New Japan Pro Wrestling Draws: June 2008 - July 2013; additional 1999-2013 data.

"How much has NJPW turned around?  Has anyone looked at attendance and laid out the trends?" - Dylan Waco

I tried a quicker approach this morning utilizing the WON results June 2008 - July 2013 which I've already compiled.  They included 517 NJPW shows (which had attendance numbers for the majority - 493 shows) which provides a very nice sample. However, I this dataset may be missing many of the biggest shows (i.e. iPPVs that might have been reviewed separately by Dave) so I may need to amend those results into the dataset.

Let me outright state that my NJPW knowledge is not strong.  I listen to WO radio, sometimes I'll read the reviews or follow buzz online, but I don't know the players or situations that well.  Names are easy to screw up (I remember having to google to check that Hiroshi Tanahashi and Hiromu Takahashi are two separate people.) Thus, trying to offer conclusions on a product that I'm not familiar has potential for some really basic mistakes.

I started with isolating the top 16 "important" NJPW wrestlers for the shows that I had in the database.  (Since I'm using Data Analysis package in normal Excel you're limited to 16 variables unless you utilize an add-in. While this is more evidence that it's time I just learn R, I stubbornly continue to ply my trade in my own personal Pro Wrestling Visicalc World.) I ranked "importance" by giving points depending on their place on the card - if you were in the last match you got a full point and if you were in the opener, you didn't get a point.  That was balanced against total number of shows to eliminate wrestlers like Akebono who did only 5 shows in the database, but was at the top of the card for those shows.

The people that came up were: Hirooki Goto, Ryusuke Taguchi, Togi Makabe, Shinsuke Nakamura, Toru Yano, Tomohiro Ishii, Yuji Nagata, Hiroshi Tanahashi, Takashi Iizuka, Wataru Inoue, Gedo, Karl Anderson, Yujiro Takahashi, Prince Devitt, Tomoaki Honma, Tetsuya Naito.This did exclude a few people who technically were on many, many shows but their position on the card wasn't sufficiently high enough - including Tiger Mask, Jado, Taichi and Manabu Nakanishi.
Additionally, there are some people that didn't make the cut which I've noticed have moved up the card substantially in the last few years such as King Fale, Kazuchika Okada, Tama Tonga.  It might be more appropriate to substitute one (or more) of these wrestlers in for guys who aren't moving up the card like Wataru Inoue, Ryusuke Taguchi or Takashi Iizuka.

The quick & dirty attendance regression against which guys were on the card would suggest:

Statistically Relevant (p-value is 0.02 or lower)

• Shinsuke Nakamura (886)
• Togi Makabe (793)
• Yuji Nagata (774)
• Hirooki Goto (669)
• Hiroshi Tanahashi (501)
• Tetsuya Naito (361)* (p-value = 0.05)
• Tomohiro Ishii (-1003)

Statistically Questionable (p-value is above 0.15)

• Toru Yano (287)
• Prince Devitt (169)
• Tomoaki Honma (-42)
• Karl Anderson (-50)
• Ryusuke Taguchi (-154)
• Wataru Inoue (-245)
• Gedo (-272)
• Yujiro Takahashi (-286)
• Takashi Iizuka (-407)

This is implying that if I card with all of these people on it, we'd draw a little under 2,000 people.  This doesn't take into account the era of the wrestler - for instance, I know Prince Devitt had a heel turn recently so it would be conceivable to separate his tenure (much like separating Okada into his Rainmaker and pre-TNA personas).  It would be possible to treat these wrestlers as different people if I knew who and where to draw the lines.

Here is a look at the NJPW Talent average
place on the card (100%=last match) over the timeframe.

June 2008-July 2013

Attendance of NJPW Shows (from WON Results Section)

NJPW Attendance (All Shows in Dataset)

2008 (Jun-Dec): 2,367 (51 shows)

2009 (Jan-Dec): 2,036 (100 shows)

2010 (Jan-Dec): 1,875 (104 shows)

2011 (Jan-Dec): 1,660 (105 shows)

2012 (Jan-Dec): 1,545 (92 shows)

2013 (Jan-July): 1,501 (40 shows)

However, before I project a "sky-is-falling" trend let me again reiterate: (a) This may be missing some of the big shows NJPW did (b) This includes only results from the WON Section (which includes some of those tiny shows they did with less than 300 people and a crew of young fellas).  

