WWE Chief Strategy and Financial Officer George Barrios at the UBS 41st Annual Global Media and Communications Conference

WWE Chief Strategy and Financial Officer George Barrios at the UBS 41st Annual Global Media and Communications Conference

Analysis by Chris Harrington (@mookieghana)

Yesterday (Dec 10), WWE CFO and newly appointed Chief Strategy Officer George Barrios presented at the UBS 41st Annual Global Media and Communications Conference (see agenda here) alongside some heavy-hitters including from Walt Disney, Manchester United, New York Times, Time Warner, Sprint, Fox, CBS, TiVo, Clear Channel, Verizon, AOL, Sinclair, News Corp, Viacom.

WWE has presented annually at this conference since at least 2006. (And previous to that, they made appearances at other related conferences such as the UBS Warburg Media Week Conference more than a decade ago. Linda McMahon often presented at these events prior to Barrios' arrival in 2008 replacing veteran WWE employee and then-CFO Frank Serpe).

While Barrios' presentation hasn't yet been posted on the WWE Corporate website, a replay should be available soon. Luckily, Stock Market Analysis Website Seeking Alpha does have a transcript from the event available: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1890451-world-wrestling-entertainments-management-presents-at-ubs-41st-annual-global-media-and-communications-conference-transcript?part=single

(As you read the transcript, one acronym you'll be seeing a lot is "MVPDs". That stands for "Multichannel Video Programming Distributor" which is just shorthand for the systems that deliver subscription television programming - namely various cable television systems and satellite providers.)

With Vince McMahon's looming January 8 announcement at CES, everyone is hungry for solid details amongst the rumormill.

Yet, unidentified analyst #2 probably put it best when they noted, "we know you are not in a position to announce anything today despite the swirl of rumors in the press." So while there are some interesting quotes from the conference, I don't think there's anything groundbreaking being announced except the acknowledgement about different costs between "over-the-top" and traditional distribution.

Let's begin the dissection:

• Notes on upping domestic "prime-time" programming from 4 hours to 6 hours (via adding an hour to Monday Night Raw and adding Ion's Main Event.) 
• Brags about deals with YouTube and Hulu Plus (though the mysterious Yahoo! deal from earlier this year is left out.) 
• Continuing to target the Indian market ("an absolute jewel for us")- specifically noting that they'd lower price toy line for that market. Also speaking of toys, expect to start seeing more "construction" (think LEGOs) WWE toys very soon from The Bridge Direct. 
• Lots of WWE-ized television metrics to attempt to prove that Raw & Smackdown are the most dominate programming in the history of man watching fire to stay entertained. No doubt a talking point stolen from the TV Rights negotiations is the claim that, "If Raw comes off USA they drop down to four or five (in cable channel rankings)." 
• Domestically 90% of their content is viewed live by the audience and they own 100% of the I.P. (This isn't a minor point - as a company like Netflix spends billions on rights fees each year. Barrios himself reiterated this point in the Q&A when he contrasted WWE's self-owned library with the enormous "cost of acquisition" that Netflix & HBO face.) The video library stands at "over 120,000 hours". They're really pushing the "live content viewing" as being another reason they are analogous to sports programming (and hence worthy of getting rate increases akin to NASCAR and others.) 
• Bizarre jab about NBC's Sound of Music: "Somebody told me they didn't like the show, did great numbers but it’s live." 
• We get a "We're Not Just White People!" speech about how NASCAR is 92% Caucasian while WWE is very diverse and over-indexes in Latino and African-American. 

Their Priorities are (and this is interesting to see Network leapfrog TV Contracts in this list):

I. WWE Network

II. TV Rights Contracts for Raw, Smackdown and UK/India Markets (or in corporate-speak, "key content agreements")

III. "Monetizing that large Digital Audience"

I. Regarding the WWE Network

"The network for us is taking those ala-carte pay-per-views, bundling them together, using our live range, our production capacity to program around those pay-per-views 24x7 linear as well as a large VOD component. Home entertainment library, previous pay-per-views, everything our fan is always clamoring about, all in one place. So that most valuable content that today costs $600 or $700 at retail, more linear content and VOD packages at somewhere between $10 and $15, we’ve done a lot of research."  - Barrios

They are admitting that for 3 hours of content, $45 to $65 is "pretty expensive". And also that while they're working with the distributors (MVPDs in their jargon) to "transform the pay-per-view business together", it's "been a bit of a slog". Translation: Cable & Satellite Operators aren't interested in giving up 50% split on high-dollar PPVs (even at the low domestic consumption rates for non-Wrestlemania events) in exchange for piece of a much cheaper new Premium Channel with more viewers. (We did the math in yesterday's blog.)

There's a lot of talk about "consumption of long form video over-the-top" that "we all have Netflix to thank for this." He's talking about using internet and cellular networks to deliver movies and television shows directly to us.

How do people watch streaming services?

• Directly on a computer (48% of Netflix users, 61% Hulu Plus users - increases from last year) 
• On Mobile Phone (11% of Netflix users, 10% of Hulu Plus users - large drop from last year) 
• Wii (26% of Netflix users, 12% of Hulu Plus users) 
• Internet-Enabled TV (12% of Netflix users, 9% of Hulu Plus users - down from last year) 
• Connecting Computer to TV (11% of Netflix users, 18% of Hulu Plus users) 
• On PS3 (12% of Netflix users, 12% of Hulu Plus users) 
• On iPad (5% of Netflix users, 12% of Hulu Plus users - down from last year) 
• On other Tablet (6% of Netflix users, 7% of Hulu Plus users) 
• Internet-connected BluRay Player (14% of Netflix users, 12% of Hulu Plus users) 
• XBox Live (13% of Netflix users, 16% of Hulu Plus users) 
• Roku Box (12% of Netflix users, 23% of Hulu Plus users)

Source: 2013 Nielsen "Over-the-Top Video Analysis"

I also want to emphasize that Barrios invoked Netflix's name in regards to the growing trend of watching streaming content -- not because the WWE was discussing launching their Network as a Netflix tier. He was crediting them with doing the work involved with "creating the environment and the consumption habit to watch long form video-over-the-top."

Barrios does specifically note that two years ago they didn't believe it was viable to build a network that would only be delivered "over-the-top" (i.e. online only/not as a basic or Premium channel). Now, they believe that it's possible.

However, Barrios insists that, "We continue to work with the MVPDs, see if we can knockout a deal in traditional distribution." In other words, WWE is still holding out hope and supposedly it's not a completely dead deal that you won't see a WWE Network available for subscription from your local cable company or satellite operator. Why is that? Simply put, they're still not sure they can get there. While "pricing is different, splits are different, costs are different ... about a million subscribers (is) break-even with your pay-per-view cannibalization".

Regarding the difference between an over-the-top network (online-only) and traditional Premium channel, Barrios did call out:

"If you go over-the-top you have significantly more costs, you have to do things like CDN costs, credit card fees, customer service."

Normally, these costs (bandwidth for VOD delivery, customer service, billing) are being handled by the MVPDs. In the alternative model, WWE would need to take these on (or more likely subcontract responsibility to another service such as MLB Advanced Media.)

II. Regarding Television Agreements

All four agreements (Raw on USA, Smackdown on SyFy, SkyB in UK and Taj TV in India) will begin by January 2015 and they believe they'll have their domestic agreements done by April 2014 (which is the same dates and same confidence they projected about 45 days ago at the 3rd Quarter Conference Call). Altogether, these four deals would represent about $100 million of their $140 million in "media licensing revenues". They do acknowledge that the NBA deal is still coming up but insist that since most of the other major live sports content have already been "signed up for the long term", WWE must be the real opportunity left out there.

III. Regarding Digital Products

While WWE has "220 million social media followers" they also admit that they are "not doing a good job" at monetizing that audience. Specifically, they want to look at "mobile goods, mobile apps, mobile gaming" (which may be related to the recent launch of John Cena's Fast Lane mobile app). It's not clear what exactly they're planning on doing in this realm, but it's apparently a big part of their three-track plan for the future.

Question and Answer Session

A few questions were about why WWE lags so far behind the other live content generators like NASCAR (and in major advertising from companies like Pepsi or Coke.) There isn't a real meaningful answer delivered and Barrios even ends with, "We can’t find data to explain the gap." There's certainly answers about in how the pro-wrestling audience has been perceived by advertisers in the past (a reputation that may or may not be rightly earned) but when you're trying to argue that there shouldn't be a gap, I didn't expect the CFO to start throwing out red flags why their brand might be tarnished. What's curious is how everyone is pretending they have "relatively young demographic" when a significant portion (half, I believe) of the WWE watching audience is over the age of 40.

