1 to WM30.  I've noticed the "source of truth" that I used - usually a combination of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter (primary) and Pro Wrestling History's PPV Spreadsheet (secondary).  Some of these numbers were also cross-referenced with posts by Dave Meltzer and John Lister.  I used the "main event" descriptions from Jason Campbell's Pro Wrestling History spreadsheet.  The numbers in yellow are estimated, but I believe these are generally the accepted Wrestlemania figures.  We don't have a full picture of WM30 yet - we know WWE Network Subscribers and estimated US Households.  Historically, the "North America" number was both Canada & United States & Puerto Rico while the International number was all other terriotires.  The big bump at WM21 was driven by adding the PPV in the UK Market.

-Chris Harrington (@mookieghana)

Buyrate = percentage of homes capable of ordering PPV that ordered PPV (where 1.0 = 1% of homes)
CCTV = closed-circuit TV; the major way people saw early WM PPVs
Source = PWH (Pro Wrestling History), WO (Wrestling Observer)

SHOW	MAIN EVENT (from PWH )	DATE	BUYRATE	CCTV	TOTAL	North America	Int'l	SOURCE
WM1	Hogan/Mr. T vs. Piper/Orndorff	3/31/1985	1.10	398	SMALL	SMALL	N/A	PWH
WM2	Hogan vs. Bundy; Battle Royal; Piper vs. Mr. T (boxing)	4/7/1986	7.00	319	250	250	N/A	PWH
WM3	Hogan vs. Andre	3/29/1987	8.00	450	400	400	N/A	PWH
WM4	WWF Title Tournament	3/27/1988	6.50	175	650	650	N/A	PWH
WM5	Hogan vs. Savage	4/2/1989	5.90	N/A	767	767	N/A	PWH
WM6	Hogan vs. Warrior	4/1/1990	4.50	N/A	550	550	N/A	PWH
WM7	Hogan vs. Slaughter	3/24/1991	2.80	N/A	400	400	N/A	PWH
WM8	Hogan vs. Sid	4/5/1992	2.30	N/A	390	390	N/A	PWH
WM9	Bret vs. Yokozuna	4/4/1993	2.00	N/A	430	430	N/A	PWH
WM10	Bret vs. Yoko; Razor vs. Michaels;  Bret vs. Owen	3/20/1994	1.68	N/A	420	420	N/A	PWH
WM11	Bigelow vs. LT; Michaels vs. Diesel	4/2/1995	1.30	N/A	340	340	N/A	PWH
WM12	Michaels vs. Bret	3/31/1996	1.20	N/A	290	290	N/A	PWH
WM13	Undertaker vs. Sid; Bret vs. Austin	3/23/1997	0.77	N/A	237	237	N/A	PWH
WM14	Austin vs. Michaels	3/29/1998	2.30	N/A	730	730	N/A	PWH
WM15	Austin vs. Rock	3/28/1999	2.32	N/A	800	800	N/A	PWH
WM16	HHH vs. Rock vs.  Mankind vs. Show (4-way)	4/2/2000	2.08	N/A	824	808	16	PWH
WM17	Austin vs. Rock	4/1/2001	2.40	N/A	1,040	970	70	2/14/05 WO
WM18	Rock vs. Hogan	3/17/2002	1.68	N/A	860	705	155	2/14/05 WO
WM19	Vince vs. Hogan; Rock vs. Austin; Angle vs. Lesnar	3/30/2003	1.08	N/A	560	431	129	2/14/05 WO
WM20	Lesnar vs. Goldberg; Undertaker vs. Kane; Angle vs. Guerrero; HBK vs. Benoit vs. HHH	3/14/2004	1.59	N/A	1,020	734	286	4/15/13 WO
WM21	HHH vs. Batista;  Undertaker vs. Orton JBL vs. Cena; HBK vs. Angle;	4/3/2005	1.68	N/A	1,085	650	435	4/15/13 WO
WM22	Cena vs. Triple H; Vince vs. HBK  Orton vs. Mysterio vs. Angle;	4/2/2006	N/A	N/A	975	636	339	4/6/09 WO
WM23	HBK vs. Cena; Batista vs. Undertaker; Trump's hair vs. Vince's hair	4/1/2007	N/A	N/A	1,250	825	425	4/6/09 WO
WM24	Flair vs. HBK; Show vs. Mayweather; UT vs. Edge; Cena vs. HHH vs. Orton	3/30/2008	N/A	N/A	1,041	697	344	2/23/11 WO
WM25	HHH vs. Orton; Cena vs. Show vs. Edge; Undertaker vs. HBK	4/5/2009	N/A	N/A	975	605	370	3/5/12 WO
WM26	HBK vs. UT; Bret vs. Vince;  Cena vs. Batista; Jericho v. Edge	3/28/2010	N/A	N/A	885	495	390	3/19/13 WO
WM27	Cena vs. Miz; Undertaker vs. HHH; Rock host	4/3/2011	N/A	N/A	1,124	679	445	3/3/14 WO
WM28	Rock vs. Cena; HHH vs. Undertaker (cell)	4/1/2012	N/A	N/A	1,219	715	504	3/3/14 WO
WM29	Rock vs. Cena; HHH vs. Lesnar; Undertaker vs. Punk	4/7/2013	N/A	N/A	1,104	662	442	3/3/14 WO

WM30

Bryan vs. HHH; Bryan vs. Orton vs. Batista; Undertaker vs. Lesnar

4/6/2014

667,287 WWE Network + nearly 400,000 US Homes + ???

WWE Press Releases

See also:

• Pro Wrestling Only: "A Demand for a Comprehensive PPV Buyrate List"
• Wrestling Observer Newsletter
• Pro Wrestling History PPV Spreadsheet
• IndeedWrestling: WWE 2006-2013 PPV Numbers 

Chris Harrington (chris.harrington@gmail.com)

WWF Wrestler Mortality - 5+ PPVs

A lot of people have been talking about Benjamin Morris' 538 piece, "Are Pro Wrestlers Dying at an Unusual Rate?"

His analysis looked at wrestlers who were on 20+ PPVs through 2002.  I went with a lower threshold 5+ PPVs expanded through 2013.  Here's what I found:

35-40 year olds: 35 alive, 1 dead = 2.8% dead (vs. 1.9% expected)
(John Cena, Rey Mysterio, CM Punk, Matt Hardy, Jeff Hardy, Sheamus, Trish Stratus, Alberto Del Rio, MVP, Shelton Benjamin, Brock Lesnar, Melina, Carlito, Santino Marella, Layla, Bobby Lashley, Hurricane Helms, Lita, Mr Kennedy, Torrie Wilson, Jamie Noble, Rhyno, Molly Holly, Billy Kidman, Rob Conway, Sylvain Grenier, Candice Michelle, Nick Dinsmore, Titus O'Neil, Gail Kim, Tamina Snuka, Ezekiel Jackson, Elijah Burke, Danny Basham, Maven;Test)

40-45 year olds: 44 alive, 4 dead = 8.3% dead (vs. 3% expected)
(Triple H, Edge, The Big Show, Chris Jericho, Christian, The Rock, Mark Henry, Bubba Ray Dudley, D-Von Dudley, Sean Waltman, Rob Van Dam, The Road Dogg, Ron Killings, Chavo Guerrero Jr, Val Venis, The Great Khali, Shane McMahon, Matt Bloom, D-Lo Brown, Tajiri, Victoria, Scott Taylor, Chyna, Charlie Haas, Spike Dudley, Ahmed Johnson, Brian Christopher, Mosh, Thrasher, Tommy Dreamer, Nunzio, Taka Michinoku, Super Crazy, Vladimir Kozlov, Chuck Palumbo, Jazz, Dawn Marie, Rosey, Jon Heidenreich, Stevie Richards, Gene Snitsky, Jonathan Coachman, Doug Basham, Luther Reigns; Umaga, Chris Candido, Crash Holly, Umaga, Viscera)

