Monday, April 18, 2016

1989 Wrestling Observer Newsletter Stars

1989 WON Stars

I've been combing through the old issues of the WON looking for matches which Dave has rated. There's a lot of show results (12/17 in Lancaster, CA drew around 75 fans as Jack Armstrong pinned Mando Guerrero **3/4) where star ratings are given, but most of these are based on live reports from fans. I decided not to include those. If there is a match "missing" from the order, it's either because there was no rating given or that page of the WON was missing. The bolded date before the matches is the WON issue where the review was found. There is a suspicious lack of Japanese Television match ratings. Special thanks to Cory for all of his research and OCR work!

01/02/1989

NWA Starrcade (12/26/88)
1. Steve Williams & Kevin Sullivan downed The Fantastics to capture the US tag team championship in 15:50. ***1/2
2. Jim Cornette's Midnight Express downed Paul E Dangerously's Midnight Express in 17:26. ***1/4
3. The Russian Assassins retained their masks and Paul Jones' job by defeating Ivan Koloff & Junkfood Dog in 6:47. *1/2
4. Rick Steiner pinned Mike Rotunda in 17:59 to win the NWA TV title, They had lots of heat early and the execution between the two was great, although the pacing was more deliberate than in the earlier matches during the early part. ***1/2
5. Barry Windham retained his US title beating Bam Bam Bigelow via count out in 16:17 in a match which showed that Windham is the heir apparent to Ric Flair's long-time role as the best all-around wrestler in the business. ***3/4
6. Road Warriors retained their NWA tag team titles losing via disqualification to Dusty Rhodes & Sting in 11:20. **3/4
7. Ric Flair retained the NWA title with a pinfall victory, yes, you read that correctly, over Lex Luger in 30:59. ****1/2 (This match easily beats out the Lawler vs Kerry match as the best PPV event of the year--actually if Windham's match had a better finish, it would have topped the Lawler vs Kerry match as well)

01/16/1989

NBC aired a WWF Saturday Night Main Event on 1/7 (taped 12/7 in Tampa)
1. Brutus Beefcake beat Ron Bass in a hair vs hair match in 7:40. *1/2
3. Anabolic Warrior pinned Honkeytonk Man with a flying tackle in 5:01. *1/4
4. Tito Santana pinned Red Rooster (Terry Taylor). **3/4
5. Curt Hennig pinned Koko Ware with a fisherman suplex that they are calling the perfect plex. *

01/23/1989

WWF Royal Rumble 1989
1. The Hart Foundation & Jim Duggan won two of three falls from Dino Bravo & The Rougeau Brothers. **1/4
2. Rockin Robin pinned Judy Martin in 6:24 to retain the WWF womens title. *1/4
3. Now it was time for the posedown between the Anabolic Warrior and Rick "The Stick" Rude. -* (I'd call it a dud except I know people who found this thing severely taxing)
4. Haku earned to right to be called "King" by pinning Harley Race in 9:01 after a thrust kick. DUD
5. John Studd won the Royal Rumble in 64:53. (no stars listed)

The NWA was in town the night before at the Kaiser Convention Center in Oakland  
1. Mike Golden pinned CW Bergstrom with a small package after a poorly-timed foot to the face. DUD
3. Dick Murdoch pinned Ray Candy in 5:05. -*
4. Lex Luger & Michael Hayes (subbing for Dusty Rhodes, nobody noticed nor complained) & Rick Steiner downed The Road Warriors & Paul Ellering in 12:33. ***
5. Ric Flair pinned Sting in 29:38 to retain the NWA title. ***1/2
6. Finally we had the 7:30 version of the Poseiden Adventure Bunkhouse Stampede. DUD

02/13/1989

Giant Baba promoted a television taping on 2/2 in Kansas City in conjunction with Bob Geigel's Central States promotion at the Kansas City Memorial Hall. (Dave attended the show enroute to Philadelphia)
1. Bobby Jaggers, sporting short brown hair and looking like he had swallowed most of Dunlap, Kansas, pinned Ric McCord in 8:31 after an elbow drop after McCord missed a monkey flip. 1/4*
2. Tiger Mask pinned Tommy Sharpe in 8:47 after a splash off the top ropes. 3/4*
3. Dory & Terry Funk downed Doug Somers & Gary Young in 10:28 when Terry made Young submit to the Texas cloverleaf hold (similar to the scorpion deathlock). ***
4. Genichiro Tenryu pinned Bill Irwin in 9:24. *3/4
5. Akio Sato pinned Curtis Hughes, who subbed for Kerry Von Erich who no-showed for the third time in a row that he was booked in this town. *1/4
6. Rock & Roll Express went to a 30 minute draw With the British Bulldogs with Pat O'Connor as the special referee. **3/4
7. Jumbo Tsuruta & Yoshiaki Yatsu captured the PWF World tag team titles beating Stan Hansen & Terry Gordy in 16:37. ***1/2
8. After all that action, poor Mike George and Steve Ray had to follow it up battling for George's "World" title. **

Saturday night we wound up in the Philadelphia Civic Center for "NWA Suicide Tour '89." 
 1. Butch Reed pinned Steven Casey in 11:37 after a shoulderblock off the top rope. I didn't watch the match closely but everyone I talked with said it was a 12 minute long coma and worth negative several stars.
2. Junkfood Dog & Michael Hayes downed Dennis Condrey & Randy Rose in 12:43 when Hayes pinned Rose after a cross bodyblock. *
3. Rick Steiner retained his TV title beating Russian Assassin #2 (Vladimir Victory) in 11:17 with a belly-to-belly suplex. -*
4. Lex Luger pinned Commando Ray Candy with a sunset flip in 14:06. -**
5. Abdullah the Butcher, who was advertised as being part of the six-man semi-main event, instead destroyed Bob Bradley in 4:02 of a squash. *14
6. Road Warriors & Paul Ellcring downed Kevin Sullivan & Steve Williams & Mike Rotunda in 15:49 when Animal pinned Sullivan after a clothesline. *14
7. Sting & Eddie Gilbert downed Ric Flair & Barry Windham in 24:01. ***1/4

03/01/1989

NWA Chi-Town Rumble 
1. Michael Hayes pinned Russian Assassin #1 (even though Dave Sheldon had been Russian #1 all along, this was Jack Victory as Sheldon was either fired or quit earlier in the week). *1/2
2. Sting pinned Butch Reed with a sunset flip coming into the ring at 20:07. 1/2*
3. It picked up from here, as Jim Cornette & his Midnight Express of Bobby Eaton & Stan Lane downed Paul E Dangerously and his substitute Now Original Midnight Express of Jack Victory & Randy Rose. ***1/4
4. Mike Rotunda regained the TV title from Rick Steiner in 16:21. *1/2
5. Lex Luger won the US title from Barry Windham in 10:43. ***3/4
6. Road Warriors retained the NWA tag titles beating Steve Williams & Kevin Sullivan in 8:27. **3/4
7. Steamboat pinned Flair in 23:18 to win the NWA title. *****

Quickly, we take you back to WWF Saturday night at the Rosemont Horizon. 
1. Ron Garvin pinned Boris Zhukov after a flying bodypress off the top rope. Since I wasn't there, this was committee graded at 1.39 stars.
2. John Studd and Akeem went to a double count out in 6:05. Graded at negative 1.64 stars, only because it was so short. It could have been a lot worse.
3. Rick Rude pinned Brutus Beefcake using the ropes for leverage. *1/2
4. Curt Hennig pinned Hercules in 11:14 when Hercules did a back suplex but Hennig lifted his shoulder at two (see Windham vs Luger two nights later). *1/4
5. Randy Savage pinned Badnews Brown in a non-title Harlem Street Fight in 4:53. *(simply for noise)
6. Bret Hart beat Honkeytonk Man via DQ in 10:27. *1/4
7. Bushwackers beat Rougeaus in 12:48 of a match which seemed like it lasted at least 30 minutes. -**
8. Hulk Hogan downed Big Bossman in 8:46 by getting out of the cage. **1/2

And now we head to Cleveland on 2/15 for NWA Clash of the Champions V.
1. Jim Cornette's Midnight Express downed The Russian Assassins in 13:14. 1/2* (only for the finish)
2. Butch Reed pinned Steven Casey in 17:36 after a flying shoulderblock. -*