The second question basically turned into Barrios lamenting that MVPDs won't get on board with the WWE Network.

George Barrios: "And the pushback continues. I want to be fair to -- you are having this commercial discussion, everybody wants what everybody wants and sometimes you can’t agree on what is fair terms. I don't want to mischaracterize the other side in the discussion. What I will say is I have not understood and still do not understand why the pay-per-view transition to a subscription service delivered by the MVPDs did not make sense, I still don't understand it."

A response to a later question discussed the company's investment in Tout. Barrios mentions they recently invested in Hero Ventures which is a company that "..develops and produces live entertainment experiences that excite and engage consumers through immersive innovation into worlds of iconic intellectual properties... Hero Ventures’ inaugural production is an ambitious touring property featuring Marvel Entertainment’s Universe of characters, including Spider-Man, Iron Man, The Incredible Hulk, Captain America, Thor, X-Men, The Fantastic Four, Wolverine, The Avengers and thousands more." (It's certainly no coincidence that the Hero Ventures Board of Directors includes WWE BOD member Basil DeVito)

Back to Tout, Barrios admits that "we said well, once we start using this on our show it's going to get downloaded by everybody who is watching, it's going to drive up the valuation". However, since Tout failed to capture the consumer market (no doubt impacted by popularity of Twitter's Vine), the Tout company strategy has shifted to becoming a "publishing tool" for outlets like the Wall Street Journal.

Regarding emerging markets, an interesting point is brought up about "what are the lessons learned around where the content really resonates?" WWE's reply is that they emphasize "localization" - such as editing the Middle East show to address sensibility concerns and doing voice-overs (announcers) for Mexico in Spanish. However, the more interesting discussion starts when Barrios alludes to looking for "deeper localization" when it comes to producing new content and utilizing their library - presumably as they look to launching the network both domestically but also internationally. (Barrios lists a number of countries - Canada, UK, Australia, Singapore, "Nordics" and Hong Kong - but that was more in the context of places where English-language content would do quite well should it be available internationally.)

Conclusion
In the end, it was the normal mix of WWE Corporate-speak and rose-colored glasses that one comes to expect when you read investor presentations or listen to conference calls. However, it seems to confirm that WWE is aggressively considering an "over-the-top" route (online only) as opposed to a Premium Channel, mostly because there still isn't enough interest from the MVPDs in switching from PPV income to Premium Channel income. We're less than a month away from the big 1/8/14 announcement - this may be the last serious batch of talking points from WWE until the CES event.

1 million subscribers...

David Parker asked a poignant question on Twitter:

Is it fair to suggest that a million streaming subscribers is more difficult to get than a million premium channel subscribers? 

It's a good question. 

We're talking about (as we have been for weeks) the WWE Network.  Does it have a better chance as a streaming network (using modern Gaming Consoles, iPads, Roku boxes, ChromeCast, PCs, possible mobile technology, etc.) and or a premium channel (via traditional Cable & Satellite Providers)?

It really comes down to support. 

If WWE had the full support of the cable & satellite providers, I think they could make a concerted push to reach a million subscribers. (Though this would no doubt involve incentives and bundling similar to what is done with premium channels such as HBO, Showtime, Encore, Starz, Cinemax). 

However, ultimately the evidence (demonstrated  by a lack of traction) suggests the conglomerates are not interested.  Participating cable and satellite operators would be forgoing the roughly half of the $45-$55 monthly PPV split they currently get in order to achieve a a monthly majority split on a $10-$15 premium channel.  

A. 250k subscribers at $10/month (60% split for the operator) = $18 million annually for operator

B. 250k subscribers at $15/month (60% split for the operator) = $27 million annually for operator

C. 500k subscribers at $10/month (60% split for the operator) = $36 million annually for operator

D. 500k subscribers at $15/month (60% split for the operator) = $54 million annually for operator

Meanwhile, WWE averages about 1.6 million domestic non-WM buys annually. That works out to about 133,000 buys a month.

133k monthly buys at $25/month = $40 million annually for operator

This state (current state) fits in snugly between scenario C and scenario D.

So, unless the cable & satellite operators believe WWE is going to pull at an average of 500,000 subscribers annually (and that's before we've even factored in the role of Wrestlemania), it's not necessarily in their interest to provide a gateway for a network that offers PPVs at 20% the current price (unless they can more than triple their current monthly domestic base of purchasers).  Wrestlemania throws an even bigger wrench into things because that's a high-price item and the split is very profitable for both WWE and the operators (since it's been averaging more than 630,000 domestic buys over the last five years).

Honestly, the only way I see the Premium Channel hitting a million subscribers annually would be to include Wrestlemania and offer incentives/bundling (i.e. free months) similar to what is done with other premium channels.  They could hit a 1,000,000 people, but it would be at a much lower ASP (average selling price) than full $10/month (or $15/month) retail.

Now, let's flip it around - what is the scenario that WWE hits a million people using only a streaming service?

Let's exclude the world in which WWE becomes an outgrowth of either Hulu or Netflix.  If that happened, it would be quite a game changer (for all involved) and the large base of established subscribers would put the million 'WWE Network' subscriber idea in the realm of possibility; however, I just don't see that situation being likely at this moment.

Instead, let's look at the scenario that appears to be playing out today - WWE Network launches as a streaming "channel" built on the back of MLB Advanced Technology streaming services and includes a large VOD library.  Right now the WWE App has been downloaded in excess of 7 million times (I believe last night's RAW mentioned 9 million,)  That's a free service, worldwide that they've pushed heavily for months on end.

Netflix has above 32 million domestic subscribers.  Hulu Plus has surpassed 4 million subscribers.  Compare with a mega-Premium channel like HBO which has over 30 million with Showtime at over 20 million.

Is it possible to envision a world where WWE can reach 1 million (a quarter of their RAW audience, a tenth of all people who have downloaded their app) subscribers for an online-only network?  Not in 2014. Especially when you consider that half of WWE fans are over the age of 40 and far less likely to be using the new technology required to access an online-only WWE Network on their television.

 However, in the long run, it still feels like the approach that is going to pay dividends in 3-5 years, especially since it seems far more likely to bring back more lapsed fans and more likely to entice younger fans to join the program.

-Chris Harrington (chris.harrington@gmail.com) 

twitter: @mookieghana

Can we predict WWE TV Rights Fees for 2015?

There's been plenty of talk from WWE about how they're expecting dramatic TV Rights Fees increases when they renegotiate key television deals set to go into effect at higher rates in 2015.
They're looking at USA (RAW), SyFy (Smackdown), UK (BSkyB), and India (Taj TV) which "represent more than two-thirds of our 2012 annual TV rights revenue".

WWE is banking on the Escalating Sports Rights Phenomenon and their large base on active, live viewers (which they feel proportional to TV Rights Fees is a steal).

The question is - how much can they realistically expect to get?

First, let's try to put TV Rights Fees into perspective. I've pulled the annual fees for the last eight years from their SEC filings and done some estimates on how many episodes of each of their major shows that they aired.



2006: $85.5M ($54.9M domestic + $30.6M int'l) in TV Rights + $7.4M in TV Advertising
* 52 episodes of RAW on USA (104 hours)
* 37 episodes of Smackdown on UPN (74 hours) + 15 episodes of Smackdown on CW (30 hours)
* 29 episodes of ECW on SciFi (29 hours)
* 53 episodes of Sunday Night Heat (shown int'l/wwe.com)
* 23 episodes of Velocity (shown int'l/wwe.com)
* 53 episodes of AM Raw on USA
* 2 episodes of SNME
* 1 episode of Tribute to the Troops

2007: $92.4M ($59.6M domestic + $32.8M int'l) in TV Rights + $5.9M in TV Advertising
* 53 episodes of RAW on USA (106 hours)
* 52 episodes of Smackdown on CW (104 hours)
* 52 episodes of ECW on SciFi (52 hours)
* 52 episodes of Sunday Night Heat (shown int'l/wwe.com)
* 52 episodes of AM Raw on USA
* 2 episodes of SNME
* 1 episode of Tribute to the Troops

2008: $100.7M ($63.5M domestic + $37.2M int'l) in TV Rights + $7.4M in TV Advertising
* 52 episodes of RAW on USA (104 hours)
* 39 episodes of Smackdown on CW (78 hours) + 13 episodes of Smackdown on MyNetworkTV (26 hours)
* 53 episodes of ECW on SciFi (53 hours)
* 22 episodes of Sunday Night Heat (shown int'l/wwe.com)
* 52 episodes of AM Raw on USA
* 1 episode of SNME
* 1 episode of Tribute to the Troops

