WWE/NJPW Goodness/Badness - Allocating BEST/WORST WON Match Voting

Here are the 55 events with poll results that were published in the Wrestling Observer between December 1, 2014 and November 30, 2015 (in order of most to least votes):

• 04/06/15: WWE WRESTLEMANIA 31 -- 465 UP / 25 MIDDLE / 8 DOWN
• 02/02/15: WWE ROYAL RUMBLE -- 91 UP / 152 MIDDLE / 219 DOWN
• 01/12/15: NEW JAPAN WRESTLE KINGDOM 9 -- 373 UP / 0 DOWN
• 07/27/15: WWE BATTLEGROUND -- 173 UP / 57 MIDDLE / 78 DOWN
• 05/04/15: WWE EXTREME RULES -- 114 UP / 89 MIDDLE / 46 DOWN
• 12/22/14: WWE TLC -- 60 UP / 78 MIDDLE / 101 DOWN
• 03/02/15: WWE FAST LANE -- 50 UP / 92 MIDDLE / 96 DOWN
• 11/30/15: WWE SURVIVOR SERIES -- 71 UP / 71 MIDDLE / 82 DOWN
• 08/31/15: WWE SUMMERSLAM -- 175 UP / 41 MIDDLE / 8 DOWN
• 06/22/15: WWE MONEY IN THE BANK -- 160 UP / 20 MIDDLE / 38 DOWN
• 08/31/15: WWE NXT TAKEOVER -- 206 UP / 1 MIDDLE / 0 DOWN
• 02/23/15: WWE NXT TAKEOVER RIVALS -- 191 UP / 7 MIDDLE / 0 DOWN
• 06/08/15: WWE ELIMINATION CHAMBER -- 128 UP / 44 MIDDLE / 16 DOWN
• 12/22/14: NXT R EVOLUTION -- 182 UP / 0 DOWN
• 09/28/15: WWE NIGHT OF CHAMPIONS -- 130 UP / 39 MIDDLE / 10 DOWN
• 05/25/15: WWE PAYBACK -- 101 UP / 52 MIDDLE / 16 DOWN
• 11/02/15: WWE HELL IN A CELL -- 148 UP / 18 MIDDLE / 0 DOWN
• 10/12/15: WWE IN MADISON SQUARE GARDEN -- 82 UP / 53 MIDDLE / 19 DOWN
• 07/13/15: WWE BEAST FROM THE EAST -- 132 UP / 14 MIDDLE / 0 DOWN
• 04/13/15: NEW JAPAN INVASION ATTACK -- 146 UP / 0 DOWN
• 07/13/15: NEW JAPAN DOMINION -- 141 UP / 2 MIDDLE / 0 DOWN
• 06/01/15: NXT UNSTOPPABLE -- 101 UP / 30 MIDDLE / 11 DOWN
• 10/19/15: NXT TAKEOVER RESPECT -- 138 UP / 2 MIDDLE / 0 DOWN
• 02/23/15: NJPW NEW BEGINNING IN OSAKA -- 101 UP / 24 MIDDLE / 4 DOWN
• 07/27/15: NEW JAPAN G-1 FIRST NIGHT -- 84 UP / 29 MIDDLE / 5 DOWN
• 08/17/15: AAA TRIPLEMANIA -- 6 UP / 4 MIDDLE / 96 DOWN
• 02/23/15: NJPW NEW BEGINNING IN SENDAI -- 94 UP / 4 MIDDLE / 0 DOWN
• 06/29/15: ROH BEST IN THE WORLD PPV -- 96 UP / 0 DOWN
• 09/28/15: ROH ALL-STAR EXTRAVAGANZA -- 74 UP / 6 MIDDLE / 5 DOWN
• 03/09/15: ROH 13TH ANNIVERSARY SHOW -- 78 UP / 7 MIDDLE / 0 DOWN
• 10/19/15: NEW JAPAN KING OF PRO WRESTLING -- 73 UP / 12 MIDDLE / 0 DOWN
• 08/24/15: G-1 CLIMAX A BLOCK FINALS -- 76 UP / 7 MIDDLE / 1 DOWN
• 05/25/15: ROH GLOBAL WARS -- 66 UP / 18 MIDDLE / 0 DOWN
• 12/15/14: ROH FINAL BATTLE -- 68 UP / 6 MIDDLE / 5 DOWN
• 08/24/15: G-1 CLIMAX FINALS -- 77 UP / 0 DOWN
• 03/23/15: NEW JAPAN CUP FINALS -- 70 UP / 0 DOWN
• 06/15/15: NEW JAPAN BEST OF SUPER JUNIORS FINALS -- 70 UP / 0 DOWN
• 11/16/15: NEW JAPAN POWER STRUGGLE -- 68 UP / 0 DOWN
• 10/06/15: NEW JAPAN DESTRUCTION IN KOBE -- 66 UP / 1 MIDDLE / 0 DOWN
• 08/03/15: NEW JAPAN G-1 FROM HIROSHIMA -- 67 UP / 0 DOWN
• 05/11/15: NEW JAPAN DONTAKU -- 59 UP / 4 MIDDLE / 0 DOWN
• 08/17/15: NEW JAPAN G-1 AT KORAKUEN HALL 8/9 -- 60 UP / 1 MIDDLE / 0 DOWN
• 08/24/15: G-1 CLIMAX B BLOCK FINALS -- 57 UP / 0 DOWN
• 08/10/15: G-1 IN NAGOYA -- 27 UP / 19 MIDDLE / 4 DOWN
• 09/28/15: CMLL ANNIVERSARY SHOW -- 49 UP / 1 MIDDLE / 0 DOWN
• 08/03/15: ROH DEATH BEFORE DISHONOR -- 46 UP / 3 MIDDLE / 0 DOWN
• 01/26/15: NEW JAPAN FANTASTICA MANIA FIRST KORAKUEN HALL SHOW -- 26 UP / 21 MIDDLE / 0 DOWN
• 01/26/15: NEW JAPAN FANTASTICA MANIA SECOND KORAKUEN HALL -- 41 UP / 0 DOWN
• 03/16/15: NEW JAPAN CUP QUARTERFINALS -- 41 UP / 0 DOWN
• 10/12/15: TNA BOUND FOR GLORY -- 13 UP / 14 MIDDLE / 13 DOWN
• 12/15/14: NEW JAPAN TAG TOURNEY FINALS -- 15 UP / 21 MIDDLE / 3 DOWN
• 08/17/15: NEW JAPAN G-1 IN NAGOYA 8/8 -- 15 UP / 19 MIDDLE / 3 DOWN
• 08/10/15: G-1 IN OSAKA -- 37 UP / 0 DOWN
• 03/16/15: NEW JAPAN CUP FIRST ROUND -- 35 UP / 0 DOWN
• 07/06/15: TNA SLAMMIVERSARY -- 8 UP / 14 MIDDLE / 4 DOWN

Next, we can look at which matches were voted "BEST MATCH" and "WORST MATCH" on each event. And specifically, who wrestled in those matches.

For instance:

WWE FAST LANE POLL RESULTS
Thumbs up 50 (21.0%) / In the middle 92 (38.7%) / Thumbs down 96 (40.3%)
BEST MATCH POLL: Roman Reigns vs. Daniel Bryan 200; Rusev vs. John Cena 10; Kidd & Cesaro vs. Usos 8 (218 positive votes)
WORST MATCH POLL: Nikki Bella vs. Paige 99; Bad News Barrett vs. Dean Ambrose 78; Goldust vs. Stardust 50 (227 negative votes)

This event had 14 people involved in the matches receiving best/worst match votes. Let's allocate out of 100 positive points and 100 negative points based on number of votes.

Roman Reigns & Daniel Bryan get 100*(200/218)=91.7 points while Rusev & Cena get 4.6 points and Tyson Kidd/Cesaro/Usos get 3.7 points.
Nikki & Paige get -100*(99/227)=-43.6 points while Barrett & Ambrose get -34.4 points and Rhodes brothers get -22.0 points.

Next, we want to adjust for the quality of the event. In this case, Fast Lane had 50 thumbs up, 92 thumbs in the middle and 96 thumbs down. We'll count the "thumbs in the middle" as half-votes for each thumbs up and thumbs down. That leaves us with 96 adjusted thumbs up and 142 adjusted thumbs down. For each wrestler, we'll multiply the "adjusted thumbs up" x "positive points" and "adjusted thumbs down" x "negative points".