45-50 year olds: 29 alive, 4 dead = 12.1% dead (vs. 5.1% expected)
(The Undertaker, Glen Jacobs, Shawn Michaels, Kurt Angle, Batista, Bradshaw, Steve Austin, Mick Foley, Booker T, Dustin Rhodes, William Regal, Rikishi, Jeff Jarrett, Savio Vega, Dennis Knight, Lance Storm, Tazz, Sho Funaki, Perry Saturn, Bull Buchanan, Sable, Scorpio, Goldberg, Sabu, Raven, Brian Lee, David Heath, Brian Knobbs, Jerry Sags; Chris Benoit, Owen Hart, Eddie Guerrero, Yokozuna)

50-55 year olds: 33 alive, 8 dead = 19.5% dead (vs. 7.5% expected)
(Billy Gunn, Hardcore Holly, Ken Shamrock, Kevin Nash, Animal, Al Snow, Jacques Rougeau, Marty Jannetty, Charles Wright, Bart Gunn, Mark Canterbury, Marc Mero, Sid Vicious, Barry Darsow, Steve Blackman, Tatanka, Scott Steiner, The Warlord, Ivory, Ron Harris, Don Harris, Virgil, Jacqueline, Tom Prichard, Paul Roma, Samu, One Man Gang, Dean Malenko, Mike Enos, Bryan Clark, Rick Steiner, Boris Zhukov, Pat Tanaka; Davey Boy Smith, The Big Bossman, Brian Adams, Bam Bam Bigelow, The Ultimate Warrior, John Tenta, Luna, Kerry von Erich)

55-60 year olds: 19 alive, 5 dead = 20.8% dead (vs. 10.4% expected)
(Bret Hart, Ron Simmons, Scott Hall, Fit Finlay, Jake Roberts, Vader, Jim Neidhart, Mike Rotundo, Rick Martel, Brutus Beefcake, Haku, Lex Luger, Raymond Rougeau, The Barbarian, The Dynamite Kid, Koko B Ware, Fred Ottman, King Kong Bundy, Wayne Bloom; Hawk, Hercules Hernandez, Curt Hennig, Rick Rude, Adrian Adonis)

So, according to the mortality charts, we'd expect about 9-10 dead wrestlers. There's 22 dead out of this group of 182. In the 40-60 age range, twenty-one died when we'd expect less than nine.

-Chris Harrington (@mookieghana)

WWE 2014 PPV + OTT Revenue/Profitability

When it comes to estimating the cost-benefit of launching the WWE Network, I've put together a helpful little chart.

WWE REVENUE CHART

This looks at the two most important factors:

1. How much will the WWE Network grow (monthly) between now and the end of the year?
2. What portion of domestic PPV buys will remain for the PPVs between now and the end of the year?

WWE Network Growth

Some important notes about this table:

• OBIDA is PRIOR to Cannibalization.
• Growth is looking at "monthly growth over prior month" starting in May.
• Assumes costs begin to grow after 1M subscribers.

More about those Costs

In the original WWE Financial presentation, WWE costs for the Network were $55M for up to 1 million subscribers, $115M for 2 million subscribers and $140M for 3 million subscribers.  We assumed the fixed cost for is about $55M and variable cost that grows once the service surpasses one million subscribers.  That's why they actually have a higher WWE Network OBIDA (remember this is prior to revenue cannibalization) at 1M subscribers than at 1.45M subscribers.

Example of 2% for monthly WWE Network Revenue

WWE PPV Results

Some important notes about this table:

• I established a "baseline" for all PPVs going forward based on the three-year average. (see)
• I assumed PPV Cost of $39M.  It could be more (it was $48M in 2013 and a little less than $39M in 2011/2012).
• I assumed Worldwide PPV buys would remain at about 95% of the baseline.

Because we have estimated buys for Royal Rumble, Elimination Chamber and Wrestlemania that already represents about $26.6M in revenue that has already been achieved.

Combined WWE PPV and WWE Network OBIDA

Combing PPV and WWE Network OBIDA results in this table.  As noted before, because the WWE Network costs were expected to escalate after a million subscribers, the 5% WWE Network growth scenario (just around 1 million subscibers) was actually a higher OBIDA than the 10% growth scenario.

COMMENTARY

For the record, I established growth at about 2% for the rest of the year, and expect somewhere between 33% and 66% of domestic buys retention.  That would put the OBIDA range from $37M to $29M.

I don't consider that a failure, but it's not an astounding success either.  Note that I haven't included any estimates for what other revenue cannibalization might look like (Home Entertainment, Digital Media).

The key is that right now WWE makes between $34.1M (2013) to $44.9M (2012) in PPV OBIDA.  So, in this scenario WWE manages to achieve the same OBIDA but through working a lot harder and generating more top-line revenue.  With the possibility of more PPV providers dropping coverage (ala DirecTV), I'm not sure they can grow the WWE Network fast enough to make up for lost PPV OBIDA.

All Analysis by Chris Harrington (chris.harrington@gmail.com)

Estimating 2014 Profitability for WWE PPV w/ WWE Network

Yesterday, WWE reported 400,000 US homes purchased Wrestlemania XXX via traditional PPV means.  With internal expectactions running at about 250,000, this number was considered a large sucess for the WWE since domestic buys were only at about 66% of last year's level.

I was joined by David Bixenspan (@davidbix) to discuss these numbers on a quick 15 minute podcast which was a great follow-up to my one-hour broadcast with Bix last week  discussing the relevance of the 667,287 subscriber numbers (a story that many media reports completely missed).

The challenge was: With the latest data, can we determine what the revenue & profit impact of the WWE Network looks like for 2014?

Here's my take....

KNOWN DATA

Here is PPV Revenue 2011-2013 by Quarter (see trending schedules 2011-2013 from corporate.wwe.com)


YEAR: Q1 / Q2 / Q3 /Q4
2011: 13.5 / 34.4 / 15.8 / 14.6
2012: 13.5 / 40.8 / 16.3 / 13.0
2013: 15.1 / 37.1 / 14.6 / 15.7

From the latest annual report:

Pay-per-view net revenues were $82.5 million, $83.6 million and $78.3 million, representing 16%, 17% and 16% of total net revenues in 2013, 2012 and 2011, respectively, of which $66.9 million, $66.4 million, and $61.3 million were generated domestically.