2009: $111.9M ($72.8M domestic + $39.1M int'l) in TV Rights + $7.7M in TV Advertising
* 52 episodes of RAW on USA (104 hours)
* 52 episodes of Smackdown on MyNetworkTV (104 hours)
* 38 episodes of WWE Superstars on WGN America (38 hours)
* 52 episodes of ECW on SciFi/SyFy (33 hours)
* 52 episodes of AM Raw on USA
* 1 episode of Tribute to the Troops

2010: $127.0M ($81.6M domestic + $45.4M int'l) in TV Rights + $5.9M in TV Advertising
* 52 episodes of RAW on USA (107 hours)
* 39 episodes of Smackdown on MyNetworkTV (78 hours) + 14 episodes of Smackdown on SyFy (28 hours)
* 52 episodes of WWE Superstars on WGN America (52 hours)
* 7 episodes of ECW on SyFy (7 hours)
* 32 episodes of NXT on SyFy (32 hours)
* 13 episodes of NXT (shown int'l/wwe.com)
* 52 episode of AM Raw on USA
* 1 episode of Tribute to the Troops (2 hours USA, 1 hour NBC)

2011: $131.5M ($80.3M domestic + $51.2M int'l) in TV Rights + $1.1M in TV Advertising
* 52 episodes of RAW on USA (108 hours)
* 52 episodes of Smackdown on SyFy (104 hours)
* 14 episodes of WWE Superstars on WGN America (14 hours)
* 38 episodes of WWE Superstars (shown int'l/wwe.com)
* 52 episodes of NXT (shown int'l/wwe.com)
* 52 episodes of AM Raw on USA
* 1 episode of Tribute to the Troops (2 hours USA, 1 hour NBC)

2012: $139.5M ($88.9M domestic + $50.6M int'l) in TV Rights + $1.4M in TV Advertising
* 53 episodes of RAW on USA (131 hours), era of 3-hour RAWs weekly begins with Raw 1000
* 52 episodes of Smackdown on SyFy (104 hours)
* 13 episodes of Main Event on Ion (13 hours)
* 19 episodes of Saturday Morning Slam on CW (9.5 hours)
* 52 episodes of WWE Superstars (shown int'l/wwe.com/hulu)
* 24 episodes of NXT (shown int'l/wwe.com)
* 14 episodes of NXT (Developmental Territory, Hulu, int'l?)
* 53 episodes of AM Raw on USA
* 1 episode of Tribute to the troops (2 hours USA, 1 hour NBC)

2013 YTD (9 months): $119.6M ($78.5M domestic + $41.1M int'l) + $1.4M in TV Advertising (3 quarters)
2013 (estimated Q4): $168.4M ($106.1M domestic + $62.3M int'l) + $1.8M in TV Advertising (estimating Q4 2013)
* 52 episodes of RAW on USA (156 hours), full year of 3-hour RAWs weekly
* 52 episodes of Smackdown on SyFy (104 hours)
* 15 episodes of Total Divas on E! (15 hours, 14 episodes + special)
* 52 episodes of Main Event on Ion (52 hours)
* 19 episodes of Saturday Morning Slam on CW (9.5 hours)
* 52 episodes of WWE Superstars (shown int'l/wwe.com/hulu)
* 52 episodes of NXT (Developmental Territory, Hulu, int'l?)
* 52 episodes of AM Raw on USA
* 1 episode of Tribute to the Troops on NBC

As you can see, from 2006-2012 TV Rights were going up by about $8.5M/yr but they jumped dramatically (more than $28M) this past year.

So, what can account for the extra money? What changed year-over-year?

1. Full year of Raw at 3-hours (about 25 more three-hour episodes YOY).
2. Total Divas! began airing on E! (will have 14 episodes + 1 special by end of the year).
3. Full year of Main Event (about 39 more episodes).

I've been trying to work through the rates for the shows, especially for the latest 2011-2013 run.

I'm thinking what NBCU pays domestically for RAW+Smackdown went from about $84 million in 2012 to $93.5M in 2013 and that WWE is getting more than $600k/episode for Total Divas (probably above $9M domestically for the whole run).

So, if my math is any good (and I haven't checked my numbers against what Dave has written in the Observer, so I could be way off) and WWE is getting around $90M domestically today for Smackdown + RAW, how much do you think they could make on domestic TV Rights?

Predict WWE's Domestic TV Rights in 2015

$100M to $125M - no significant increase for RAW/Smackdown $125M to $175M - about 25% to 50% increase on RAW/Smackdown $175M to $250M - RAW/Smackdown doubles $250M to $300M - RAW/Smackdown triples $300M to $350M - RAW/Smackdown quadruples Above $350M

How do you tabulate all those stats?

Perhaps people are interested in my #wrestlenomics process.  Let's start with taking results and turning them into win-loss records by wrestler.

Here we do go.

Step One: Find a good datasource.

This can actually be the hardest step.  You want to find useful, concise, complete and accurate summary of wrestling results. Each of these adjectives is important:

* Useful - An alternative word might be "consistent". You want to split your data by key terms.  It's terribly helpful if the transcriber uses the same set of words to describe match results and if you only have one match per line.
* Concise - it's FAR easier to compile your starting point if an entire year's worth of results are available on a single webpage. However, it's far too common to locate results which have been split into separate webpages; you often spend as much time opening and copying individual pages as you'll spend on the actual analysis.
* Complete - For instance, if you're working on annual results, make sure your dataset includes both television tapings and house shows.
* Accurate - You want to trust the source of the data.

For this tutorial, I'll start with one of my favorite websites: TheHistoryofWWE.com

Step Two: Transfer Data into your Spreadsheet

Data Source: Let's work on WWF 1991 from the The History of WWE for our example.
Spreadsheet Software: I am quite partial to Microsoft Excel so I'll be using MS Excel 2010 in this example, but you can use earlier (or newer) versions of Excel or other free applications like Google Docs.

a. "Select All" on the webpage
b.  Paste Special (right-click) and choose as "Text" in your spreadsheet (I usually start in cell B2).

Getting rid of any unusual formatting (bold text, images, merged cells) is key. You really want to start with a clean dataset.

Step Three: Label your Columns and number your lines

It's important that you can preserve the initial state of your data so you can always get the information in the same order as you started.

I started with all my text in cell B2 leaving Column A completely blank.

I label my columns:
A1 = linenum (this will be a unique number used to identify the data)
B1 = linetxt (this is the text from the webpage)
C1 = type (i.e. is it a wrestling match or a date or random note?)

 I label my first line of text with a number (typically in the form of YYYY0001 so in this case the first line is 19910001).
Label cell A2 as a number "19910001"

For the rest of column A, I use an equation to auto-number each line: A3 = A2+1
I carry the formula down to the end of the dataset.
There's several ways you can do that.
Method1: What I usually do is copy cell A3 (highlight cell A3, hit control+C), go the bottom of the sheet (control+End), moving over to column A, highlighting back to cell A3 (control+shift+up) and pasting the formula (control+V).
Method2: Grab the corner of the cell (your cursor will change from a large "open" plus-sign to a tiny plus-sign) and "drag" the formula down until you reach the bottom of the data.

Since may reorder data later in the process, let's freeze the data.
Copy column A and paste special values on Column A.  (highlight column A, control+C, move to cell A1, right-click Paste Special->Values).

It's also good form to freeze the top row so you can see your labels across the spreadsheet.
Menu: View => Freeze Panes => Freeze Top Row

Step Four: Label some obvious Data

The goal at the end of this exercise is to have every row of data labelled in column C.

These are the codes that I use:

• blank = no data on this line
• event = location & date of Wrestling Show (possibly attendance too)
• match = wrestling match
• other = battle royal or other contest (Divas Dance Contest, for instance)
• taping = indicating beginning of a television or PPV taping
• included = information on other stars who appeared on the card without match details
• notes = other information that is not a wrestling match (for instance, who "no showed" due to injury)

 Add Filters to the top row. (Data => Filter)

Let's label the blank rows first.  Click on large grey down arrow in cell B1 for the filter and choose "Text Filters => Equals".

We'll start with the blank lines.  Press OK.

I label the top cell "blank" and copy it to the bottom.
(Type "blank" into cell C2, control+C, control+shift+end, hold down shift and press left until you only have column C highlighted, control+V).

The quickest way to reset things is to click on the Filter icon twice (turning it off and back on again).