The idea is that if you're in the best match at WrestleMania, that's worth more than being in the best match in Payback. What determines which events are more important than others? The number of overall votes. Likewise, if you were in a bad match, but overall the PPV was mostly enjoyed, you're not punished greatly.

So, for Fastlane, Roman & Bryan would end up with 8,803 adjusted positive thumb points (91.7 x 96) and Nikki & Paige would have 6,191 adjusted negative thumb points (43.6 x 142).

We can do this across all of the shows for a single company. Then, if we divide by total points in each bucket, we can allocate what percentage of "goodness" or "badness" in that company was driven by each wrestler.

Goodness
Top 80% WWE
Seth Rollins 13.8%
John Cena 12.8%
Brock Lesnar 9.9%
Kevin Owens 9.1%
Roman Reigns 8.8%
Sasha Banks 6.1%
Bayley 4.5%
Neville 4.2%
Finn Balor 3.5%
Dean Ambrose 2.7%
Sami Zayn 2.6%
Undertaker 2.4%

Top 80% NJPW
Kota Ibushi 15.3%
Shinsuke Nakamura 11.8%
Hiroshi Tanahashi 11.4%
AJ Styles 10.5%
Kazuchika Okada 8.3%
Tomohiro Ishii 6.3%
Hirooki Goto 5.8%
Tomoaki Honma 5.3%
Tetsuya Naito 2.7%
Kyle O’Reilly 2.4%

Top 80% ROH
Young Bucks 23.6%
Jay Briscoe 7.0%
Kyle O’Reilly 6.3%
Bobby Fish 5.6%
Roderick Strong 5.6%
AJ Styles 5.6%
Jay Lethal 5.4%
Adam Cole 4.0%
Matt Taven 3.9%
Michael Bennett 3.9%
Hanson 3.1%
Mark Briscoe 3.1%

Badness
Bottom 80% of WWE
Nikki Bella 10.2%
Paige 7.8%
Brie Bella 5.4%
Rumble/Battle Royal 5.4%
Ryback 5.0%
Bad News Barrett 3.2%
Naomi 2.9%
Natalya 2.8%
Kane 2.6%
The Big Show 2.5%
Dean Ambrose 2.4%
Konnor 2.2%
Viktor 2.2%
Charlotte 2.1%
Rusev 2.0%
Seth Rollins 1.8%
Stardust 1.7%
Big E 1.7%
Kofi Kingston 1.7%
Billy Gunn 1.7%
The Road Dogg 1.7%
John Cena 1.6%
Brock Lesnar 1.3%
Tamina 1.3%
Dolph Ziggler 1.3%
Goldust 1.2%
Sheamus 1.2%
Erick Rowan 1.2%
R-Truth 1.2%

Bottom 80% of NJPWHiroyoshi Tenzan 7.8%
Doc Gallows 5.7%
Toru Yano 4.8%
Rob Conway 4.8%
Satoshi Kojima 4.5%
Bad Luck Fale 4.2%
Yujiro Takahashi 3.9%
Tetsuya Naito 3.4%
Cody Hall 3.3%
Captain New Japan 2.9%
Shinsuke Nakamura 2.8%
Jushin Liger 2.7%
Mascara Dorada 2.6%
Jax Dane 2.5%
Jay White 2.5%
Tiger Mask 2.4%
Chase Owens 2.4%
Kazuchika Okada 2.3%
Michael Elgin 2.2%
Ryusuke Taguchi 1.9%
Manabu Nakanishi 1.8%
Karl Anderson 1.8%
Polvora 1.7%
Hiroshi Tanahashi 1.7%
Stigma 1.7%

Bottom 80% of ROHMoose 22.8%
Silas Young 22.6%
Gedo 11.3%
Takaaki Watanabe 11.3%
RD Evans 10.0%

As with anything that's wrestlenomics, it's hardly science. The best matches for one company on a single show might pale in comparison to a mid-card match on another company's show. We're not using star ratings or anything else.

Being in the majority-voted best match at WrestleMania is going to drive Roman/Seth/Brock significantly. Perhaps there would be a need to add a logarithm in there somewhere to normalize that a bit. It's possible I should just group ROH/NJPW together or separate NXT/WWE. There's a lot of options for improvement.

WWE StatsSeth Rollins: BEST (10 matches / 108,775 pts) -- WORST (4 matches / -5,533 pts)
John Cena: BEST (10 matches / 100,802 pts) -- WORST (7 matches / -4,769 pts)
Brock Lesnar: BEST (5 matches / 78,077 pts) -- WORST (1 match / -3,915 pts)
Kevin Owens: BEST (9 matches / 71,932 pts) -- WORST (3 matches / -1,558 pts)
Roman Reigns: BEST (8 matches / 68,937 pts) -- WORST (2 matches / -1,724 pts)
Sasha Banks: BEST (5 matches / 47,924 pts) -- WORST (2 matches / -1,721 pts)
Bayley: BEST (3 matches / 35,736 pts) -- WORST (1 match / -578 pts)
Neville: BEST (4 matches / 32,947 pts) -- WORST (4 matches / -2,164 pts)
Finn Balor: BEST (3 matches / 27,830 pts) -- WORST (2 matches / -58 pts)
Sami Zayn: BEST (2 matches / 20,668 pts) -- WORST ( matches / pts)
Undertaker: BEST (2 matches / 18,721 pts) -- WORST (2 matches / -918 pts)
Cesaro: BEST (4 matches / 13,933 pts) -- WORST (1 match / -164 pts)
Dean Ambrose: BEST (7 matches / 20,923 pts) -- WORST (2 matches / -7,328 pts)
Becky Lynch: BEST (2 matches / 15,549 pts) -- WORST (2 matches / -3,562 pts)
Tyson Kidd: BEST (3 matches / 11,889 pts) -- WORST (1 match / -164 pts)
Randy Orton: BEST (4 matches / 13,124 pts) -- WORST (3 matches / -1,522 pts)
Daniel Bryan: BEST (2 matches / 10,705 pts) -- WORST ( matches / pts)
Big E: BEST (3 matches / 12,425 pts) -- WORST (7 matches / -5,120 pts)
Kofi Kingston: BEST (3 matches / 12,425 pts) -- WORST (7 matches / -5,120 pts)
Luke Harper: BEST (3 matches / 8,707 pts) -- WORST (2 matches / -3,198 pts)
Dolph Ziggler: BEST (4 matches / 8,942 pts) -- WORST (5 matches / -3,841 pts)
Chris Jericho: BEST (3 matches / 4,976 pts) -- WORST ( matches / pts)
Bray Wyatt: BEST (3 matches / 6,425 pts) -- WORST (4 matches / -1,909 pts)
Alberto Del Rio: BEST (1 match / 1,810 pts) -- WORST (1 match / -62 pts)
Chad Gable: BEST (1 match / 812 pts) -- WORST (1 match / -14 pts)
Jason Jordan: BEST (1 match / 812 pts) -- WORST (1 match / -14 pts)
Diego: BEST (1 match / 889 pts) -- WORST (1 match / -164 pts)
Fernando: BEST (1 match / 889 pts) -- WORST (1 match / -164 pts)
Braun Strowman: BEST (1 match / 1,384 pts) -- WORST (1 match / -749 pts)
Sting: BEST (1 match / 999 pts) -- WORST (1 match / -568 pts)
Triple H: BEST (1 match / 999 pts) -- WORST (1 match / -568 pts)
Jushin Liger: WORST (1 match / -7 pts)
Aiden English: WORST (2 matches / -17 pts)
Simon Gotch: WORST (2 matches / -17 pts)
Tye Dillinger: WORST (2 matches / -18 pts)
Dash Wilder: WORST (1 match / -29 pts)
Scott Dawson: WORST (1 match / -29 pts)
Apollo Crews: WORST (2 matches / -46 pts)
Samoa Joe: WORST (3 matches / -66 pts)
Bull Dempsey: WORST (1 match / -209 pts)
Enzo Amore: WORST (1 match / -481 pts)
Colin Cassady: WORST (1 match / -481 pts)
Curtis Axel: WORST (1 match / -574 pts)
Brooke: WORST (1 match / -578 pts)
Emma: WORST (1 match / -578 pts)
Wesley Blake: WORST (3 matches / -640 pts)
Buddy Murphy: WORST (3 matches / -640 pts)
Sin Cara: BEST (1 match / 889 pts) -- WORST (5 matches / -1,602 pts)
Kalisto: BEST (1 match / 889 pts) -- WORST (5 matches / -1,602 pts)
Rhyno: BEST (1 match / 812 pts) -- WORST (3 matches / -1,584 pts)
Mark Henry: WORST (1 match / -863 pts)
Bo Dallas: WORST (2 matches / -979 pts)
Baron Corbin: BEST (1 match / 812 pts) -- WORST (6 matches / -1,800 pts)
Jack Swagger: WORST (1 match / -1,044 pts)
Tyler Breeze: WORST (3 matches / -1,144 pts)
Xavier Woods: WORST (2 matches / -1,273 pts)
Sheamus: BEST (3 matches / 2,355 pts) -- WORST (5 matches / -3,682 pts)
Darren Young: BEST (1 match / 889 pts) -- WORST (3 matches / -2,368 pts)