04/10/1989

WWF WrestleMania V
1. Hercules pinned Haku in 6:57 when Hercules used the back suplex, both guys had their shoulders down for two but Hercules raised his at the two count so Baku was counted down for the pin. 1/2*
2. The Twin Towers (Big Bossman & Akeem) downed the Rockers (Shawn Michaels & Marty Janetty) in 8:02 when Akeem pinned Michaels after a big splash. *3/4 (mainly because of lack of heat because it was an average match otherwise)
3. Ted DiBiase went to a double count out with Brutus Beefcake in 10:01. *3/4
4. The Bushwackers downed the Rougeaus in 5:10 after a double stomach-breaker on Raymond. -****
5. Mr Perfect (Curt Hennig) pinned The Blue Blazer (Owen Hart) in 5:38 with a fisherman suplex. **1/4
6. Demolition retained the WWF tag team titles beating Powers of Pain & Mr. DUD
7. Dino Bravo pinned Ron Garvin in 3:48 with a side body drop. DUD
8. The Brainbusters (Tully Blanchard & Arn Anderson) downed Rick Martel & Tito Santana in 9:17 with Santana getting pinned after an awesome looking stuff piledriver. **1/2
9. Jake Roberts beat Andre the Giant via DQ in 9:44. -*** (would have been even lower except the finish was almost interesting)
10. The Hart Foundation (Bret Hart & Jim Neidhart) downed Honkeytonk Man & Greg Valentine in 7:40 when Bret Hart pinned Honkey after hitting him with Jimmy Hart's megaphone. **1/4
11. In what was a lot better in reality than it sounds on paper, Rick Rude captured the Intercontinental title from the Anabolic Warrior in 9:36 when Bobby Heenan tripped Warrior as he tried a suplex and Rude fell on top for the pin. **1/2
12. Jim Duggan and Badnews Brown went to a double disqualification in 3:49. DUD
13. Red Rooster (Terry "Requiem for a heavyweight" Taylor) pinned Bobby Heenan in 27 seconds after Heenan missed a block into the buckles. DUD
14. Then came the biggie and in a new Hogan record of 17:51, the mighty Hulkster captured the WWF title for the second time using the dreaded legdrop on Randy Savage. **3/4

NWA Rajun Cajun Clash on 4/2 from the Superdome,
1. The Samoan Swat Team downed the Midnight Express in 20:32 when Fatu hit Bobby Eaton with the telephone and got the pin. ***
2.The F-----' Great Muta pinned Steven Casey in 8:11 with the moonsault press. ***4 ( for an incredible one man show)
3. Junkfood Dog pinned Butch Reed in 9:56. -*
4. Bob Orton pinned Dick Murdoch in 9:33 when Murdoch went for the brainbuster, but Gary Hart tripped Murdoch and Orton fell on top for the pin. 1/2*
5. Steve Williams & Mike Rotunda captured the NWA tag team titles from the Road Warriors in 11:40 when Williams pinned Hawk in a screw-job finish from new heel ref Teddy Long. ***1/4
6. Ranger Ross downed the Iron Sheik via DQ in 1:56. -1/2*
7. Eddie Gilbert & Rick Steiner retained the US tag team titles beating Dan Spivey & Kevin Sullivan in 3:51 when Gilbert pinned Sullivan after hitting him with Missy Hyatt's Gucci purse. *3/4
8. Rick Steamboat retained the NWA title beating Ric Flair in a two of three fall match which went 55:32. *****

05/15/1989

NWA WRESTLE WAR '89
1. The Great Muta (Keiji Muto) pinned Doug Gilbert in 3:03 with the moonsault press. **
2. Butch Reed pinned Ranger Ross with the shoulderblock off the top rope in 6:59. 1/4*
3. Dick Murdoch pinned Bob Orton in a bullrope match in 4:54. 1/2*
4. The Dynamic Dudes (Shane Douglas & Johnny Ace) upset the Samoan Swat Team in 11:02. **3/4
5. Michael Hayes won the US title from Lex Luger in 16:06. ***
6. Sting blitzed the Iron Sheik in 2:12, making him submit to the scorpion to retain the TV title. DUD
8. Road Warriors beat Steve Williams & Mike Rotunda via DQ in 6:06 in a match which resulted in the NWA tag team titles being held up. ***1/2
9. Eddie Gilbert & Rick Steiner retained the US tag titles beating Sullivan & Spivey in 6:41. **1/2

WWF House Show in Nashville the night before Wrestle War
1. Greg Valentine pinned The Blue Blazer (Owen Hart) when Blazer came off the top rope with a flying body press and Valentine reversed it, holding the trunks for the pin. Told it was average.
2. They did the angle where Rick Martel attacks Tito Santana before the match and takes out his knee, and the bout is postponed until later in the show.
3. Bret Hart drew Mr Perfect (Curt Hennig). **3/4
4. Hillbilly Jim beat Honkeytonk Man via DQ. -**3/4 (yes, it really was that bad)
5. Anabolic Warrior beat Rick Rude via count out for the IC title in the match which had the most heat of the card. **1/4
6. Red Rooster (Terry Taylor) pinned Brooklyn Brawler (Steve Lombardi). 1/4*
7. Martel pinned Santana in three minutes with his feet on the ropes. *
8. Jim Powers pinned Mike Sharpe after a powerslam. **1/4
9. Demolition beat Twin Towers by DQ to keep the WWF tag titles. **
10. Randy Savage pinned Brutus Beefcake after Sherri Martel threw powder in Beefcake's eyes.
11. Jake Roberts cradled Ted DiBiase in a match that seemed like it would never end. *1/4

06/05/1989

Titan also ran its latest WWF Saturday Night's Main Event on 5/27 (taped in Des Moines about a month back).
1. Jim Duggan beat Rick Rude via count out so Rude kept the Intercontinental title. **3/4
2. Randy Savage pinned Jim Neidhart in five minutes. ***1/4
3. Hulk Hogan beat Big Bossman in a cage match to keep the WWF title. ***3/4
4. Tully Blanchard & Arn Anderson beat Demolition via DQ so the latter duo keeps the WWF tag titles. ***1/4

06/12/1989

NWA Oakland House Show
1. Dynamic Dudes (Shane Douglas & Johnny Ace) beat Jack Victory & The Raider (Doug Gilbert) in 7:56 with the double slingshot back suplex on Raider. *1/4
2. Butch Reed pinned Ranger Ross with an elbow drop off the middle rope in 6:05. *1/2
3. Steve Williams destroyed a short, fat guy named Tony Garcia in 1:01 with the stampede. *
4. Dick Murdoch pinned Bill Irwin in 11:06. Boring bout.
5. What started out as a single match with Scott Steiner vs Mike Rotunda turned out as a tag when Rick Steiner came down after two minutes and Kevin Sullivan got involved. **3/4
6. Lex Luger pinned Michael Hayes in a Bad Street Match in 10:21. **1/2
7. Road Warriors and Samoan Swat Team went to a double count out in 2:52 and after which they brawled to the back. *
8. Rick Steamboat beat the Great Muta via DQ in 22:54 when Gary Hart interfered. ***

NWA Stockton House Show
1. Dudes beat Victory & Raider in 7:30 with the same finish as the night before. **3/4
2. Reed pinned Ross after a legdrop off the middle rope in 7:00. **
3. Murdoch pinned Irwin in 13:50. **1/4
4. The Steiner brothers downed Sullivan & Rotunda in 13:20 when Rick pinned Sullivan with an inside cradle. ***1/2
5. Steamboat beat Muta via DQ in 10:55 when Gary Hart pulled down the top rope and Steamboat went over it. ***1/2
6. Road Warriors and Samoan Swat Team went to their 2:50 double count out brawl. *1/4
7. Steve Williams pinned Hayes in 17:25. *

06/26/1989

Clash of the Champions VII: Guts and Glory
(Missing pages in this WON issue which have rest of the show)
11. Ricky Steamboat beat Terry Funk via DQ in 14 minutes. ****1/4(rating is for a combination of both the match and the ensuing angle)

New Japan . TV results: 5/27 (taped 5/25 in Osaka):
  1. Habieli Victashev, the Soviet champion in sambo wrestling, beat Takahiro Iizuka by submission in the fourth round. *1/2 2. Riger pinned Hiroshi Hase to win the jr. ***3/4
3. Selman Hashimikov beat Big Van Vader to win the IWGP title. 1/2*
4. Inoki beat Shota Chochyashivili with a second round submission in the Egg Dome rematch. DUD

New Japan . TV results: 6/10
6/10 television results:
1. Victor Zangiev made Osamu Kido submit to a kneelock after two belly-to-belly suplexes.  *1/2
 2. Riki Choshu pinned Vladimir Berkovich, or actually made him submit with the scorpion deathlock after a Saito suplex and lariat. Bad. 1/2*
3. Hashimikov pinned Masa Saito with the Northern Light suplex. Match was like an amateur match for the first five minutes and looked legit. *3/4.