Next thing to label is some obvious "notes". Notes on The History of WWE begin with a dash (-).

Next thing to label is some of the events "event". Some events on The History of WWE contain a @.

Label all of these as "event".

Step Five: Search for the Match buzzwords

There's several ways that matches are described:

• Jimmy Snuka defeated Black Bart
• Saba Simba pinned Buddy Rose
• Davey Boy Smith fought the Warlord to a double count-out
• Kerry Von Erich vs. Ted Dibiase

The keywords are: "defeated", "pinned", "fought" and "vs."
We're going to search for those four words.

D1 = "min"
E1 = " defeated " (leading space)
F1 = " pinned " (leading space)
G1 = " fought " (leading space)
H1 = " vs. " (leading space)
D2 = "=min(E2:H2)"  (find the minimum number in cells E2 through cells H2)

Copy formula in cell D2 all the way to the bottom of the sheet.




Next let's add the formula looking for the keyword in the linetxt.

E2: =IFERROR(FIND(E$1,$B2),"")

Copy this to cell F2, G2 and H2.  Then copy cells E2 through H2 to the bottom row.

Next, let's assign "match" if minimum (column D) fall between 1-124. Filter on column D.

Label any filtered rows as column C as "match".


Filter on Column B for matches that begin with "Included" or "Also included".

 Label any filtered rows as column C as "included".

Filter on Column B for matches that end with a ":" and label them as "taping"

Filter on Column B for matches that contain a " won " and label them as "other"

Filter on Column C for lines that have not yet been labelled.
There are about 45 (out of 5131 records) left.  Manually assign the remaining labels.

Most remaining lines are labelled "notes" or "event".  There are occasional misspelled match terms or alternate terms used such as "WWF IC Champion Mr. Perfect battled Davey Boy Smith to a draw" or "Jesse Bolt defetaed the Brooklyn Brawler".  Usually, it's easiest to manually edit these lines (switching "battled" to "fought" and fixing the spelling for "defeated").

Step Six: Attach Event Labels to all Matches

We're going to label column I as "event".
I2: =IF(C2="blank","blank",IF(C2="event",B2,I1))

Copy the formula to the bottom of the data.

Step Seven: Isolate Matches

Filter on "type" (Column C) on "match".

Copy the match data.

Paste Values on the next Sheet.

Part I ended with us pasting values of the Matches on a separate sheet.

We'll pick up there.

Step Six: Isolate the Winners and Losers

First, let's freeze the top row.

View => Freeze Panes => Freeze Top Row

We can delete columns E/F/G/H (defeated/pinned/fought/vs.)

Let's label column F as "word".

Using our minimum word calculation in column D (min), let's find the word from the column B (llinetxt).

F2:  =MID(B2,D2,FIND(" ",B2,D2+1)-D2)

Copy the formula to the bottom of the data.

Label column G as "AA" and column H as "BB".

AA will represent the wrestlers on the first team (typically the winners) and BB will be for the other wrestlers.

G2: =IFERROR(TRIM(RIGHT(LEFT(B2,D2),LEN(LEFT(B2,D2))-FIND(":",LEFT(B2,D2)))),TRIM(LEFT(B2,D2)))
H2: =RIGHT(RIGHT(B2,LEN(B2)-D2),LEN(RIGHT(B2,LEN(B2)-D2))-FIND(" ",RIGHT(B2,LEN(B2)-D2)))

Column G (AA) is looking at the wrestlers are the left side of the word (but to the right of a colon, for things like "Prime Time Wrestling - 11/4/91:").
Column H (BB) is looking at the wrestlers to the right side of the word.

 Step Seven: Trim down the "Losing" Team

 New Column Labels
Column I = "BB_Trim"
Column J = "min"
Column K = " to "
Column L = " at "
Column M = " after "
Column N = " follow"
Column O = " by "
Column P = " via "
Column Q = " when "
Column R = " with "
Column S = "; "
Column T = " in "

The goal is to reduce the length of the second team (which currently has a lot of extraneous data to the actual person/team, i.e. "Jake Roberts via count-out" to "Jake Roberts").

I2: =TRIM(IF(J2>0,LEFT(H2,J2-1),H2))
J2: =MIN(K2:T2)
K2: =IFERROR(FIND(K$1,$H2),"")
L2: =IFERROR(FIND(L$1,$H2),"")
M2: =IFERROR(FIND(M$1,$H2),"")
N2: =IFERROR(FIND(N$1,$H2),"")
O2: =IFERROR(FIND(O$1,$H2),"")
P2: =IFERROR(FIND(P$1,$H2),"")
Q2: =IFERROR(FIND(Q$1,$H2),"")
R2: =IFERROR(FIND(R$1,$H2),"")
S2: =IFERROR(FIND(S$1,$H2),"")
T2: =IFERROR(FIND(T$1,$H2),"")

Copy these formulas to the bottom of the data.

 Step Eight: Separate the Teams and the Valets

 Copy all of the match data from Sheet2 onto Sheet3 and special paste values.

Go ahead and trim the columns - we're going to keep:

Column Labels
Column A = "linenum"
Column B = "linetxt"
Column C = "type"
Column D = "min"
Column E = "event"
Column F = "word"
Column G = "AA"
Column H = BB_trim"

Freeze top row (View => Freeze Panes => Freeze Top Row)

Column I = "team"
Column J = "team_num"

First, we want to copy all of Column G to Column I.

I2: =G2
J2: ="AA"

Copy this to the bottom.

Next we want to copy all of the data from row 2 to the bottom of the data and append it to the bottom of the dataset.  Starting at the first row of this duplicated row (if you lose track, search for the linenum that is in cell A2, the second location is where your data begins repeating)..

I3800: =H3800
J3800: ="BB"

Copy this down to the bottom of your data.

 You should now have a column I which has the names of all of the teams involved in matches and column J which indicates whether they are part of team AA (usually the winners) or team BB (usually the losers).

Next we want to strip off the valets and manager information which is in the paratheses.

New Columns
Column K = "("
Column L = ")"
Column M = "()"
Column N = "team_trim"

K2: =IFERROR(FIND(K$1,$I2),"")
L2: =IFERROR(FIND(L$1,$I2),"")
M2: =IFERROR(MID(I2,K2,L2-K2+1),"")
N2: =TRIM(SUBSTITUTE(I2,M2,""))

I would sort my sheet on column M using the "Sort Z to A" button on Data menu.

The top examples will move to the top.

What we want to do is both preserve the ()_text as well as remove it from the "team" line.

Here's the process:
I add one more column O which is labelled "()_text"
I copy and paste values from column M into column O.
Then I copy and paste values from column N into column I.
Then it's another "Sort Z to A" on Column M.

If you're lucky, there's only a few lines of data that have more than one set of text in paratheses.

For us, it's only about nine lines.

Find the best way to append the useful data to column O.

Usually, I use a quick dummy column P (labelled temp).  
P2: =O2&" "&M2
Carry down to the bottom of the ()_text.
Copy the data from column O and paste values on top of column O.
Delete Column P.
Copy the data from column N and paste values to column I.

Remove columns K/L/M/N.

 Step Nine: Separate Teams into Wrestlers

If things have gone well, columns should be:
Column A: linenum
Column B: linetxt
Column C: type
Column D: min
Column E: event
Column F: word
Column G: AA
Column H: BB_trim
Column I: team
Column J: team_num
Column K: ()_text

All of these columns should be values only - no formulas.

The next goal is to separate these teams into individual wrestlers.

New Columns
Column L: person
Column M: " & "
Column N: person1
Column O: person2

L2: =SUBSTITUTE(SUBSTITUTE(TRIM(SUBSTITUTE(SUBSTITUTE(SUBSTITUTE(I2," and "," & "),","," & "),"  "," ")),".","")," & & "," & ")M2: =IFERROR(FIND($M$1,L2),"")N2: =IF(M2<>"",TRIM(LEFT(L2,M2-1)),"")
O2: =IF(M2<>"",TRIM(RIGHT(L2,LEN(L2)-M2)),"")

Column L is converting column I (team) in three ways: converting "and", "/" and "," to "&" and removing periods. Then we're splitting into two groups - a single person (column N) and the remaining people (column O).

