Let's play the predict WWE Network Revenue Game~!

Let's play the predict WWE Network Revenue Game~!
by Chris Harrington (@mookieghana)

With the possible launch of an online-only WWE Network, a host of new variables are being introduced when it comes to calculating how the WWE Network could affect WWE's Revenue Streams and what exactly would it take in terms of subscriptions in order to be a profitable endeavor?

Step One: Review Current WWE Revenue Streams - will they be affected by WWE Network?

Live & TV Entertainment Division was $376.7M for last 12 months.

• Live Events: $109.4M = assume no impact
• Venue Merchandise: $19.8M = assume no impact
• PPV: $79.8M = assume HEAVY impact
• TV Rights Fees: $160.2M = will be going up but assume no impact from WWE Network
• TV Advertising: $2.1M = will probably be going up slightly but assume no impact from WWE Network
• Other (includes Classics on Demand): $5.4M = assume HEAVY Impact

At risk: Significant portion of $85M in PPV/WWE Classics on Demand

Consumer Products Division was $82.7M for last 12 months

• Licensing (includes WWE Music): $44.8M = assume no impact
• Home Entertainment: $28.9M = assume SUBSTANTIAL impact from WWE Network
• Magazine Publishing: $6.1M = assume no impact (though this segment is already in decline)
• Other (includes appearances): $2.9M = assume no impact

At risk: Substantial portion of $29M in Home Entertainment

Digital Media Division was $38.9M for last 12 months

• WWE.com: $23.5M = assume SOME impact from WWE Network
• WWEShop: $15.4M = assume MINOR impact from WWE Network

At risk: Some portion of $39M in Digital Media

WWE Studios Division was $6.4M for last 12 months

• WWE Studios: $6.4M = assume SOME impact

At risk: Some portion of $7M in WWE Studios

Total Revenue with some Risk Associated : $160M

Commentary: The largest risk is in the immediate redundancies PPV and Classics on Demand (COD). (We already know that COD is going away so that's -$5.5M assured off the bat.) Home Entertainment (specifically DVD/BluRay) is likely to take a hit because an extensive on-demand back library would naturally compete with selling discs to consumers with the same content. Similarly, I'd expect some impact to be felt in the WWEShop realm, though not nearly as severly.  Whether or not the WWE Network will have any advertising (you'd think a subscription service would preclude this, but we've seen other online streaming services like Hulu retain ads.) there is going to be some natural competition with the video collections that are currently housed online.  In theory, it revenue may just pass from the right hand (WWE.com) to the left hand (WWE Network), but there's bound to be some disruption. The fate of WWE Studios is a complete crapshoot. While the two ventures may not be directly linked, it's quite unclear how the boondoggle of WWE Studios will fare - will they leverage WWE Network to run their new content? Will they abandon the film division as a burdensome distraction?  Only time will tell. 

Step Two: Rank & Dissect the Risk Profiles

LARGEST ($ risk)
Domestic non-WM PPV*: $47.8M x 50% change = -$23.9M
Domestic WM PPV*: $26.1M x 40% change = -$10.4M
Int'l non-WM PPV*: $6.7M x 15% change = -$1.0M
Int'l WM PPV*: $3.6M x 20% change = -$0.72M
Home Entertainment: $28.9M x 33% change = -$9.5M
WWE.com = $23.5M x 10% change = -$2.35M
WWE Classics on Demand = $5.4M x 100% change = -$5.4M
WWEShop = $15.4M x assume 10% change = -$1.54M
WWE Studios = $6.4M (unclear how it will be impacted)

Potential Loss: $54.8M

* (Obtaining the splits for domestic/int'l PPVs was a complicated process which involved taking the 2006-2013 PPV Buy #s and cross-referencing with WWE's International/Domestic PPV splits 2006-2011 to produce an extrapolation that was applied to 2012 and 2013.  Nov 2012-October 2013 PPVs were used in the above number.)

I made up all of the risk adjustments above.  Those percentages were plucked from thin air.

Step Three: Estimate Revenue Generation from WWE Network

I'm going to go with a starting price of $10/month and look at things from a 12-month view.  I will assume that WWE will retain 83% of that price.  It could be much higher (or lower), but that's a number I'm comfortable with guessing at.

Annual Revenue per Subscriber: $100.

Number of Annual Subscribers required to offset current Potential Loss: 548,000.

This DOES NOT include the $30 to $45 million that George Barrios mentioned going into setting up the network.  Under my estimate, that would be another 300,000 to 450,000 subscribers.

So, all together the break-even point would probably be around a million subscribers.

Conveniently, that's exactly the number that WWE threw out there:

...Until a base of approximately 1 million subscribers is achieved, we estimate the network would represent a net investment for WWE.

Step Four: Find the Flaws

#1: Penny Profit
I haven't spent a lot of time thinking about costs and the profit percentage of WWE Network Dollars versus Home Entertainment Dollars versus PPV Dollars so there could be a flaw in my reasoning.  I just wanted to play out this little thought exercise to the end.

#2: Those Percentages
Also, can we really assume that WWE would get A MILLION subscribers to their service but only lose 50% of their domestic subscribers?  I don't think so.

#3: Full Year Subscriptions
The service was rumored to be launched as a six-month bundle (including Wrestlemania) to get things off to a hot start. However, will everyone stick with the service when they're going to be getting the equivalent of Battleground and Survivor Series 2014?  What about 2015 when Wrestlemania may not be included - how would people handle the shock of going back to a $60+ event after paying only a fraction of that previously?

#4: The Great Unknown
How will UFC react (when they're trying to launch a digital network)? How will the Cable companies react (when they are negotiating with WWE about Raw & Smackdown contracts and stand to lose at least $34 million in revenue from PPV dropping)? How will consumer react (if the stream is a hit or a failure)?  We just don't know.

CONCLUSION
The "too long, didn't read" version of this story is.... "$160M in WWE Revenue in some way could be affected and I think almost a third of could disappear. It would take about 500k-600k subscribers to cover that and another 400k subscribers to cover the startup costs. That's about a million subscribers for a break-even point which coincidentally was exactly WWE's prediction."

WWE to redefine "Network" - speculation abounds!

WWE to redefine "Network" - speculation abounds!