If we look just at the blue dots (which were all of the shows under 2,500 people), the annual averages aren't changing that much:

NJPW (Small Shows under 2,500 people)

2008: 1,345 (39 shows)

2009: 1,284 (82 shows)

2010: 1,282 (88 shows)

2011: 1,272 (95 shows)

2012: 1,322 (86 shows)

2013: 1,398 (39 shows)

My initial takeaway is that from a drawing standpoint in the last five years, Tanahashi is among the top guys in NJPW, but it's not the top nor is he clearly a sole difference maker. (He's not a Hulk Hogan.) However, I would need more context before I could say whether I thought the claim was ludicrous or could be substantiated.

EDIT: I'm getting feedback about the big shows that I'm missing from this experiment (i.e. Wrestle Kingdom shows), so I might have to dig around to add those to the dataset. I've since identified about 130 NJPW events that weren't in my dataset for this timeframe (see https://sites.google.com/site/chrisharringt..._draw_2008_2013 for a list which shows were and were not included). Don't know when/if I will get combing through the results to augment the dataset with these. I might make an effort to add all of the PPVs (39 were missing) and TV shows (34 were missing) for starters.

EDIT2: I started taking all of the 1999-2013 results from http://www.puroresufan.com/njpw/

NJPW Average Attendance
1999: 5,183 attendance (139 shows out of 141)
2000: 5,161 attendance (129 shows out of 131)
2001: 5,212 attendance (120 shows out of 122)
2002: 4,246 attendance (127 shows out of 129)
2003: 4,168 attendance (125 shows out of 127)
2004: 3,631 attendance (137 shows out of 140)
2005: 3,348 attendance (122 shows out of 124)
2006: 2,566 attendance (114 shows out of 117)
2007: 2,681 attendance (105 shows out of 109)
2008: 2,425 attendance (106 shows out of 108)
2009: 2,628 attendance (111 shows out of 114)
2010: 2,334 attendance (125 shows out of 132)
2011: 2,368 attendance (127 shows out of 136)
2012: 2,480 attendance (117 shows out of 122)
2013: 2,721 attendance (79 shows out of 85)

I hear ya.

Here's my last shot:

I split the shows up into four buckets: 0-1300 (quartile 1), 1300-1861 (quartile 2), 1861-3000 (quartile 3), 3000+ (quartile 4)




What I'm seeing is that they're running more small shows, and so it's pulling the average down. 

RAW NUMBERS:

1999
Q1: 775 (3)
Q2: 1669 (24)
Q3: 2329 (42)
Q4: 8289 (70)

(Read as three small shows with average of 775 attendance avg, twenty-four medium shows with 1,669 attendance avg, forty-two large shows with 2,329 attendance average, seventy giant shows with 8,289 attendance average).

2000
Q1: 812 (4)
Q2: 1663 (19)
Q3: 2334 (47)
Q4: 8834 (59)


2001
Q1: 717 (3)
Q2: 1708 (17)
Q3: 2283 (40)
Q4: 8383 (60)

2002
Q1: 965 (7)
Q2: 1595 (41)
Q3: 2329 (31)
Q4: 8227 (48)

2003
Q1: 965 (10)
Q2: 1554 (46)
Q3: 2265 (33)
Q4: 10144 (36)

2004
Q1: 990 (15)
Q2: 1534 (55)
Q3: 2293 (34)
Q4: 9706 (33)

2005
Q1: 928 (28)
Q2: 1457 (41)
Q3: 2150 (20)
Q4: 8476 (33)

2006
Q1: 959 (36)
Q2: 1494 (46)
Q3: 2286 (11)
Q4: 7812 (21)

2007
Q1: 967 (36)
Q2: 1494 (27)
Q3: 2228 (21)
Q4: 7598 (21)

2008
Q1: 884 (44)
Q2: 1526 (25)
Q3: 2112 (19)
Q4: 7772 (18)

2009
Q1: 972 (48)
Q2: 1475 (25)
Q3: 2153 (18)
Q4: 8470 (20)

2010
Q1: 889 (59)
Q2: 1530 (24)
Q3: 2149 (24)
Q4: 8390 (18)

2011
Q1: 857 (60)
Q2: 1599 (27)
Q3: 2096 (22)
Q4: 8889 (18)

2012
Q1: 818 (46)
Q2: 1499 (27)
Q3: 2123 (27)
Q4: 9103 (17)

2013
Q1: 1006 (21)
Q2: 1554 (27)
Q3: 2100 (17)
Q4: 8300 (14)

Total Average of attendance
Q1: 911 (420)
Q2: 1546 (471)
Q3: 2237 (406)
Q4: 8600 (486)

Win/Loss Records for WWF Champions prior to winning the Belt

Win/Loss Records for WWF Champions prior to winning the Belt by Chris Harrington

I was thinking about WWWF/WWF/WWE Champions 1963-2013.

 wondered whether there was any correlation between the length of a championship reign and whether that wrestler had a winning-record in the months prior to winning the belt.