Next, we're going to have an iterative process to finish deconstructing the teams.  Here are the steps involved:

1. Sort A-Z on column M ( & )
2. Turn on the Filter
3. Filter on Column M for empty columns (Text Filters "equals" blank)
4. Delete data from first blank cell in columns M/N/O to the bottom of data

 
5. Turn off the Filter
6. Copy columns O and P and Paste Values on Columns P/Q

7. Copy the non-empty Columns from P to column L
8. Append a copy of the non-empty rows of the data to the bottom of the dataset
9. Starting with the new data appended on the bottom, paste non-empty data from Column Q back on Column L
10. Delete Columns P and Columns Q

Your goal is to rinse, lather and repeat these ten steps until you no longer have any entries in column L with a "&" in them.

Once you're down with that, delete Columns M/N/O (which should be blank).

Step Ten: Cleaning up the Corners

At this point now there's two major steps left: (a) change names into final form, (b) assign wins/losses.

(a) Final Names

Column M: "final person"

This is a process.  First you want to remove the "Champion" titles.

M2: =TRIM(IFERROR(RIGHT(RIGHT(L2,LEN(L2)-FIND(" Champion",L2)),LEN(RIGHT(L2,LEN(L2)-FIND(" Champion",L2)))-FIND(" ",RIGHT(L2,LEN(L2)-FIND(" Champion",L2)))),L2))

Then I usually do a PivotTable to start analyzing how many misspelling or multiple identities or tag teams will we need to decipher.

(b) Wins & Losses

word	AA	BB
defeated	win	loss
pinned	win	loss
fought	draw	draw
vs.	unknown	unknown

Column N: "result"

N2: =IF(F2=" vs. ","unknown",IF(F2=" fought ","draw",IF(J2="AA","win","loss")))

At this point, you should have a moderately usable dataset.  You still need to remove some "false positives" (lines of data that aren't actually matches) or lines of data from events that weren't in your original federation (filter on column E event). 

Let's play the predict WWE Network Revenue Game~!

Let's play the predict WWE Network Revenue Game~!
by Chris Harrington (@mookieghana)

With the possible launch of an online-only WWE Network, a host of new variables are being introduced when it comes to calculating how the WWE Network could affect WWE's Revenue Streams and what exactly would it take in terms of subscriptions in order to be a profitable endeavor?

Step One: Review Current WWE Revenue Streams - will they be affected by WWE Network?

Live & TV Entertainment Division was $376.7M for last 12 months.

• Live Events: $109.4M = assume no impact
• Venue Merchandise: $19.8M = assume no impact
• PPV: $79.8M = assume HEAVY impact
• TV Rights Fees: $160.2M = will be going up but assume no impact from WWE Network
• TV Advertising: $2.1M = will probably be going up slightly but assume no impact from WWE Network
• Other (includes Classics on Demand): $5.4M = assume HEAVY Impact

At risk: Significant portion of $85M in PPV/WWE Classics on Demand

Consumer Products Division was $82.7M for last 12 months

• Licensing (includes WWE Music): $44.8M = assume no impact
• Home Entertainment: $28.9M = assume SUBSTANTIAL impact from WWE Network
• Magazine Publishing: $6.1M = assume no impact (though this segment is already in decline)
• Other (includes appearances): $2.9M = assume no impact

At risk: Substantial portion of $29M in Home Entertainment

Digital Media Division was $38.9M for last 12 months

• WWE.com: $23.5M = assume SOME impact from WWE Network
• WWEShop: $15.4M = assume MINOR impact from WWE Network

At risk: Some portion of $39M in Digital Media

WWE Studios Division was $6.4M for last 12 months

• WWE Studios: $6.4M = assume SOME impact

At risk: Some portion of $7M in WWE Studios

Total Revenue with some Risk Associated : $160M

Commentary: The largest risk is in the immediate redundancies PPV and Classics on Demand (COD). (We already know that COD is going away so that's -$5.5M assured off the bat.) Home Entertainment (specifically DVD/BluRay) is likely to take a hit because an extensive on-demand back library would naturally compete with selling discs to consumers with the same content. Similarly, I'd expect some impact to be felt in the WWEShop realm, though not nearly as severly.  Whether or not the WWE Network will have any advertising (you'd think a subscription service would preclude this, but we've seen other online streaming services like Hulu retain ads.) there is going to be some natural competition with the video collections that are currently housed online.  In theory, it revenue may just pass from the right hand (WWE.com) to the left hand (WWE Network), but there's bound to be some disruption. The fate of WWE Studios is a complete crapshoot. While the two ventures may not be directly linked, it's quite unclear how the boondoggle of WWE Studios will fare - will they leverage WWE Network to run their new content? Will they abandon the film division as a burdensome distraction?  Only time will tell. 

Step Two: Rank & Dissect the Risk Profiles

LARGEST ($ risk)
Domestic non-WM PPV*: $47.8M x 50% change = -$23.9M
Domestic WM PPV*: $26.1M x 40% change = -$10.4M
Int'l non-WM PPV*: $6.7M x 15% change = -$1.0M
Int'l WM PPV*: $3.6M x 20% change = -$0.72M
Home Entertainment: $28.9M x 33% change = -$9.5M
WWE.com = $23.5M x 10% change = -$2.35M
WWE Classics on Demand = $5.4M x 100% change = -$5.4M
WWEShop = $15.4M x assume 10% change = -$1.54M
WWE Studios = $6.4M (unclear how it will be impacted)

Potential Loss: $54.8M

* (Obtaining the splits for domestic/int'l PPVs was a complicated process which involved taking the 2006-2013 PPV Buy #s and cross-referencing with WWE's International/Domestic PPV splits 2006-2011 to produce an extrapolation that was applied to 2012 and 2013.  Nov 2012-October 2013 PPVs were used in the above number.)

I made up all of the risk adjustments above.  Those percentages were plucked from thin air.

Step Three: Estimate Revenue Generation from WWE Network

I'm going to go with a starting price of $10/month and look at things from a 12-month view.  I will assume that WWE will retain 83% of that price.  It could be much higher (or lower), but that's a number I'm comfortable with guessing at.

Annual Revenue per Subscriber: $100.

Number of Annual Subscribers required to offset current Potential Loss: 548,000.

This DOES NOT include the $30 to $45 million that George Barrios mentioned going into setting up the network.  Under my estimate, that would be another 300,000 to 450,000 subscribers.

So, all together the break-even point would probably be around a million subscribers.

Conveniently, that's exactly the number that WWE threw out there:

...Until a base of approximately 1 million subscribers is achieved, we estimate the network would represent a net investment for WWE.

Step Four: Find the Flaws

#1: Penny Profit
I haven't spent a lot of time thinking about costs and the profit percentage of WWE Network Dollars versus Home Entertainment Dollars versus PPV Dollars so there could be a flaw in my reasoning.  I just wanted to play out this little thought exercise to the end.

#2: Those Percentages
Also, can we really assume that WWE would get A MILLION subscribers to their service but only lose 50% of their domestic subscribers?  I don't think so.

#3: Full Year Subscriptions
The service was rumored to be launched as a six-month bundle (including Wrestlemania) to get things off to a hot start. However, will everyone stick with the service when they're going to be getting the equivalent of Battleground and Survivor Series 2014?  What about 2015 when Wrestlemania may not be included - how would people handle the shock of going back to a $60+ event after paying only a fraction of that previously?

#4: The Great Unknown
How will UFC react (when they're trying to launch a digital network)? How will the Cable companies react (when they are negotiating with WWE about Raw & Smackdown contracts and stand to lose at least $34 million in revenue from PPV dropping)? How will consumer react (if the stream is a hit or a failure)?  We just don't know.

CONCLUSION
The "too long, didn't read" version of this story is.... "$160M in WWE Revenue in some way could be affected and I think almost a third of could disappear. It would take about 500k-600k subscribers to cover that and another 400k subscribers to cover the startup costs. That's about a million subscribers for a break-even point which coincidentally was exactly WWE's prediction."

WWE to redefine "Network" - speculation abounds!

WWE to redefine "Network" - speculation abounds!

Article by Chris Harrington
Twitter: @mookieghana
Email: chris.harrington@gmail.com

WHERE WE ARE




This week, a tantalizing notice materialized suggesting that WWE will be making a major announcement on January 8, 2014 in Las Vegas. That coincides with the International CES 2014 (Consumer Electronics Show). Most are speculating that Vince McMahon will finally be making a blockbuster announcement regarding the launch of the WWE Network.

Compared to other observers, I've been quite bullish on the promise, possibility and potential of a full blown WWE Network (as evidenced by last month's piece "Can the WWE Network Succeed?", the slightly updated version that appeared in the subscription-required Nov 22 Figure Four Weekly and my comments during the two-hour WWE Network Roundtable on Good Will Wrestling).

