tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19729522.post2754441157933812941..comments2024-03-28T04:33:15.904-07:00Comments on Indeed Wrestling: WWE CFO George Barrios at the Deutsche Bank 23rd Annual Media, Internet and Telecom ConferenceIndeed Wrestlinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04352453911935389813noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19729522.post-41359720461984055712015-03-11T14:11:50.027-07:002015-03-11T14:11:50.027-07:00Very much appreciate your answering questions.
10...Very much appreciate your answering questions.<br /><br />100-200k probably was way too high, but I was just trying to get Network subs closer to the traditional domestic/international PPV percentages.<br /><br />They'll spin whatever happens to be "exactly what we wanted/expected" (well, Vince might let slip his true feelings, but not Barrios) in terms of peak and drop, but your answer makes a fair amount of sense.Jimnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19729522.post-44343512679151966832015-03-11T13:30:40.083-07:002015-03-11T13:30:40.083-07:001. No. There's been absolutely no clarity as t...1. No. There's been absolutely no clarity as to the timing of expansion. We know that the OSN deal in the Middle East is starting in time for WrestleMania. The Canada expansion continues. Honestly, I think Germany, Italy and Japan may get the WWE Network this year. I wouldn't hold my breathe for India or China. Thailand & Malaysia are hard to say. They shelled out a lot of money for the TV rights so WWE might be willing to stay out there so they don't cause problems. Timing has been completely opaque.<br /><br />2. If I recall from the original presentation, they originally thought that International subs would be somewhere around 25%-33% of the total number of subs. Barrios said that the 1M was about 15% int'l. The challenge is figuring out whether the difference there (which is related to the historical PPV domestic/int'l split) is just international subscribers masquerading as domestic subscribers or whether it just means that OTT services aren't as popular overseas as the PPV availability. I use UK as my benchmark. They are the largest revenue market outside of the US. Right now, they are the #2 largest customer base for the WWE Network. They were added in January right before the Royal Rumble. WWE grew 85k int'l subscribers between 12/31/14 and 1/27/15. So, let's say UK around 70,000. I have difficulty believing that Germany or Italy or Thailand is going to come close to 100,000 new subs. Perhaps the combination of all of them is 50k. <br /><br />3. I think WWE is going to do everything in their power to announce as high a number as possible for 3/31/15. They want that number because they can brag about it for a long time. They have been able to wave their hands and confuse investors when it comes to the six-digit churn every quarter (144k/255k/251k for Q2-Q4). They'd rather hit an artifical peak and report record WWE Network OIBDA and Revenue rather than just have flat numbers all year. Why? Because they've already been selling the whole "we're going to be flat" narrative, so I think they'd rather prove that they can get closer to growing to 2M (and gaining all those names and emails and views) than just admit defeat that this service only has a limited appeal and their "affinity to WWE" numbers are pretty much bunk.<br /><br />Hope that helps! Those are my thoughts.<br /><br />Chris Harrington @mookieghanaMookiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12823006363395193600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19729522.post-23505124483219677982015-03-11T12:53:34.882-07:002015-03-11T12:53:34.882-07:00Even Barrios Bingo isn't enough to get me to s...Even Barrios Bingo isn't enough to get me to sit through his usual shtick (maybe he sounded exhausted because he repeats the same concepts/buzzwords everywhere he goes- "12 events" is one of my favorites), so thanks for covering this.<br /><br />1- Did he give any idea of a date for Network expansion to the various countries you listed? Was there even anything as specific as "by the end of this year" or was it just "some point in the future"?<br /><br />2- Has WWE projected how many Network subs they expect to average for each of the countries you listed within a year of the Network launching there? I doubt they'd save the Network, but even 100-200k steady subs would be rather nice.<br /><br />3- Just like TV ratings, the Network numbers will "ebb and flow": the issue is how much it ebbs and from how high a mark the ebbing begins. Assuming both scenarios end with the same yearly average (say, 1.2M), do you think Wall Street would react better to (1) a higher 'Mania peak (e.g. 1.5M subs) but a larger drop during the year (e.g. even below 1M at points) OR (2) a lower 'Mania peak (1.25M) but a smaller drop (e.g. stay comfortably above 1M for the who year)?Jimnoreply@blogger.com