All Japan Television results: 5/21 (taped 5/20 Nagoya): 
1. Furnas & Kroffat beat Takagi & Takano when Kroffat pinned Takagi after a DDT from the middle rope. **1/2
2. Foot Loose beat Davey Boy & Johnny Smith. *
3. Dynamite Kid pinned Nakano after a head-butt off the top rope. *
4. Tsuurta & Yatsu kept the tag belts beating Slater & Spivey. ***

All Japan Television results: 5/28
1. Kid & Smith beat Kroffat & Furnas when Kid pinned Kroffat after a head-butt off the top rope. **1/4
2. Spivey pinned Takagi with a DDT. *
3. Tsuruta & Yatsu best Foot Loose. ***1/2

All Japan Television results: 6/4 (taped 5/24): 
1. Tenryu & Foot Loose beat Spivey & Furnas & Kroffat in 17 minutes when Tenryu pinned Furnas after a power bomb. ****1/2

07/31/1989

NWA The Great American Bash (1989)
1. The card opened with a two-ring "King of the Hill" Battle Royal. ***
2. Brian Pillman pinned Bill Irwin in 10:18 when he leaped off the top rope in one ring and flew to the other ring onto Irwin for the pin. **1/2
3. The Skyscrapers beat The Dynamic Dudes (Shane Douglas & Johnny Ace) in a 9:14 squash match which was the only bad match of the show. *
4. Jim Cornette beat Paul E Dangerously in the Tuxedo Street Fight in a marathon 6:22. *3/4
5. Rick & Scott Steiner won a tornado match beating Mike Rotunda & Kevin Sullivan in 4:42. **1/2
6. Sting and the Great Muta went to a no decision in 8:40 in a television title match. ***1/4 (would have been rated higher except for the lack of explanation and bad execution of the finish)
7. Lex Luger beat Ricky Steamboat via DQ in 10:26 to retain the US title. ****1/4
8. The babyface fivesome of The Road Warriors & Midnight Express & Steve Williams beat the fivesome of The Samoan Swat Team & The Freebirds in 22:18 of a War Games when Hawk made Jim Garvin submit to a hangman hold. ****
9. Ric Flair made his return to the ring after the second longest ring absence of his career and pinned Terry Funk in 17:23 to retain the NWA title. ****1/2 (Note: I'm told that if you include the post-match antics, that I couldn't see live, that this was a five star).

We also attended an NWA show on 7/22 in Philadelphia 
1. Big Al Greene & Ron Simmons beat Scott Hall & Joey Maggs in 8:30 when Simmons pinned Maggs after a shoulderblock from the middle ropes. *
2. Norman the Lunatic pinned Ranger Ross in 6:21. 1/4*
3. The Skyscrapers beat Johnny & Davey Rich in 7:40 when they used a double power bomb on Davey. * (the star is strictly for the one bump)
4. Dynamic Dudes beat New Zealand Militia in 6:20 when Shane Douglas pinned Jack Victory with a cross bodyblock. **1/2
5. Mike Rotunda pinned Scott Steiner in a suplex match even though Steiner's foot w4s on the popes during the pin in 5:38. **1/2
6. Kevin Sullivan pinned Rick Steiner in an incredible brawl for 5:10. ***1/2
7. Great Muta pinned Eddie Gilbert in 11:20 in a Coal Miners Glove match. ***1/2
8. Lex Luger beat Ricky Steamboat via DQ in 14:10 in a US title match in a match that was even better than their PPV match. ****1/2
9. Sting beat Terry Funk in a no DQ match by pinning Bill Irwin in 14:35. **** (would have been rated higher except for the finish)
10. Road Warriors & Steve Williams & Midnight Express beat Freebirds & Samoan Swat Team in 16:15 of a Bad Street match. ***3/4

08/07/1989
The WWF ran its Saturday Night Main event on 7/29, taped on 7/18 in Worcester, MA.
1. Hulk Hogan pinned Honkeytonk Man in 6:00 to keep the WWF title. 3/4*
2. Jimmy Snuka pinned Greg Valentine in 3:00. 1/2*
3. Brutus Beefcake beat Randy Savage via DQ in a (surprise, surprise) great match. ***3/4
4. Tully Blanchard & Arn Anderson won the WWF tag titles from Demolition in a two of three fall match. ***1/2

08/21/1989
The WWF rolled into town this past week for television tapings in Oakland and Fresno
1. Bore-us Zhukov pinned Mark Young in the opener. *;
2. The Widow Maker (Barry Windham) beat Red Rooster (Terry Taylor) via count out. **1/4;
3. Ted DiBiase beat Tim Evans with the sleeper.
4. The Rockers, who had Tito Santana in their corner, beat The Black Knight (Billy Anderson) & Tim Patterson.
5. Koko Ware, with blonde and blue hair, pinned Greg Valentine.
6. Rick Martel, accompanied by the Rougeaus, pinned Jerry Monti with the old Bombs Away kneedrop off the top rope.
7. Dusty Rhodes pinned Barry Horowitz.
8. Tully Blanchard & Arn Anderson beat Stephan DeLeon & Louis Spicoli with a stuff piledriver;
9. Anabolic Warrior beat Steve Vega.
10. In a Prime Time Wrestling match, Curt "Mr Perfect" Hennig went to a 20 minute draw With Santana. *1/4 (only because Hennig took some outrageous bumps);
11. Widow Maker pinned Dan Brazil with a superplex.
12. Dino Bravo & Honkeytonk Man beat The Hart Foundation via DQ. *1/2
13. Widow Maker pinned Spicoli.
14. Bushwackers beat Peter Ketchum & Don Stevens.
15. Badnews Brown pinned Jim Gorman;
16. Jim Duggan pinned Ed Vargas, who those of you who have bad dreams that were reality may remember as former AWA superstar Rocky Mountain Thunder.
17. Well, the delay was more exciting than the next match where Ted DiBiase pinned Hillbilly Jim on PTW. Almost all stalling till the finish. 1/2* (because DiBiase took one really good bump off the top rope);
18. Rougeaus beat Jim Evans & Dennis Mirto. The Rougeaus song is a hoot;
19. Ron Garvin (newly reinstated as an active wrestler by Jack Tunney) used his dreaded NWA finishing move, the KO punch on The Intruder.
20. Jimmy Snuka pinned Mike Luka;
21. Haku pinned Riki "Power Bomb" Ataki. Haku gave Ataki a chance to show some stuff;
22. Warrior pinned Andre in about 20 seconds after three clotheslines.
23. Bushwackers beat Blanchard & Anderson via DQ in a title match. The execution stunk but the "story" of the match with the near falls was good. Heels DQ'd for double teaming *3/4;
24. Brutus Beefcake pinned Chuck Hambone. Beefcake got a lot of whistles from the crowd. Unfortunately, the whistles were all from guys;
25. Demolition beat Zhukov & Jake "The Milkman" Millman;
26. Bossman pinned Bob Ellis (not the famous wrestler by the same name).
27. Rick Rude pinned Tim Horner in a PTW match. Very good fast-paced match with good execution. Easily the best thing on the card and Horner was the best worker on the card. ***;
28. Hercules beat Darryl Nickel;
29. Powers of Pain beat Tom Stone & Dale Wolfe (used to be Dusty Wolfe but nobody can be called Dusty here except for the Dream).
30. Rhodes pinned Bossman in five minutes after an elbow drop. DUD;
31. Randy Savage beat Hulk Hogan via count out in eight minutes. **

08/28/1989

The NWA show at the UIC Pavilion
1. The Ding Dongs (Richard Sartain & Greg Evans) beat Big Al Greene & Trent Knight in 7:45 when Ding picked up Dong and dropped him legdrop style onto Knight for the pin. *
2. Ron Simmons pinned Brad Anderson (son of former pro wrestler Gene Anderson) in 5:25 with Arn Anderson's spinebuster move. *1/2
3. Brian Pillman pinned Norman the Maniac (no longer Norman the Lunatic, he's been promoted) in 5:05. **
4. Rick & Scott Steiner downed the New Zealand Militia (Jack Victory & Rip Morgan) in 11:15 when Scott pinned Morgan. ***
5. Steve Williams pinned Bill Irwin in 3:45 when Irwin tried to slam him into the ring but Williams fell on top for the pin. *1/4
6. The Freebirds (Michael Hayes & Jimmy Garvin) kept the NWA tag team titles beating the Midnight Express in 12:24. **1/4
7. Sting beat Great Muta via DQ in 9:11 in a match for the held up TV title, which with the DQ, is still held up. *1/4
8. Lex Luger kept the US title pinning Tommy Rich using the trunks in 11:15. **1/2
9. Ric Flair pinned Terry Funk in 18:58 to keep the NWA title in another incredible brawl. ****1/2
10. Road Warriors beat Samoan Swat Team in a cage match. ***1/4

09/03/1989

WWF's Summer Slam '89
1. The Brain Busters (Tully Blanchard & Arn Anderson) won a non-title tag team match from the Hart Foundation (Bret Hart & Jim Neidhart) in 16:23. **
2. Dusty Rhodes pinned Honkeytonk Man in 9:36. -** (that's giving it one star for the finish because it was negative three at that point)
3. Mr Perfect pinned Red Rooster in 3:21 with the perfect-plex. 1/2* (only for one nice high spot early; finish came out of nowhere and was a dud)
4. Rougeaus & Rick Martel beat Rockers & Tito Santana in 14:58. ***1/4
5. Anabolic Warrior pinned Rick Rude in 16:02 to win the Intercontinental title. ***1/4
6. Demolition & King Jim Duggan beat Akeem & Big Bossman & Andre the Giant in 7:23. *
7. Hercules beat Greg Valentine via DQ in 3:08. 1/2* (for the angle)
8. Ted DiBiase beat Jimmy Snuka via count out in 6:27. *1/4
9. Hulk Hogan & Brutus Beefcake beat Randy Savage & Zeus in 15:04. **1/2