Still, I believe that the linchpin for a successful WWE Network is offering new content that is monumentally important to WWE Fans. The best suggestion so far has been the idea that the WWE Network airs live PPVs at a much lower cost to the customer. While this model does endanger their already crumbling domestic PPV infrastructure, it prepares the WWE for the next era which is built on a bedrock of new TV Rights Fees (starting in 2015).

This quarter has been filled with WWE Network speculation fueled by credible statements from the WWE:

First was Stephanie McMahon's statement at NYC Television Week that they were "targeting first quarter next year."

Next came the Q3 Conference Call which included many of the same talking points including using "traditional and non-traditional means of distribution" (Vince McMahon) for the WWE Network and the possibility of distribution via "traditional cable, satellite and telco partners’ or through over the top digital distribution." (CFO George Barrios)

A few weeks later Matthew Singerman was named the Executive Vice President of Programming with responsibility "for the strategic development of content, including original, unscripted and scripted shows, scheduling of all programming and operations across all distribution platforms, including a potential WWE Network."

That same week news broke from Cable Distributors that WWE was discontinuing the VOD (Video on Demand) service of WWE Classics on Demand on 1/31/14.

WWE issued a series of internal promotions including Chief Revenue and Marketing Officer Michelle Wilson (who is "spearheading the company’s efforts to launch a WWE Network") and Chief Strategy and Financial Officer George Barrios (who will "take over management of WWE’s day-to-day Television Operations" and "With Wilson, Barrios is co-leading WWE’s television rights negotiations")

Meanwhile, wrestling websites, analysts, observers, personalities and pundits have been feeding a steady stream of unconfirmed, but plausible details into the delicate WWE Network Rumor ecosystem:

PWInsider reported that the exact "first quarter next year" launch date for the WWE Network would be 2/24/2014 - the day following the Elimination Chamber PPV. 

Dave Meltzer wrote in the 11/25/2013 Wrestling Observer Newsletter (subscription required) of a myriad of details including offering Wrestlemania on the WWE Network this year and the possibility that the network would be offered through Netflix instead of traditional Cable/Satellite distributors. 

Former WWE Writer Court Bauer discussed on the MLW Bauer + Pollock Podcast that WWE was struggling to gain any clearances with Cable Networks and streaming sites such as Hulu were unlikely to carry the WWE Network due to recent upper management shake-ups.
Yesterday (12/5), Wrestlezone's Justin LaBarr posted a titillating series of claims about the WWE Network. Summarized by David Bixenspan the important parts were that WWE Network would be available "online only on all major connected devices, 24/7 stream plus an on demand library that includes every Raw, Smackdown, and PPV to date at launch." Also, the price would be "$10/month with a $60 up-front at launch for the first 6 months but that would include Wrestlemania 30 and all subsequent non-WM PPVs as part of the subscription." 

Subsequently, sources such as Dave Meltzer and Voices of Wrestling's own Rich Kraetsch reported that MLB Advanced Media would be handling the streaming technology required for online access.

Throughout these rumor mill, WWE has remained non-committal: “In addition to not being able to confirm timing of WWE Network launch, WWE is still considering all options for distribution, pricing and role of pay-per-view.”

WHAT IT MAY BE

The signs for the WWE Network launch seem to be pointing to three things:

1. WWE will be launching the Network during the first quarter of 2014. It makes the most sense to launch it during the Royal Rumble to Wrestlemania period when the WWE Viewership and Interst is the highest. The oft-repeated launch date of 2/24/2014 seems quite reasonable (more on that below).
   
2. WWE is likely already working with top companies in the area of streaming media so they'll be capable of providing a reliable WWE Network stream. This would be completely outside of using the traditional Cable/Satellite distributor Premium Channel realm.
   
3. In order to provide maximum incentive to lure fans to subscribe, WWE would include a major launch enticement such as including Wrestlemania as part of the Network this year.

Increasingly, we're not hearing about traction for traditional distribution over Cable or Satellite Networks for the WWE Network (either as a regular channel or a premium channel).

John Williams has made an excellent case for how WWE missed an opportunity to launch WWE Network as a regular channel replacing G4 when Comcast was looking to sell it. (Even UFC was considering buying the channel back in 2011 prior to their blockbuster Fox deal) As a premium channel, there's been little buzz from distributors and no leaked reports of potential coverage. That's telling. Presumably, the lure of taking a monthly split off the $10-$15 WWE Network subscription price versus the monthly split off the $45-$55 PPV price was not exciting cable or satellite partners.

An online-only WWE Network is certainly a mixed bag. From a forward-looking and long-term perspective, I believe it's ultimately the right move. You're looking at the trends of a cord-cutting younger generation geared towards obtaining content online, a massive Netflix subscription boom (30 million subscribers, with over "31% of downstream bandwidth in North America is for Netflix alone") and phenomenon of people canceling Cable in the Great Recession as Cable bills skyrocket. Conversely, it's the Networks (primarily NBCU) which are fueling the WWE through TV Right Fees (currently over $160M/year and possibly poised to double with the latest negotiations). While Networks haven't been showing WWE much love when it comes to carrying the WWE Network, they can't be giddy about the notion WWE might be cutting them out of the picture.

Coverage through streaming players (such as a ChromeCast, Apple TV, Roku box) and major gaming consoles (PS3/PS4, XBox360, XBox One, WiiU) will allow WWE fans to watch the WWE Network on their television sets and not just on their tablet and computer screens. Furthermore, WWE has invested heavily in promoting their free WWE App (5 million downloads) and a well-executed subscription streaming service would be an excellent tie-in for mobile devices and tablets that have already shown their interest in WWE content. (It is worth noting that WWE is already offering streaming PPV through XBox and Playstation but though the number of actual buys for PPVs through them was quite low - 17,300.)

Launching the WWE Network on 2/24/2014 (the day after Elimination Chamber in Minneapolis) has some auspicious timing. Typically, WWE releases their annual report and holds their 4th Quarter/Year-End Conference Call either the last week of February or the first week of March. The buzz from a successful (and they will be cagey on defining success up front) WWE Network launch would likely be a boon to their attempts to continue to impress investors. Plus, they won't have to actually answer the difficult question about the impact of selling a subsidized $10 HD stream of Wrestlemania while also asking for $60+ for the same product on traditional PPV. WWE also leads with their biggest event (rather than a weaker PPV like Elimination Chamber or their #2 or #3 best performer with Royal Rumble).

From a pricing standpoint, using a bundled 6-month price up-front (with Wrestlemania) has an intriguing strategy that it will prevent WWE customers from early cancellation (after just the one mega-event) and shield WWE should they have some early streaming iPPV problems (which have notably plagued wrestling companies all over the world - especially ROH, but also the juggernaut WWE.) Presumably, the split on a $9.95 price (keeping prices below $10 seems important in the online world as both Netflix and Hulu hover around $8) and being distributed online is far more favorable than what they'd see with Cable/Satellite distributors. I'd wager they'll get to keep at least 80% of an online subscription (depending on card fees and their deal with the streaming providers) while they'd be looking at more like 30-45% for a Premium Cable Channel.

It's difficult to know the impact on the domestic PPV business as PPVs will continue to be offered ala-cart via normal distribution methods (and normal PPV prices) throughout 2014. I believe that an online WWE Network model will have several hundred thousand subscribers at first (depending on whether this service expands from a purely North American Network to an International Network), but will not come close to the million subscriber number (that WWE touted as their requirement for a traditionally distributed WWE Network Break-even point). It's also likely that the WWE Domestic PPV base won't collapse as rapidly in 2014 with an online-only distribution model versus a premium channel. Last year, CFO George Barrios estimated WWE Network would spend between $30 and $45 million to get things running and it will probably take at least half a million subscribers annually to just off-set that cost alone. (And we're just talking WWE Network startup costs. Someone has to cover the $38M+ in annual costs to produce PPV events.)

Still, if WWE can keep things together until 2015, they have the promise of vast TV Rights riches from new Raw and Smackdown contracts to carry the business into the future.

Chris Harrington (@mookieghana) is working on his first book, #Wrestlenomics—a collection of pro-wrestling analytics and statistics. He can be reached at chris.harrington@gmail.com and regularly updates his wrestling statistics website indeedwrestling.com and his blog indeedwrestling.blogspot.com

WWE 2006-2015 PPV Numbers (and a lengthy discourse of PPV buy counting)

WWE 2006-2015 PPV Numbers
Analysis by Chris Harrington (@mookieghana on twitter)

Introduction
When you're pulling together Wrestling Statistics, your worst enemy is the sourceless "fact". 
It appears on the internet (or that archived Usenet post) and makes a bold claim without rhyme or reason. Who was under that mask? How many buys did that PPV do? How much did that territory sell for? What's the best strategy for mapping the icosahedron when I'm hunting a Wumpus? It can be maddening.