Damien Sandow: WORST (2 matches / -1,434 pts)
Jimmy Uso: BEST (1 match / 352 pts) -- WORST (2 matches / -1,969 pts)
Jey Uso: BEST (1 match / 352 pts) -- WORST (2 matches / -1,969 pts)
R-Truth: BEST (1 match / 1,898 pts) -- WORST (3 matches / -3,577 pts)
Charlotte: BEST (2 matches / 4,538 pts) -- WORST (7 matches / -6,413 pts)
Titus O'Neil: BEST (1 match / 889 pts) -- WORST (4 matches / -2,998 pts)
D-von Dudley: WORST (4 matches / -2,272 pts)
Bubba Ray Dudley: WORST (4 matches / -2,272 pts)
The Big Show: BEST (2 matches / 5,191 pts) -- WORST (3 matches / -7,649 pts)
The Miz: WORST (3 matches / -2,486 pts)
AJ Lee: WORST (2 matches / -2,834 pts)
Stardust: BEST (1 match / 1,898 pts) -- WORST (5 matches / -5,230 pts)
Alicia Fox: WORST (2 matches / -3,562 pts)
Erick Rowan: WORST (2 matches / -3,635 pts)
Goldust: WORST (2 matches / -3,757 pts)
Tamina: WORST (3 matches / -3,842 pts)
Rusev: BEST (2 matches / 1,192 pts) -- WORST (5 matches / -5,894 pts)
Billy Gunn: WORST (1 match / -5,118 pts)
The Road Dogg: WORST (1 match / -5,118 pts)
Viktor: WORST (5 matches / -6,672 pts)
Konnor: WORST (5 matches / -6,672 pts)
Bad News Barrett: BEST (2 matches / 2,558 pts) -- WORST (5 matches / -9,592 pts)
Kane: WORST (3 matches / -7,878 pts)
Natalya: WORST (1 match / -8,459 pts)
Naomi: WORST (4 matches / -8,852 pts)
Ryback: WORST (8 matches / -15,082 pts)
Brie Bella: BEST (1 match / 588 pts) -- WORST (6 matches / -16,330 pts)
Rumble/Battle Royal: WORST (2 matches / -16,307 pts)
Paige: WORST (9 matches / -23,672 pts)
Nikki Bella: WORST (13 matches / -30,698 pts)

WON voters aren't big fans of Nikki Bella's matches on the card (as compared to the rest of the matches).

She had 13 different matches nominated for "WORST MATCH" this voting year:

WWE WRESTLEMANIA 31 WORST A.J. & Paige vs. Bella Twins 177
WWE TLC POLL RESULTS WORST Nikki Bella vs. A.J. Lee 31
WWE SUMMERSLAM POLL RESULTS WORST Divas three-team match 64
WWE ROYAL RUMBLE POLL RESULTS WORST Bellas vs. Paige & Natalya 119
WWE PAYBACK POLL RESULTS WORST Snuka & Naomi vs. Bellas 98
WWE NIGHT OF CHAMPIONS POLL RESULTS WORST Charlotte vs. Nikki Bella 24
WWE MONEY IN THE BANK POLL RESULTS WORST Nikki Bella vs. Paige 32
WWE IN MADISON SQUARE GARDEN WORST Team Bellas vs. Team PCB 72
WWE HELL IN A CELL POLL RESULTS WORST Charlotte vs. Nikki Bella 13
WWE FAST LANE POLL RESULTS WORST Nikki Bella vs. Paige 99
WWE EXTREME RULES POLL WORST Nikki Bella vs. Naomi 68
WWE ELIMINATION CHAMBER POLL RESULTS WORST Nikki Bella vs. Paige vs. Naomi 118
WWE BEAST FROM THE EAST POLL RESULTS WORST Nikki vs. Paige vs. Snuka 73The Bella army will not be pleased with this.

Conversly, Sasha Banks fared well:

WWE NXT TAKEOVER RIVALS POLL RESULTS BEST Women’s four-way 40
WWE NXT TAKEOVER POLL RESULTS BEST Bayley vs. Sasha Banks 182
WWE BATTLEGROUND POLL RESULTS BEST Charlotte vs. Banks vs. Brie Bella 8
NXT UNSTOPPABLE POLL RESULTS BEST Sasha Banks vs. Becky Lynch 134
NXT TAKEOVER RESPECT POLL RESULTS BEST Bayley vs. Sasha Banks 129
The most middle-of-the-road guys? Probably Luke Harper, Dolph Ziggler and Sheamus.