Article by Chris Harrington
Twitter: @mookieghana
Email: chris.harrington@gmail.com

WHERE WE ARE




This week, a tantalizing notice materialized suggesting that WWE will be making a major announcement on January 8, 2014 in Las Vegas. That coincides with the International CES 2014 (Consumer Electronics Show). Most are speculating that Vince McMahon will finally be making a blockbuster announcement regarding the launch of the WWE Network.

Compared to other observers, I've been quite bullish on the promise, possibility and potential of a full blown WWE Network (as evidenced by last month's piece "Can the WWE Network Succeed?", the slightly updated version that appeared in the subscription-required Nov 22 Figure Four Weekly and my comments during the two-hour WWE Network Roundtable on Good Will Wrestling).

Still, I believe that the linchpin for a successful WWE Network is offering new content that is monumentally important to WWE Fans. The best suggestion so far has been the idea that the WWE Network airs live PPVs at a much lower cost to the customer. While this model does endanger their already crumbling domestic PPV infrastructure, it prepares the WWE for the next era which is built on a bedrock of new TV Rights Fees (starting in 2015).

This quarter has been filled with WWE Network speculation fueled by credible statements from the WWE:

First was Stephanie McMahon's statement at NYC Television Week that they were "targeting first quarter next year."

Next came the Q3 Conference Call which included many of the same talking points including using "traditional and non-traditional means of distribution" (Vince McMahon) for the WWE Network and the possibility of distribution via "traditional cable, satellite and telco partners’ or through over the top digital distribution." (CFO George Barrios)

A few weeks later Matthew Singerman was named the Executive Vice President of Programming with responsibility "for the strategic development of content, including original, unscripted and scripted shows, scheduling of all programming and operations across all distribution platforms, including a potential WWE Network."

That same week news broke from Cable Distributors that WWE was discontinuing the VOD (Video on Demand) service of WWE Classics on Demand on 1/31/14.

WWE issued a series of internal promotions including Chief Revenue and Marketing Officer Michelle Wilson (who is "spearheading the company’s efforts to launch a WWE Network") and Chief Strategy and Financial Officer George Barrios (who will "take over management of WWE’s day-to-day Television Operations" and "With Wilson, Barrios is co-leading WWE’s television rights negotiations")

Meanwhile, wrestling websites, analysts, observers, personalities and pundits have been feeding a steady stream of unconfirmed, but plausible details into the delicate WWE Network Rumor ecosystem:

PWInsider reported that the exact "first quarter next year" launch date for the WWE Network would be 2/24/2014 - the day following the Elimination Chamber PPV. 

Dave Meltzer wrote in the 11/25/2013 Wrestling Observer Newsletter (subscription required) of a myriad of details including offering Wrestlemania on the WWE Network this year and the possibility that the network would be offered through Netflix instead of traditional Cable/Satellite distributors. 

Former WWE Writer Court Bauer discussed on the MLW Bauer + Pollock Podcast that WWE was struggling to gain any clearances with Cable Networks and streaming sites such as Hulu were unlikely to carry the WWE Network due to recent upper management shake-ups.
Yesterday (12/5), Wrestlezone's Justin LaBarr posted a titillating series of claims about the WWE Network. Summarized by David Bixenspan the important parts were that WWE Network would be available "online only on all major connected devices, 24/7 stream plus an on demand library that includes every Raw, Smackdown, and PPV to date at launch." Also, the price would be "$10/month with a $60 up-front at launch for the first 6 months but that would include Wrestlemania 30 and all subsequent non-WM PPVs as part of the subscription." 

Subsequently, sources such as Dave Meltzer and Voices of Wrestling's own Rich Kraetsch reported that MLB Advanced Media would be handling the streaming technology required for online access.

Throughout these rumor mill, WWE has remained non-committal: “In addition to not being able to confirm timing of WWE Network launch, WWE is still considering all options for distribution, pricing and role of pay-per-view.”

WHAT IT MAY BE

The signs for the WWE Network launch seem to be pointing to three things:

1. WWE will be launching the Network during the first quarter of 2014. It makes the most sense to launch it during the Royal Rumble to Wrestlemania period when the WWE Viewership and Interst is the highest. The oft-repeated launch date of 2/24/2014 seems quite reasonable (more on that below).
   
2. WWE is likely already working with top companies in the area of streaming media so they'll be capable of providing a reliable WWE Network stream. This would be completely outside of using the traditional Cable/Satellite distributor Premium Channel realm.
   
3. In order to provide maximum incentive to lure fans to subscribe, WWE would include a major launch enticement such as including Wrestlemania as part of the Network this year.

Increasingly, we're not hearing about traction for traditional distribution over Cable or Satellite Networks for the WWE Network (either as a regular channel or a premium channel).

John Williams has made an excellent case for how WWE missed an opportunity to launch WWE Network as a regular channel replacing G4 when Comcast was looking to sell it. (Even UFC was considering buying the channel back in 2011 prior to their blockbuster Fox deal) As a premium channel, there's been little buzz from distributors and no leaked reports of potential coverage. That's telling. Presumably, the lure of taking a monthly split off the $10-$15 WWE Network subscription price versus the monthly split off the $45-$55 PPV price was not exciting cable or satellite partners.

An online-only WWE Network is certainly a mixed bag. From a forward-looking and long-term perspective, I believe it's ultimately the right move. You're looking at the trends of a cord-cutting younger generation geared towards obtaining content online, a massive Netflix subscription boom (30 million subscribers, with over "31% of downstream bandwidth in North America is for Netflix alone") and phenomenon of people canceling Cable in the Great Recession as Cable bills skyrocket. Conversely, it's the Networks (primarily NBCU) which are fueling the WWE through TV Right Fees (currently over $160M/year and possibly poised to double with the latest negotiations). While Networks haven't been showing WWE much love when it comes to carrying the WWE Network, they can't be giddy about the notion WWE might be cutting them out of the picture.

Coverage through streaming players (such as a ChromeCast, Apple TV, Roku box) and major gaming consoles (PS3/PS4, XBox360, XBox One, WiiU) will allow WWE fans to watch the WWE Network on their television sets and not just on their tablet and computer screens. Furthermore, WWE has invested heavily in promoting their free WWE App (5 million downloads) and a well-executed subscription streaming service would be an excellent tie-in for mobile devices and tablets that have already shown their interest in WWE content. (It is worth noting that WWE is already offering streaming PPV through XBox and Playstation but though the number of actual buys for PPVs through them was quite low - 17,300.)