09/25/1989

NWA's Clash of the Champions card from Columbia, SC 
1. The Road Warriors beat the Samoan Swat Team in 6:46. ***1/4
2. The Z-Man (Tom Zenk) beat The Cuban Assassin (Dave Sierra) with the sleeper in 3:36. 1/2*
3. Sid Vicious destroyed Ranger Ross in 1:08 with the power bomb. 1/2*
4. The Freebirds (Michael Hayes & Jim Garvin) retained the NWA tag team titles beating the Steiner brothers in 10:27. ***1/2
5. Brian Pillman pinned Norman the Maniac in 3:38 with an arm and leg crucifix takedown. Too short to be a three-star match but too good to be anything less than three stars.
6. Steve Williams pinned Mike Rotunda in 7:04. ***
7. Lex Luger pinned Tommy Rich in 10:36 in the surprise match of the night. ****
8. Ric Flair & Sting beat Dick Slater & Great Muta via disqualification in 19:16. ****1/4

NWA show in Chicago
1. Greg Evans pinned Larry Williams with a Randy Savage elbow drop off the top ropes in 8:15. DUD
2. Cuban Assassin pinned Richard Sartain in 6:00 after a backbreaker. 1/2*
3. Dynamic Dudes beat New Zealand Militia in 9:00 when Rip Morgan had Johnny Ace picked up for a bodyslam and Shane Douglas dropkicked Ace's back and he fell on top for the pin. **
4. Butch Reed pinned Scott Hall with his feet on the ropes in 11:00. -1/2*
5. Rick & Scott Steiner went to a double count out against the Skyscrapers (Sid Vicious & Danny Spivey) in 15:21. *3/4
6. Lex Luger pinned Tommy Rich in a match that wasn't scheduled on the card to begin with but they brought the two in for the show to hopefully pacify the fans because Terry Funk and Sting, two of the guys in the top two matches, weren't going to be there because of injuries. 1/2*
7. Dick Murdoch beat Great Muta via DQ in 5:30 in a TV title match. -**1/2
8. Ric Flair kept the NWA title beating Dick Slater in a death match when Slater couldn't answer the bell for the sixth fall in 18:33. ***1/2

10/23/1989

WWF Saturday Night's Main Event aired on 10/14 after being taped last month in Cincinnati.
1. Randy Savage pinned Jimmy Snuka. **1/2
2. Hulk Hogan pinned Ted DiBiase in the WWF title match. **
3. Roddy Piper pinned Haku with a belly-to-belly suplex in 3:02. *1/2
4. Rick Martel and Tito Santana went to a double disqualification. ***1/2
5. Bushwackers beat Rougeaus in 3:15 when they did the double stomach breaker on Jacques. 1/4*

11/06/1989

NWA Halloween Havoc
1. The Z-Man (Tom Zenk) pinned Mike Rotunda in 13:23 when Rotunda did a cross bodyblock off the middle rope and Zenk reversed it for the pin. 3/4*
2. The Samoan Swat Team & The Samoan Savage beat Midnight Express & Steve Williams in 18:16 when Jim Cornette collided with Stan Lane and Lane was pinned by the Savage (Sam Fatu). **3/4
3. Tommy Rich pinned Cuban Assassin with the Thesz press in 8:26. DUD
4. The Freebirds retained the NWA tag team titles beating the Dynamic Dudes in 11:28. **1/2
5. Doom (Ron Simmons & Butch Reed under masks managed by "Woman") beat Rick & Scott Steiner in 15:26 when Reed got a foreign object from Woman and put it in his mask and head-butted Rick and got the pin. **1/4
6. Lex Luger pinned Brian Pillman with a hotshot in 16:48 to retain the US title. ***1/4
7. Road Warriors beat Skyscrapers via DQ in 11:39 when the ref caught Danny Spivey using the key. **1/2
8. Ric Flair & Sting beat Terry Funk & Great Muta. ****

11/13/1989

The WWF was in Madison Square Garden on 10/28
1. Tito Santana pinned Bore-us Zhukov in 12:48 with the flying forearm. 1/2*
2. Al Perez beat The Conquistador (Jose Luis Rivera) in 10:16 after the alley-copter. -1/2*
3. Bret Hart went to a 20 minute draw with Dino Bravo in a match which lasted 18:18. DUD
4. Brooklyn Brawler beat the unmasked Jose Luis Rivera, 1 who proved to be equally terrible without the hood in 7:35. -*1/4
5. Randy Savage pinned Jim Duggan to keep the crown in 16:03. ***1/4
6. Hercules beat Akeem via count out in 11:20. -**1/4
7. Mr Perfect (Curt Hennig) pinned Jimmy Snuka with the fisherman suplex in 10:37. 1/2*
8. James, The Ultimate Chemical Freak defeated Andre, The Ultimate Genetic Freak in 21 seconds after three clotheslines. DUD
9. Bushwackers beat Powers of Pain via DQ in 7:54. 1/2*

11/27/1989

NWA Clash of the Champions/ New York Knockout
1. The Freebirds beat the Road Warriors via DQ in 5:18. DUD
2. Doom (Ron Simmons & Butch Reed) beat Tommy Rich & Eddie Gilbert in 5:15. *1/4
3. Midnight Express beat Dynamic Dudes in 9:22 when Cornette, who had stayed neutral the entire match, hit Douglas with the tennis racquet and Eaton pinned Douglas. ***1/2
4. Steve Williams pinned Super Destroyer (Jack Victory) in 1:41 with the Oklahoma Stampede. *1/2
5. Rick & Scott Steiner downed The Skyscrapers via DQ in 6:08 when Doom did a run-in. ***1/4
6. Lex Luger pinned Brian Pillman in 12:38 to retain the US title. ***3/4
7. Ric Flair made Terry Funk say "I Quit" in 18:38 of a one-of-a-kind match. *****

12/26/1989

NWA STARRCADE '89: FUTURE SHOCK
1. Rick & Scott Steiner beat Doom via count out in 12:24. **1/2
2. Lex Luger pinned Sting in 11:31. **1/4
3. Road Warriors beat Doom in 8:31 by pinfall. **
4. Ric Flair pinned the Great Muta in 1:55. **
5. The Steiners beat the Road Warriors in 7:27. ***
6. Sting pinned Muta in 8:41 with a superplex. **3/4 (mainly for the closing sequence)
7. The New Wild Samoans (Fatu--Solofa Fatu and Samoan Savage--Sam Fatu, who are actually brothers) beat Doom in 8:22. **
8. Ric Flair went to a time limit draw with Lex Luger at 17:01. ***3/4
9. Samoans beat Steiners via DQ in 14:05. ***
10. Luger beat Muta via DQ in 11:48. ***1/4
11. The tag team tournament came down to Warriors vs Samoans. -*
12. It's now down to the singles finals - Flair went for the figure four, Sting caught him in an inside cradle and got the pin at 15:54. ****1/4

Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Worked WM Attendance numbers

year   reported    actual      Diff
2009    71,617     61,617     10,000 
2010    72,219     61,093     11,126 
2011    72,744     61,661     11,083 
2012    78,363     66,500     11,863 
2013    80,676     72,000     8,676 
2014    75,167     65,000     10,167 
2015    76,976     67,000     9,976 

WWE attendance numbers occupy an interesting intersection between promotional gusto and pertinent investor information.

WRESTLEMANIA 31

Let's take an example such as WrestleMania 31.

On April 1, 2015, WWE released a press release "WRESTLEMANIA BREAKS MORE RECORDS". And I quote, "WrestleMania 31 broke the attendance record for Levi’s Stadium as 76,976 fans from all 50 states and 53 countries converged on the home of the San Francisco 49ers."

However, if you look at the KPI (Key Performance Indicators) slides there's a slightly different story:


This indicates that during Q1 2015, WWE average paid attendance was 7,400 over 73 North American shows (including WrestleMania 31). If you exclude WM31, WWE average attendance was 6,700 over 72 North American shows.

That would imply that WrestleMania 31 paid attendance was 7400x73-6700x72 = 540,200 - 482,400 = 57,800. However, this chart is using very round numbers. The w/WM # could be as high as 7499 (rounded down to 7.4) and the w/o WM # could be as low as 6650. Or it could be the 7,350 and 6,749. That gives us a range of 68,600 (high) to 50,600 (low)

Dave Meltzer has published that the actual attendance for WrestleMania 31 was 67,000 (which would imply around somewhere between 6,650-6,724 w/o WM and 7,477-7,550 w/ WM numbers) which is within the range.

What's far outside of the range would be a number like 76,000 paid attendance which would have put the w/ WM average of North American attendance in Q1 up into the 7,600-7,700 range instead of 7,400 number they reported.

However, there is (as always) caveats. WWE's press release didn't say "paid attendance". Were there possibly 10,000 papered tickets to WrestleMania 31? Possible? Yes. Likely? No.

Dave Meltzer has posted that, "Mania was set up for 66,000 last year at first. They added extra seats for 4,000 more. The people at the 49ers who run the stadium that I know joked that they actually with sales and freebies had enough to legit sellout, and then they added the bleachers and had 3,000 empties."