Name	won		Cumulative Six Prior Months		REIGN
Bruno Sammartino	5/17/1963		20-5-1 and 8 other	80%	2803
Ivan Koloff	1/18/1971		29-3-4 and 9 other	91%	21
Pedro Morales	2/8/1971		13-0-3 and 3 other	100%	1027
Stan Stasiak	12/1/1973		9-11-4 and 5 other	45%	9
Bruno Sammartino	12/10/1973		4-1 and 5 other	80%	1237
Superstar Billy Graham	4/30/1977		10-0	100%	296
Bob Backlund	2/20/1978		49-1-1 and 15 other	98%	648
Antonio Inoki	11/30/1979		0-0	na	6
Bob Backlund	12/17/1979		55-9-7 and 9 other	86%	1470
Iron Sheik	12/26/1983		36-4-1 and 4 other	90%	28
Hulk Hogan	1/23/1984		3-0	100%	1474
Andre the Giant	2/5/1988		2-4 and 1 other	33%	0
Randy Savage	3/27/1988		78-43-1 and 16 other	64%	371
Hulk Hogan	4/2/1989		82-5 and 10 other	94%	364
Ultimate Warrior	4/1/1990		103-0 and 18 other	100%	293
Sgt Slaughter	1/19/1991		79-2-1 and 9 other	98%	64
Hulk Hogan	3/24/1991		58-10 and 6 other	85%	248
Undertaker	11/27/1991		46-80-1 and 17 other	37%	6
Hulk Hogan	12/3/1991		49-7 and 6 other	88%	1
Ric Flair	1/19/1992		38-37-1 and 7 other	51%	77
Randy Savage	4/5/1992		75-6 and 12 other	93%	149
Ric Flair	9/1/1992		21-98 and 6 other	18%	41
Bret Hart	10/12/1992		109-7-2 and 9 other	94%	174
Yokozuna	4/4/1993		47-25 and 6 other	65%	0
Hulk Hogan	4/4/1993		3-0	100%	70
Yokozuna	6/13/1993		72-35 and 9 other	67%	280
Bret Hart	3/20/1994		79-16-1 and 4 other	83%	248
Bob Backlund	11/23/1994		27-14 and 1 other	66%	3
Kevin Nash	11/26/1994		64-29-7 and 3 other	69%	358
Bret Hart	11/19/1995		62-4 and 1 other	94%	133
Shawn Michaels	3/31/1996		48-6-3 and 1 other	89%	231
Sid Vicious	11/17/1996		68-5-2 and 2 other	93%	63
Shawn Michaels	1/19/1997		89-8-2 and 2 other	92%	25
Bret Hart	2/16/1997		26-15	63%	1
Sid Vicious	2/17/1997		83-16-4 and 2 other	84%	34
Undertaker	3/23/1997		75-17-5 and 2 other	82%	133
Bret Hart	8/3/1997		23-36-2	39%	98
Shawn Michaels	11/9/1997		6-5-4	55%	140
Steve Austin	3/29/1998		51-1-1 and 1 other	98%	91
Glen Jacobs	6/28/1998		48-35-5 and 2 other	58%	1
Steve Austin	6/29/1998		76-3-6 and 2 other	96%	90
Rock	11/15/1998		45-52-7 and 1 other	46%	44
Mick Foley	12/29/1998		27-67-7 and 1 other	29%	26
Rock	1/24/1999		51-56-6	48%	2
Mick Foley	1/26/1999		32-61-6	34%	20
Rock	2/15/1999		50-57-5	47%	41
Steve Austin	3/28/1999		51-5-4	91%	56
Undertaker	5/23/1999		42-28-6	60%	36
Steve Austin	6/28/1999		53-4-4	93%	55
Mick Foley	8/22/1999		52-12-6	81%	1
Triple H	8/23/1999		24-65-8	27%	22
Vince McMahon	9/14/1999		4-1-2	80%	6
Triple H	9/26/1999		27-66-6	29%	49
Big Show	11/14/1999		58-35-14	62%	50
Triple H	1/3/2000		29-52-11	36%	118
Rock	4/30/2000		63-24-9	72%	21
Triple H	5/21/2000		31-46-6	40%	35
Rock	6/25/2000		58-25-8	70%	119
Kurt Angle	10/22/2000		37-58-2	39%	126
Rock	2/25/2001		56-19-4	75%	35
Steve Austin	4/1/2001		40-6-8	87%	175
Kurt Angle	9/23/2001		42-38-4	53%	15
Steve Austin	10/8/2001		24-28-3	46%	62