Launching the WWE Network on 2/24/2014 (the day after Elimination Chamber in Minneapolis) has some auspicious timing. Typically, WWE releases their annual report and holds their 4th Quarter/Year-End Conference Call either the last week of February or the first week of March. The buzz from a successful (and they will be cagey on defining success up front) WWE Network launch would likely be a boon to their attempts to continue to impress investors. Plus, they won't have to actually answer the difficult question about the impact of selling a subsidized $10 HD stream of Wrestlemania while also asking for $60+ for the same product on traditional PPV. WWE also leads with their biggest event (rather than a weaker PPV like Elimination Chamber or their #2 or #3 best performer with Royal Rumble).

From a pricing standpoint, using a bundled 6-month price up-front (with Wrestlemania) has an intriguing strategy that it will prevent WWE customers from early cancellation (after just the one mega-event) and shield WWE should they have some early streaming iPPV problems (which have notably plagued wrestling companies all over the world - especially ROH, but also the juggernaut WWE.) Presumably, the split on a $9.95 price (keeping prices below $10 seems important in the online world as both Netflix and Hulu hover around $8) and being distributed online is far more favorable than what they'd see with Cable/Satellite distributors. I'd wager they'll get to keep at least 80% of an online subscription (depending on card fees and their deal with the streaming providers) while they'd be looking at more like 30-45% for a Premium Cable Channel.

It's difficult to know the impact on the domestic PPV business as PPVs will continue to be offered ala-cart via normal distribution methods (and normal PPV prices) throughout 2014. I believe that an online WWE Network model will have several hundred thousand subscribers at first (depending on whether this service expands from a purely North American Network to an International Network), but will not come close to the million subscriber number (that WWE touted as their requirement for a traditionally distributed WWE Network Break-even point). It's also likely that the WWE Domestic PPV base won't collapse as rapidly in 2014 with an online-only distribution model versus a premium channel. Last year, CFO George Barrios estimated WWE Network would spend between $30 and $45 million to get things running and it will probably take at least half a million subscribers annually to just off-set that cost alone. (And we're just talking WWE Network startup costs. Someone has to cover the $38M+ in annual costs to produce PPV events.)

Still, if WWE can keep things together until 2015, they have the promise of vast TV Rights riches from new Raw and Smackdown contracts to carry the business into the future.

Chris Harrington (@mookieghana) is working on his first book, #Wrestlenomics—a collection of pro-wrestling analytics and statistics. He can be reached at chris.harrington@gmail.com and regularly updates his wrestling statistics website indeedwrestling.com and his blog indeedwrestling.blogspot.com

WWE 2006-2015 PPV Numbers (and a lengthy discourse of PPV buy counting)

WWE 2006-2015 PPV Numbers
Analysis by Chris Harrington (@mookieghana on twitter)

Introduction
When you're pulling together Wrestling Statistics, your worst enemy is the sourceless "fact". 
It appears on the internet (or that archived Usenet post) and makes a bold claim without rhyme or reason. Who was under that mask? How many buys did that PPV do? How much did that territory sell for? What's the best strategy for mapping the icosahedron when I'm hunting a Wumpus? It can be maddening.

So, when possible, I do try to cite my sources.
In this case, I decided to go with number of Worldwide and North American Pay-Per-View Buy numbers as published by Dave Meltzer in his Wrestling Observer Newsletter.  All of these issues are online, so if you have a subscription, I do encourage you to check my transcription skills.

There's other places you can find PPV buy numbers. I highly recommend Jason Campbell's Regularly Updated Spreadsheet at Pro Wrestling History (it's usually populated with information noted in Dave's newsletter). If you're more interested in a direct source, the WWE offers a nice chart each month as part of their Key Performance Indicators (KPI) on their Corporate Website.  And since WWE became a publicly traded company on the NYSE on October 19, 1999, WWE has publishes their Quarterly Reports (8-K) and Annual Reports (10-K) with the SEC.

In the beginning, WWF was quite opaque about the specific number of buys for most PPV events. (Wrestlemania was the one exception since it was an industry gem and chance to brag.)  A quarterly report might cryptically note, "We exceeded the number of buys for each event that occurred in the same period as last year except one." However, over time, responding to complaints from Investors and Analysts, WWE began clearly reporting worldwide numbers for each PPV held in that quarter.

WWE always has two majors caveats whenever they're discussing PPVs:
1) "This initial estimate is based on preliminary buy information received from our pay-per-view distributors."
2) "Final reconciliation of the pay-per-view buys generally occurs within one year and any subsequent adjustments to the buys are recognized in the period new information is received."

Essentially, the number of buys reported for a PPV isn't necessary that final number of buys for a PPV. It can be a maddening process, and one that causes a lot of confusion.  Additionally, not all of the information is reported in a single place at the same time.  Domestic/Worldwide PPV splits used to appear in the quarterly and annual reports.  Now, they're usually only available through the unaudited monthly KPIs releases (which, in turn, are not handily archived and accessible in the same fashion as all of the SEC filings). Another good pair of resources are the Trending Schedules available on the Corporate Website and the 10-Q SEC Filings.

Each quarter WWE reports their latest estimate for PPV buys for that quarter along with the "Prior Period Buys" which essentially are the adjusting the PPVs that occurred outside of the current period. Usually, the assumption is that most of these "Prior Period Buys" are connected to the previous period's PPVs (try saying that three times fast!) though in some cases - Wrestlemania, for instance - we can see adjustments to the final number many months later.  Those adjustments can be both positive or negative.

Sometimes those adjustments are applied to the chart that is part of the monthly KPIs. Sometimes WWE will specifically quote figures around PPVs - particularly Wrestlemania buys, in a press release. Or sometimes as part of news articles  (in periodicals such as Advertising Age, SportsBusinss Journal, Forbes, Fortune, Hollywood Variety) they'll quote specific buy numbers.  When Linda McMahon was running for Congress, the WWE was especially open with offering PPV buy numbers when journalists inquired.  However, in the end, it can be quite piecemeal.

Your initial PPV buy estimates are typically pretty good, but they are cases where certain PPVs have enormous swings. As WWE notes, their "initial estimate" is based on "preliminary buy information".
When the business of purchasing a PPV was a lot more complicated and reconciliation between Cable Franchises and PPV Distributors was more cumbersome, it was understandable why there was such a large delay for WWF to available how successful their PPV was.  Many of the best indications appeared in the industry press (Broadcasting & Cable or Multichannel News) where large regional cable franchisees would report the buyrate for their system for a major wrestling PPV.  When WWF wasn't a public company, these Cable Franchise reports quoted in industry periodicals would often serve as the best source of information - particularly in the early 1990s.