Furthermore, WWE's own legal filings suggested that the capacity for Levi's Stadium was 66,060. (Each year, WWE files a lawsuit against "John and Jane Does and XYZ Corporation" for trademark infringement, counterfeiting and dilution under the Lanham Act. It's a technique they've used in the past to go after people associated with the "unlawful manufacture, distribution and/or sale of counterfeit merchandise bearing unauthorized copies of WWE's registered and unregistered trademarks and service marks." I noted that in the exhibit of their lawsuit, filed 3/18/2015, WWE included a list of upcoming WWE events, including WrestleMania, with details which included building capacity.)

So, that's where we stand with modern attendance records. WWE will claim one thing on television and often back that up with a press release. They may even briefly mention it during a conference call (though I looked through last year's the Q1 and Q2 transcripts and didn't see any mention of it). I believe that WWE thinks other organizations (such as NFL) make similarly inflated attendance claims, and it's only an entertainment statistic.

WHAT DO INVESTORS CARE ABOUT

However, what matters is the actual revenue that the event generates. On that front, I believe the numbers that WWE reports. Analysts are FAR more interested in seeing the inflated live event numbers than they are about truly understanding whether the once-a-year WrestleMania attendance figure is a worked or real number.

To that end, analysts are far more interested in the details of WWE Network subscriber behavior around WrestleMania. How many people are signing up? How many are first-time subscribers people? How long do those people stick around for? How does the subscribership split between domestic and international groups? Those are the sort of datapoints that investors are hungry for. Those are the areas where you see probing questions during the conference calls.

I don't believe WWE feels any compunction to "tell the truth" about attendance numbers in any forum outside of SEC filings and possibly on conference calls. I don't think that investors are that fixated on the topic, except to note that overall North American average paid attendance has been stagnant at about 6,000/event for several years. The mega-events (SummerSlam, WrestleMania, the UK tour) may signal bright spots, but overall WWE is achieving higher live event revenue through raising ticket prices and running more events (i.e. expanding NXT touring).

WM III ATTENDANCE

When we're talking about historical attendance records, there's certainly a different dynamic at play. First of all, many of the people (like Barrios) with WWE today weren't with the company 15 or 30 years ago. Some are just going to repeat the talking points they've heard and been fed. Second of all, World Wrestling Federation (Titan Sports) was not a publicly traded company until 1999. They wouldn't see any need to "tell the truth" when it comes to attendance numbers to the outside public.

I will note that I have been surprised to find court filings by WWE which reference the allegedly worked WrestleMania III attendance number.

In the 2004 version of the WrestleMania anti-bootlegging lawsuit, the company refers to "Subsequent Wrestlemanias have occurred in such sites as the Pontiac Silverdome in Pontiac, Michigan (Wrestlemania III), which drew over 90,000 spectators" (page 5-6)

I am not a lawyer so I cannot speak to whether including a disputed fact like this a court filing has any questionable legality. My experience with reading these filings is that in the "factual background section), the company can make whatever claims they would like and it's up to others to challenge or deny them. Since this attendance fact is not highly relevant to the proceeding at hand, there really was no meaningful reason that the "fact" would be challenged. The thrust of this part was establishing that WrestleMania is a big deal and whether it's 78k or 93k, the point would stand.

Essentially, unless the lawyer filing the case knew that the report 90k+ attendance number for WM3 was an outright lie (and one specifically that had shown to be false - such as there was a deposition or an affidavit to the contrary), I would propose that it would be reasonable for them to include this statement in the filings without thinking twice they need to dig into that particular (then) 17-year-old claim.

There are cases of a pre-public WWF revealing detailed live event revenue numbers. WWF had to work with commissions and often needed to pay taxes based on live gates. For instance, during Titan Sport's battle with the State of New Jersey's boxing and wrestling media rights tax, WWF went into extreme detail about live event revenue, closed-circuit revenue, international television rights and PPV purchases of WrestleMania IV. Likewise, the Ventura royalties lawsuit revealed details of the WWF business around video-tape sales and royalties payments. I haven't found any cases that directly covered WM III in a meaningful way that would touch upon the true attendance at that time, but it's possible there was some fact disclosed in a lawsuit that would provide an enlightened discourse on this subject.

Only case that might come to mind would be something involving Hulk Hogan. However, while Terry Bollea may say something in a deposition, I truly don't trust or believe his memory when it comes to facts like what was the true attendance of WrestleMania III. In both the Ultimate Warrior and Gawker lawsuits, he's made many claims under oath which do not fit with established facts and timelines, especially around his wrestling career.

Wednesday, March 09, 2016

WWE Business 2016-2017 Survey Results

I put out a survey on Twitter with a few questions about what others thought would be appropriate goals and targets for WWE in 2016-2017.

First question was about "expertise" on WWE business.

I put respondents into three major buckets of respondents as it related their WWE Business "expertise":
  1. HIGH - "I follow WWE Business extremely closely. For instance, I am likely to read their SEC filings, listen to conference calls, check out the KPIs and monitor investor events." (8 people)
  2. MEDIUM - "I follow WWE Business closely. I sometimes listen to WWE conference calls or read reports. I will usually read good articles about WWE business." (14 people)
  3. LOW - "I occasionally follow WWE Business. Once in awhile, I will read articles or coverage of WWE business." (9 people)
While this expertise judgment is completely self-selecting, it's nice to see three large groups emerge so we can compare how they answered the questions, and create "weighted" predictions.

First, I listed fifteen different "priorities" and asked respondents to rank them as business objectives for 2016-2017.


WWE DIVISIONAL PRIORITIES

I ended up creating six scores (an average rank in each expertise and and average rank after where I threw out the min/max scores) and weighting the scores to come up with this "final" objective list:
  1. Growing number of paid domestic WWE Network subscribers
  2. Growing number of paid international WWE Network subscribers
  3. Monetization of Digital Media (advertising sales on websites, sales of various broadband & mobile content, YouTube)
  4. Expansion of International Television Rights for core Raw/Smackdown in remaining markets (outisde of major deals signed in 2014-2015)
  5. Expansion of Domestic Television Rights (adding programming such as Tough Enough, Total Divas, NXT, Superstars)
  6. Improving Licensing Revenue (license fees & royalties - video games, toys, apparel)
  7. Growing International Live Event Revenue (core WWE - adjusting dates, ticket prices, tour packages, etc)
  8. Growing revenue generated by NXT brand (touring, merchandise, etc)
  9. Growing Domestic Live Event Revenue (core WWE - adjusting dates, ticket prices, tour packages, etc)
  10. Launching WWE Network in China
  11. Growing WWEShop Revenue
  12. Outside Investment Projects (i.e. TapouT, Phunware, Tout, Marvel Ventures)
  13. Growing Venue Merchandise Revenue
  14. Growing revenue from WWE Studios (investing, producing, distributing filmed entertainment)
  15. Additional Home Entertainment Revenue (home entertainment platforms - DVD, Blu-Ray, subscription outlets)

Commentary

#1 and #2 Growing WWE Paid Subs

In all three groups of experts, Growing Paid WWE Network Subscriptions both Domestically & Internationally topped the list of priorities. 

Realistically, there's not a lot WWE can do to affect their largest revenue stream (Television Rights) and their Wall Street Cred is pretty much predicated on how many WWE Network subscribers they gain, retain and lose each quarter. 

#3 Digital Media Monetization

This was something that Medium & High Expertise voters thought of highly (rating it #3) while Low Expertise voters put it squarely in the middle (ranking it #7). WWE talks a lot about their social media numbers, but despite impressive YouTube views, the company isn't raking in very much money from this revenue stream. This may be a good example of a topic which hardcore WWE business analysts think a lot about, but more casual observers are less concerned with.

#4 Expansion of Int'l TV Rights

The "high expertise" group rated this topic #5 (elevating Domestic TV Rights to #4) while the "low expertise" rated this topic #3. Medium experts ranked this #4.
WWE largest bundle of Television Rights included US, Canada, Mexico, Thailand, UK, India and UAE. There's still deals outside of that core group, including Italy, Germany, Spain and Japan. Some of those deals are coming up for renewal. There's be well-documented problems with the CTH deal in Thailand (WWE recently secured a default judgment against the broadcaster for non-payment of rights). And of course, WWE is always looking to expand their foothold in China.

#5 Expansion of Domestic TV Rights

Total Divas on E! has been a revenue-generating endeavor for the company which has exposed elements of the WWE product to new viewers (particularly females). This year's Tough Enough outing was not a ratings hit (even with publicity generated by the Hulk Hogan racist remarks) but demonstrated that USA Network still had some appetite for excess WWE programming. With SmackDown moved to USA, it seems unlikely USA is going to expand their wrestling footprint, but it's possible that another NBCU sister network may have some interest. WWE may even find a suitor outside of the Universal family of channels. Of course, while NXT airs on the WWE Network, it does appear on terrestrial television in overseas markets. Likewise, Main Event and Superstars and along with recap shows like Afterburn and Bottom Line still air in other countries. In other words, there is additional programming that could be sold. The question is whether WWE will choose to do this.

There's a real difference of opinions among the three groups. High Expertise ranked this in the top five (#4) while medium expertise put it #6 and low expertise dropped this to #13.