2011-2013 PPV Buys

2011
Royal Rumble 2011 (1/30/2011): 281k North American buys + 195k other buys outside North America {Q1}
Elimination Chamber 2011 (2/20/2011): 145k North American buys + 67k other buys outside North America {Q1}
WrestleMania XXVII (4/3/2011): 679k North American buys + 445k other buys outside North America {Q2}
Extreme Rules 2011 (5/1/2011): 108k North American buys + 108k other buys outside North America {Q2}
Over the Limit 2011 (5/22/2011): 72k North American buys + 73k other buys outside North America {Q2}
Capitol Punishment 2011 (6/19/2011): 85k North American buys + 91k other buys outside North America {Q2}
Money in the Bank 2011 (7/17/2011): 146k North American buys + 59k other buys outside North America {Q3}
SummerSlam 2011 (8/14/2011): 180k North American buys + 131k other buys outside North America {Q3}
Night of Champions 2011 (9/18/2011): 109k North American buys + 60k other buys outside North America {Q3}
Hell in a Cell 2011 (10/2/2011): 98k North American buys + 84k other buys outside North America {Q4}
Vengeance 2011 (10/23/2011): 65k North American buys + 56k other buys outside North America {Q4}
Survivor Series 2011 (11/20/2011): 179k North American buys + 133k other buys outside North America {Q4}
TLC 2011 (12/18/2011): 98k North American buys + 81k other buys outside North America {Q4}

2012
Royal Rumble 2012 (1/29/2012): 299k North American buys + 184k other buys outside North America {Q1}
Elimination Chamber 2012 (2/19/2012): 138k North American buys + 56k other buys outside North America {Q1}
WrestleMania XXXVIII (4/1/2012): 715k North American buys + 504k other buys outside North America {Q2}
Extreme Rules 2012 (4/29/2012): 159k North American buys + 112k other buys outside North America {Q2}
Over the Limit 2012 (5/20/2012): 124k North American buys + 48k other buys outside North America {Q2}
No Way Out 2012 (6/17/2012): 110k North American buys + 90k other buys outside North America {Q2}
Money in the Bank 2012 (7/15/2012): 114k North American buys + 92k other buys outside North America {Q3}
SummerSlam 2012 (8/19/2012): 296k North American buys + 96k other buys outside North America {Q3}
Night of Champions 2012 (9/16/2012): 112k North American buys + 95k other buys outside North America {Q3}
Hell in a Cell 2012 (10/28/2012): 157k North American buys + 50k other buys outside North America {Q4}
Survivor Series 2012 (11/18/2012): 125k North American buys + 91k other buys outside North America {Q4}
TLC 2012 (12/16/2012): 75k North American buys + 106k other buys outside North America {Q4}

2013
Royal Rumble 2013 (1/27/2013): 364k North American buys + 215k other buys outside North America {Q1}
Elimination Chamber 2013 (2/17/2013): 181k North American buys + 60k other buys outside North America {Q1}
WrestleMania 29 (4/7/2013): 662k North American buys + 442k other buys outside North America {Q2}
Extreme Rules 2013 (5/19/2013): 137k North American buys + 108k other buys outside North America {Q2}
Payback 2013 (6/16/2013): 108k North American buys + 90k other buys outside North America {Q2}
Money in the Bank 2013 (7/14/2013): 169k North American buys + 54k other buys outside North America {Q3}
SummerSlam 2013 (8/18/2013): 207k North American buys + 125k other buys outside North America {Q3}
Night of Champions 2013 (9/15/2013): 103k North American buys + 93k other buys outside North America {Q3}
Battleground 2013 (10/6/2013): 81k North American buys + 33k other buys outside North America {Q4}
Hell in a Cell 2013 (10/27/2013): 130k North American buys + 98k other buys outside North America {Q4}
Survivor Series 2013 (11/24/2013): 94k North American buys + 83k other buys outside North America {Q4}
TLC 2013 (12/15/2013): 140k North American buys + 41k other buys outside North America {Q4}

REGRESSION (Buys -> Revenue)

We can estimate buys for 2014, but we want to compare revenue. We can run a regression where our inputs are Quarterly North American Buys x PPV Price & Quarterly Outside North American Buys x PPV Price and our output is Actual Quarterly PPV Revenue.


(x-axis is total PPV revenue from NA before splits, y-axis is total PPV revenue from INTL before splits - assumes same PPV price; size of bubble if actual WWE PPV revenue)

Inputs: x = NA buys, y = Buys from Outside NA, z = Price of PPV
Quarterly PPV Revenue generated during non-WM qtr = sum of QTRly {z*(x*.505 + y*.353)}
Quarterly PPV Revenue generated during WM qtr = sum of QTRly {z*(x*.632 + y*.125)}
With this formula, we can estimate how much revenue will be generated.

So, for Q1 2014:

Royal Rumble 2014 (1/26/2014) - 285k NA buys, 160k outside NA buys
Elimination Chamber 2014 (2/23/2014) - 156k NA buys, 47k outside NA buys

I'll assume PPV price of $44.95 (consistent with what was assumed for 2011/2012/2013. (While there is a greater percentage of folks buying PPV in HD, this is a decent proxy since our regression is handling the buys to revenue conversion -- I'm applying the same percentage as last year so it should be in the ballpark.)

Q1 2014 revenue estimate: (441,000*.505+207,000*.353)*44.95 = $13.3M (a drop from 2013 since Rock wasn't wrestling, in line with 2011/2012).

ESTIMATE BUYS FOR REST OF 2014

This is, of course, the great unknown. What do we assume for baseline for WWE PPVs? How much should we adjust?

Here's how I handled it:
a. Take the average of 2011/2012/2013 buys (split into NA and non-NA)
b. Assume 60% retention for NA buys
c. Assume 95% retention for non-NA buys

Q2 2014
WrestleMania XXX (4/6/2014): 400,000 US homes + 66,000 Canadian homes + 440,483 non-NA homes
Extreme Rules 2014 (5/4/2014): 81,000 NA homes + 104,000 non-NA homes
Payback 2014 (6/1/2014): 58,000 NA homes + 80,000 non-NA homes
Money in the Bank 2014 (6/29/2014 ): 73,000 NA homes + 75,000 non-NA homes
Estimated Q2 revenue: $28.4M

Q3 2014
Battleground 2014 (7/20/2014): 86,000 NA homes + 65,000 non-NA homes
SummerSlam 2014 (8/17/2014 ): 137,000 NA homes + 111,000 non-NA homes
Night of Champions 2014 (9/21/2014): 65,000 NA homes + 79,000 non-NA homes
Estimated Q3 revenue: $10.6M

Q4 2014
Hell in a Cell 2014 (10/26/2014): 77,000 NA homes + 73,000 non-NA homes
Survivor Series 2014 (11/23/2014): 80,000 NA homes + 97,000 non-NA homes
TLC 2014 (12/14/2014): 63,000 NA homes + 72,000 non-NA homes
Estimated Q4 revenue: $8.8M

Total estimate 2014 PPV Revenue was: $13.3M+$28.4M+$10.6M+$8.8M = $61.1M (about $45.8M domestic PPV revenue)

ESTIMATE OTT REVENUE FOR 2014

* I assumed that there's about 2% growth for the rest of year. That would end the year around 800,000 subscribers.



Estimate WWE Network Revenue in 2014
Q1: $4.15M
Q2: $19.99M (ends 700k subscribers)
Q3: $22.06M (ends 750k subscribers)
Q4: $23.41M (ends 800k subscribers)

Combined Revenue Streams and Examine Profitability

PPV = Pay-per-view; OTT = Over-the-top (WWE Network)

2014 PPV + OTT
Q1 = $13.3M (PPV) + $4.1M (OTT) = $17,446,000
Q2 = $28.4M (PPV) + $20.0M (OTT) = $48,408,000
Q3 = $10.6M (PPV) + $22.1M (OTT) = $32,628,000
Q4 = $8.8M (PPV) + $23.4M (OTT) = $32,243,000
TOTAL: $61.11M (PPV) + $69.61M (OTT) = $130,725,000

Estimate Expenses:
PPV
2011 PPV OBIDA = $39.8M from $78.3M revenue (51%)
2012 PPV OBIDA = $44.9M from $83.6M revenue (54%)
2013 PPV OBIDA = $34.1M from $82.5M revenue (41%)
Average: 49%

We'll assume median PPV cost of $38.7M

Estimated 2014 PPV OBIDA = $61.M - $38.7M = $22.4M

OTT

2014 OTT Expenses (prior to cannibalization) was $55M in the original WWE presentation for levels under 1 million subscribers.