This brings up the important distinction between buys and buyrates.  For decades, Cable (and Satellite) were growing businesses that expanded the overall number of PPV-capable homes year after year. Franchises would report the percentage of their capable homes which purchased an event (the buyrate). The number of buys was "eligible subscribers x buyrate".  Since the "universe" was growing year after year, the focus was on the buyrate - not just the pure number of buys.  However, as the "universe" hit a plateau and even began decreasing (Netflix/cord cutter generation + great recession cutbacks + escalating cable prices), along with the mid-2000s age of digital cable systems (which greatly reduced cable "black box" piracy), the accounting has moved over purely to buys.

(If you're curious about specific number of PPV-capable homes by year, I suggest you look at "Stay Tuned: A History of American Broadcasting".  After an exhaustive search, I came across a useful table on page 871 Appendix C which has exactly that.)

In this modern age, it does not make as much sense to talk about buyrates - only buys. The Cable/Satellite PPV eligible Universe is pretty stable. And there are alternative methods of distribution (which are growing) such as through Next-Gen Video Game Consoles (PS3 and XBOX-360 machines), Web Streaming (through WWE.com and through WWE's App).

So, what's the best way to track all of this information which is being published in pieces at various times throughout the entire year and covering often disparate time-frames and events?  A weekly newsletter isn't a bad start.  So, that's why I'm using Dave Meltzer's number - particularly for 2006-2013 period.  I've also double-checked these against SEC Filings and KPI releases and generally, they're the same numbers.  If anything the differences come down to how you apply a domestic/worldwide PPV split and how you attribute prior period buys.