NJPW Stats
Kota Ibushi: BEST (8 matches / 66,085 pts) -- WORST (2 matches / -115 pts)
Shinsuke Nakamura: BEST (8 matches / 50,753 pts) -- WORST (2 matches / -1,071 pts)
Hiroshi Tanahashi: BEST (9 matches / 49,141 pts) -- WORST (3 matches / -665 pts)
AJ Styles: BEST (6 matches / 45,081 pts) -- WORST (1 match / 0 pts)
Kazuchika Okada: BEST (7 matches / 35,983 pts) -- WORST (3 matches / -886 pts)
Tomohiro Ishii: BEST (6 matches / 27,035 pts) -- WORST (1 match / 0 pts)
Hirooki Goto: BEST (8 matches / 25,009 pts) -- WORST (3 matches / -531 pts)
Tomoaki Honma: BEST (4 matches / 22,722 pts) -- WORST (5 matches / -536 pts)
Kyle O’Reilly: BEST (3 matches / 10,452 pts) -- WORST (1 match / -9 pts)
Tetsuya Naito: BEST (4 matches / 11,524 pts) -- WORST (4 matches / -1,302 pts)
Kushida: BEST (3 matches / 10,327 pts) -- WORST (3 matches / -599 pts)
Katsuyori Shibata: BEST (4 matches / 9,261 pts) -- WORST (2 matches / -115 pts)
Nick Jackson: BEST (3 matches / 5,075 pts) -- WORST (1 match / -9 pts)
Matt Jackson: BEST (3 matches / 5,075 pts) -- WORST (1 match / -9 pts)
La Sombra: BEST (2 matches / 4,157 pts)
Michael Elgin: BEST (3 matches / 4,880 pts) -- WORST (1 match / -831 pts)
Togi Makabe: BEST (2 matches / 4,169 pts) -- WORST (2 matches / -469 pts)
Atlantis: BEST (1 match / 3,650 pts)
Ultimo Guerrero: BEST (1 match / 3,650 pts)
Bobby Fish: BEST (2 matches / 3,452 pts) -- WORST (1 match / -9 pts)
Yuji Nagata: BEST (2 matches / 3,337 pts) -- WORST (4 matches / -165 pts)
Trent Baretta: BEST (2 matches / 2,922 pts) -- WORST (1 match / -9 pts)
Rocky Romero: BEST (2 matches / 2,922 pts) -- WORST (1 match / -9 pts)
Kenny Omega: BEST (2 matches / 2,695 pts) -- WORST (1 match / -140 pts)
Volador Jr: BEST (1 match / 2,392 pts)
Karl Anderson: BEST (3 matches / 2,985 pts) -- WORST (5 matches / -679 pts)
Kazushi Sakuraba: BEST (1 match / 2,883 pts) -- WORST (5 matches / -608 pts)
Alex Shelley: BEST (1 match / 2,152 pts) -- WORST (1 match / 0 pts)
Yoshi-Hashi: BEST (1 match / 1,765 pts) -- WORST (1 match / 0 pts)
Rey Cometa: BEST (1 match / 1,708 pts)
Cavernario Barbaro: BEST (1 match / 1,708 pts)
Sho Tanaka: BEST (1 match / 957 pts) -- WORST (3 matches / -79 pts)
Yohei Komatsu: BEST (1 match / 957 pts) -- WORST (4 matches / -209 pts)
Mascara Dorada: BEST (1 match / 1,521 pts) -- WORST (3 matches / -1,003 pts)
Shelton Benjamin: WORST (1 match / 0 pts)
Davey Boy Smith Jr: WORST (1 match / 0 pts)
Takashi Iizuka: WORST (1 match / 0 pts)
Takaaki Watanabe: WORST (1 match / 0 pts)
Triton: WORST (1 match / 0 pts)
Lance Archer: WORST (1 match / 0 pts)
Jeff Jarrett: WORST (1 match / 0 pts)
Mikey Nicholls: WORST (1 match / 0 pts)
Naomichi Marufuji: WORST (1 match / 0 pts)
Shane Haste: WORST (1 match / 0 pts)
Rumble/Battle Royal: WORST (1 match / 0 pts)
Juice Robinson: WORST (3 matches / -129 pts)
Amber Gallows: WORST (1 match / -200 pts)
Maria Kanellis: WORST (1 match / -200 pts)
Tama Tonga: WORST (7 matches / -233 pts)
Michael Bennett: WORST (4 matches / -274 pts)
Matt Taven: WORST (4 matches / -274 pts)
Mephisto: WORST (1 match / -385 pts)
Stuka Jr: WORST (1 match / -385 pts)
Desperado: WORST (1 match / -394 pts)
BUSHI: WORST (1 match / -394 pts)
Taichi: WORST (1 match / -394 pts)
David Finlay: WORST (4 matches / -629 pts)
Stigma: WORST (1 match / -665 pts)
Polvora: WORST (2 matches / -665 pts)
Mistico: WORST (2 matches / -665 pts)
Bad Luck Fale: BEST (1 match / 913 pts) -- WORST (10 matches / -1,610 pts)
Manabu Nakanishi: WORST (6 matches / -698 pts)
Ryusuke Taguchi: WORST (6 matches / -738 pts)
Chase Owens: WORST (3 matches / -901 pts)
Tiger Mask: WORST (6 matches / -927 pts)
Jay White: WORST (5 matches / -941 pts)
Jax Dane: WORST (1 match / -956 pts)
Jushin Liger: WORST (6 matches / -1,031 pts)
Captain New Japan: WORST (10 matches / -1,114 pts)
Cody Hall: WORST (7 matches / -1,247 pts)
Doc Gallows: BEST (1 match / 785 pts) -- WORST (10 matches / -2,178 pts)
Yujiro Takahashi: WORST (8 matches / -1,485 pts)
Satoshi Kojima: WORST (8 matches / -1,720 pts)
Hiroyoshi Tenzan: BEST (1 match / 1,246 pts) -- WORST (9 matches / -2,979 pts)
Rob Conway: WORST (3 matches / -1,834 pts)
Toru Yano: WORST (11 matches / -1,839 pts)

I expected Yano would fare poorly with 11 nominated matches.

NJPW NEW BEGINNING IN OSAKA WORST Okada & Sakuraba & Yano vs. Fale & Tonga & Yujiro 13
NEW JAPAN WRESTLE KINGDOM 9 POLL RESULTS WORST Eight man tag 97
NEW JAPAN KING OF PRO WRESTLING POLL RESULTS WORST Nakamura & Yano & Sakuraba vs. Bullet Club 46
NEW JAPAN G-1 IN NAGOYA 8/8 WORST Tetsuya Naito vs. Toru Yano 15
NEW JAPAN G-1 FROM HIROSHIMA POLL RESULTS WORST Toru Yano vs. Hiroyoshi Tenzan 8
NEW JAPAN CUP QUARTERFINALS WORST Kota Ibushi vs. Toru Yano 16
NEW JAPAN CUP FIRST ROUND WORST Toru Yano vs. Hiroshi Tanahashi 18
NEW JAPAN CUP FINALS WORST Sakuraba & Yano vs. Tanahashi & Captain 16
G-1 CLIMAX FINALS POLL RESULTS WORST Yano & Ishii & Sakuraba vs. Fale & Yujiro & Tonga 42
G-1 CLIMAX B BLOCK FINALS POLL RESULTS WORST Bullet Club 10 man tag 22
G-1 CLIMAX A BLOCK FINALS POLL RESULTS WORST Toru Yano vs. Bad Luck Fale 36
However, I was surprised to see Tenzan actually had more points.

NJPW NEW BEGINNING IN SENDAI WORST Hiroyoshi Tenzan vs. Rob Conway 8
NJPW NEW BEGINNING IN OSAKA WORST Conway & Owens vs. Liger & Tenzan 55
NEW JAPAN WRESTLE KINGDOM 9 POLL RESULTS WORST Six man tag 66
NEW JAPAN TAG TOURNEY FINALS WORST Tenzan & Kojima vs. Conway & Dane 17
NEW JAPAN KING OF PRO WRESTLING POLL RESULTS WORST Eight man tag match 13
NEW JAPAN INVASION ATTACK POLL RESULTS WORST Honma & Tenzan & Kojima vs. Hall & Tonga & Yujiro 8
NEW JAPAN G-1 FROM HIROSHIMA POLL RESULTS WORST Toru Yano vs. Hiroyoshi Tenzan 8
NEW JAPAN G-1 FIRST NIGHT POLL RESULTS WORST Hiroyoshi Tenzan vs. Doc Gallows 47
G-1 CLIMAX FINALS POLL RESULTS WORST TenCozy & Captain vs. White & Nagata & Nakanishi 17
Kota Ibushi really stands out and it helps he and Nakamura were in a huge match at the biggest NJPW event Wrestle Kingdom 9 (worth 23,957 points).

NJPW NEW BEGINNING IN OSAKA BEST Kota Ibushi vs. Tomoaki Honma 56
NEW JAPAN WRESTLE KINGDOM 9 POLL RESULTS BEST Shinsuke Nakamura vs. Kota Ibushi 237
NEW JAPAN TAG TOURNEY FINALS BEST Eight-man tag 27
NEW JAPAN INVASION ATTACK POLL RESULTS BEST A.J. Styles vs. Kota Ibushi 104
NEW JAPAN G-1 FROM HIROSHIMA POLL RESULTS BEST Kota Ibushi vs. A.J. Styles 63
NEW JAPAN G-1 FIRST NIGHT POLL RESULTS BEST Hiroshi Tanahashi vs. Kota Ibushi 117
NEW JAPAN CUP FINALS BEST Kota Ibushi vs. Tetsuya Naito 67
G-1 IN NAGOYA POLL RESULTS BEST Kota Ibushi vs. Hiroyoshi Tenzan 14

Model says WWE Network at 9.99 should have 1.1M in subs; it does.