Estimate 2014 OTT OBIDA = $69.61M - $55.00M = $14.61M

Combined OBIDA (prior to other cannibalization): $14.6M (OTT) + $22.4M (PPV)  = $37M (28%)

HOME ENTERTAINMENT

I haven't included any estimate for what this will do the Home Entertainment Business, which is another source of revenue cannibalization.
Last year, Home Entertainment Revenue was $24.3M and OBIDA on that segment was $8.8M (36%).

Conclusion

Ultimately, with these assumptions (I left out international WWE Network launch because that adds both more expenses and drops buys), we end up with OBIDA for PPV+OTT basically between 2011/2013 levels. Revenue is up a lot, but so are costs. And I'm not sure if the $55M costs that WWE listed really will include the full burden for launch/start-up/marketing elements. So, at this point, it appears to be a wash, but I've got a lot of assumptions that B-level PPVs continue at 60% of the baseline, which seems very high to me.  If you want to apply ridiculous growth rates to WWE Network, you can make it look great. If you want to assume b-level PPV dropoff is much more severe than I assumed (60% of previous baseline), then it's going to look weaker.
-Chris Harrington (@mookieghana)

Other important reads:

* Needham Research Estimates 2014-2016 Financials for WWE

* My analysis of Needham's report: Grossly Overestimating future Revenues.

As always, feel free to talk to me at chris.harrington@gmail.com

WWF 1987-1992 Draw #Wrestlenomics

I looked at what I had for attendance for people who were in the ring alongside IC/World Champion and/or in the last match of the night. I excluded PPVs and Japanese shows. You needed a minimum number of entries on this list in order to be included (15 for 1980-1986, 25 for 1987-1992).  Average attendance was calculated based on cities that had attendance figures from The History of WWE. It's an imperfect method and obviously cities of different sizes were run on the same day. However, I think when we see some of the same people over and over again in the biggest cities that says something both about how the WWF viewed that person as a draw as well as possible evidence of their actual drawing power.
(I wouldn't suggest there's a real material difference within most tier - i.e. Kamala vs Killer Kahn vs One Man Gang in 1987 -- all three were the opponents Hogan had on the road and did quite well with.)

I looked at what I had for attendance for people who were in the ring alongside IC/World Champion and/or in the last match of the night.  I excluded PPVs and Japanese shows. 

Also, I wouldn't suggest there's a real material difference within most tier - i.e. Kamala vs Killer Kahn vs One Man Gang in 1987 -- all three were the opponents Hogan had on the road and did quite well with.

LLL AAA made a good point that TV tapings may distort things.

1980
 Bob Backlund (14083)
 Pat Patterson (13557)
 Ken Patera (12022)

1981
 Bob Backlund (12370), Pedro Morales (11879),  Don Muraco (11685),  Tony Garea (11648),  Rick Martel (11365)
 Angelo Mosca (10515)

1982
 Bob Backlund (10748), Pedro Morales (10383)
 Greg Valentine (8927),  Mr Saito (8689), Mr Fuji (8598)

1983
 Rocky Johnson (10613), Jimmy Snuka (9863), Don Muraco (9841), Bob Backlund (9522)

1984
Hulk Hogan (10447), Paul Orndorff (10321), David Schultz (10261)
Rocky Johnson (9836), Iron Sheik (9549)
Tito Santana (8908), Sgt Slaughter (8860), Greg Valentine (8226), Big John Studd (8139)
Roddy Piper (7450), Jimmy Snuka (7417), Ivan Putski (7254)
Andre the Giant (5836)

1985
 Hulk Hogan (11116), Randy Savage (10548)
 Don Muraco (9025), Roddy Piper (9015)
 Ricky Steamboat (8504), Brutus Beefcake (8477), Big John Studd (8408), Greg Valentine (7998), Bob Orton Jr (7890), Junkyard Dog (7738), Andre the Giant (7614), Tito Santana (7585), Paul Orndorff (7502), King Kong Bundy (7497)
 Nikolai Volkoff (7262), Ken Patera (6803), Jimmy Snuka (6282), Iron Sheik (6111), Barry Windham (5888), Mike Rotundo (5804)

1986
 Hulk Hogan (11539), Paul Orndorff (11471)
 Big John Studd (9061), Don Muraco (8861),  Blackjack Mulligan (8830), Dynamite Kid (8816), Greg Valentine (8773), Brutus Beefcake (8664), Randy Savage (8612), Roddy Piper (8546), Tito Santana (8500), Davey Boy Smith (8244)
 King Kong Bundy (8062), Adrian Adonis (7911), George Steele (7291), Dory Funk Jr (7092), Junkyard Dog (7074)
 Ricky Steamboat (5723), Jake Roberts (5260)

1987
TIER A: Kamala (9972), Hulk Hogan (9791), One Man Gang/Akeem (9546), Killer Khan (9420)
TIER B: King Kong Bundy (8494), Ricky Steamboat (8077), Randy Savage (7807)
TIER C: George Steele (7116), Honkytonk Man (7071), Harley Race (6847), Billy Jack Haynes (6826), Junkyard Dog (6618), Bret Hart (6608), Hercules (6443), Jim Neidhart (6430), Butch Reed (6255), Haku (6239), Paul Orndorff (6194), Dynamite Kid (6096), Jake Roberts (6037)

1988
TIER A: Big Bossman (9955), Hulk Hogan (9792), Bam Bam Bigelow (9161), Ultimate Warrior (8467)
TIER B: Honkytonk Man (7649), Randy Savage (7646), Andre the Giant (7559), Jim Neidhart (7556), Ted DiBiase (7541), Rick Martel (7533), Bret Hart (7452)
TIER C: Brutus Beefcake (6201), Tito Santana (5825), Jake Roberts (5614), Rick Rude (5543), Jim Duggan (5038), One Man Gang/Akeem (4826)

1989
TIER A: Hulk Hogan (10603), Randy Savage (9655), Roddy Piper (9479), Big Bossman (9424)
TIER B: Bad News Brown (8118), Ted DiBiase (7735)
TIER C: Ultimate Warrior (7294), Rick Rude (7152), Andre the Giant (6488), Bill Eadie (6391), Barry Darsow (6391), Brutus Beefcake (5999), Jim Duggan (5881), Jake Roberts (5856), Marty Jannetty (5378), Shawn Michaels (5378)

1990
TIER A: Hulk Hogan (9018)
TIER B: Brutus Beefcake (7393), Mr Perfect (7222), Rick Rude (6795), Roddy Piper (6676), Jake Roberts (6302), Ultimate Warrior (6270), Dino Bravo (6268), Kerry Von Erich (6096)
TIER C: Jim Duggan (5797), Earthquake (5713), Big Bossman (5553), Crush (5522), Ted DiBiase (5456), Bret Hart (5191), Jim Neidhart (5191), Fred Ottman (5143), Barry Darsow (5141), Legion of Doom (4880), Randy Savage (4860)

1991
TIER A: Hulk Hogan (8818), Earthquake (7913), Ric Flair (7873), Mr Perfect (7609)
TIER B: Sgt Slaughter (7095), Jacques Rougeau (7082), Ted DiBiase (7049), Nasty Boys (6945), Ultimate Warrior (6629), Undertaker (6261), Bret Hart (6238), Roddy Piper (6077)
TIER C: Davey Boy Smith (5814), Jim Duggan (5666), Warlord (5306), Big Bossman (5120), Randy Savage (4507), Jake Roberts (4364)