EVENT	DATE	PRICE	Worldwide  Buys	NA Buys	Source
New Year's Revolution 2006	1/8/2006	34.95	345	214	4/6/09 WO
Royal Rumble 2006	1/29/2006	34.95	585	357	4/6/09 WO
No Way Out 2006	2/19/2006	34.95	218	133	4/6/09 WO
WrestleMania 22	4/2/2006	49.95	975	636	4/6/09 WO
Backlash 2006	4/30/2006	34.95	230	143	4/6/09 WO
Judgment Day 2006	5/21/2006	34.95	252	154	4/6/09 WO
One Night Stand 2006	6/11/2006	39.95	304	185	4/6/09 WO
Vengeance 2006	6/25/2006	39.95	429	270	4/6/09 WO
Great American Bash 2006	7/23/2006	39.95	232	141	4/6/09 WO
SummerSlam 2006	8/20/2006	39.95	541	330	4/6/09 WO
Unforgiven 2006	9/17/2006	39.95	307	187	4/6/09 WO
No Mercy 2006	10/8/2006	39.95	197	114	4/6/09 WO
Cyber Sunday 2006	11/5/2006	39.95	228	139	4/6/09 WO
Survivor Series 2006	11/26/2006	39.95	383	234	4/6/09 WO
December to Dismember	12/3/2006	39.95	90	52	4/6/09 WO
Armageddon 2006	12/17/2006	39.95	239	139	4/6/09 WO
New Year's Revolution 2007	1/7/2007	39.95	225	149	4/6/09 WO
Royal Rumble 2007	1/28/2007	39.95	525	347	4/6/09 WO
No Way Out 2007	2/18/2007	39.95	205	135	4/6/09 WO
WrestleMania 23	4/1/2007	54.95	1250	825	4/6/09 WO
Backlash 2007	4/29/2007	39.95	210	139	4/6/09 WO
Judgment Day 2007	5/20/2007	39.95	240	158	4/6/09 WO
One Night Stand 2007	6/3/2007	39.95	188	124	4/6/09 WO
Vengeance 2007	6/24/2007	39.95	255	168	4/6/09 WO
Great American Bash 2007	7/22/2007	39.95	250	165	4/6/09 WO
SummerSlam 2007	8/26/2007	39.95	545	360	4/6/09 WO
Unforgiven 2007	9/16/2007	39.95	220	134	4/6/09 WO
No Mercy 2007	10/7/2007	39.95	271	171	4/6/09 WO
Cyber Sunday 2007	10/28/2007	39.95	194	122	4/6/09 WO
Survivor Series 2007	11/18/2007	39.95	341	215	4/6/09 WO
Armageddon 2007	12/16/2007	39.95	237	149	4/6/09 WO
Royal Rumble 2008	1/27/2008	39.95	575	403	2/23/11 WO
No Way Out 2008	2/17/2008	39.95	365	256	2/23/11 WO
WrestleMania XXIV	3/30/2008	49.95	1041	697	2/23/11 WO
Backlash 2008	4/27/2008	39.95	210	141	2/23/11 WO
Judgment Day 2008	5/18/2008	39.95	252	169	2/23/11 WO
One Night Stand 2008	6/1/2008	39.95	200	134	2/23/11 WO
Night of Champions 2008	6/29/2008	39.95	286	191	2/23/11 WO
Great American Bash 2008	7/20/2008	39.95	196	135	2/23/11 WO
SummerSlam 2008	8/17/2008	39.95	477	329	2/23/11 WO
Unforgiven 2008	9/7/2008	39.95	211	146	2/23/11 WO
No Mercy 2008	10/5/2008	39.95	261	157	2/23/11 WO
Cyber Sunday 2008	10/26/2008	39.95	153	92	2/23/11 WO
Survivor Series 2008	11/23/2008	39.95	319	191	2/23/11 WO
Armageddon 2008	12/14/2008	39.95	193	116	2/23/11 WO
Royal Rumble 2009	1/25/2009	39.95	450	288	3/5/12 WO
No Way Out 2009	2/15/2009	39.95	272	174	3/5/12 WO
WrestleMania XXV	4/5/2009	54.95	975	605	3/5/12 WO
Backlash 2009	4/26/2009	39.95	182	116	3/5/12 WO
Judgment Day 2009	5/17/2009	39.95	238	146	3/5/12 WO
Extreme Rules 2009	6/7/2009	39.95	213	136	3/5/12 WO
The Bash 2009	6/28/2009	39.95	178	114	2/23/11 WO
Night of Champions 2009	7/26/2009	39.95	267	166	3/5/12 WO
SummerSlam 2009	8/23/2009	39.95	369	229	3/5/12 WO
Breaking Point 2009	9/13/2009	39.95	169	105	3/5/12 WO
Hell in a Cell 2009	10/4/2009	39.95	283	164	3/5/12 WO
Bragging Rights 2009	10/25/2009	39.95	181	105	3/5/12 WO
Survivor Series 2009	11/22/2009	39.95	235	136	3/5/12 WO
TLC 2009	12/13/2009	39.95	228	132	3/5/12 WO
Royal Rumble 2010	1/31/2010	44.95	465	259	3/19/13 WO
Elimination Chamber 2010	2/21/2010	44.95	287	160	3/19/13 WO
WrestleMania XXVI	3/28/2010	54.95	885	495	3/19/13 WO
Extreme Rules 2010	4/25/2010	44.95	201	112	3/19/13 WO
Over the Limit 2010	5/23/2010	44.95	218	121	3/19/13 WO
Fatal Four Way 2010	6/20/2010	44.95	158	88	3/19/13 WO
Money in the Bank 2010	7/18/2010	44.95	164	98	3/19/13 WO
SummerSlam 2010	8/15/2010	44.95	349	209	3/19/13 WO
Night of Champions 2010	9/19/2010	44.95	165	99	3/19/13 WO
Hell in a Cell 2010	10/3/2010	44.95	210	109	3/19/13 WO
Bragging Rights 2010	10/24/2010	44.95	137	71	3/19/13 WO
Survivor Series 2010	11/21/2010	44.95	244	127	3/19/13 WO
TLC 2010	12/19/2010	44.95	195	101	3/19/13 WO
Royal Rumble 2011	1/30/2011	44.95	476	281	3/3/14 WO
Elimination Chamber 2011	2/20/2011	44.95	212	145	3/3/14 WO
WrestleMania XXVII	4/3/2011	54.95	1124	679	3/3/14 WO
Extreme Rules 2011	5/1/2011	44.95	216	108	3/3/14 WO
Over the Limit 2011	5/22/2011	44.95	145	72	3/3/14 WO
Capitol Punishment 2011	6/19/2011	44.95	176	85	3/3/14 WO
Money in the Bank 2011	7/17/2011	44.95	205	146	3/3/14 WO
SummerSlam 2011	8/14/2011	44.95	311	180	3/3/14 WO
Night of Champions 2011	9/18/2011	44.95	169	109	3/3/14 WO
Hell in a Cell 2011	10/2/2011	44.95	182	98	3/3/14 WO
Vengeance 2011	10/23/2011	44.95	121	65	3/3/14 WO
Survivor Series 2011	11/20/2011	44.95	312	179	3/3/14 WO
TLC 2011	12/18/2011	44.95	179	98	3/3/14 WO
Royal Rumble 2012	1/29/2012	44.95	483	299	8/11/14 WO
Elimination Chamber 2012	2/19/2012	44.95	194	138	8/11/14 WO
WrestleMania XXXVIII	4/1/2012	54.95	1219	715	8/11/14 WO
Extreme Rules 2012	4/29/2012	44.95	271	159	8/11/14 WO
Over the Limit 2012	5/20/2012	44.95	172	124	8/11/14 WO
No Way Out 2012	6/17/2012	44.95	200	110	8/11/14 WO
Money in the Bank 2012	7/15/2012	44.95	206	114	8/11/14 WO
SummerSlam 2012	8/19/2012	44.95	392	296	3/3/14 WO
Night of Champions 2012	9/16/2012	44.95	207	112	3/3/14 WO
Hell in a Cell 2012	10/28/2012	44.95	207	157	3/3/14 WO
Survivor Series 2012	11/18/2012	44.95	216	125	3/3/14 WO
TLC 2012	12/16/2012	44.95	181	75	3/3/14 WO
Royal Rumble 2013	1/27/2013	44.95	579	364	5/11/15 WO
Elimination Chamber 2013	2/17/2013	44.95	241	181	5/11/15 WO
WrestleMania 29	4/7/2013	59.95	1104	662	5/11/15 WO
Extreme Rules 2013	5/19/2013	44.95	245	137	2/23/15 WO
Payback 2013	6/16/2013	44.95	209	108	2/23/15 WO
Money in the Bank 2013	7/14/2013	44.95	223	169	2/23/15 WO
SummerSlam 2013	8/18/2013	44.95	332	207	2/23/15 WO
Night of Champions 2013	9/15/2013	44.95	196	103	2/23/15 WO
Battleground 2013	10/6/2013	44.95	119	84	2/23/15 WO
Hell in a Cell 2013	10/27/2013	44.95	232	135	2/23/15 WO
Survivor Series 2013	11/24/2013	44.95	184	98	2/23/15 WO
TLC 2013	12/15/2013	44.95	189	146	2/23/15 WO
Royal Rumble 2014	1/26/2014	44.95	517	337	5/11/15 WO
Elimination Chamber 2014	2/23/2014	44.95	203	159	5/11/15 WO
Wrestlemania 30	4/6/2014	59.95	684	420	5/11/15 WO
Extreme Rules 2014	5/4/2014	44.95	107	45	2/23/15 WO
Payback 2014	6/1/2014	44.95	66	29	2/23/15 WO
Money in the Bank 2014	6/29/2014	44.95	121	53	2/23/15 WO
Battleground 2014	7/20/2014	44.95	116	36	2/23/15 WO
SummerSlam 2014	8/17/2014	44.95	169	74	2/23/15 WO
Night of Champions 2014	9/21/2014	44.95	56	35	2/23/15 WO
Hell in a Cell 2014	10/26/2014	44.95	83	23	2/23/15 WO
Survivor Series 2014	11/23/2014	44.95	100	32	2/23/15 WO
TLC  2014	12/14/2014	44.95	39	17	2/23/15 WO
Royal Rumble 2015	1/25/2015	44.95	145	50	2/23/15 WO
Fastlane 2015	2/22/2015	44.95	46	26	2/23/15 WO
WrestleMania 31	3/29/2015	59.95	259	103	2/23/15 WO
Extreme Rules 2015	4/26/2015	44.95	56	31	8/10/15 WO
Payback 2015	5/17/2015	44.95	54	19	8/10/15 WO
Elimination Chamber 2015	5/31/2015	44.95	41	41	8/10/15 WO
Money in the Bank 2015	6/14/2015	44.95	57	20	8/10/15 WO
Battleground 2015	7/19/2015	44.95	80		10/29/15 8-K
SummerSlam 2015	8/23/2015	44.95	121		10/29/15 8-K
Night of Champions 2015	9/20/2015	44.95	77		10/29/15 8-K

Lastly, I'd note that the PPVs that are reported closest to the period end (or the month-end for KPIs) are the ones that tend to change the most over time.  Additionally, not every PPV is offered as a "PPV" on international systems. These events usually stick out because the ratio between domestic/worldwide sharply spikes (as you'll see with Battleground 2013 which was shown as a "free" event on SkyTV in the UK.)  Also, in the past there's been disputes with Satellite providers which artificially impacted the number of homes that could order the PPV.