WWE Statistics

START	END	ATTENDANCE	EVENTS	PPV BUYS	RAW RATING	PPV REV
1/1/2014	12/31/2014	1,931,000	318	2,292,000	3.4	45.2
1/1/2013	12/31/2013	1,924,100	321	3,838,000	3.4	82.5
1/1/2012	12/31/2012	1,854,100	314	4,023,000	3.3	83.6
1/1/2011	12/31/2011	1,976,500	321	3,842,100	3.6	78.3
1/1/2010	12/31/2010	2,155,700	327	3,631,100	3.5	70.2
1/1/2009	12/31/2009	2,383,800	342	4,490,200	3.7	80.0
1/1/2008	12/31/2008	2,203,300	319	5,034,400	3.4	91.4
1/1/2007	12/31/2007	2,115,300	308	5,200,800	3.7	94.3
5/1/2006	12/31/2006	1,312,180	246	3,287,300	3.9	53.4
5/1/2005	4/30/2006	1,713,840	300	6,241,100	4.0	94.8
5/1/2004	4/30/2005	1,616,875	325	5,280,800	3.7	85.5
5/1/2003	4/30/2004	1,646,974	329	5,604,000	3.8	95.3
5/1/2002	4/30/2003	1,815,177	327	5,378,100	3.7	91.1
5/1/2001	4/30/2002	2,032,754	237	7,135,464	4.6	112.0
5/1/2000	4/30/2001	2,449,800	212	8,010,400	5.0	128.2
5/1/1999	4/30/2000	2,485,100	206	6,884,600	6.2	106.4
5/1/1998	4/30/1999	2,273,701	199	5,365,100	5.0	81.0
5/1/1997	4/30/1998	1,576,112	218	2,936,100	3.1
5/1/1996	4/30/1997	1,060,740	199	2,252,200	2.4
5/1/1995	4/30/1996	931,954	247	2,831,700	3.0
5/1/1994	4/30/1995	1,163,259	347	1,868,900	3.0

WWE Attendance per Event

Average Revenue per PPV Buy

Essentially, WWE was getting about half of the PPV revenue prior to the WWE Network launch.

From a monthly basis, WWE PPVs stats were:

START	RATING	PRICE	AVG	MONTHLY
1/1/2013	3.4	$42.99	5,994	319,833
1/1/2012	3.3	$41.56	5,905	335,250
1/1/2011	3.6	$40.76	6,157	320,175
1/1/2010	3.5	$38.67	6,592	302,592
1/1/2009	3.7	$35.63	6,970	374,183
1/1/2008	3.4	$36.31	6,907	419,533
1/1/2007	3.7	$36.26	6,868	433,400
5/1/2006	3.9	$32.49	5,334	410,913
5/1/2005	4.0	$30.38	5,713	520,092
5/1/2004	3.7	$32.38	4,975	440,067
5/1/2003	3.8	$34.01	5,006	467,000
5/1/2002	3.7	$33.88	5,551	448,175
5/1/2001	4.6	$31.39	8,577	594,622
5/1/2000	5.0	$32.01	11,556	667,533
5/1/1999	6.2	$30.91	12,064	573,717
5/1/1998	5.0	$30.20	11,426	447,092

If we look at these variables, we can regress on Rating, ln(price), avg attendance and estimate average monthly PPV buys.

2015 Stats

Rating = 3.3 (first 9 months of 2015)

ln(Price) = ln($9.99) = 2.30

Avg Attendance = 5,770 (first 10 months of 2015)

Estimated Monthly PPV Buys at $9.99 = 1,057,840

Actual average paid subscribers for WWE Network in 2015? 1,106,000.

Error? -4.3%.

The concept of 3M to 4M monthly paid subscribers for WWE Network seems very difficult without a huge increase in the event attendance and Raw ratings.

WWE 2015: The financial update

Last year, I wrote a piece for the "Cubed Circle Newsletter" looking at the WWE's 2014 financials. (See pages 8-10 here: http://www.cubedcirclewrestling.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/cubed_circle_newsletter_2014_yearbook.pdf )

I started working on the 2015 article. Here's the current draft:

Financially speaking, the story of WWE in 2015 was how it wasn’t 2014. Thank god.

Between Q4’13 and Q4’14, WWE posted five consecutive negative quarters of operating income.

Things turned around in Q1’15 for a variety of reasons. There was a first quarter WrestleMania. WWE started receiving new revenue from a bevy of domestic and international television rights agreements. WWE finally expanded the WWE Network distribution to the U.K. marketplace.

In the parlance of business, 2014 was a “transition year” for World Wrestling Entertainment.

Already, WWE has posted three quarters of positive double-digit OIBDA for 2015. Final OIBDA (operating income before depreciation & amortization – a sort of “profit” calculation) for 2015 should be somewhere north of $60 million. That’s a huge improvement over 2013 and 2014 numbers.

While that may sound terrific, it’s worth reminding readers that from 2007 to 2010 adjusted OIBDA bounced between $78 million and $94 million. WWE started investing in what would eventually become the WWE Network in 2011.

Simply put, 2015 is a positive development. It is certainly not close to record WWE profits.

Digging deeper, let’s examine what is propelling the turn-around for WWE.

First of all, WWE is driving more revenue from their live events.

This is mostly in the form of extracting more revenue per person (higher ticket prices, new travel and VIP packages) rather than actually expanding the overall number of people attending each show.

However, it is worth commenting on how NXT has emerged as a notable live event highlight for 2015. The ascension of NXT as an independent event capable of drawing large crowds when they piggy-back on major WWE PPV event weekends is among WWE’s most noteworthy achievements this year.

WWE Network paid subscriptions in 2015 are much higher than they were in 2014.

It helps that WWE cut-costs in Q3’14, hastily rolled out the WWE Network internationally in August 2014 and added UK/Ireland to the mix in January 2015 (at a 50% price premium). Using WWE’s numbers, they would need to achieve an average of 1.36M paid subscribers for 2016 to return to the levels of profitability that WWE had in the late 2000s under their traditional PPV model. As it stands, WWE will probably end 2015 at an average of 1.1M paid subscribers. It’s a respectable number. However, the company seems to be crawling closer and closer to the artificial interest ceiling for subscribers. Breaking beyond two million paid monthly subscribers still seems like quite a reach.

WrestleMania 32 will undoubtedly attract new subscribers in 2016. The decision in November 2015 to finally add multitude of archival territorial footage (NWA, SMW, AWA) should please many fans. Yet, it’s difficult to assess the ultimate WWE Network growth potential.

Most of the accounts are still registered domestically (80% of WWE Network accounts have U.S. billing addresses) and this year has seen a wild decline with live Raw ratings. Can WWE really expect to keep growing the WWE Network when their best promotional vehicle, Monday Night Raw, is losing traction?

The surprise of 2015 has been the continued moderate success of pay-per-view. WWE generates about the same amount of revenue from PPV that they do from segments such as Venue Merchandise or WWEShop (about $21 million). PPV business is larger than established divisions such as Home Entertainment (DVDs/BluRays - a long-shrinking business) or Digital Media (WWE’s golden calf; big social media numbers but tiny revenue now that webcast PPV aren’t available). PPV is still profitable, even though the majority of the buys are through international distributors at a much lower price than historic US prices.

Television rights continue to fuel the WWE’s growth. That’s how it is. That’s unlike to change in the near future.

The bundle of deals that WWE negotiated in 2013/2014 have built-in escalators. WWE will take home more revenue every year regardless of whether ratings grow or ratings shrink. It’s a pretty sweet deal.

The only hitch is when partners don’t pay.

That was the issue with Thailand’s CTH. In that situation, WWE took the company to court to demand their $23 million in TV fees. Extracting such a bounty from an international corporation can be a lengthy and exhausting process. While the Thai deal only represents a small portion of the overall throng of new TV deals (US, Canada, UK, UAE, Mexico, India), the precedent is unnerving.

The WWE Network was recently rolled out in India at a $9.99 price-point. WWE didn’t include any special mobile-phone support and live PPVs are blacked out for 24 hours. It doesn’t appear WWE is making much effort to gain huge traction in some of these markets.

In January 2016, WWE Network will expand into Japan and Germany. Moving into Deutschland is a worthwhile venture, but it is unclear how many consumers will be join the WWE Network fresh and how many customers will merely switch over existing “domestic” accounts.

There’s only a handful of markets left for the WWE Network to launch. They include the Philippines (where WWE had to sue their TV partner Solar in 2013 over missed TV rights fees), Thailand (where WWE is suing TV partner CTH) and China.

One of WWE Chief Financial Officer George Barrios’ favorite narratives has been how India is the future. In 2016, I expect that tune will switch to talking about the endless possibility of China.

Yet, navigating the Chinese media landscape requires precise dealings in a bureaucratic albatross. Media providers must agree to state oversight (some say outright censorship) to gain licenses and distribution.

There is a family connection. Shane McMahon left WWE to join a media company called “You on Demand”. YOD touts themselves as a “leading multi-platform entertainment service company delivering premium content, including leading Hollywood movie titles, to customers across China via subscription and transactional streaming services.”