#6 Improve Licensing Revenue

In January, WWE and 2K announced a multi-year extension for the video game licensing. Historically, Q1 is the big quarter for the company. It will be interesting to see whether the Divas revolution or NXT talent will generate any new opportunities for new license agreements. High expertise ranked this #6 and medium expertise ranked this #5. Low expertise dropped this topic to #9. Like Digital Media, this is a quiet revenue stream which can make a big different but isn't as flashy as TV rights or WWE Network subscriber numbers.

#7 Growing International Live Event Revenue

Interesting to see International Live Event Revenue ranked higher than Domestic Live Event Revenue as a priority. This was true with both High (#7 intl/#11 dom.) and Medium expertise groups (#8/ dom/#10 intl). Low expertise groups ranked growing Int'l & Domestic live event revenue as top five priorities (#4 dom and #5 int'l). With the worldwide expansion of the WWE Network, and the exposure of secondary touring brands such as NXT, there are new opportunities for WWE to grow this revenue stream. The WWE Network dynamic also transform the game when it comes to traditional restrictions around holding a PPV or television taping overseas.

#8 Growing NXT Revenue

Honestly, this isn't a separate priority -- it's integrated with television revenue, licensing opportunities, new merchandise lines and touring strategies. Every single WWE conference call has one constant - someone will ask about the NXT brand. Beyond a traditional developmental league, NXT has worldwide exposure. Putting this in the middle of the pack feels right - it's a sexy idea, but it's hard one to execute in a massively financially impactful way. High expertise put this at #8, medium expertise at #11 and low expertise at #6.

#9 Growing Domestic Live Event Revenue

The success of 2015 was extracting more revenue from WWE fans per ticket in both the North American and International markets. Average NA live event attendance has been flat for years, so generating more revenue was a significant success in 2015. While low expertise respondents ranked this #4, both medium & high expertise put this in the bottom third (#10 and #11 respectively).

#10 Launching the WWE Network in China

The ranking for this initiative reflected very different thoughts on the feasibility/opportunity of WWE Network in China. High expertise respondents ranked this #10 while Low & Medium put it higher (#8 and #7). China remains the last major marketplace without access to the WWE Network though the barriers to entry are phenomenally rigid.

#11 Growing WWEShop Revenue

High expertise and Medium expertise respondents both ranked this #9 while low expertise respondents ranked it #12. Utilizing Amazon UK as an European distribution partner. Q4'15 hit record levels for online orders. It will be interesting to see if WWE is able to tie WWE Network profiles to WWEShopping options in the future - providing more seamless data integration options and improved recommendation mechanisms.

#12 Outside Investment Projects

We don't hear a lot about investment projects until either they go bust (and WWE takes a write-off) or WWE starts screaming about TOUT every week on Raw. The exception has been the TapouT joint-venture with ABG. It's a recasting the brand from MMA wear to lifestyle fitness. In the past, investments in companies like Phunware or touring attraction Marvel Ventures, has been buried in financial documents or briefly mentioned on conference calls. TapouT will be a far more visible project which will include utilizing WWE superstars as models. All three expertise groups ranked this initiative similarly - #11 (low), #13 (medium), #12 (high).

#13 Growing Venue Merchandise

WWE actually started a new live event project in 2015 where they allowed fans to order venue merchandise from their phone while at their seat and pick it up on their way of out of the arena. While high expertise fans saw a little more potential in this revenue stream (#10 rank), this initiative was #12 and #13 for medium/low expertise respondents. It may surprise a casual observer that Venue Merchandise generated over $22 million in revenue in 2015 which was more than traditional PPV, digital Media, Home Entertainment or WWE Studios.

#14 Growing WWE Studios Revenue

After a decade of projects from producing, distributing, co-financing and partnering, WWE Studios (formerly WWE Films) has remained a separate division on WWE's books. There have been shifts in strategy to move low-budget, low-investment, distribution-centric models. In 2015, WWE began their new partnership with Warner Bros and has continued to leverage their brands (Scooy Doo, Flintstones) for kid-friendly WWE movies. However, the positive ROI on most projects has been minimal outside of made-for-TV fare. WWE has yet to integrate their film catalog with their over-the-top streaming network. Overall, WWE Studios was ranked as a last or second-last priority by all three categories of expert respondents.

#15 Additional Home Entertainment Revenue

While there may still be some demand for Home Entertainment, especially rare content in collector formats, the overall trajectory for WWE Home Entertainment has been downwards-sloping for five years. The core unit is still DVDs - not BluRays, and the combination of the WWE Network on-demand availability and the lack of untapped directions have contributed to a stagnant sector. Similar to WWE Studios, Home Entertainment ranked last or second-to-last in each of the groups.

WWE NETWORK


The next question looked at WWE Network characteristics and offered voters the option of rating each high (score 2.0), medium (score 1.0) or low (score 0.0).

Overall, the top five initiatives were:

  1. Adding back catalog content to the WWE Network Library
  2. Additional tierary Live Event specials (Beast in the East, King of the Ring, Roadblock)
  3. Enhanced Searching Options
  4. Cutting down on simultaneous users
  5. Expanded external WWE Network awareness/advertising campaigns
These rankings were generally similar among the high expertise respondents - Cutting down on simultaneous users, other live events (outside of PPVs), expanding WWE Network awareness/advertising, enhancing search options and adding back catalog all had scores at 1.4 or higher. 

Medium expertise respondents were only passionate about adding back catalog and enhancing the search options. Low expertise respondents felt strongly about other live events and back catalog. 

Daily Live Content & WWE Films on the WWE Network were supported more by "high expertise" respondents than other groups. NXT Programming expansion was not a popular option among any group. The high expertise group felt very strongly about reducing number of simultaneous users - no doubt a measure they believed would spurn additional account signups from the free-loaders.

WWE NETWORK PROJECTIONS

The question was, "How many subscribers will WWE announce the day after WrestleMania?"

Respondents were given the option of choosing "paid subscribers" and/or "total subscribers (including free)". WWE announced in early March that new subscribers would be able to watch WrestleMania for free as part of their free month trial. These numbers were collected after this promotion was announced and should reflect that information in their estimates.

Paid Subscriber Number
Average: 1,379,264
Median: 1,416,500
Min: 1,000,000
Max: 1,600,000

High Expertise Avg: 1,422,167
Medium Expertise Avg: 1,379,403
Low Expertise Avg: 1,250,000

Paid Subscriber day after WM - Weighted judgment: 1,378,038

Total Subscriber Number
Average: 1,697,012
Median: 1,684,000
Min: 1,400,000
Max: 2,150,000

High Expertise Avg: 1,705,500
Medium Expertise Avg: 1,705,025
Low Expertise Avg: 1,670,800

Total Subscriber day after WM - Weighted judgment: 1,677,913

For perspective, here is the "paid subscriber" numbers for the past 8 quarters:

qtr
ending
paid subscribers
as of qtr end
domestic
paid subs.
international
paid subs.
avg paid subs
over quarter
12/31/15
1,217,000
  940,000   277,000    1,237,000
9/30/2015
1,233,100
990,200
242,900
1,173,000
6/30/2015
1,156,100
939,300
216,800
1,215,170
3/31/2015
1,327,000
1,131,000
196,000
927,000
12/31/2014
816,000
772,000
44,000
721,000
9/30/2014
731,400
702,900
28,500
723,200
6/30/2014
699,750
699,750
-
665,000
3/31/2014
495,000
495,000
-
147,000

On April 7, 2014, WWE announced they had 667,287 subscribers.

We do not know the exact number of subscribers for WrestleMania 31, but it's interesting to note that in the week between 3/31/14 and 4/7/14, WWE had added over 172,000 "domestic" subscribers.

WWE FREE MONTHS

Lastly, I had asked respondents on their opinion on the question, "Should WWE continue offering free 1-month subscriptions to new users?"

Answers were predominately split into two groups:

  • "Yes - but only in months outside of blockbuster events such as WrestleMania, Royal Rumble or Summer Slam." - 18 votes
  • "Yes - they are a streaming service like Netflix or Hulu or HBO Go. It's part of the industry model." - 10 votes
The "Not Blockbuster" group was 85% of the high expertise group, 50% of the medium expertise group and 67% of the low expertise group. 

I suspect, but don't know for sure, that age may also have played a role in the response to this question. 

Looking at home country for respondents, 6 out of 7 "high expertise" respondents chose "outside of blockbuster months" - included "did not identify country", European and North American voters. Among "medium expertise", the vote was split 6-6 with North Americans going 50/50, Europeans going 75% "not blockbuster" and "did not identify country" voting 2-0 for "industry model". In low expertise, the vote was 6-3 in favor of Blockbuster but North Americans were 1-1 split, Europeans were 2-0 for "outside blockbuster" and "did not identify country" (East Timor?) chose 3-2 for "outside Blockbuster".

SEE THE DATA

For those interested in seeing the raw data used in this survey, please see my Google document.

Wednesday, March 02, 2016

What I wrote/did February 2016

Since I work on a little different projects but I don't always post about them in the same place, I figured I'd try to recap each month some of my favorite datapoints/articles/tidbits that I worked on each month.