1992
TIER A: Sid Justice (8561), Hulk Hogan (7928)
TIER B: Roddy Piper (6974), Jacques Rougeau (6973)
TIER C: Jake Roberts (5522), Undertaker (5433), Ric Flair (5334), Randy Savage (5297), Nailz (4927), Davey Boy Smith (4890), Bret Hart (4890), Razor Ramon (4555), Kamala (4442), Shawn Michaels (4368)
TIER D: Ultimate Warrior (3726), Papa Shango (3714)

1996
(No one was really a Tier A draw at that time. Warrior's 5211 would have been right between Goldust and Vader)
TIER B: Bret Hart (6767), Shawn Michaels (5963), Undertaker (5954), Goldust (5567)
TIER C: Vader (4971), Mankind (4802), Hunter Hearst Helmsley (4556), Marc Mero (4212)

Obviously, if you add back in PPVs/Tokyo Domes/etc, that will prop up some of the numbers for those champions/headliners/challengers at that time.

People who were relevant for several years
TIER A: Hulk Hogan (575) = 9609 average

TIER B: Big Bossman (192) = 7453 average, Mr Perfect (318) = 7340 average, Honkytonk Man (377) = 7297 average, Roddy Piper (198) = 7199 average, Ted DiBiase (263) = 7143 average, Randy Savage (828) = 7112 average, Andre the Giant (213) = 7097 average, One Man Gang/Akeem (110) = 6919 average

TIER C: Jacques Rougeau (120) = 6752 average, Rick Rude (266) = 6601 average, Earthquake (129) = 6598 average, Ultimate Warrior (675) = 6573 average, Jim Neidhart (155) = 6299 average, Brutus Beefcake (145) = 6207 average

TIER D: Davey Boy Smith (185) = 6034 average, Undertaker (210) = 5943 average, Bill Eadie (113) = 5872 average, Bret Hart (474) = 5843 average, Rick Martel (106) = 5766 average, Barry Darsow (155) = 5743 average, Ric Flair (217) = 5741 average, Jake Roberts (289) = 5681 average, Tito Santana (122) = 5510 average, Jim Duggan (199) = 5374 average, Shawn Michaels (315) = 5309 average

That's my #wrestlenomics on the subject.

4.11.2014 Analysis by @mookieghana 

Statistics on 1987-1992 dataset

Matches in dataset: 26,309

Events in dataset: 3,273

Events with Attendance in dataset: 1,766

Wrestlers with 20 or more "main events": 91

Awesome Draws: 1 - Hulk Hogan.
 

Who could take over after Vince McMahon?

Dave Meltzer brought up this point on last night's Wrestling Observer radio: it's not clear that Paul Levesque has the business experience that would be required to run the whole WWE.

If you look at the candidates they range from his family (Linda, Stephanie, Shane, HHH) to current top ranks (Chief Strategy & CFO George Barrios, revenue & marketing officer Michelle Wilson, long-time right-hand man vice president Kevin Dunn) to former directors (Ex-COO Basil DeVito, Ex-CFO Mike Sileck, Ex-EVP Donna Goldsmith). However, while these individuals have requisite experience with WWE and demonstrated their leadership skills, they're all quite imperfect. They understand the challenges and demands of the running such a busy enterprise, and appreciate the unique industry space that WWE occupies. But none of these candidates truly have the complete skill set required to wrangle the many revenue arms of the WWE. I can't see any of them as truly effective leaders of the current company.

They're a TV company, they're an over-the-top streaming service company, they're an entertainment/talent company, they're still sort of a PPV company, they're an online website company, they're a merchandising & licensing company, they're a video game company, they're a Film product/distribution company, they're a publishing company, they're a live event company, etc.

I can't imagine a hired hand that could eat, sleep and breathe wrestling like Vince. He's had the benefit of being on top of the empire as it's evolved over these years. Would it work better to just install a competent manager who can then have underlings direct each of the major divisions? Do they need another crazy billionaire (ala Mark Cuban)? About the only job with as many headaches (talent, TV negotiations, merchandising, embracing new media, etc.) would seem to be like the GM of a major sports franchise.

Can anyone think of another company that had to go through a similar transition from powerful patriarch to next generation successfully? Disney, Ringling Bros./Barnum & Bailey Circus, Ford, NewsCorp?  Who do you think could succeed Vince McMahon?

WWE Network announces 667,287 Subscribers

This morning the WWE announced that the WWE Network currently had 667,287 subscribers. I've written an extensive analysis of what this means over at Whatculture.

While WWE can project this as a great number using language like “fastest-growing digital subscription service” and “on track to 1 million subscribers”, this number is hardly a slam-dunk.  It's at the bottom edge of what is the acceptable number.  If the WWE Network needs 1M domestic subscribers to break even (on OIBDA), now that Wrestlemania is over, where are they going to find the last 250,000?

In recent weeks, I'd grown more optimistic about what they were going to announce so I must admit I was a little shocked when they admitted they were only at 2/3rds of a million subscribers. However, I was reminded by @voicesofwrestling that I'd actually predicted 650,000 by Wrestlemania in a piece that I wrote one week after the WWE Network launch.

If you’re interested in BREAKING NEWS AUDIO, Bleacher Repot’s David Bixenspan, Chris Harrington (and Rich from Voicesofwrestling) just did a one-hour #wrestlenomics Radio show all about the WWE Network Subscription #s: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/indeedwrestling/2014/04/07/wrestlenomics-radio–wwe-network-subscribers-announced
Direct MP3 link: http://blogtalk.vo.llnwd.net/o23/show/6/297/show_6297327.mp3

READING MATERIAL:

* What Does 667,287 Subscribers Mean For WWE Network? by @mookieghana
* Biggest Takeaways from WWE Subscriber Numbers Announcement by @davidbix
* Nasdaq Dives as Investors Bolt for Value Stocks by Barrons

Somehow, someone finally woke up and started talking about how zany the stock pricing for $WWE was versus their fundamentals. I'll say it until the cows come home, while these WWE Network numbers aren't great, what matters most is the WWE Domestic TV Rights renewal.  I never expected WWE to make money on the WWE Network in 2014, so the fact it's off to an adequate (but realistic) start is fine. It's the TV rights that are completely impossible to pin down -- half of the media articles just reword WWE's talking points (WE ARE LIVE SPORTS~!) as if it's original commentary. They ignore the reality where advertisers don't spend good money to be in front of pro-wrestling fan eyeballs.  Once they can bridge that gap, we'll know what's really going on.  Until then, I'm sticking with my prediction of about 1.5x rights (~$159M domestic) and they stay on NBCU.

Read the new piece: What Does 667,287 Subscribers Mean For WWE Network? 

New Episode of Wrestlenomics Radio (4/5/14)

We'll be back LIVE tomorrow at 1 PM (EST) for a brand new edition of Wrestlenomics Radio with host Chris Harrington and guest Rich Kraetsch of Voices of Wrestling.

You can tune-in live at Blog Talk Radio!

Discussion will include:

• Requisite Wrestlemania weekend preview 
• Discussion on the drawing power (or lack thereof) of Randall Orton. 
• Whether Randy will be WON HOF worthy
• Latest House Show Draw Analysis
• Latest on WWE Network subscriber numbers & TV Rights Fees (WhatCulture)
• Discussion of one-sided TV feuds
• Whether winning percentage does anything for you when you're headed into WM. 
• Plus your calls & more!