It’s completely fathomable that WWE will end up partnering with YOD or possibly even outright buying the company in order to pursue their dreams of achieving WWE Network distribution in China. It’s a noble mission, but my assessment is that will more remain an aspirational talking point for WWE conference calls rather than an executed 2016 project.

With television negotiations locked up and television ratings slipping, WWE’s motive in 2015 was to focus investors on their year-over-year WWE Network subscription growth (an easy target when you’re moving around WrestleMania timing, comparing domestic-only to internationally-distributed platforms) and bragging about their Twitter followers, YouTube video views and FaceBook fans.

The vague but omnipresent “monetize digital and social media presence” objective remains a company mantra.

By adding together all of the accounts for each of the WWE’s superstars, the company loves to brag about their half-billion followers. Obviously, the true number of unique people with a ‘WWE-affinity' (to use the company’s phraseology) is certainly far lower.

The underlying thesis is solid – WWE will figure out a way to turn those eyeballs into dollars.

While they insist they aren’t rushing the initiatives, one wonders who exactly is leading this initiative.

WWE’s last Chief Digital Officer (Lou Schwartz) only lasted 5 months and left quietly in February 2015. Before him, we had Matthew Singerman, Lisa Fox Lee and Perkins Miller. With the WWE Network still in their infant phase, that’s a lot of leaders who have come and gone. What WWE needs is a steady, dedicated, knowledgeable hand leading the WWE Network initiative and separate guidance for their entire social media strategy.

The glory of the WWE business model is that they’ve got guaranteed revenue streams that won’t dip even when interest wanes. And they have a loyal fanbase which will continue to support their large event initiatives (such as WrestleMania and SummerSlam). It’s an environment where the company can afford some mistakes, and carry some unprofitable divisions (WWE Films, for instance).

However, a pat hand isn’t going to satisfy investors. WWE has been talking about reaching lofty subscriber goals of three to four million monthly paid subscribers. Meanwhile, the organic limit of steady-state demand seems to be more like 1.5M worldwide. Will new international markets fuel the demand? Will over-the-top streaming culture carry the service to record levels? Will targeting initiatives and innovative programming connect with the fanbase? Questions abound.

The last major narrative for 2015 is WWE’s legal conundrums.

The company has faced an onslaught of lawsuits from jilted investors (claiming WWE misrepresented NBCU television rights negotiations), to past performers over concussion-related injuries, to so-called “patent trolls” over technology used by the WWE.

So far, the company has dealt with the proceeding deftly. They were able to squash the “confidential informant” in the shareholder lawsuit. They were able to consolidate the concussion-claims and wrongful death lawsuits into a single case in the friendlier state of Connecticut. The hyperbolic nature of wrestlers mixed with lawyers inexperienced with the realm of sports entertainment has left a multitude of legal holes in many of the concussion-lawsuit filings.

While these lawsuits can be time-consuming and expensive, the latest developments indicate that WWE has firmly retained the upper-hand. WWE will not allow any case precedence to be set which would invalidate their “independent-contractor” relationship with their performers. They’ll settle long before things reach a courtroom. The company also does not want to be on the hook for any long-term medical liability due to wrestling-related injuries. The company will fight the concussion suits tough and nail. And thus far, WWE has outmaneuvered the plaintiffs.

WWE is willing to fight these cases for years. They will and they have grinded the proceeding to a halt. There are significant and far-reaching legal questions being discussed. However, as it stands, the assortment of wrestlers bringing these charges don’t have the legal counsel or the substantive standing that is necessary to affect far-reaching change in the pro-wrestling world. The risk to WWE is too high for the company not to dedicate serious resources to dismissing these cases.

WWE’s financial situation is strengthening. The WWE Network appears to be viable platform. While there have been some significant financial sacrifices to get to this point, WWE finally has locked down more guaranteed revenue (from TV rights contracts) than at any point in their history.

The dismal slide of live Raw ratings is alarming, but until we see the 2016 trends, it’s difficult to alarm investors in the wake of a changing television landscape.

WWE’s goal is to expand internationally. WWE wants to generate more and more revenue outside of North America. We’ve seen this strategy before with expansions in Europe and Latin America which didn’t fully take. Perhaps, the situation and leadership has evolved sufficiently that we’ll see a true fundamental shift.

If WWE can focus on growing the WWE Network, minimizing lawsuit burdens and monetizing their digital footprint, there is a rosy future awaiting the company.

Chris Harrington

chris.harrington@gmail.com

@mookieghana

Will the WWE exist in ten years?

Someone on the F4W/WON message board asked,

"Will the WWE Exist in Ten Years Based on Their Current Product?"

Here was my response:

WWE has set themselves up for a strong revenue generation from TV rights through 2018. They've rolled out their OTT network and keeping up with that element of the evolution of media consumption. They're dedicating themselves to having a strong social media presence and trying to "own" that space. I review their financials as closely as anyone and while I'm still largely pessimistic that they're under delivering what they could have, they're a long ways away from showing signs of the bottom falling out.

What are the five "trouble-spots" that I would see on the horizon? (This is not talking about the more general, "make new stars" advice.)

#1 - TV rights fees dry up and new markets don't emerge. CTH in Thailand was just a small deal, but WWE trumpeted the hell out of it when they signed in January 2014. It was seen as a harbinger of the massive fees WWE was going to get with their NBCU deal. Instead, the NBCU deal came in much lower than WWE had hinted it would and CTH has thus far not paid a cent of their 2014 or 2015 rights fees. While the TV rights money is "guaranteed" in theory, there's always the risk that people just don't pay and when it comes to getting money from companies based internationally, that can be a difficult battle. Likewise, if WWE pisses off marketplaces like India (where they just launched a stripped-down version of the WWE Network), they could endanger the renewal of their 3rd largest TV deal. When it comes to 2018, everyone can speculate but no one really knows what the landscape will look like. It's expensive running the WWE train and without TV rights fees and the corresponding global exposure, the ability of WWE to survive at its current size would be endangered. If WWE lost television coverage, that would obviously be an enormous blow.

#2 - WWE Network never takes off and instead subscription levels stagnate. After a year, having a million steady-state subscribers isn't an insignificant feat. However, after five years, WWE had better hope they can move far beyond that. Will fans grow weary of the back catalogue and disinterested in the current product? Will WWE manage to launch in a marketplace such as China? Will WWE Network subscriptions move beyond the 80/20 split (Domestic/Intl) to 50-50? WWE could always sell the Network operations to a third-party and instead just collect a licensing fee, so it's not like the WWE Network subscription stagnation (as a stand-alone product) instantly equals WWE doom. The service could be bundled with other offerings to make it a viable offering. Yet, that would require WWE to give up some control and this is their baby.

#3 - Leadership chaos post-VKM. Stephanie McMahon is gaining seasoning and experience as a corporate ambassador/executive. It's most likely that Wall Street would be happiest with a McMahon family at the helm into the next era. Shane might even come back if WWE decides to buy his company (You on Demand) for the purposes of securing Chinese Media Marketplace distribution. In many ways, George Barrios is truly the face of the WWE to the investors and analysts. It's clear he's angling for as much power & control over corporate strategy. Paul Levesque might understand how to run talent relations or creative, but he's still got a ways to go before he'd be a suitable head of the company. That said, he & Stephanie joined the WWE board of directors this year, so he's moving up the ranks and charming the right people.

#4 - Wacky Entertainment Projects break the bank. The WWE Films division has been mostly a money-losing venture with the occasional break-even project (like Miz's made-for-TV movies, Scooby Doo films) and a single hit (The Marine). Obviously, there's the cautionary tales of the WBF, The World Restaurant and XFL. Stubbornness can cloud judgment and expenses can balloon. Things such as the Performance Center are great (in theory), especially if they produce a new line of future superstars. However, there can be a significant cost associated, and eventually it comes time to reconcile your exploding "Corporate & Other" expense line with your diminishing profits.

#5 - WWE loses lawsuits. If WWE were to lose their shareholder TV rights lawsuit (which name many prominent executives in WWE as individual defendants) or the concussion lawsuit (or end up having to pay hefty fees to patent trolls), there could be a material financial impact on the WWE. Would it cripple the company? Unlikely. However, for a company as litigious and trial-adverse as WWE, it would be a significant blow and could really muddy the waters.