HERE IS FEBRUARY 2016

Wrestlenomics.com:

2/24/2016 -- WWE Q4 Results, podcasts, odds & ends

SeekingAlpha.com:

2/10/2016 -- Predictions For WWE Q4 Revenue (a primer on WWE results including a list of very pertinent questions at the end)

2/24/2016 -- Does Shane McMahon's Return To Television Include A Corporate WWE Position? (a look at YOD, Shane McMahon and whether he will return to WWE as a corporate executive)

My SA article about YOD/WWE was later quoted in a NYPost article published 2/25/16 Shane McMahon’s return to WWE ‘Raw’ fuels talk of C-suite role:

But Chris Harrington, who covers the financials of professional wrestling for Wrestlenomics Radio, called Shane’s possible return to WWE’s executive suite “a tantalizing puzzle piece” in light of the company’s designs on China.
“He has spent years focused on the issue of how do you generate real revenue with Chinese OTT media,” Harrington wrote Wednesday in a piece for Seeking Alpha. “That’s a topic where WWE needs an expert.”
Sadly, this quote did not make the print version.

WrestlingObserver.com:

2/11/2016 -- KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM WWE'S 2015 Q4, FULL '15 FINANCIAL RESULTS (my article cover 2015 results)

2/11/2016 -- WOL: FREE SHOW TALKING DANIEL BRYAN, WWE NETWORK NUMBERS, MORE! (quick run-in to talk about WWE results)

2/12/2016 -- WOL: CHRIS HARRINGTON ON WWE FINANCES, DR. LUCHA, NEWS ON KEVIN RANDLEMAN AND MORE! (interview with Bryan Alvarez & Mike Sempervive on the WWE 2015 reuslts)

2/24/2016 -- WOL: SHANE MCMAHON UPDATE, CHINA COMPANY, TONS OF NEWS AND MORE! (interview with Bryan Alvarez & Mike Sempervive on Shane McMahon's YOD company)

Voicesofwrestling.com:

2/12/2016 -- WRESTLENOMICS RADIO: WWE Q4 EARNINGS REPORT (30 minute podcast covering Q4 results and clips from WWE Conference Call)

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

WWE Q4 Results, podcasts, odds & ends

I've done several podcasts about WWE Q4/CY 2015 results:

I wrote a "primer" on WWE revenue for Seeking Alpha that was published right before WWE Q4 results: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3885096-predictions-wwe-q4-revenue

I also wrote a full report on the WWE Q4 results for F4Wonline that was published right after WWE Q4 results: http://www.f4wonline.com/wwe-news/key-takeaways-wwes-2015-q4-full-15-financial-results-207441

Assorted odds & ends from the Annual Report and my Twitter



"Our creative team develops compelling&complex characters&weaves them into dynamic storylines that combine physical&emotional elements." pg5


"NXT has produced current main roster stars such as Seth Rollins, Bray Wyatt, Kevin Owens, and Sasha Banks." (2015 WWE 10-K, page 7)
"As of Feb-2016,we had approx 840 employees.Headcount excludes our Superstars&Divas,who are independent contractors." (pg8) Feb-2014 was 761


Our failure to retain or continue to recruit key performers could lead to a decline in the appeal of our storylines and the popularity of our brand of entertainment, which could adversely affect our operating results.
Our success depends, in large part, upon our ability to recruit, train and retain athletic performers who have the physical presence, acting ability and charisma to portray characters in our live events, video programming (including our television, WWE Network and other programming) and films. We cannot guarantee that we will be able to continue to identify, train and retain these performers. Additionally, throughout our history, performers from time to time have stopped working for us for any number of reasons, and we cannot guarantee that we will be able to retain our current performers either during the terms of their contracts or when their contracts expire. Our failure to attract and retain key performers, an increase in the costs required to attract and retain such performers, or a serious or untimely injury to, or the death of, or unexpected or premature loss or retirement for any reason of, any of our key performers could lead to a decline in the appeal of our storylines and the popularity of our brand of entertainment.  Scheduling conflicts for talent services may also affect certain productions.  Any of the foregoing issues could adversely affect our operating results.

"For instance, as television delivery moves to 4K technology, the Company could face higher costs of delivering its televised content."
Our businesses entail certain risks relating to privacy norms and regulations.    
We and our partners collect certain data supplied by our fans including WWE Network subscribers.  We utilize this data in certain ways including our marketing efforts. We face complex legal obligations internationally regarding the manner in which we treat and use such information.  Unintentional noncompliance by us or our partners of these regulations could have an adverse effect on our business. If we were to disclose or use data about our fans in a manner that is objectionable to them or is contrary to applicable law, our business reputation could be adversely affected.  We could also face potential legal claims that could impact our operating results.  We expect this risk to continue as our business evolves and as we expand internationally.



Corporate & Other:
Revenues consist of amounts earned from talent appearances.  Expenses are categorized and presented into two categories comprised of Corporate Support and Business Support. Corporate Support expenses primarily include our corporate general and administrative functions.  Business Support expenses include our sales and marketing functions, include our international sales offices, and talent development function, including the costs associated with our WWE Performance Center, as well as business strategy and data analytics support. Additionally, Corporate and Other includes all intersegment eliminations recorded in consolidation.
 Only places where WWE Network isn't OTT service is Canada, Malaysia (Astro) & Middle East (OSN) so I think those countries.



Television revenues, which include revenues generated from television rights fees and advertising, increased by $54.4 million, or 31%, in 2015 as compared to 2014.  Television rights fees in 2015 include approximately $42.8 million in incremental revenues associated with certain key television distribution agreements, which became effective in the fourth quarter of 2014 or the first quarter of 2015.  The increase in revenue was also attributable to the relaunch of Tough Enough, which aired 10 episodes during 2015 and did not take place in 2014.  The Company also recognized incremental revenues in 2015 associated with our streaming service offerings on Hulu.  Television OIBDA as a percentage of revenues increased to 42% in 2015 as compared to 35% in 2014, primarily driven by higher revenues, partially offset by an increase in the costs incurred to produce television programming.


In 2015, WWE spent $36.2M for "non-live programming" (Total Divas, Tough Enough, WWE Network shows). 2014: $20.9M. 2016 range: $35M-$45M.




Net Revenues – Cost of Revenues = Profit Contribution
Profit Contribution  -  SG&A – D&A = Operating Income
Operating Income + D&A = OIBDA

Friday, January 22, 2016

Some notes on WWE House Shows 2015

I took all of the house show attendance numbers published in the WON and split them into US/Canada and all other (Int'l includes Puerto Rico in this scenario).I was curious how 2015 was trending, particularly in Q4. As always, this is going to be a snapshot of attendance and certainly won't tie out exactly with WWE's financial reporting (where they don't break out house shows) but it ought to be directionally accurate.This is also being calculated differently than how Dave might be do his monthly comparisons, so I don't know if it will tie out there either.There's about a zillion disclaimers I could give. The difference in 2015 could be attributed to lots of things. TV ratings are down so perhaps interest is down. Cena did less house shows. Top stars are few and far between and some got hurt. Ticket prices have been going up. This doesn't include NXT events. This doesn't include any TV tapings (including Tribute to the Troops). I only compared cities where I had a "baseline" from prior years. If the baseline was one visit, then it's not so hard to be far above or far below. I used a combination of the city that Dave listed and the CageMatch results to reconcile whether WWE was going back to the same city or not. Going back to 2012-2013 means that we're still talking about the era of split brand house shows, so that can influence the numbers. What time of the year the tour is going on can influence the numbers (i.e. the Nov-Dec is usually hot while June can be low. Int'l tours are usually april & nov which is why those numbers were combined with other months.Thought others might be interested in what I found.

Monday, January 04, 2016

Most matches in WWE and Injuries/Out

I've been looking at the relationship over the last decade of wrestlers with "most matches in WWE" and their injury/absence in the following year. Red indicates they left the company.

2006:

  • Cena: most  (165); 10/07 (Torn Pec)
  • Edge: 2nd most (152); 7/07 (Torn left Pec)
  • Triple H: 5th most  (138); 1/07 (Torn Right Quad)



2007: 

  • Jeff Hardy: 3rd most (139); 3/08 - 60 days suspension
  • Randy Orton: 5th most (131); 6/08 broke Clavicle 


2008:

  • Kane: 2nd most matches in 2008 (154); did not wrestle between 4/28/09 and 6/30/09.


2009:

  • CM Punk: Most matches in 2009 (185); recovering from arm injury in July 2010; did not wrestle between 10/25/2010 and 12/25/2010.