Hope you can join us.

Ultimate Warrior Lawsuit (2 hour podcast)

Wrestlenomics Radio Chronology

• 2.12.14 Ep1: http://www.voicesofwrestling.com/2014/02/12/wrestlenomics-radio-kayfabermetrics/ w/ Matthew Timnons (Kayfabermetrics)
• 3.15.14 Ep2: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/indeedwrestling/2014/03/15/the-beginning-of-something-special
• 3.22.14 Ep3: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/indeedwrestling/2014/03/22/rookies-mookies-and-wookies
• 3.29.14 Ep4: http://indeedwrestling.podbean.com/2014/03/29/wrestlenomics-radio-w-special-guest-bix-32914/ w/ Bix

I recorded a great episode yesterday for Wrestlenomics Radio.  Bix joined the show for the full two hours and we spent more than half of the time discussing the Ultimate Warrior lawsuit(s).  It was a terrific show.  I hope you'll listen! 

Details of the SummerSlam 1991 Payoff Sheet is up at https://sites.google.com/site/chrisharrington/mookieghana-prowrestlingstatistics/summerslam1991 and http://imgur.com/a/HVO0C#0

SummerSlam 1991 Payroll REVEALED

Great piece by @WoolyWoolhouse over at WhatCulture, WWE: 10 Surprising Revelations From The 1991 Summerslam Payroll Sheet



It's another fun companion piece to Bix's great piece about the Ultimate Warrior in the latest issue of FSM. The payroll for the event was one of the exhibits in the lawsuit which Bix was chronicling.

Also, as a follow-up to yesterday's discussion, it's pretty much been confirmed that the T-Rex skull on Vince's wall is a replica.  But it's still awesome.

Fact-Checking Forbes' piece on Vince McMahon

http://www.forbes.com/sites/msolomon/2014/03/26/vince-mcmahons-over-the-top-move-why-the-billionaire-ceo-is-betting-big-on-the-new-wwe-network/

There were several claims made in this article that surprised or befuddled me.  Let's begin:

The shares are flying both because WWE is seeking a new television contract, at more than twice its current rate of $160.9 million

I wish articles could get this right - or at least be more specific. WWE is negotiating their domestic TV contract which was $105.9M in CY2013. Their international TV contracts were $55.0M in CY2013. They've already settled on the UK BSkyB deal which was rumored to be at "three times the previous five year agreement" and starts in 2015 and the Germany deal with Tele 5 which starts in April 2014. I believe they are also working on their TV deal in India (currently on Ten Sports) which has historically been coming up in 5-year increments (2005-2009, 2010-2014) so would likely start in 2015.

...persistent speculation that McMahon, who has never articulated a clear succession plan, might sell the company outright (both Comcast and the Madison Square Garden Co. have been rumored as suitors)

I also wrote about "the 5 types of companies that would want to buy WWE" but I don't believe it's going to happen at all.

Another bright spot: Emerging market revenue has been growing at a 7% annual rate for a decade in countries such as India, Mexico, and even South Korea, to $116 million last year.

That is a baffling claim. WWE made $507,970,000 in revenue in 2013. $391,663,000 was in North America. That's leaves $116,307,000 so apparently they're considering UK, the WWE's "largest international market" as part of the "emerging market revenue". I think it's questionable to consider a market that WWE has been in for more than twenty years to be "emerging".



So, in the past five years, Latin American (Mexico) revenue has dropped from $12.4M to $6.6M, UK was essentially been flat, other Europe/Africa/Middle East (which include India) is down 5%. The only area of growth is Asia Pacific and that's going to be pretty diverse: Japan, South Korea, Philippines, China, etc.

It’s a move that directly endangers both WWE’s PPV revenues ($82.5 million)

Domestic PPV revenue in 2013 was $66.9M. International PPV revenue was $15.6M. Again, since you're talking about the launch of the domestic WWE Network, it would make more sense to differentiate between the two.

In his black-and-red office at WWE headquarters in Stamford, Conn. McMahon stares at a stark reminder of what motivates him. To the left of his desk, mounted on square panels of what looks like scarlet fur, is an enormous dinosaur skull. The fearsome open jaw was a gift from his son-in-law, Paul Levesque, better known to wrestling fans by his nom de guerre, Triple H. And the metaphor isn’t lost on McMahon.

(From the Multi-channel News interview in July 2012)

Or it could be the competition–whether it’s mixed martial arts, the NFL or Marvel superhero movies that are vying for his younger viewers, 21% of whom are under 18.

Their website says 19%. Either way, that sounds right.

Over the past two years WWE has spent $75 million preparing for the launch of the WWE Network, which went live on Feb. 24.

That's an interesting number. At the last conference call they said:

Daniel Moore - CJS Securities, Inc.: Okay, and then lastly and then I will jump back in queue, I know it’s tough to break out but what would be a ballpark range total spend in 2013 on the P&L for the build out our anticipation of the network?
George A. Barrios: We probably had about $12 million that you could directly associate with the network on the P&L, but obviously that doesn’t include the marketing cost, customer services cost, transmission cost and so on so forth that, come about when we go live.

He has been promising fans and investors a WWE Network since 2011, and in that time the vision for it has changed dramatically. It was first conceived as WWE’s version of the MLB or NFL Network. In theory a channel devoted to wrestling makes even more sense than a professional sports league, since, unlike baseball or football, WWE doesn’t have an off-season. (It puts on more than 300 live shows, 52 weeks a year.) But McMahon claims that model was only going to generate an anemic 20 cents per month per subscriber, roughly on par with third-tier networks like MSNBC and Bravo, $0.21 and $0.24 a month, respectively (almighty ESPN commands an astronomical $5.54 a month). So he walked away.

That's the first time I've heard specific numbers for what they would have received. The "Vince walked away" story was covered by the LA Times back in January.

For $9.99 per month (and a six-month commitment) subscribers will have access to more than 130,000 hours of WWE programming, matches that date back to the 1950s. There are also original programming and a “second screen” experience on the WWE app that allows viewers to interact with one another and watch live content during commercials.

There is like 1,500 hours of programming on the WWE Network. The 130,000 hour number is the total amount in their library. Big difference!

Naturally some of WWE’s television partners felt sucker punched by the over-the-top strategy. In advance of the launch DISH Network announced that it was dropping all WWE’s pay-per-views–including WrestleMania XXX on Apr. 6.

I assume this article was completed prior to learning that Dish apparently has relented and will carry WM.

In the end it was Ted Turner. In 2001 he sold the name rights of WCW to WWF for $2.5 million, plus the entire video library of matches. (Today you can watch them all on the WWE Network.)

As summarized by Voices of Wrestling:

McMahon bought the WCW trademarks for $2.5 million ($3.3 million with inflation) and later secured the archived tape library for $1.7 million, bringing the total to $4.2 million which translates to roughly $5.5 million with inflation.

While the WWE has yet to release how many subscribers it has to date, two longtime wrestling observers estimated that at least 250,000 signed up for the service on the first day, which would put the company well on its way to the million it needs to break even.

Wait. Is Forbes talking about what I wrote using the survey data that Bix gathered?

One analyst recently predicted the WWE could even exceed its own goals and acquire 6 million to 8 million subscribers.

WHO IS THIS ANALYST?  God help anyone who is letting this person control their money.

EDIT: It was Robert Routh in a CNN article.  That surprises me a little bit because Routh is a smart guy and has been covering WWE Stock for a very long time.  I once had a conversation with him back in January 2006.