In almost every scenario, I don't see the development as a death-blow, but possible a severe wound. WWE could survive by taking on more partners and giving up some of their absolute control. The company needs to be careful they're not too reliant on borrowing money (for corporate aircraft, for WWE films division) when they're barely covering their dividend and spending so much on content production.

Yes, they'll exist. I don't see them dying in the next decade.

-Chris Harrington

chris.harrington@gmail.com

How many WWE Network subscriptions are needed to achieve PPV-level profitability?

Someone recently asked me, "How many subscriptions are needed to achieve the profitability levels that WWE had prior to launching the WWE Network?"

To answer that question, there's three pieces of information to gather:

1. What are we calling "pre-WWE Network profitability"?
2. What's the conversion from WWE Network subscriptions to WWE profitability?
3. Where are WWE Network subscriptions now?

1. Pre-WWE Network Profitability

WWE Financials

$WWE	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Net Revenues	485.7	526.5	475.2	477.7	483.9	484.0	508.0	542.6
OIBDA	77.7	83.4	91.5	94.0	52.0	63.2	30.4	(15.5)
Depreciation & Amortization	9.3	13.1	14.4	11.7	15.0	20.0	24.5	26.7
Operating Income	68.4	70.3	77.1	82.3	37.0	43.2	5.9	(42.2)

On February 24, 2014, the WWE Network launched domestically after years of discussion. 

Let's go back to the "glory days" for WWE profitability between 2008 and 2010.

While WWE did not publish "OIBDA", we can calculate an adjusted OIBDA (operating income before depreciation & amoritzation) by adding the D&A and OI. From 2008-2010, WWE averaged a little under $90M in adjusted OIBDA.

Therefore, let's set our target, annual pre-WWE Network profitability, at $90M.

For perspective, the latest guidance from WWE (in the Q3'15 earnings release) was that 2015 would end around $38M to $42M in Operating Income and adjusted OIBDA of $62M to $66M. Essentially, if Q4 goes according to WWE's projections, WWE will be back at the 2012 level of profitability. (Again, that's technically a pre-WWE Network year, though starting in 2011, WWE had already begun investing and spending money on developing what ultimately became the WWE Network.)

2. Converting WWE Network subscriptions to WWE Profitability metrics

The WWE Network is only a slice of the overall WWE business model. (There's live event revenue, television rights fees, licensing & merchandising revenue, WWE Studios, Digital Media and so on.)

Yet, WWE repeatedly insists that, "The level of WWE Network subscribers is a critical determinant of the Company’s projected future financial performance."

In fact, look at the "2016 Perspective" in the Third-Quarter 2015 filings:

2016 Perspective

Using Netflix growth as a potential benchmark, management would characterize an annual growth rate of 20% to 25% for WWE Network as very strong performance. If the average paid subscribers to WWE Network increased at a rate within this range in 2016, management currently estimates WWE’s overall revenue could grow approximately 5% - 10% driven primarily by the increase in network subscribers and the escalation of television rights fees. Management currently estimates that this level of revenue growth could result in 2016 Adjusted OIBDA of approximately $90 million to $100 million with no other changes to the Company’s operations.

Paraphrased: If WWE can achieve a 20-25% growth on 2015's average paid subscribers number, they would achieve adjusted OIBDA of $90M-$100M in 2016.
That begs the obvious question: what is 2015 average paid subscriber number?

3. WWE Network subscriptions today

WWE Network subscriptions

qtr ending	paid subscribers	domestic subs.	int'l subs.	qtr avg paid subs.	qtr gross additions	qtr churn	ytd avg paid
9/30/2015	1,233,000	990,000	243,000	1,173,000	453,000	(376,000)	1,106,000
6/30/2015	1,156,100	939,300	216,800	1,215,170	337,300	(508,400)	1,072,100
3/31/2015	1,327,000	1,131,000	196,000	927,000	795,000	(284,000)	927,000
12/31/2014	816,000	772,000	44,000	721,000	336,000	(251,000)	567,000
9/30/2014	731,359	702,883	28,476	723,174	286,000	(255,000)	514,652
6/30/2014	699,752	699,752	-	665,000	349,000	(144,000)	406,000
3/31/2014	495,000	495,000	-	147,000	519,000	(24,000)	147,000

We know that year-to-date (YTD) through Q3, the average number of paid WWE Network subscriptions in 2015 was 1,106,400. The unknown is how Q4 is going to perform.

Luckily, WWE did provide some guidance on how they believed they would end the year:

2015 Business Outlook 

For the fourth quarter 2015, the Company expects ending paid network subscribers of approximately 1.2 million, representing essentially flat results from the third quarter 2015

Therefore, let's assume that there is 1,200,000 paid WWE Network subscribers as of December 31, 2015. Assuming that average WWE Network paid subscriptions during Q4'15 was about 1,216,500 (halfway between 1.2M and 1.233M), then the average paid WWE Network subscribers for 2015 would be 1.133M.

WWE's earlier statement was that 20% growth (1.36M) to 25% growth (1.42M) in average paid WWE Network Subscribers would result in $90M to $100M in OIBDA.

The Answer?

This analysis suggests that to achieve pre-WWE Network OIBDA level of about $90M, WWE would need to average about 1,360,000 paid WWE Network subscribers in 2016.

Final Thoughts

If we start 2016 at 1.2M paid WWE Network subscribers, that's an increase of less than 14%. In terms of new markets, WWE is now available in India (though subscriber numbers are unlikely to be significant for a variety of reasons) and will be available in Japan and Germany starting in January 2016. Still, questions remains whether WWE can consistently grow subscriber numbers in 2016 in the wake of slumping ratings and a rash of superstar injuries.

Lastly, WWE's goal isn't to return to pre-WWE Network profitability, but to grossly exceed them. Contractually-obligated WWE Television Rights fees are the engine for WWE's growth.

In 2010, WWE earned $127M in Television Rights and Advertising Fees. From Q4'14 to Q3'15, WWE's Television segment has already earned $226M. That's more than a 75% increase in television rights revenue, and yet 2015 will be about $30M less OIBDA as compared to 2010. The natural escalation of key bundle of television rights for WWE will deliver $15M more in 2016 ($190M) than 2015 ($175M). 

The point being that WWE takes in $100M more in Television Revenue and $55M in WWE Network Revenue ($70M PPV in 2010 versus $125M in WWE Network Q4'14-Q3'15) to generate less 30% less OIBDA than five years ago. There's certainly been shifts in other segments (International Live Event revenue is down, licensing is down, magazine publishing division closed, home entertainment continues to slide). In 2010, WWE generated 3.63M PPV buys at $45/non-WM buy. In 2016, they'll need to generate the equivalent of 16.32M WWE Network monthly "buys" at $10/domestic sub (+350% the buys for +130% the revenue).

Analysis and Commentary by Chris Harrington (chris.harrington@gmail.com)

Barrios at Wells Fargo Securities Technology, Media & Telecom - November 2015

WWE CFO and Chief Strategy Officer George Barrios presented and answered questions today at the Wells Fargo Securities Technology, Media & Telecom conference in New York City.

My live-tweet coverage from the event:

Presentation materials link: http://ir.corporate.wwe.com/Cache/1001204397.PDF?Y=&O=PDF&D=&fid=1001204397&T=&iid=4121687

He's giving the "media eco-system" pitch with the three pillars. 

#1) Social
"We need to own social." 
"We feel really good about the job we've done over last few years" 

#2) Pay Eco-System 
(talking about securing the pay-tv contracts) 
(Core programming - Raw & SmackDown) 

a) Premium live content
b) Originals/Specials - "Swerved did really well on Network"
c) Library

#3) Direct to Consumer
We believe over time we can get to 3 to 4 million subscribers globally - Barrios 

Q&A

Q: Released earnings, better than expected.. Q4 guidance/2016. Any more color will give? Why not avg paid instead of quarter subs?

Barrios: We're still learning. The one thing you notice is the peak in Quarter 1, and a decline. We have a seasonal product (WrestleMania our Super Bowl). As we move forward, unlike a Netflix that grows sequentially, because of the seasonality inherent in the content we might see year-over-year growth but sequential declines. We'll see how it plans out in April. 