2010:

  • Big Show: 6th most matches in 2010 (176);  did not wrestle from 7/18/11 to 10/7/11 (fractured Show's fibula)



2011:

  • Randy Orton: Most matches in 2011 (211); suspended 60 days on May 30 for second violation of company's Substance Abuse and Drug testing Policy
  • John Cena: 2nd most matches in 2011 (202); arm injury - did not wrestle from 9/18/12 to 10/30/12
  • Alberto Del Rio: 3rd most matches in 2011 (199); torn groin muscle - did not wrestle from 
  • The Miz: 5th most matches in 2011 (194); did not wrestle between 5/29/12 and 7/14/12



2012:

  • Sheamus: Most matches in 2012 (220); tore his labrum in August 2013 and missed rest of the year
  • The Big Show: 2nd most matches in 2012 (216); did not wrestle from 5/22/13 to 8/10/13
  • Kofi Kingston: 4th most matches in 2012 (202); elbow injury - did not wrestle from 5/29/13 to 8/4/13
  • Kane: 5th most matches in 2012 (199); only wrestled once between 8/19/13 and 12/25/13 on 10/28/13 RAW


2013: 

  • Daniel Bryan: most matches in 2013 (228); neck injury & did not wrestle after 5/6/14 for the rest of the year
  • Roman Reigns: 6th most matches in 2013 (204); hernia meant did not wrestle between 9/22/14 to 12/15/14
  • Ryback: 7th most matches in 2013 (202); hernia meant Ryback did not wrestle between 8/19/14 and 10/26/14



2014: 

  • Cesaro: most matches in 2014 (214) - rotator cuff injury in November 2015
  • Seth Rollins: 2nd most matches in 2014 (198); ACL/MCL injury on Nov 4, 2015
  • Jey Uso: 6th most matches in 2014 (184); shoulder injury - did not wrestle between 3/30/15 and 11/1/2015
  • Goldust: 7th most matches in 2014 (179); shoulder injury - did not wrestle between 4/19/15 and 11/21/2015



This trend since 2011 may raise some questions for the performers with most matches for 2015 - particularly Ambrose, Reigns, Neville, Cesaro, Big E, Harper and Kofi.

Saturday, January 02, 2016

Estimating WWE Network subscriptions in 2016

As we close the books on 2015, we shall return to that central paradox which vexes all wrestlemetricians - can we accurate predict WWE Network subscriptions moving forward?

Let's start, as always, by breaking down the numbers that we know.

There's two important metrics which WWE reports each quarter:
  1. Number of paid WWE Network subscribers as of quarter end
  2. Average of paid WWE Network subscribers across over the quarter
These two numbers can diverge significantly. For instance, during Q1 2015, WWE had (1) 1.327M subscribers as of March 31 but only averaged (2) 927,000 subscribers from January 1 through March 31. However, the variation between these two numbers was much lower (±5%) during subsequent quarters.

As we look at the historic adoption rates, there's several variables which appear to influence subscriber numbers:
  • How long has it been since the service was available domestically? [2/24/2014]
  • How long has it been since the service was available internationally (outside of UK/Ireland)? [8/12/2014]
  • How long has it been since the service was available in the UK/Ireland? [1/13/2015]
  • When [was]/[will be the next] WrestleMania?
Moving forward, it's possible that the new influx of WWE Network launches (India, Japan, Germany) will merit their own "launch" date variable. However, as those launches were scheduled for Q4'2015 and Q1'2016, it's not part of our current data set. Likewise, if WWE ever manages a serious WWE Network in China launch, that would probably deserve a separate variable as well.

So far, we really only have seven datapoints (Q1'2014 through Q3'2015). If we're doing a regression, that's going to limit the maximum number of variables we should include to six or less.

datepaid subscribers domestic international qtr avg paid
9/30/2015
1,233,100
990,200
242,900
1,173,000
6/30/2015
1,156,100
939,300
216,800
1,215,170
3/31/2015
1,327,000
1,131,000
196,000
927,000
12/31/2014
816,000
772,000
44,000
721,000
9/30/2014
731,400
702,900
28,500
723,200
6/30/2014
699,750
699,750
-
665,000
3/31/2014
495,000
495,000
-
147,000

Let's start by isolating the domestic numbers.

datepaid subs dom intl dom %
3/31/2014
495,000
495,000
-
100.0%
5/15/2014
665,000
665,000
-
100.0%
6/30/2014
699,750
699,750
-
100.0%
8/15/2014
723,200
709,110
14,090
98.1%
9/30/2014
731,400
702,900
28,500
96.1%
11/15/2014
721,000
687,514
33,486
95.4%
12/31/2014
816,000
772,000
44,000
94.6%
2/14/2015
927,000
833,548
93,452
89.9%
3/31/2015
1,327,000
1,131,000
196,000
85.2%
5/15/2015
1,215,700
1,011,931
203,769
83.2%
6/30/2015
1,156,100
939,300
216,800
81.2%
8/15/2015
1,173,000
947,485
225,515
80.8%
9/30/2015
1,233,100
990,200
242,900
80.3%

I've filled in the mid-point for each quarter with the "quarterly average paid subscriber" numbers. Also, I've calculated the domestic subscriber number as the mid-point between the domestic percentage from each quarter-end. Domestic is important because it's been a constant since the start. International had huge growth spurts - once when the original global roll-out began (8/12/14) and once when the UK/Ireland came online (January 2015).




There's two trends at play. There's the general growth throughout the year and the accelerated growth (and decline) around WrestleMania.

There's a general trend of growth outside of WrestleMania: about 20,700 new domestic subscribers each month.

So, we can estimate what WWE Domestic paid subscriptions will be in Q4'2015, Q2'2016, Q3'2016, Q4'2016.

Estimated (using current trendline)
  • 12/31/15: 1,040,500 domestic subscribers
  • 06/30/16: 1,164,500 domestic subscribers
  • 09/30/16: 1,227,000 domestic subscribers
  • 12/31/16: 1,289,500 domestic subscribers
Depending on what percentage you assume, you can estimate the international subscriptions too. Q1'15 was 85% domestic. Q2'15 was 81% domestic. Q3'15 was 80% domestic. 

Let's assume that 80% is about the mix -- we'll assume Q4'15 is about 79.5% and Q4'16 will be about 78.7%.  Then, international subscriptions would be:

Estimated (using 20-21% estimated international mix)
  • 12/31/15: 268,500 international subscribers
  • 06/30/16: 307,500 international subscribers
  • 09/30/16: 328,000 international subscribers
  • 12/31/16: 349,000 international subscribers

ESTIMATED

datepaid subscribers domesticinternational  
12/31/2016
 1,638,500
 1,289,500 349,000
9/30/2016
 1,555,000
 1,227,000 328,000
6/30/2016
1,472,000
 1,164,500 307,500
12/31/2015
 1,309,000
 1,040,500 268,500



The next question is what's going to happen around WrestleMania in Q2'2016?

The growth from 5/15/14 (estimated) from 3/31/14 was about 34%.
The growth from 2/14/15 (estimated) to 3/31/15 was about 35%.

Let's assume that 3/31/2016 is about 35% higher than 2/15/16; that would be about 1,446,500 domestic subs.  International subs would be around 377,500. We'll assume that 5/15/2016 is half-way between the 3/31/16 and 6/30/16 numbers.

That brings us to this estimate:

date  paid subs   dom   intl   dom % 
3/31/2014
         495,000
      495,000
               -  
100.0%
6/30/2014
         699,750
      699,750
               -  
100.0%
9/30/2014
         731,400
      702,900
        28,500
96.1%
12/31/2014
         816,000
      772,000
        44,000
94.6%
3/31/2015
      1,327,000
   1,131,000
      196,000
85.2%
6/30/2015
      1,156,100
      939,300
      216,800
81.2%
9/30/2015
      1,233,100
      990,200
      242,900
80.3%
10/15/2015
      1,235,220
      988,176
      247,044
80.0%
12/31/2015
      1,308,898
   1,040,574
      268,324
79.5%
2/14/2016
      1,349,541
   1,071,536
      278,005
79.4%
3/31/2016
      1,824,178
   1,446,573
      377,605
79.3%
5/15/2016
      1,648,356
   1,305,498
      342,858
79.2%
6/30/2016
      1,472,088
   1,164,422
      307,666
79.1%
8/15/2016
      1,513,575
   1,195,724
      317,851
79.0%
9/30/2016
      1,555,167
   1,227,026
      328,140
78.9%
11/15/2016
      1,596,864
   1,258,329
      338,535
78.8%
12/31/2016
      1,638,667
   1,289,631
      349,036
78.7%

So, based on our current trendlines:
  • 1.31M subs for 12/31/15 (above the 1.233M mark for 9/30/15) and above the 1.2M that WWE had originally said. (Let's assume they have a successful surge in subscriptions from the WWE Network prepaid card subscriptions).
  • 1.57M subs for FY 2016 (compared to 1.256M in FY 2015, +25% growth)
The real question is whether it's reasonable to expect domestic WWE Network paid subscriptions to continue to grow despite the ratings stagnation/decline in 2015. Is this service still attracting new subscribers? Or will they increasingly be looking at international markets (Germany, Japan came online in January 2016) for the growth. Is a 35% swell for WM really realistic considering the much larger base in FY16? And will WWE continue to hold those subscribers for the rest of the year? Can WWE really manage 30% growth in such a rebuilding year?

In the past, we saw a lot more stagnation from post-WM to end of the year (10% growth in FY'14 from Q2 to Q4; 11% growth in FY'15 from Q2 to Q4). This model has only about 11% growth for FY'16.

Analysis by Chris Harrington (chris.harrington@gmail.com) - Twitter: @mookieghana