So, when possible, I do try to cite my sources.
In this case, I decided to go with number of Worldwide and North American Pay-Per-View Buy numbers as published by Dave Meltzer in his Wrestling Observer Newsletter.  All of these issues are online, so if you have a subscription, I do encourage you to check my transcription skills.

There's other places you can find PPV buy numbers. I highly recommend Jason Campbell's Regularly Updated Spreadsheet at Pro Wrestling History (it's usually populated with information noted in Dave's newsletter). If you're more interested in a direct source, the WWE offers a nice chart each month as part of their Key Performance Indicators (KPI) on their Corporate Website.  And since WWE became a publicly traded company on the NYSE on October 19, 1999, WWE has publishes their Quarterly Reports (8-K) and Annual Reports (10-K) with the SEC.

In the beginning, WWF was quite opaque about the specific number of buys for most PPV events. (Wrestlemania was the one exception since it was an industry gem and chance to brag.)  A quarterly report might cryptically note, "We exceeded the number of buys for each event that occurred in the same period as last year except one." However, over time, responding to complaints from Investors and Analysts, WWE began clearly reporting worldwide numbers for each PPV held in that quarter.

WWE always has two majors caveats whenever they're discussing PPVs:
1) "This initial estimate is based on preliminary buy information received from our pay-per-view distributors."
2) "Final reconciliation of the pay-per-view buys generally occurs within one year and any subsequent adjustments to the buys are recognized in the period new information is received."

Essentially, the number of buys reported for a PPV isn't necessary that final number of buys for a PPV. It can be a maddening process, and one that causes a lot of confusion.  Additionally, not all of the information is reported in a single place at the same time.  Domestic/Worldwide PPV splits used to appear in the quarterly and annual reports.  Now, they're usually only available through the unaudited monthly KPIs releases (which, in turn, are not handily archived and accessible in the same fashion as all of the SEC filings). Another good pair of resources are the Trending Schedules available on the Corporate Website and the 10-Q SEC Filings.

Each quarter WWE reports their latest estimate for PPV buys for that quarter along with the "Prior Period Buys" which essentially are the adjusting the PPVs that occurred outside of the current period. Usually, the assumption is that most of these "Prior Period Buys" are connected to the previous period's PPVs (try saying that three times fast!) though in some cases - Wrestlemania, for instance - we can see adjustments to the final number many months later.  Those adjustments can be both positive or negative.

Sometimes those adjustments are applied to the chart that is part of the monthly KPIs. Sometimes WWE will specifically quote figures around PPVs - particularly Wrestlemania buys, in a press release. Or sometimes as part of news articles  (in periodicals such as Advertising Age, SportsBusinss Journal, Forbes, Fortune, Hollywood Variety) they'll quote specific buy numbers.  When Linda McMahon was running for Congress, the WWE was especially open with offering PPV buy numbers when journalists inquired.  However, in the end, it can be quite piecemeal.

Your initial PPV buy estimates are typically pretty good, but they are cases where certain PPVs have enormous swings. As WWE notes, their "initial estimate" is based on "preliminary buy information".
When the business of purchasing a PPV was a lot more complicated and reconciliation between Cable Franchises and PPV Distributors was more cumbersome, it was understandable why there was such a large delay for WWF to available how successful their PPV was.  Many of the best indications appeared in the industry press (Broadcasting & Cable or Multichannel News) where large regional cable franchisees would report the buyrate for their system for a major wrestling PPV.  When WWF wasn't a public company, these Cable Franchise reports quoted in industry periodicals would often serve as the best source of information - particularly in the early 1990s.

This brings up the important distinction between buys and buyrates.  For decades, Cable (and Satellite) were growing businesses that expanded the overall number of PPV-capable homes year after year. Franchises would report the percentage of their capable homes which purchased an event (the buyrate). The number of buys was "eligible subscribers x buyrate".  Since the "universe" was growing year after year, the focus was on the buyrate - not just the pure number of buys.  However, as the "universe" hit a plateau and even began decreasing (Netflix/cord cutter generation + great recession cutbacks + escalating cable prices), along with the mid-2000s age of digital cable systems (which greatly reduced cable "black box" piracy), the accounting has moved over purely to buys.

(If you're curious about specific number of PPV-capable homes by year, I suggest you look at "Stay Tuned: A History of American Broadcasting".  After an exhaustive search, I came across a useful table on page 871 Appendix C which has exactly that.)

In this modern age, it does not make as much sense to talk about buyrates - only buys. The Cable/Satellite PPV eligible Universe is pretty stable. And there are alternative methods of distribution (which are growing) such as through Next-Gen Video Game Consoles (PS3 and XBOX-360 machines), Web Streaming (through WWE.com and through WWE's App).

So, what's the best way to track all of this information which is being published in pieces at various times throughout the entire year and covering often disparate time-frames and events?  A weekly newsletter isn't a bad start.  So, that's why I'm using Dave Meltzer's number - particularly for 2006-2013 period.  I've also double-checked these against SEC Filings and KPI releases and generally, they're the same numbers.  If anything the differences come down to how you apply a domestic/worldwide PPV split and how you attribute prior period buys.