Not everyone is sanguine about those prospects, however. Intrepid Capital Management was WWE’s largest outside shareholder until January 2014, when it sold its 10% stake in the public float at a 100% profit. Intrepid portfolio manager Jayme Wiggins believes the WWE Network will be a tougher sell. The network “is a slam dunk for a die-hard fan,” which Wiggins estimates to be a core of 700,000, “but I don’t think it’s going to be easy for them to get another 500,000.”

I AGREE COMPLETELY.

- Chris Harrington (@mookieghana) 

chris.harrington@gmail.com

Wellness Violations

Reviewing lists provided by http://www.wrestlingnewsworld.com/wwe/wwe-suspensions/ and http://www.pwpix.net/information/wwesuspensions/

Below are the violators of the WWE Wellness Policy since November 1, 2007
11/2/07 D.H. Smith (real name Harry Smith) – 30 days (1st)
11/2/07 Chris Masters (real name Chris Mordetzky) – 60 days (2nd)
1/16/08 Derrick Linkin (real name Derrick Neikirk)
1/16/08 Chett the Jet (real name Neil Bzibziak)
3/11/08 Jeff Hardy – 60 days (2nd)
3/20/08 Manu (real name Afa Anoa’i, Jr.) – 30 days ("Afa was believed to have been suspended not because he failed an actual Wellness Test but for trying to manipulate the test by not actually giving a real sample from his body.")
5/20/08 William Regal (real name Darren Matthews) – 60 days (2nd)
6/9/08 Jimmy Wang Yang (real name James Carson Yun) – 30 days (1st)
10/10/08 Dolph Ziggler (real name Nick Nemeth) – 30 days (1st)
6/8/09 Umaga (real name Eddie Fatu) – 2nd; "he was terminated for refusing to enter a rehabilitation program."
8/27/09 Rey Mysterio (real name Oscar Gutiérrez) – 30 days (1st)
5/21/10 Carlito (real name Carlos Colon) – 1st; released for "his refusal to enter a rehabilitation facility"
7/18/11 Sin Cara (real name Luis Ignascio) –1st
8/15/11 Mike Chioda – 1st

8/11 Andy Leavine - 30 days (1st)
10/6/11 Darren Young (real name Fred Rosser) – 30 days (1st) "suspended for smoking synthetic marijuana."
10/17/11 Heath Slater (real name Heath Miller) – 30 days (1st) "suspended for smoking synthetic marijuana."
11/1/11 Evan Bourne (real name Matthew Korklan) – 30 days (1st) "suspended for smoking synthetic marijuana."
11/22/11 R-Truth (real name Ron Killings) – 30 days (1st) "suspended for smoking synthetic marijuana."
1/17/12 Evan Bourne (real name Matthew Korklan) – 60 days (2nd) "suspended for smoking synthetic marijuana."
4/26/12 Rey Mysterio (real name Oscar Gutiérrez) - 60 days (2nd) "reportedly tested positive for amphetamines"
5/30/12 Randy Orton – 60 days (2nd.. or 5th) "positive test was caused by elevated testosterone levels due to Dianabol... traces of marijuana in his system."
7/2/13 Ricardo Rodriguez (real name Jesús Rodríguez) – 30 days (1st)

Others Prior to 11/1/07
2005 Randy Orton (2005): suspended for steroids?
4/4/06 Randy Orton: 60 days for “unprofessional conduct.” ("suspended for smoking marijuana backstage")
2006/2007 - Chavo Guerrero - Suspended for 30 days in 2006 or 2007
2007: Booker T - Suspended for 30 days in 2007
2007: Chris Kay - Suspended for 30 days in 2007
6/2006: Kurt Angle - Suspended for 30 days in June or July 2006
6/2006: Rene Dupree - Suspended for 30 days in June 2006
7/2006: Kid Kash - Suspended for 30 days in July 2006
7/2006: Rob Van Dam - Suspended for 30 days in July 2006
7/2006: Ryan Reeves (Ryback) - Suspended for 30 days in July 2006
8/2006: Randy Orton - Suspended for 30 days in August 2006
9/2006: Ryan O'Reilly - Suspended for 30 days in September 2006
9/2006 Balls Mahoney - Suspended for 30 days in September 2006

10/2006: Drew Hankinson (Luke Gallows) - Suspended for 30 days in October 2006
2/2007: Rene Dupree - Suspended for 60 days in February 2007
2/2007: Test - Suspended for 30 days in February 2007
4/2007: Chris Kay - Suspended for 60 days in April 2007
7/2007: Jeff Hardy - Suspended for 30 days in July 2007
8/30/07 Signature Pharmacy: suspended 10 performers
* Booker T - Suspended for 60 days on August 30, 2007
* Charlie Haas - Suspended for 30 days on August 30, 2007
* Chavo Guerrero - Suspended for 60 days on August 30, 2007
* Chris Masters - Suspended for 30 days on August 30, 2007
* Edge - Suspended for 30 days on August 30, 2007
* Funaki - Suspended for 30 days on August 30, 2007
* Gregory Helms - Suspended for 30 days on August 30, 2007
* John Morrison - Suspended for 30 days on August 30, 2007
* Mr. Kennedy - Suspended for 30 days on August 30, 2007
* Snitsky - Suspended for 30 days on August 30, 2007
* Umaga - Suspended for 30 days on August 30, 2007
* William Regal - Suspended for 30 days on August 30, 2007

New Wrestlenomics Radio, New WhatCulture Pieces, New everything!

This month I started exclusively writing stuff over at WhatCulture.com. I've also had several friends start publishing pieces over there as well.

Looking for something to read? Here's we go!


Things I've written:
* WWE Wrestlemania 30: Why Dish relented and Will Carry It 3/25/14 (new today!)

* WWE Royal Rumble & Elimination Chamber 2014 Buy Estimates 3/21/14
* WWE: John Cena Has Not Had 3,500 Matches 3/19/14
* WWE: Analysing The 5 Networks WWE Is Negotiating TV Rights With 3/18/14
* 5 Companies That Would Want To Buy WWE 3/15/14
* 10 Ways WWE Can Maintain Their Current Business Success 3/10/14
* WWE's Current 15 Year Stock High Is Tied To Their Domestic TV Future 3/5/14
* 14 WWE Network Risks That WWE Worries About 3/05/14

Things by my friends...


The Czar:
* WWE: 8 Reasons Bray Wyatt Will Fail After WrestleMania 30 3/24/14
* WWE: 10 Previous WrestleMania Triple Threat Matches 3/20/14
* 6 WWE Divas That Never Held The Title 3/16/14
* WWE: 14 Gross-Out Moments That Made You Gag 3/12/14
* WWE: 12 Most Memorable Animal Sidekicks 3/6/14


Woolhouse:
* WWE: 10 Sexiest Diva Moments In WrestleMania History 3/25/14 (new today!)
* WWE: Ranking The Previous 12 Battle Royals In Wrestlemania History 3/19/14
* WWE: 10 Worst Intercontinental Title Matches To Watch On The WWE Network 3/12/14
* WWE: 12 Careers You Won’t Believe Stars Did After They Quit Wrestling 3/8/14
* WWE: 16 Other Wrestlers Who Are Undefeated At Wrestlemania 3/6/14


Hawkins (Crapgame13):
* WWE: 10 Times Real Life Political Troubles Fueled Top Heels 3/24/14

The other guys are a lot better writers than I am. There's a lot of lists, but you'll still see them raise some really interesting points.