Chris Jericho	12/9/2001		56-40-1	58%	98
Triple H	3/17/2002		19-9-1	68%	35
Hulk Hogan	4/21/2002		5-2-1	71%	28
Undertaker	5/19/2002		38-22-2	63%	63
Rock	7/21/2002		17-7	71%	35
Brock Lesnar	8/25/2002		53-21	72%	84
Big Show	11/17/2002		34-47-4	42%	28
Kurt Angle	12/15/2002		28-67-2	29%	105
Brock Lesnar	3/30/2003		61-7-5	90%	119
Kurt Angle	7/27/2003		27-12	69%	51
Brock Lesnar	9/16/2003		45-24-3	65%	152
Eddie Guerrero	2/15/2004		44-28	61%	133
JBL	6/27/2004		37-31	54%	280
John Cena	4/3/2005		48-1-1	98%	280
Edge	1/8/2006		13-31-4	30%	21
Edge	1/8/2006		13-31-4	30%	21
John Cena	1/29/2006		81-9-1	90%	133
Rob Van Dam	6/11/2006		28-23	55%	22
John Cena	9/17/2006		75-21-4	78%	380
Randy Orton	10/7/2007		18-58-2	24%	0
Triple H	10/7/2007		7-2	78%	0
Triple H	4/27/2008		62-8-1 and 1 other	89%	210
Edge	11/23/2008		6-35-1	15%	21
Jeff Hardy	12/14/2008		67-24-3	74%	42
Edge	1/25/2009		10-33-1	23%	21
Triple H	2/15/2009		66-11-3 and 1 other	86%	70
Randy Orton	4/26/2009		14-54-3	21%	42
Batista	6/7/2009		26-11	70%	2
Randy Orton	6/15/2009		14-59-7	19%	90
John Cena	9/13/2009		76-7-4	92%	21
Randy Orton	10/4/2009		16-64-9	20%	21
John Cena	10/25/2009		81-12-4	87%	49
Sheamus	12/13/2009		40-8-3	83%	70
John Cena	2/21/2010		71-11-2	87%	0
Batista	2/21/2010		18-37-3	33%	35
John Cena	3/28/2010		75-13-2	85%	84
Sheamus	6/20/2010		27-58-4	32%	91
Randy Orton	9/19/2010		52-19-6	73%	64
Miz	11/22/2010		40-42-4	49%	160
John Cena	5/1/2011		70-17-3	80%	77
CM Punk	7/17/2011		17-77-1	18%	8
Rey Mysterio Jr	7/25/2011		66-12-2	85%	0
John Cena	7/25/2011		90-17-2	84%	20
CM Punk	8/14/2011		15-72-7	17%	0
Alberto Del Rio	8/14/2011		26-65-1	29%	35
John Cena	9/18/2011		98-13-9	88%	14
Alberto Del Rio	10/2/2011		26-75-1	26%	49
CM Punk	11/20/2011		33-45-8	42%	434
Rock	1/27/2013		0-0	na	70
John Cena	4/7/2013		32-3-1	91%	133

This image is a detailed record
of the 6 months prior winning the belt.

Observations:

• This only covers the WWWF/WWF/WWE Championship which is now typically considered the RAW brand belt.  It does not include the "World Heavyweight Title" (Smackdown!) history.
• The 1963-1987 era is so separated from the 1988-2013 era.  There were six reigns over 500 hundred days in the WWWF/WWF era dominated by Sammartino, Morales, Backlund and Hogan. Meanwhile the new average title reign drops to under 90 days (per capita) from 1989-2013.

Let's focus on the last 25 years (1988-2013)

winning %	examples	avg reign
below 10%	5	32
20%	12	34
30%	8	62
40%	8	101
50%	7	90
60%	14	118
70%	10	69
80%	20	90
above 90%	17	129

There is a general trend that champions with a higher winning percentage prior to obtaining the belt do have longer reigns.  However, the counter-example is found in CM Punk's modern record-making 400+ day reign which was on the heels of a very low winning percentage (42%).