Investment Areas:
1) Content
2) Emerging Markets
3) Technology

1) Content - We see how much consumption there is;it creates an asset value. we're experimenting how much drives subscriptions? 

2) Emerging Markets - about 25% of the business outside of the US. 3rd largest market is India. See more people on ground in India, Middle East, Latin America, China. China has changed for willingness to pay rights fees for exclusivity to Western content. China may skip to digital content without pay-tv phase. Starting to invest in Chinese social media content (outside of YouTube, Facebook, etc.) 

3) technology - some of that is Network itself. Add new features to network to help acquisition and retention. Primarily in Data Analytics stack. Use data to drive thinking. We've got a rich data-set in the Network data in real time. Stitching together all of the disparate data elements - using Twitter, e-commerce, TicketMaster, YouTube, etc. We think it's worth it in the long term. 

On China: "no direct table table on china WWE Network launch" 

Q: Looking 5 years out, what does the entertainment landscape look like? 
A: More and more people are watching content "non-linearly except live content". Globally, the penetration and quality of broadband will improve. More and more content owners will have some element of their business direct to consumer. You hear a lot about skinny bundles, cord cutting, cord nevers - I think how you bundle will evolve - that makes sense, basic economic theory - the question is who is doing the bundling and what do they look like? I think there will be more choice. Where is the money? It will follow the eyeball. We can't control that element. We can control being incredibly strong and penetrated in the platform. That's why YouTube and FaceBook is strategic for us. 5 years ago FB and YT was at the CEO level with his direct reports giving him updates on what we wanted to do with that.  We're going to continue to drive the value of core programming Raw/SmackDown. We will have the choice for the best place for our audience and our shareholders for where we want to put our content. How does that all shake out?I don't think anyone knows.There's a lot of uncertainty. We can control being strong across board 

Barrios is talking about the long-tail value of the archive/library footage. "It's varied." 

Audience Q&A  

1) Balance Sheet Mgmt
2) Cash-Flow

A: We generate a significant amount of cash. We have a fairly plain-vanilla balance sheet.  Only debt is the corporate aircraft.  Return of cash to shareholders.  Given to transition, we've stayed away from talking about the future. We're a high dividend payer. We've stayed away from prognosticating around usage of cash. If you look historically, the company has been an aggressive return of capital. 

Churn?

A: In terms of churn, subscription businesses are akin to retail. It's a ground game. There's no silver bullet. It's lot of initiatives layered on top of each other. Tell future subscribers "here's what's coming" way ahead of time. Segmenting subscribers into cohorts. Target messaging to them. Adding watchlists. We're doing collections coming up. New payment methods - gift card (no CC required) at Walmart. A lot of little initiatives that you hope will reduce the churn. 

Let's say Netflix is a 10. We're probably a 3-4 now. Hope is 2-3 years from now, we'll be an 8 or 9. 

Five Narratives coming out of WWE’s Q3 earnings call

Links:

• WWE announced their Q3 earnings on Thursday, 10/29.
• I wrote an article at WO/F4W breaking down the key elements
• I also discussed the Q3 results with Bryan Alvarez and Mike Sempervive on Wrestling Observer Live
• See transcript of the conference call at Seeking Alpha.

·        TV Rights remain the engine of profitable growth

For all of 2014, WWE earned $176.7M in television rights (which was 91% growth over where the company was in 2007). After just three quarters of 2015, WWE is already at $175.5M. WWE’s built-in escalators in the television contracts guarantees that the key agreements will continue to deliver more and more revenue for new programming through 2018/2019. 

Meanwhile, the WWE Network continues to be bound to the Royal Rumble through WrestleMania boom, Q2-Q4 malaise. WWE would need to be willing to give up some WWE Network autonomy and sell stake/control of the WWE Network (probably to a major media OTT conglomerate like NBCU or MLB AM) before they would be able to deliver constantly rising WWE Network revenue numbers.

With stalwarts such as ESPN are in the middle trimming $100 million from their budget, already the narrative is moving from the “live sports are the DVR-proof bubble in a cord-cutting world” to “the heyday of giant television rights contracts for live sports may be over”. What media eco-system does WWE face when it’s time to renegotiate multiyear centamillion contracts in just a few years?

·        Wall Street was not impressed

Prior to the earnings announcement, WWE was trading at $20/share. Since 10/29, $WWE has been trading at $17-$18/share. Investors seem frustrated that WWE projected flat WWE Network numbers for Q4 (though that shouldn’t really have been surprising), lower-than-expected cash flow ($4M-$8M is half of what Wall Street expected) and exceptionally vague 2016 guidance on the WWE Network.

 “Regarding WWE Network, given the inherent uncertainty of this nascent and growing business, management will not provide guidance for 2016 subscriber levels.”

The WWE Network will launch in November in India and in Germany & Japan in January. WWE keeps insisting there are millions of households with a “WWE-affinity” and their service has the wherewithal to capture and retain millions of paid subscribers at the steady state. However, it will take some phenomenal growth (and retention) to move anywhere close to these lofty goals. Churn remains high (376,000 subscribers left the service in Q3’15 versus 453,000 subscriber additions) and doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. While WWE is running out of new markets for touting expansion, introducing new payment options (such as the 3-month prepaid cards at Walmart) may provide some important upside.

·        Rating Doom: ‘tis but a scratch!

While liveratings for Monday Night Raw have been in the doldrums in 2015 (reaching lowest levels since 1997), WWE is completely no-selling that they are concerned. When BTIG’s Brandon Ross asked about the rating slide (on both RAW and SmackDown), Chief Strategy and Financial Officer George Barrios just said that WWE doesn’t think about one metric in isolation like ratings but instead looks as other items such as “social media engagements” and that WWE believes they are “doing really, really well in the domestic pay-TV ecosystem compared to everyone else.”

As I discuss in my article at Wrestling Observer/Figure Four Online, there’s still a lot of people who care about ratings and television demographics including advertisers, NBCU and WWE themselves (since they need a new fanbase that will subscribe to the WWE Network, buy the superstar merchandise and attend the live events). The company’s story continues to be “win online, win at social media, win where the eyeballs are” and in time that will translate into money.

·        Is WWE Network going to be early Netflix?

The limited guidance that WWE was willing to share for the WWE Network in 2016 was generalizing the domestic growth trends for Netflix’s streaming service (21.5% from Q3’10 to Q3’15). Netflix was mentioned eleven times during the conference call and Barrios is always quick to point out that WWE has been intently studying all subscription services (and not just video-on-demand players).

Despite WWE’s attempts to cage the language and prevent unrealistic expectations (what had burned WWE in 2014 with the TV negotiations hype), the tone of most analysts on the call was that WWE was being too conservative with their estimates for 2016 since their service is available both in the United States (with 80% of the subscriber base) and abroad. There was a brief time in 2014 when WWE even used the tagline, “It’s just like Netflix, but better”. At this point, the prospect of explosive growth seems murky. Until the company cuts down on concurrent streaming/account sharing and the prime programming is available immediately on the WWE Network, it will be tough for WWE to accelerate their paid subscriber growth into the Netflix stratosphere.

·        Now, it’s China. (Thanks India!)

For the past year, expanding the WWE in India has been Barrios’ pet project. Already, the market has become the third-largest television rights deal. Starting today the WWE Network will be available in the Indian sub-continent marketplace (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives, and Afghanistan). However, pay-per-view programs will be blacked-out for the initial 24-hours, high price ($9.99 USD) and distribution technology (internet-connection required) suggests that adding India will hardly impact the overall WWE Network subscriber number at this time. However, launching the service does check a box on the “key objectives” list for 2015.

Now the story is going to be all about China. During the conference call, CFO Barrios talked about investing in China in 2016, re-evaluating their distribution strategy in the country and expanding their Shanghai office. There was specific talk about the latest Chinese five-year plan which included “a specific focus on sports and entertainment” along with an acknowledgement that there’s been a “tremendous amount of activity over the last 12 months” in the Chinese media marketplace. I have a feeling that we’ll be hearing a ton about the potential in China in 2016 from WWE. (Though exactly what WWE is doing and they are tracking against those plans will remain firmly in a cloud of mystery.) 

Analysis by Chris Harrington (@mookieghana) - chris.harrington@gmail.com