-Chris Harrington

email: chris.harrington@gmail.com

twitter: @mookieghana

WWE RAW Viewers in the 3 Hour Era (July 23 2012 to Dec 2 2013) Analysis

Raw Data (some pun intended) was pulled from TV By the Numbers and Wrestling Observer

Notes on Special RAW Shows during these 72 weeks

• July 23 2012 was also the RAW 1,000 Special which was heavily hyped (6 million viewers)
• August 6 2012 was Shawn Michaels Appreciation Night (4.36 million viewers)
• Dec 17 2012 was 2012 Slammy Awards (4.23 million viewers)
• Dec 24 2012 was aired on Christmas Eve (RAW Christmas Special) (3.14 million viewers)
• Dec 31 2012 was aired on New Years Eve (Champions Choice) (3.55 million viewers)
• January 14 2013 was 20th Anniversary Special (4.55 million viewers)
• January 28 2013 was 2013 Raw Roulette (5.02 million viewers)
• March 4 2013 was WWE Old School (5.01 million viewers)

Most Common Viewership Patterns:

It's evenly split between the first hour being the weakest (34 weeks) and the final hour being the weakest (34 weeks).  It's exceptionally rare to have the middle hour have the lowest viewership (only happened in 2013 during 5/6, 6/17, 9/30 and 10/7 shows).

Quarterly Averages

All 3-hour RAWs since 7/23/12 Included:

(Also, you can compare the numbers when you take out some of the unusual episode (1,000 episode, Xmas Eve, NYE, 20th Anniversary, Old School.)

Two observations about the 4th Quarter (September to December):

• It's not uncommon to see such a weak fourth quarter - more than half a million viewers typically return after the start of the year during the key Royal Rumble to Wrestlemania season.
• It's very rare that the final hour has most viewers in the fourth quarter- out of 23 weeks, only once (10/7/13) was the final hour had the most viewers. It's much more common that the final hour has the highest viewership in the 2nd and 3rd quarters (almost 30% of the shows).

The "post-PPV bump"

In general, Viewership goes up 3% to 4% the day after a PPV as loyal fans and the loyal non-purchasers (an ever increasing number it seems) tune in to find out what happened at last night's event.  If you exclude many of the unusual PPVs listed above, my estimate is about +170,000 viewers tune in. The biggest overall improvement comes in the 1st hour (+219,000 viewers; +5.5%) as compared to the 2nd hour (+160,000 viewers; +3.8%) or 3rd hour (+130,000 viewers; +3.2%).

The size of the bump is also tied to the importance of the PPV - for instance, the RAW episode following an A-level PPV (Royal Rumble, Summer Slam or especially Wrestlemania) is almost +400,000 people versus another normal Q1/Q2/Q3 episode.  However, the RAW episode following a B-level PPV is substantially weaker (about +100,000 for the first hour but no substantial gain for second or third hours).

The last 34 weeks have not reflected a great trend for WWE - particularly with their RAW and Smackdown Contract Negotiations looming as a major milestone in 2014.  However, what is the most important question is whether or not we'll see viewership return to robust Q1 levels, or whether the fatigue of 180+ minutes of weekly Raw is just too much for television for anyone beyond the hardcores.

Some more stats for those that care:

Really seems clear that viewers have finally been trained to tune in early (8 pm) to catch the post-PPV action.

Chris Harrington (@mookieghana) is working on his first book, Wrestlenomics—a collection of pro-wrestling analytics and statistics. He can be reached at chris.harrington@gmail.com and regularly updates his wrestling statistics website indeedwrestling.com and his blog indeedwrestling.blogspot.com

WWE 2000-2013 stats

After a quick review of the post-WCW, post-ECW era for WWF/WWE most matches...
source data: TheHistoryofWWE.com
Analysis: Chris Harrington (indeedwrestling@gmail.com)

DATA


More than 1,000 matches

Kane: 1581 matches (14 years)

John Cena: 1488 matches (12 years)

Randy Orton: 1466 matches (13 years)

The Big Show: 1397 matches (13 years)

Edge: 1249 matches (12 years)

Chris Jericho: 1238 matches (12 years)

Matt Hardy: 1227 matches (11 years)

Christian: 1191 matches (11 years)

Triple H: 1064 matches (11 years)

Rey Mysterio Jr: 1037 matches (11 years)

More than 800 matches

CM Punk: 996 matches (8 years)

Shelton Benjamin: 940 matches (9 years)

John Morrison: 927 matches (8 years)

The Miz: 915 matches (9 years)

Chavo Guerrero Jr: 885 matches (11 years)

William Regal: 879 matches (12 years)

Mark Henry: 872 matches (12 years)

Batista: 872 matches (9 years)

Chris Benoit: 867 matches (7 years)

Jeff Hardy: 860 matches (8 years)

Kofi Kingston: 842 matches (7 years)

Kurt Angle: 815 matches (7 years)

The Undertaker: 815 matches (11 years)

Cody Rhodes: 803 matches (7 years)

More than 500 matches

Bradshaw: 796 matches (8 years)

Dolph Ziggler: 780 matches (8 years)

Val Venis: 762 matches (9 years)

Hurricane Helms: 691 matches (9 years)

Rob Van Dam: 687 matches (7 years)

Booker T: 683 matches (8 years)

Sho Funaki: 669 matches (10 years)

D-Von Dudley: 666 matches (5 years)

Bubba Ray Dudley: 665 matches (5 years)

Carlito: 663 matches (7 years)

Jack Swagger: 657 matches (6 years)