For instance, one of my favorites was from Tom's piece about 8 Reasons Bray Wyatt Will Fail After WM30 #6:

Bray Wyatt cuts a great promo. He leads men into battle and they listen to every word he says. He watches intently ringside, invested in every move and movement his “Family” makes. He celebrates when they win; he scolds them when they lose. Now replace “Bray Wyatt” with Bobby Heenan and the last few sentences still read the same.

And yes, they're paid by the click so that's why you'll see people work on click-bait pieces like WWE: 10 Sexiest Diva Moments In WrestleMania History and they feel no shame for that. Nor should they.


Lastly, Pete Thornton has been getting lots of people agitated with his non-pro wrestling pieces including 10 Superheroes Who Should Get A Movie Before Wonder Woman and 10 Reasons Frozen Is Definitely NOT Disney’s Best Animated Movie This Decade. That's kind of his MO in life, so I am very amused.

In other news, I've got a new piece that should go live on WhatCulture in the next 24 hours:

• What SIX jobs does WWE need to create?

My WC editor has it now and are trying to strangle it into comprehensible English.

Also, a NEW EPISODE OF WRESTLENOMICS RADIO is available.  It's two hours long and we talk about some original WWE Rookie analysis I completed, WWE TV negotiations (including newcomer WGN), thoughts on the Royal Rumble & Elimination Chamber 2014 PPV numbers and a list of who has most of the worst pro-wrestling feuds of the last twenty years.  Also, we have live callers from around the world (literally).  Next live episode of Wrestlenomics radio will be this Saturday (3/29/14) at 1 PM EST/Noon CST with special guest David Bixenspan talking about Discrimination Lawsuits, Ultimate Warrior shenanigans, WCW Payroll and much more!  

Looking at the BIG FIVE NETWORKS

I've got a new piece up at WhatCulture analyzing the primary networks that been mentioned as potential bidders for the WWE domestic TV Rights (particularly Raw & Smackdown but also Total Divas, Superstars, Main Event, etc).

In the rumor-mill, there’s been five major conglomerates mentioned:

• NBCUniversal (USA, SyFy, E!)
• Viacom (Spike, MTV, VH1)
• 21st Century Fox (Fox, FS1, FS2, FX)
• Time Warner / Turner Broadcasting (TBS, TNT, TruTV)
• AMC Networks (AMC, IFC, We TV)

I look at the pro/con of each, particularly why they would and wouldn't be interested and whether they'd be a good fit.

The stock rally must be the TV deal, and I must admit that it's kind of confusing trying to sort out all of the vexing machinations.  Why would a network like Turner want to get back into the mix after more than a decade? (Are they trying to mess with USA? Are they hedging against losing TNT's NBA rights to Fox?) AMC is such a weird suitor, though they do have some "unscripted" programming like Comic Book Men or Small Town Security, so it's not like they're just Walking Dead & Mad Men. Fox would want to the ratings for FS1 but they wouldn't have a place for Total Divas, and it seems questionable whether they'd get both Raw & Smackdown. That pretty much just leaves Viacom and NBCU.  They both make sense as they've actually had the Raw contract. Right now, my gut still tells me they end up sticking with NBCU, but it's very possible that this stock surge may reinforce WWE's mentality that they deserve more.  And who knows if one of the TV networks might just bite down on that giant price-tag at the last second.

In other news, Cena has not had 3,500 matches.

Cheap Plug: If you're looking for a consultant for your investment firm or hedge fund to discuss $WWE, feel free to email me at indeedwrestling@gmail.com

Hey Buddy, want to buy WWE?

In the last few days, there's been two pieces looking at $WWE and who would hypothetically be interested enough to purchase the whole company.

• WhatCulture: 5 Companies that Would Want to Buy WWE by Chris Harrington
• Bloomberg: WWE Free-for-All Awaits If Founder Sets Sale: Real M&A by Tara Lachapelle

In the wake of Thursday's nutty stock spike & rumors, I became interested in the idea of what companies could conceivably integrate WWE.  In the end, my list of about dozen different types of entities was boiled down into five categories: (1) Mass Media Companies, (2) Internet Companies, (3) Crazy Billionaire, (4) Private Money/Sports Equity and (5) Live Event Promoter.

It's interesting to look at Lachapelle's list which includes: Comcast (Mass Media), MSG Square Garden Co. (Private Money/Sports Equity), AMC Media (Mass Media), Disney/Pixar (Mass Media) and Live Nation (Live Event Promoter).  At least I was able to come up with the same ideas as the big market analysts.

Of course, it's all a moot point since Vince McMahon controls over 90% of the voting rights for WWE through Class B shares which are exclusive to the McMahon Family and their Family trusts. VKM would have to want to sell, which seems highly unlikely based on history.

Also some good analysis by JDW over at ProWrestlingOnly discussing the enormous profit margins that Marvel, Pixar and LucasFilms had compared to WWE.  Honestly, this is all fun speculation, but it's not relevant.  WWE's lever of growth the past few years  has been TV Rights, and if they were acquired by a television company, that would just be passing money from left hand to right hand.  The agent of change for those companies is improving their advertising revenue from the shows.

WWE 2014 Trading Cards & Wrestlenomics Episode 2

On a whim, on my way out of Target, I decided to buy a box of 2014 WWE Trading Cards.
 $19.99!

 
Each pack is covered with non-jorts Cena!

 
10 packs and one commemorative plate card!

 
Whose? Kaitlyn!

 
Congratulations!

The cards:
 
I was surprised to see legends, superstars, divas and NXT wrestlers. Yes, I found Jojo, Big Zeke, Paige, El Torito, Curt Hawkins, Drew, Hunico and DDP. But only one Wyatt Family member. Sad.

I also recorded Episode 2 of Wrestlenomics Yesterday.  It was a live call-in show via BlogTalkRadio.

The Beginning of Something Special
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/indeedwrestling/2014/03/15/the-beginning-of-something-special 

Episode Two of #wrestlenomics radio is done.

This was a spur-of-the-moment live call-in show where I talked about WWE Network, WWE Financials, WWE TV Negotations, ideas for possible WWE suitors, ways to keep the WWE stock strong, my interaction with investment banks/hedge funds asking about WWE and lots more.

It was like a sprint so I talked and talked and talked and had David Parker on and talked and talked and then hung up. Hopefully, there's some good content in there and it's not so frantic that it's unlistenable.

New Audio and Weird Stock Spikes

I had a great conversation with my friend Alex Goff from Online World of Wrestling talking about the WWE Network, my history with Podcasts and pro-wrestling analytics and the nature of streaming media adoption.  It's a fun 45 discussion which you can listen to at their website or download the mp3 directly.  I had a lot of fun recording it.

Also, I wrote a piece on WhatCulture today's weird stock spike and the rumors behind it.  Since $WWE stock has got hot, I've talked to a few investment firms and hedge funds about the possible future for this company.  Moving forward, you'll find all my thoughts & analysis over at WhatCulture.
And while you're there, please check out some of my friends writing the website including:

• Adam Woolhouse  (@WoolyWoolhouse)
• Worst IC Title Matches
• 12 Post-WWE Careers 
• 16 Others Undefeated at WM
• Tom Czarniak (@midcardmambo)
• 12 Memorable WWE Animal Sidekicks
• What Community S6 needs
• 14 Gross-out WWE Moments

Both of these men have been good friends and excellent sounding boards for articles for many years.  I hope you'll support them by reading this pieces and commenting helpful things such as, "WWE BEST 4 LIFE LOL LOVE U JON SINA! ".    They'd really appreciate that.