EVENT	DATE	PRICE	Worldwide  Buys	NA Buys	Source
New Year's Revolution 2006	1/8/2006	34.95	345	214	4/6/09 WO
Royal Rumble 2006	1/29/2006	34.95	585	357	4/6/09 WO
No Way Out 2006	2/19/2006	34.95	218	133	4/6/09 WO
WrestleMania 22	4/2/2006	49.95	975	636	4/6/09 WO
Backlash 2006	4/30/2006	34.95	230	143	4/6/09 WO
Judgment Day 2006	5/21/2006	34.95	252	154	4/6/09 WO
One Night Stand 2006	6/11/2006	39.95	304	185	4/6/09 WO
Vengeance 2006	6/25/2006	39.95	429	270	4/6/09 WO
Great American Bash 2006	7/23/2006	39.95	232	141	4/6/09 WO
SummerSlam 2006	8/20/2006	39.95	541	330	4/6/09 WO
Unforgiven 2006	9/17/2006	39.95	307	187	4/6/09 WO
No Mercy 2006	10/8/2006	39.95	197	114	4/6/09 WO
Cyber Sunday 2006	11/5/2006	39.95	228	139	4/6/09 WO
Survivor Series 2006	11/26/2006	39.95	383	234	4/6/09 WO
December to Dismember	12/3/2006	39.95	90	52	4/6/09 WO
Armageddon 2006	12/17/2006	39.95	239	139	4/6/09 WO
New Year's Revolution 2007	1/7/2007	39.95	225	149	4/6/09 WO
Royal Rumble 2007	1/28/2007	39.95	525	347	4/6/09 WO
No Way Out 2007	2/18/2007	39.95	205	135	4/6/09 WO
WrestleMania 23	4/1/2007	54.95	1250	825	4/6/09 WO
Backlash 2007	4/29/2007	39.95	210	139	4/6/09 WO
Judgment Day 2007	5/20/2007	39.95	240	158	4/6/09 WO
One Night Stand 2007	6/3/2007	39.95	188	124	4/6/09 WO
Vengeance 2007	6/24/2007	39.95	255	168	4/6/09 WO
Great American Bash 2007	7/22/2007	39.95	250	165	4/6/09 WO
SummerSlam 2007	8/26/2007	39.95	545	360	4/6/09 WO
Unforgiven 2007	9/16/2007	39.95	220	134	4/6/09 WO
No Mercy 2007	10/7/2007	39.95	271	171	4/6/09 WO
Cyber Sunday 2007	10/28/2007	39.95	194	122	4/6/09 WO
Survivor Series 2007	11/18/2007	39.95	341	215	4/6/09 WO
Armageddon 2007	12/16/2007	39.95	237	149	4/6/09 WO
Royal Rumble 2008	1/27/2008	39.95	575	403	2/23/11 WO
No Way Out 2008	2/17/2008	39.95	365	256	2/23/11 WO
WrestleMania XXIV	3/30/2008	49.95	1041	697	2/23/11 WO
Backlash 2008	4/27/2008	39.95	210	141	2/23/11 WO
Judgment Day 2008	5/18/2008	39.95	252	169	2/23/11 WO
One Night Stand 2008	6/1/2008	39.95	200	134	2/23/11 WO
Night of Champions 2008	6/29/2008	39.95	286	191	2/23/11 WO
Great American Bash 2008	7/20/2008	39.95	196	135	2/23/11 WO
SummerSlam 2008	8/17/2008	39.95	477	329	2/23/11 WO
Unforgiven 2008	9/7/2008	39.95	211	146	2/23/11 WO
No Mercy 2008	10/5/2008	39.95	261	157	2/23/11 WO
Cyber Sunday 2008	10/26/2008	39.95	153	92	2/23/11 WO
Survivor Series 2008	11/23/2008	39.95	319	191	2/23/11 WO
Armageddon 2008	12/14/2008	39.95	193	116	2/23/11 WO
Royal Rumble 2009	1/25/2009	39.95	450	288	3/5/12 WO
No Way Out 2009	2/15/2009	39.95	272	174	3/5/12 WO
WrestleMania XXV	4/5/2009	54.95	975	605	3/5/12 WO
Backlash 2009	4/26/2009	39.95	182	116	3/5/12 WO
Judgment Day 2009	5/17/2009	39.95	238	146	3/5/12 WO
Extreme Rules 2009	6/7/2009	39.95	213	136	3/5/12 WO
The Bash 2009	6/28/2009	39.95	178	114	2/23/11 WO
Night of Champions 2009	7/26/2009	39.95	267	166	3/5/12 WO
SummerSlam 2009	8/23/2009	39.95	369	229	3/5/12 WO
Breaking Point 2009	9/13/2009	39.95	169	105	3/5/12 WO
Hell in a Cell 2009	10/4/2009	39.95	283	164	3/5/12 WO
Bragging Rights 2009	10/25/2009	39.95	181	105	3/5/12 WO
Survivor Series 2009	11/22/2009	39.95	235	136	3/5/12 WO
TLC 2009	12/13/2009	39.95	228	132	3/5/12 WO
Royal Rumble 2010	1/31/2010	44.95	465	259	3/19/13 WO
Elimination Chamber 2010	2/21/2010	44.95	287	160	3/19/13 WO
WrestleMania XXVI	3/28/2010	54.95	885	495	3/19/13 WO
Extreme Rules 2010	4/25/2010	44.95	201	112	3/19/13 WO
Over the Limit 2010	5/23/2010	44.95	218	121	3/19/13 WO
Fatal Four Way 2010	6/20/2010	44.95	158	88	3/19/13 WO
Money in the Bank 2010	7/18/2010	44.95	164	98	3/19/13 WO
SummerSlam 2010	8/15/2010	44.95	349	209	3/19/13 WO
Night of Champions 2010	9/19/2010	44.95	165	99	3/19/13 WO
Hell in a Cell 2010	10/3/2010	44.95	210	109	3/19/13 WO
Bragging Rights 2010	10/24/2010	44.95	137	71	3/19/13 WO
Survivor Series 2010	11/21/2010	44.95	244	127	3/19/13 WO
TLC 2010	12/19/2010	44.95	195	101	3/19/13 WO
Royal Rumble 2011	1/30/2011	44.95	476	281	3/3/14 WO
Elimination Chamber 2011	2/20/2011	44.95	212	145	3/3/14 WO
WrestleMania XXVII	4/3/2011	54.95	1124	679	3/3/14 WO
Extreme Rules 2011	5/1/2011	44.95	216	108	3/3/14 WO
Over the Limit 2011	5/22/2011	44.95	145	72	3/3/14 WO
Capitol Punishment 2011	6/19/2011	44.95	176	85	3/3/14 WO
Money in the Bank 2011	7/17/2011	44.95	205	146	3/3/14 WO
SummerSlam 2011	8/14/2011	44.95	311	180	3/3/14 WO
Night of Champions 2011	9/18/2011	44.95	169	109	3/3/14 WO
Hell in a Cell 2011	10/2/2011	44.95	182	98	3/3/14 WO
Vengeance 2011	10/23/2011	44.95	121	65	3/3/14 WO
Survivor Series 2011	11/20/2011	44.95	312	179	3/3/14 WO
TLC 2011	12/18/2011	44.95	179	98	3/3/14 WO
Royal Rumble 2012	1/29/2012	44.95	483	299	8/11/14 WO
Elimination Chamber 2012	2/19/2012	44.95	194	138	8/11/14 WO
WrestleMania XXXVIII	4/1/2012	54.95	1219	715	8/11/14 WO
Extreme Rules 2012	4/29/2012	44.95	271	159	8/11/14 WO
Over the Limit 2012	5/20/2012	44.95	172	124	8/11/14 WO
No Way Out 2012	6/17/2012	44.95	200	110	8/11/14 WO
Money in the Bank 2012	7/15/2012	44.95	206	114	8/11/14 WO
SummerSlam 2012	8/19/2012	44.95	392	296	3/3/14 WO
Night of Champions 2012	9/16/2012	44.95	207	112	3/3/14 WO
Hell in a Cell 2012	10/28/2012	44.95	207	157	3/3/14 WO
Survivor Series 2012	11/18/2012	44.95	216	125	3/3/14 WO
TLC 2012	12/16/2012	44.95	181	75	3/3/14 WO
Royal Rumble 2013	1/27/2013	44.95	579	364	5/11/15 WO
Elimination Chamber 2013	2/17/2013	44.95	241	181	5/11/15 WO
WrestleMania 29	4/7/2013	59.95	1104	662	5/11/15 WO
Extreme Rules 2013	5/19/2013	44.95	245	137	2/23/15 WO
Payback 2013	6/16/2013	44.95	209	108	2/23/15 WO
Money in the Bank 2013	7/14/2013	44.95	223	169	2/23/15 WO
SummerSlam 2013	8/18/2013	44.95	332	207	2/23/15 WO
Night of Champions 2013	9/15/2013	44.95	196	103	2/23/15 WO
Battleground 2013	10/6/2013	44.95	119	84	2/23/15 WO
Hell in a Cell 2013	10/27/2013	44.95	232	135	2/23/15 WO
Survivor Series 2013	11/24/2013	44.95	184	98	2/23/15 WO
TLC 2013	12/15/2013	44.95	189	146	2/23/15 WO
Royal Rumble 2014	1/26/2014	44.95	517	337	5/11/15 WO
Elimination Chamber 2014	2/23/2014	44.95	203	159	5/11/15 WO
Wrestlemania 30	4/6/2014	59.95	684	420	5/11/15 WO
Extreme Rules 2014	5/4/2014	44.95	107	45	2/23/15 WO
Payback 2014	6/1/2014	44.95	66	29	2/23/15 WO
Money in the Bank 2014	6/29/2014	44.95	121	53	2/23/15 WO
Battleground 2014	7/20/2014	44.95	116	36	2/23/15 WO
SummerSlam 2014	8/17/2014	44.95	169	74	2/23/15 WO
Night of Champions 2014	9/21/2014	44.95	56	35	2/23/15 WO
Hell in a Cell 2014	10/26/2014	44.95	83	23	2/23/15 WO
Survivor Series 2014	11/23/2014	44.95	100	32	2/23/15 WO
TLC  2014	12/14/2014	44.95	39	17	2/23/15 WO
Royal Rumble 2015	1/25/2015	44.95	145	50	2/23/15 WO
Fastlane 2015	2/22/2015	44.95	46	26	2/23/15 WO
WrestleMania 31	3/29/2015	59.95	259	103	2/23/15 WO
Extreme Rules 2015	4/26/2015	44.95	56	31	8/10/15 WO
Payback 2015	5/17/2015	44.95	54	19	8/10/15 WO
Elimination Chamber 2015	5/31/2015	44.95	41	41	8/10/15 WO
Money in the Bank 2015	6/14/2015	44.95	57	20	8/10/15 WO
Battleground 2015	7/19/2015	44.95	80		10/29/15 8-K
SummerSlam 2015	8/23/2015	44.95	121		10/29/15 8-K
Night of Champions 2015	9/20/2015	44.95	77		10/29/15 8-K

Lastly, I'd note that the PPVs that are reported closest to the period end (or the month-end for KPIs) are the ones that tend to change the most over time.  Additionally, not every PPV is offered as a "PPV" on international systems. These events usually stick out because the ratio between domestic/worldwide sharply spikes (as you'll see with Battleground 2013 which was shown as a "free" event on SkyTV in the UK.)  Also, in the past there's been disputes with Satellite providers which artificially impacted the number of homes that could order the PPV.

-Chris Harrington

email: chris.harrington@gmail.com

twitter: @mookieghana