Albert: 651 matches (7 years)

Ron Killings: 638 matches (8 years)

Santino Marella: 629 matches (7 years)

Charlie Haas: 625 matches (9 years)

Test: 621 matches (7 years)

Bob Holly: 609 matches (9 years)

Sheamus: 607 matches (5 years)

MVP: 584 matches (5 years)

Eddie Guerrero: 581 matches (6 years)

Victoria: 558 matches (7 years)

Tommy Dreamer: 557 matches (7 years)

Beth Phoenix: 545 matches (6 years)

Tajiri: 544 matches (5 years)

Scotty 2 Hotty: 532 matches (8 years)

Zack Ryder: 531 matches (7 years)

Fit Finlay: 520 matches (5 years)

Lance Cade: 517 matches (6 years)

Brian Kendrick: 516 matches (6 years)

Jamie Noble: 516 matches (7 years)

Chris Masters: 516 matches (7 years)

More than 300 matches

Shawn Michaels: 494 matches (8 years)

Ted Dibiase Jr: 492 matches (5 years)

Chuck Palumbo: 485 matches (6 years)

The Great Khali: 481 matches (8 years)

Daniel Bryan: 480 matches (4 years)

Paul London: 475 matches (6 years)

Primo Colon: 465 matches (6 years)

Spike Dudley: 461 matches (5 years)

Mickie James: 459 matches (5 years)

Alberto Del Rio: 453 matches (4 years)

Trish Stratus: 451 matches (7 years)

Steven Richards: 451 matches (9 years)

Tyson Kidd: 434 matches (4 years)

Rikishi: 433 matches (5 years)

Drew McIntyre: 430 matches (6 years)

Nunzio: 426 matches (6 years)

Billy Gunn: 421 matches (5 years)

Kelly Kelly: 411 matches (7 years)

Crash Holly: 408 matches (4 years)

Natalya Neidhart: 403 matches (6 years)

Gene Snitsky: 403 matches (5 years)

Rob Conway: 402 matches (5 years)

Vladimir Kozlov: 394 matches (6 years)

Evan Bourne: 393 matches (5 years)

JTG: 390 matches (7 years)

Rhyno: 383 matches (4 years)

Ric Flair: 382 matches (7 years)

Umaga: 382 matches (5 years)

Molly Holly: 382 matches (6 years)

Melina: 369 matches (7 years)

Wade Barrett: 364 matches (4 years)

Goldust: 364 matches (6 years)

Jimmy Yang: 361 matches (8 years)

Layla: 357 matches (7 years)

Billy Kidman: 355 matches (5 years)

Michelle McCool: 351 matches (6 years)

Trevor Murdoch: 351 matches (4 years)

Rene Dupree: 342 matches (4 years)

Sylvian Grenier: 339 matches (5 years)

Alicia Fox: 330 matches (5 years)

Lance Storm: 329 matches (4 years)

Torrie Wilson: 326 matches (7 years)

Lita: 320 matches (6 years)

Eve: 318 matches (4 years)

Ron Simmons: 317 matches (5 years)

Viscera: 305 matches (5 years)

Nick Dinsmore: 304 matches (5 years)

David Hart Smith: 302 matches (6 years)

Orlando Jordan: 300 matches (4 years)

More than 75 matches

Super Crazy: 295 matches (4 years)

Maven: 292 matches (4 years)

Maryse: 288 matches (4 years)

Ken Kennedy: 288 matches (4 years)

Heath Slater: 286 matches (4 years)

The Rock: 277 matches (3 years)

Perry Saturn: 276 matches (3 years)

X-Pac: 274 matches (3 years)

Rosey: 272 matches (3 years)

Justin Gabriel: 271 matches (4 years)

Ezekiel Jackson: 269 matches (5 years)

Brock Lesnar: 268 matches (4 years)

Mark Jindrak: 267 matches (3 years)

Shad Gaspard: 266 matches (5 years)

Bobby Lashley: 265 matches (3 years)

Shannon Moore: 263 matches (7 years)

Rico: 261 matches (4 years)

Doug Basham: 261 matches (4 years)

Brie Bella: 261 matches (6 years)

Danny Basham: 259 matches (4 years)

Gail Kim: 253 matches (5 years)

D-Lo Brown: 253 matches (4 years)

Kenny Dykstra: 243 matches (4 years)

Raven: 241 matches (3 years)

Mike Knox: 237 matches (4 years)

Jey Uso: 234 matches (4 years)

Alex Riley: 230 matches (4 years)

Jimmy Uso: 229 matches (4 years)

Curt Hawkins: 224 matches (5 years)

Jillian Hall: 223 matches (5 years)

Curtis Axel: 222 matches (4 years)

Yoshi Tatsu: 221 matches (4 years)

Charles Wright: 218 matches (3 years)

Joey Mercury: 216 matches (4 years)

Damien Sandow: 215 matches (4 years)

rumble: 214 matches (8 years)

David Otunga: 214 matches (3 years)

Luke Gallows: 213 matches (4 years)

Nikki Bella: 206 matches (6 years)

Tyson Tomko: 203 matches (4 years)

Brian Christopher: 200 matches (2 years)

Steve Blackman: 196 matches (2 years)

Ivory: 195 matches (4 years)

Steve Austin: 194 matches (3 years)

Paul Birchill: 194 matches (5 years)

John Heidenreich: 194 matches (3 years)

Brodus Clay: 191 matches (3 years)

Al Snow: 190 matches (4 years)

Justin Credible: 188 matches (3 years)

Bull Buchanon: 184 matches (2 years)

Kevin Thorn: 183 matches (3 years)

Darren Young: 182 matches (4 years)

Maria: 181 matches (4 years)

Jinder Mahal: 180 matches (3 years)

Dawn Marie: 179 matches (4 years)

Jackie: 177 matches (4 years)

Johnny Stamboli: 172 matches (2 years)

Tazz: 170 matches (3 years)

Simon Dean: 169 matches (4 years)

Robbie McAllister: 169 matches (3 years)

Dean Malenko: 169 matches (2 years)

Ryback: 167 matches (3 years)

the Big Bossman: 165 matches (3 years)

Jazz: 165 matches (4 years)

Rory McAllister: 161 matches (3 years)

Candice Michelle: 159 matches (4 years)

Matt Striker: 158 matches (4 years)

Titus O'Neil: 158 matches (3 years)

Jim Duggan: 156 matches (3 years)

Sin Cara: 155 matches (3 years)

Bill DeMott: 151 matches (3 years)

Tyler Reks: 148 matches (4 years)

Antonio Cesaro: 146 matches (2 years)

Luther Reigns: 143 matches (3 years)

Essa Rios: 139 matches (2 years)

Ray Gordy: 138 matches (4 years)

Fandango: 138 matches (4 years)

Rodney Mack: 136 matches (2 years)

unknown: 134 matches (6 years)

Elijah Burke: 134 matches (2 years)

Road Dogg: 133 matches (1 years)

Sean O'Haire: 132 matches (2 years)

Johnny Jeter: 131 matches (2 years)

Epico: 128 matches (3 years)

Nidia: 127 matches (2 years)

Taka Michinoku: 127 matches (2 years)

Kaitlyn: 126 matches (3 years)

AJ: 126 matches (3 years)

Deuce: 126 matches (2 years)

Chaz Warrington: 125 matches (1 years)

Tamina: 120 matches (4 years)

Trent Barreta: 114 matches (3 years)

Mike Mondo: 114 matches (1 years)

Scott Steiner: 114 matches (1 years)

Chris Kanyon: 113 matches (2 years)

Domino: 111 matches (2 years)

Mason Ryan: 110 matches (3 years)

Sabu: 106 matches (2 years)

Shawn Stasiak: 103 matches (2 years)

Dean Ambrose: 99 matches (2 years)

Percy Watson: 98 matches (3 years)

Muhammad Hassan: 95 matches (2 years)

Vito: 94 matches (2 years)

Rosa Mendes: 92 matches (3 years)

the Sandman: 88 matches (2 years)

Psychosis: 88 matches (2 years)

Stacy Keibler: 87 matches (3 years)

Seth Rollins: 87 matches (2 years)

Kenzo Suzuki: 87 matches (2 years)

Jerry Lawler: 87 matches (3 years)

Joey Abs: 86 matches (1 years)

Road Warrior Animal: 84 matches (2 years)

Balls Mahoney: 84 matches (2 years)

Hunico: 83 matches (2 years)

Kid Kash: 82 matches (2 years)

Katie Lea Burchill: 81 matches (2 years)

Daivari: 80 matches (3 years)

Hornswoggle: 80 matches (3 years)

the Ultimo Dragon: 79 matches (2 years)

Shane McMahon: 79 matches (4 years)

Tatanka: 78 matches (1 years)

Gangrel: 77 matches (1 years)

A FEW COMMENTS

It's easy to forget about Kane.  The only people who've wrestled more than a decade consistently (with more than ten matches in WWE each year) from 2000 onward are Glen Jacobs, John Cena, Randy Orton, Paul "Big Show" Wight, Chris Jericho, Edge, William Regal and Mark Henry. 2010 marked a lot of endpoints: Undertaker and Triple H's last major runs were in 2010.  Matt Hardy left in 2010.  In 2011, Edge retired, John Morrison left for Hollywood, Chavo Guerrero Jr finally departed and Michelle McCool headed for off for a life as Mrs. Undertaker.  Throughout all of this, Kane continued.

Kane had major tag-teams with his "brother" the Undertaker (especially 2000/2001), with the Big Show (2005, 2006 and again in 2011), Hell No (starring Daniel Bryan and their awkward hugs) 2012-2013 and RVD (2003).  His number one opponent from 2000-2013 was actually Rey Mysterio Jr with more than 75 matches against one another - especially in the 2008-2009 period.  He also had major feuds against MVP (2006-2007), Edge (2005) and Triple H (2000-2001).  Still, overwhelming, the person that Kane worked with the most in the ring (either as a partner or an opponent) was the Undertaker (170+ matches) followed by Big Show (136+ matches) and Rey Mysterio Jr and Chris Jericho (both with 93+ matches).

THE ENDS OF THE SPECTRUM

High Winning Percentage

• John Cena: 1123-251-54 and 1 other match = 82% win
• the Undertaker: 642-115-40 = 85% win
• Shawn Michaels: 378-95-21 = 80% win
• Bobby Lashley: 226-33-6 = 87% win
• Ryback: 126-33-5 = 79% win
• Sin Cara: 120-31-4 = 79% win
• Bill Goldberg: 43-4-6 = 91% win
• Christy Hemme: 42-8-2 = 84% win

Lowest Winning Percentage

• Shannon Moore: 57-205-1 = 22% win
• Heath Slater: 39-204-1 = 16% win
• Mike Knox: 51-185-1 = 22% win
• Jillian Hall: 46-163-1 = 22% win
• Dawn Marie: 31-145-2 and 1 other match = 18% win
• Stacy Keibler: 19-66-2 = 22% win
• Rosa Mendes: 10-73-0 = 12% win
• Katie Lea Burchill: 18-63-0 = 22% win
• Gangrel: 18-58-1 = 24% win
• Dave Taylor: 13-57-1 = 19% win
• Eric Escobar: 11-58-0 = 16% win
• Antonio: 9-59-0 = 13% win
• Romeo: 9-53-0 = 15% win
• James Curtis: 7-47-1 = 13% win
• Headbanger Thrasher: 11-41-1 = 21% win
• Sakoda: 11-41-0 = 21% win

Right in the Middle

• Randy Orton: 679-657-50 and 1 other match = 51% win
• Hurricane Helms: 343-340-8 = 50% win
• Booker T: 336-325-22 = 51% win
• D-Von Dudley: 332-320-14 = 51% win
• Bubba Ray Dudley: 323-329-13 = 50% win
• Bob Holly: 299-299-11 = 50% win
• Tajiri: 273-265-6 = 51% win
• Billy Kidman: 179-172-4 = 51% win
• X-Pac: 133-128-13 = 51% win
• Brian Christopher: 96-99-5 = 49% win
• Joey Mercury: 95-92-1 = 51% win
• Tazz: 84-81-5 = 51% win
• Ray Gordy: 68-69-1 = 50% win
• Rodney Mack: 67-68-1 = 50% win
• Sabu: 53-51-2 = 51% win
• Dean Ambrose: 48-48-3 = 50% win
• Christopher Nowinski: 31-32-1 = 49% win
• Big E Langston: 30-31-1 = 49% win

EDIT: Was missing August-Dec 2010 in the original post.  Updated the match count on 12/5.